ES Morning Update January 24th 2024

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So far, so good. The market continues to hold its' ground and grind higher slowly. This could continue all week, and if it's more of a sideways move then I'd lean toward a top after the FOMC next Wednesday... like Friday the 2nd or Monday the 5th. But if we go up too much, like to take out 5000 by the end of this week, then I'll lean toward the top before the meeting, like maybe this Friday or next Monday the 29th.

I just have to let it play out and see how the technicals align up. There's really nothing to do but wait until this Friday as the earliest, or as late as Monday the 5th. Now "if" they do a last big squeeze up this week, and hit 5000+, then that will likely do it for the top. Otherwise I'll still look for the end of next week, or the following Monday.

Have a blessed day.

P.S.  How do I know this will be a down year?  Because it's already planned to be one.

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Geccko 23
Geccko 23
1 month ago

I think we put in the top sometime next week. We seem to be following the mid July 2023 pattern. We could put in an orthodox top in the next day or two. $nymo is still below 0 which is perplexing. We could see a couple of days of strong to decent breadth to get it above 0. The last few days might have been 4s and 5s in the 3rd wave of the 3rd.

My exhaustion indicator triggered for the SP 500 on the weekly this week. The two components met each other. The faster rising one probably needs to cross over the other to give a firmer signal. It’s already happened on the Dow which has suddenly become stuck in the mud. But it hasn’t in the Nasdaq.

The market topped out in early February for the 30 year cycle in 1994. I believe it dad as well in 1934, and 1904 but they weren’t major trend changes.

Geccko 23
Geccko 23
1 month ago
Reply to  Geccko 23

Dow topped at 380 in 1929 which could explain why it’s suddenly stuck.

SP topped at 337+ in 1987.

Nasdaq 100 at 4800 in 2000.

Dow is at 33800, SP at 4800 currently.

Geccko 23
Geccko 23
1 month ago
Reply to  Red

Looking at some of these Nasdaq stocks they look topped out. NVDA which is the Nasdaq right now is superextended. I did have some numerology and astro hits for the next couple of days. Venus has followed Mars to that special spot and it is a full moon tomorrow. And it’s the first Friday following a full moon since….. the anniversary.

Today was 59 trading days off the October low. It’s getting close to the fully extended max seen in other historical periods.

My exhaustion indicator on the daily is hitting on NVDA but not on the Nasdaq. The one trend component isn’t where it was for July Nasdaq top yet though.