My gut feeling about the CPI being a "dud" and not giving that fast spike higher and quick reversal was right. There was a little movement up and down (maybe 10 points?) but by the open it was about flat. Then the drop started slowly as I also thought would happen... but I wasn't expecting the full retrace back up into the close.
That was a sneaky move for sure, but it doesn't mean the bears are dead. It only tells me that the market could want to hold up into the 3 day holiday weekend as Monday is closed for Martin Luther King day. The futures aren't closed that day so we could see a high put in on the 15th that gets reversed back down by the open on Tuesday.
That means today won't do much, maybe down a little or up a little but overall a "pause" day to close out the week looking good for the bulls. As for Monday I don't know if it's going to be a higher high then 12/28 or lower high, but by the open on Tuesday they should be back down so the cash market (SPX) doesn't make a new all time high.
I'm still very bearish here as all this chop up in this area is nothing but distribution in my opinion. I thought the drop today would hold and keep going but I was wrong, but on the bigger picture I think I'm right. And guessing on the pause day today is just that... a guess. We could also sell off again back down to the low from yesterday and lower? Meaning I'm not counting on the market holding up today. I could drop nicely as well.
Have a great weekend.