I would agree with that only if we hadn't sold off so far… so fast! At this point the odds of a new high, or even a double top, are very slim. The best case scenario is to reach 112.34 spy by Friday.
Yes, you are absolutely right. There was a gap fill at that time and date. I forgot to include that on the post, but that's the reason behind the break of 108… they wanted to fill that gap.
if this scenario plays out like all others in the past then we would likely close @ the high of week next week above 1150, then the following week close below SPY 107.15. This would fit with your scenario a couple weeks back with the major turning point coming around Feb. 9.
i definitely think it's a bear trap in the very short term, I've seen this dance once too many times. This move is just a throwback to check support at the crash gap from 08' which is @ SPY 107.15. I wish I could post some charts into the comments box because the reaction off of this type of throwback is very powerful.
Charts of Charts hints at a coming bounce….it doesn't stay that bearish for too long, unless it is a major down, and I don't think we are at the point of a major down.
Little Dog has this to say about Chart of Charts:
You know I like the moon, but it is really weird that the eclipse marked this turn down precisely. Also the 5 DMA flipped down right then, and the yellow line for “high levels of stock ready to make some pattern move” also showed us the potential for a turn. AS PREDICTED by your humble dog last week, the 20DMA did flip bearish on Monday, and then stayed there.
The 5, 10, and 20 DMA are all bearish. That is rare. Betting short on the 20DMA going bearish is “safe” you just have to close the trade– no matter what– when the 20 comes back up bullish.
Also, with the number of banks failings increasing, and now they aren't just closing them on Friday's, they did a bunch on Tuesday also! This is bearish.
The consumer is 70% of the economy, and the consumier has been misled and is being crushed. Even if you default on a loan, or EVEN if you do a short sale….they can still come after you and garnish your wages…while you are living in a freakin' tent already!
here are some charts
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/43166…
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/43166…
I would agree with that only if we hadn't sold off so far… so fast! At this point the odds of a new high, or even a double top, are very slim. The best case scenario is to reach 112.34 spy by Friday.
Yes, you are absolutely right. There was a gap fill at that time and date. I forgot to include that on the post, but that's the reason behind the break of 108… they wanted to fill that gap.
if this scenario plays out like all others in the past then we would likely close @ the high of week next week above 1150, then the following week close below SPY 107.15. This would fit with your scenario a couple weeks back with the major turning point coming around Feb. 9.
i definitely think it's a bear trap in the very short term, I've seen this dance once too many times. This move is just a throwback to check support at the crash gap from 08' which is @ SPY 107.15. I wish I could post some charts into the comments box because the reaction off of this type of throwback is very powerful.
Thanks dark1…
I try to open peoples' minds to “thinking outside the box”.
And thanks for helping Anna's critters too!
Red
Finally remembered to bookmark you! I'll be trolling by on my daily rounds….I like your observations, you make me think.
You're welcome moon… Be sure to stop by an read the weekend update posted late Sunday night.
I believe it is a “major downturn” Steveo. Be careful going long my friend, as you might be served up as steak to a hungry bear!
Charts of Charts hints at a coming bounce….it doesn't stay that bearish for too long, unless it is a major down, and I don't think we are at the point of a major down.
Little Dog has this to say about Chart of Charts:
You know I like the moon, but it is really weird that the eclipse marked this turn down precisely. Also the 5 DMA flipped down right then, and the yellow line for “high levels of stock ready to make some pattern move” also showed us the potential for a turn. AS PREDICTED by your humble dog last week, the 20DMA did flip bearish on Monday, and then stayed there.
The 5, 10, and 20 DMA are all bearish. That is rare. Betting short on the 20DMA going bearish is “safe” you just have to close the trade– no matter what– when the 20 comes back up bullish.
Also, with the number of banks failings increasing, and now they aren't just closing them on Friday's, they did a bunch on Tuesday also! This is bearish.
The consumer is 70% of the economy, and the consumier has been misled and is being crushed. Even if you default on a loan, or EVEN if you do a short sale….they can still come after you and garnish your wages…while you are living in a freakin' tent already!
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2010/01/guest-p…