Global Currency Reset Stock Market Crash Or Both?

By Red Dragon Leo, on July 16th, 2014

Is Christine Lagarde fooling the sheep or telling the truth?

(to watch on youtube: www.youtube.com/watch?v=_jkSp18v0Dw)

I delayed writing this post for over a week as I just didn’t think it was going to happen.  Past history shows that every time we sheep hear something on the internet that is supposed to happen, and therefore we short the stock market, we end up getting screwed when the market rallies and the event date passes with nothing much happening.

But… is this time different?

I really wish I knew the answer there but I don’t?  The last 5 years have been a huge learning experience for me personally as I only started this blog to post my own thoughts about where the stock market was going to next.  I never decided to take the “red pill” and become a conspiracy blog poster.  In fact I never would have went down the rabbit hole if I hadn’t seen my first FP (fake print) back on January 11th, 2010 showing a 97 point drop in the SPX that day when it really only traded in a 5 point range or so.

That lead me down the path to learning that the stock was 100% rigged… and always has been rigged since it was created many, many years ago.  It’s designed to steal money from the average long term investor sheep that doesn’t trade the market everyday but puts in his or her savings into a 401k plan with the hopes of having a nice nest egg to retire on one day.

The gangsters the run the market (they are called the Illuminati, the Cabal, the Free Masons, but they are all the same) created this system so they could use these sheeps’ money to pay for large projects they build in other countries where they find cheap labor to replace the current labor force in the current country.  Meaning that they have the sheep in a country like America pay to have their jobs replaced by cheaper labor in a third world country.

Basically they crash the stock market from time to time to steal that money to pay for the building of the infrastructure of that third world country.  The money they steal from the sheep from their retirement plans being cut in half goes to pay for the final outsourcing of the sheeps’ jobs to that third world country.  So when you hear a president come on TV and say that he is going to help “level the playing field” by creating jobs in one of those countries you now know that he simply means that he plans on replacing your high dollar job with someone cheaper.

The last stock market crash in 2008 was done to pay for the infrastructure of India…

The next stock market crash will be done to pay the infrastructure of another third world country that has even cheaper labor then America or India does.  People there work for a dollar a day I’m told… which means that the gangsters that control the world can put a lot more money in their pocket by paying those people the pay YOU!

If you think they will replace you with a machine or robot you’re wrong!  You’ll be replaced with another human that is less educated then you and will work for far less then you currently make.  The biggest “outsourcing” of YOU is scheduled to be completed in 2017… which means you can expect a HUGE Stock Market Crash to start that year as it’s the LARGEST project ever built, and that means it will be this biggest crash since 1929 as well.

But I’m getting off topic hear aren’t I?

Sorry, but one of the things I always do is just write whatever comes to mind at the time.  That means I go off topic from time to time as the thoughts just pour into my head.  In fact, I never script anything or go back and change any videos.  If I screw up in something I said I just keep on talking and post it anyway.  Going back and editing out the “hmmm’s and uh’s” is a waste of time as I’m just as human as you are and make ton’s of mistakes.

One of those is the penny stock newsletter.  While I’m still struggling to understand this game so I can help all of you make money from it my partner and I are frustrated with alerts we’ve sent out.  All the recent companies we’ve researched thoroughly and know that they all have huge potential.  But it seems that they can’t seem to get going to the upside even when a lot of other groups also see the potential and alert their members too.

However, that’s another story.  I don’t have time to go into details about it now as I’ve got to tell you about what I see happening the stock market right now.  Meaning that this Christine Lagarde video is something I must cover again.  While I did a post on it back in January (http://reddragonleo.com/2014/01/20/when-will-the-stock-market-bubble-burst), and even though the date I forecasted back then was wrong the video itself is something worth revisiting.

I know that in the past 5 years I’ve gotten caught up in this “red pill” stuff and went short the market based on it… only to see the market rally and kill my position, some how this time “could” really be different?  While I don’t have a crystal ball I will say that I’ve never actually heard one of the gangsters (the elite… as in, Christine Lagarde) publicly say something that pointed to an “event happening” and a “date” for it.  Truly this is a first… at least for me!

I’m probably 100% wrong on this call as I feel I’m the only person bearish right now…

Here’s my thoughts… Lagarde is telling the truth as she is clearing saying that we are going to experience a big correction in the market this year.  Why?  Because it’s a “magical year” as she clearly pointed out how important the number 7 is to the elite.  The question is… what is the date she is talking about?  And what is it that is planned to happen?  Will it be a “Global Current Reset” as Lindsey Williams said will happen, or will it just be some other reason for them to tank the stock market?  I don’t know “what” the event is but the date does seem to be set in July of 2014 as 2+0+1+4=7 and July is the 7th month.  The only thing left is the date of the month… which the 7th, 16th, and 25th all equal a 7, but which one?  When combined with the month and year you’ll have “magical” 777 day!

I’m speculating that it’s on the 16th because of this Bradley turn date that peaks on the 16th…

(to watch on youtube: www.youtube.com/watch?v=QYmViPTndxw)

 

Now of course I could be off and the date could be the 25th, but I must admit that “if” we some how put in high, low, open or closing price on Wednesday the 16th (a 777 day) of 1977.77 SPX or 197.77 SPY I’d be extremely excited about shorting the market as that would be a signal to the “Illuminated Ones” (which I’m not one of but trying to figure out their signals) that the top was in.  Most people don’t remember August 25th, 1987 other then that was the high for the year of 1987 but the crash was of course on “Black Monday” October 19th, 1987.

However, on that date the SPX put in an intraday high of 337.88… which the 88 is of course a master number meaning “11″, but more importantly was the “not noticed” (except by the “Illuminated Assholes”) intraday low of… [insert drum roll here] 333.33!  YES, they put a clear signal that the top was in that day!  Did you see it or know it?  Not likely… in fact I only noticed it about a year ago after I started added numerology in my day to day chart analysis.  Does it mean any?  You tell me… does the March 6th, 2009 low of 666 mean anything?

Maybe I’m totally nuts and ritual numbers in the market are just random events, or maybe the market really is run by vampires called “reptilian shape-shifter”?  People believed in demons centuries ago but modern man doesn’t seem to think stuff like this is real… why?  If they were real back then what makes you think that they some how disappeared today?  If they ruled the sheep back then why shouldn’t they still be ruling the sheep now?  They just go underground (so to speak) and hide from the public, but they still run the show.  In fact, the oldest vampires are probably in the Rothschild family and are the one’s responsible for shooting down that plane in Malaysia.  There was a team of 4 Chinese inventors that held a patent for 80% (20% between each of them) for something still unknown, with FreeScale Semiconductor owning the remaining 20% of the invention.

Now the interesting thing is that FreeScale is owned by the group building the new infrastructure (to eliminate YOUR job) which is called the Blackstone Group.  And Blackstone is own by the Rothschild vampires… so do the math!  They shot down the plane to get 100% of the patent as the legal contract stated that in the event of one of the parties dying the remaining percentage of would be split among the surviving members.  Therefore, if you kill 4 people that own 80% of the patent the remaining company called FreeScale would then get all of that and own 100%, not the original 20% (nothing new here as the same vampires sunk the Titanic too, but that’s another story).

Getting back on track again…

Again, I must apology as I sometimes just drift onto subjects that are off topic and I’m sure you don’t care about that other stuff and just want and update on the stock market so you can make money from it. My thoughts have been simple really… a ritual number should but put in on Wednesday the 16th of 2014 to indicate that an important top is it.  My “human side” tells me that they will take the market higher but recently I’ve been “talking to myself… LOL” for a lack of understanding and I’ve been told to short on Wednesday and that it would be a very important top… and that this Lagarde thing is real.

Personally I don’t believe my “inter-voice” yet, as I’ve only recently (the last 2 weeks) been talking to it (yeah, if you didn’t already think I was crazy you do now).  I mean, come on now…  I’ll be 50 years old (although I look much, much younger… probably the blue eyes and blonde hair) this coming August 10th, 2014 (yes, I was born the year of the dragon in 1964 and the month of Leo… hence the name of this site) and I have to say that I feel like I’m only 30 years old.  Crazy huh?  It’s probably because I never got married or had any kids to stress me out… LOL!

Anyway, this voice in my head has told me 4 correct calls in a row and I took 3 of them to make a bunch of money.  I didn’t take the Monday the 7th call was to get short within the first 30 minutes on the expect bounce.  Needless to say I was dumb for missing out on that call and not listening to my inter-voice.  I did listen and I placed a short on the 9th right at the last 30 minutes of the day.  I think I tripled my money on that call (it was a put spread that expired that week… very risky).  Then I went long at the bottom (missed it by a 1-2 points) on 7-10 as my inter-voice told me to sell and go long into this coming Wednesday the 16th.

However, stupid me closed out my call spread on Friday before Monday’s rally up.  So while I still made about 40% gain I could have made about 80% if I had listened to myself telling me what to do.  This voice tells me to short the crap out of Wednesday’s move with the expected high to happen by the noon time hour.  I can’t explain it but I’ve made a bunch of money on taking the 3 of 4 of these predictions with all 4 of them being correct.  It’s hard from me to believe that suddenly I’ve been in contact with my immortal soul (or directly with God himself/herself… LOL) but I’ve prayed about it months now.  I really wanted to connect with myself through my pineal gland like all the gangsters do to connect to Satan.

But while others have been able to see visions and stuff I’ve seen nothing.  I still see nothing.  I’m probably nuts for even posting this publicly but myself tells me to do it… LOL!  Well, there’s nothing like pouring out your heart publicly I guess.  So I’ll just say again that I strongly believe tomorrow is an important day to take a short position.  I don’t know if there is going to be a “Global Currency Reset” like many think will happen (and Christine Lagarde hints at without saying directly) but the charts are very bearish and even without such an event we should be in a short position.

Here’s the previous notes that I posted back in January…

  • 2014 will be a magic year (meaning what?  will you pull a rabbit out your hat?  will you steal money from the sheep without them seeing you do it?)
  • 100th anniversary of the first world war in 1914 (strangely when I researched what happened to the DOW back then it was closed down for several months due to the first world war starting.  are we expecting the same here? REFERENCE: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/02/most-long-term-charts-of-djia-are-wrong, http://measuringworth.com/DJA, https://www.globalfinancialdata.com/gfdblog/?p=1426 )
  • 70th anniversary of the Bretton Woods Conference that gave birth to the IMF. (The delegates deliberated during 1–22 July 1944, and signed the Agreement on its final day. REFERENCE: https://www.google.com/search?q=first+bretton+woods+conference+date&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a&channel=fflb Not sure what the hidden message was here?)
  • 25th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin wall (Destruction date: November 9, 1989… but what is she hinting at here?  Is the “buzz word” the “25th”or the “fall”?  Does the 25th mean a certain future date or does the word “fall” indicate that the market will fall hard?)
  • 7th anniversary of the financial market jitters. (again with the focus on the number 7… meaning what?  are we looking for another move down similar to 2008?)
  • The crisis still lingers… (clearly this means we are going down again)
  • It will not happen randomly… (of course not, it’s always planned)
  • “Global growth is still stuck in low gear” (Hmmm… just a fall guy to blame I guess?  We tank and it’s the fault of slowing global growth)
  • It will not be without downside risks, and significant ones (referring to inflation… or was it really meant to refer to the stock market?)
  • We are seeing rising risks of deflation… (good for us sheep but bad for them)
  • Global growth slowing down as the economy cycle turns… (the “buzz word” that stands out to me there is “cycle turns”)
  • Risk of capital runs… (You really mean the gangsters are moving their money out the market before the collapse)
  • Dry run back in May of 2013… (Ah yes, the old test where Bernanke hinted at pulling money out the market last year)
  • There could still be some rough waters ahead of us… (another clear warning that they plan on taking the market down)
  • Overall, the direction is positive (meaning after the downturn the market we’ll go back up again, which should be a final Primary Wave 5 up with this coming correction next month being a nasty Primary Wave 4 down)
  • 95% of the income growth went to the top 1% (Duh… nothing new there as that was always the plan!  Steal from the sheep and give to the wolves)
  • Tapering will have too be very well timed… (again, she’s clearly staying that we are going to withdraw money from the market)
  • Central banks will have to “undo” what they’ve done… (and again, more references to cutting back the stimulus?)
  • Removing the threat of the debt ceiling… (meaning what?  They won’t set one, or make it unlimited?  I don’t know what she means with this sentence?)
  • A stress test will be done in 2014… (Why?  You already know the banks would all fail.  I guess they have to blame the correction on something)

I’ll point out that unless you are truly one of the elite it’s not obvious to the date of the event or the actual event itself.   It’s only obvious that we are in for some rough waters in this magical year of 2014.   Does that mean we tank in the stock market?  Does that mean we have a global currency reset?  I just don’t know the answers there but I sure do think this market is ready to take a nose dive.  So assuming we don’t gap up 10+ points on the 16th I’ll be looking for some ritual number (like 1977.77 SPX or 197.77 SPY) to be hit early on which I’ll be shorting for a ride down to 1900-1920 SPX area in the coming weeks (or less?).

Red…

 

64 comments   Leo's Den   , , , , , , , , , ,  

Bulls In Control Until Mid-Summer…

By Red Dragon Leo, on June 9th, 2014

Light Volume Melt UP Still Continues…

(to watch on youtube: www.youtube.com/watch?v=ye9vs_any6Y)

The market is currently experiencing some of the light trading volume days I’ve seen in a very long time.  It’s preventing the bears from having any pullback at all.  While we “should” have had a 2-4% SPX pullback recently it just hasn’t happened and doesn’t look like it’s going to happen anytime soon.  Possibly we’ll get some “one day wonders” of 20-30 points down in the near future but I wouldn’t count on it.  The old saying is “never short a dull market” and this is the dullest market around.

I’ll go over the charts in the video but any bearish case (and there’s a whole lot of them) will probably NOT play out due to the light volume we are having that keeps the market up in spite of everything else.  Some even say it feels like the 1999-2000 run up in the market… just a slow grind every day to put everyone to sleep as it defies gravity and just never has any decent pullback to get long at.  Everyone was forced to chase it… at least until the END!

While I’m not expecting this year to crash like it did back then I am expecting a 10-15% correction later this second half of 2014.  The real crash is around 3 years away I think.  However, I was expecting some pullbacks of 2-4% that I would like to play on both the downside and the upside rally that would follow.  It’s just not looking like I’m going to get it until we see some more volume in the market.  We are very far away from all the moving averages below and various support levels, which normally CANNOT be sustained for very long without a correction.  But we are NOT in a “NORMAL” trading period as the volume probably the lightest we’ve had for the last 5 years or more.

It tells me that the Fed’s have instructed the big institutions NOT to sell, which will allow this light volume float up to continue much longer then it should.  It’s obviously not the Fed’s QE money pushing this market up as they are taking more and more of it out the market at every FOMC meeting, so it’s got to be the small retail sheep buying it up here as there’s no one left but them.

Lets examine this daily chart of the SPX for a minute…

SPX-Update-06-08-2014

Looking back to December of 2013 you’ll notice how the market hit overhead resistance, pulled back for a couple of days (30-40 points), went back up and hit resistance again and then pulled back for a 2nd time for another 30-40 points…. and finally rolled over for about a 6% correction to bottom at 1737 SPX in February of 2014.  Then we rallied up until March before tiring out and after several days of chopping sideways we dropped for a few days… again 30-40 points.

Then back up to peak at 1897 in late March, which was then followed by about a 4.5% correction.  Each time the market dropped to hit the rising trendline of support from 2011 and bounced back up from it.  That’s why I was expecting only a 2-4% correction this time as the market was making smaller corrections each time as it was coming to the end of the rising wedge.

This most recent time the market chopped along that rising trendline of resistance in the 1920 area for many days and couldn’t get through.  Everything looked similar to the prior 3-4 times except that we were actually more overbought this time thing previously.  So what changed?  Why didn’t the market rollover again?  The only answer I have is “EXTREMELY LIGHT VOLUME!”.

So what’s next?

My best guess is that we continue higher with that next overhead resistance line being the next upside target.  It looks to be near 2000 SPX on the chart but it’s hard to tell for sure as it rises every day.  But if there are a lot of bear stops still left after Friday’s breakout move then the bulls could put a nasty wave 3 squeeze on the bears and run this up higher then we could believe this week.

However, the more likely scenario is that we backtest the broken trendline of resistance in the 1925 area that will now become support.  This week is usually the pause or down week with the bottom being put in on Thursday or Friday, and then next week is usually the super bullish week as it’s the month option expiration week.

With that said I’d look for a long position on a pullback to backtest that broken trendline as the odds are strong that we will now continue higher with 2000+ being the upside target area.  Once we hit that rising trendline (which again is in the 2000 area currently) I could then see a pullback to the middle rising trendline that we just broke out of late last week.  It could rise up to 1930-1935 by then… depending on how long it takes us to first hit the upper rising trendline near 2000.

Catching a bear move is during a cattle drive isn’t exactly the easiest thing to do!

One might view this slow grind higher as cattle (the bulls) being driven by some ranchers (banksters) from one coast of America to the other coast with some random bear attacks at night when the cattle are sleeping and the ranchers are passed out from drinking too much Whiskey.  The bears get a few of the cattle but the rancher always wakes up the next morning to protect the herd.

So until these cattle are delivered to their final destination and read for slaughter I’d be cautious on the shorting, and instead you might just want to go long once that middle rising trendline is backtest this week.  My best guess is that we peak out on Tuesday in the 1960+ area and then drop back into Thursday or Friday for the low… which again should only backtest the middle rising trendline that we just broke out of last week.  It should be in the 1930 area by Tuesday but with the 10 day moving average at 1923 we could see that hit to trick the bears by piercing the trendline of “now support” (former resistance) on an intra-day move.

It’s common for them to briefly pierce through support and resistance levels I’ve noticed as it lures in the suckers just before the turn and go the other direction.  I think that area just below 1930 is a good entry for a long into the 3rd week of this month as it’s option expiration week and is bullish 80% of the time.  You could probably get long and this Thursday or Friday (June 12th or 13th) and ride it up to that 2000 area which could come as early as by the following Friday the 20th (no guarantee on that time frame though).

Naturally everything I’m speculating on here can change (and usually does… like 100% of the time! LOL), so keep checking the comments for updates as time goes forward as I post any changes there which also get reposted on Twitter and Facebook.

Hang in there bears, you only have another month or so to go…

Red

 

99 comments   Leo's Den   , , , , , , , , , ,  

The Scary planetary alignment due on April 21st 2014

By Red Dragon Leo, on April 20th, 2014

 

Mother’s Day Weekend Update by Red

(to watch on youtube: www.youtube.com/watch?v=hoYuzvibh3k)

_____________________________________________________

Ali’s Post…

The Scary planetary alignment due on April 21st, 2014 which is synchronized with the upcoming huge financial asset bubble burst! Be ready!

Certain important planetary alignments can be used to project both the minor and major turning points in stock market. In other words, some important planetary aspects can be used as a great timing tool in the stock market activity.

There are two systems of measurement that define the periods of the planets; the “sidereal “and “synodic” systems. The sidereal period is the time it takes a planet to complete one orbit. For instance, the sidereal period of the earth is 365.25636 solar days or Mars whose sidereal period is 687 solar days.  On the other hand, a synodic period measures the period between two successive conjunctions of two planets. For example, the time interval between two successive conjunctions of Jupiter-Uranus is 14 years.

The planetary aspects are created when the important angles of the planets are aligned. As a matter of fact, such angles have traditional names; Conjunction(360 degrees), Opposition(180 degrees), Trine(120 degrees), Square(90 degrees), Sextile(60 degrees), Semi-Square(45 degrees), Semi-Sextile (30 degrees).

One of the most important planetary aspects is due on April 21st or 22nd, 2014 which could be synchronized with a nasty financial crisis.

Actually, It will not be the end of the world though. At that time, Uranus is exactly square (the 90-degree aspect) to Pluto. It is also square to Jupiter and both Jupiter and Pluto are square to Mars. You see, all four planets are either 90 degrees (Square) or 180 degrees (Opposition) to each other. It could be a real scary planetary aspect which might impact the financial markets, especially the stock market BIG TIME.

It is really important to understand that big world events are not necessarily synchronized with the major planetary aspects, the exact date on which they occur. Sometimes a couple of days before or after or even a couple weeks before or after. You have just begun to see the turmoil in the stock market though.

 

May you profit handsomely,

Ali

www.divinechartpatterns.com

info@divinechartpatterns.com

_____________________________________________________

Red’s video…

(to watch on youtube: www.youtube.com/watch?v=5G9_6ll4e5w)

 

Here’s the link to Raymond Merriman’s interesting post about these time period…

http://www.mmacycles.com/weekly-preview/mma-comments-for-the-week/mma-comments-for-the-week-beginning-april-21,-2014/

124 comments   Ali Firoozi Yasar, Leo's Den   , , ,  

New Higher High Still Coming Or Lower High?

By Red Dragon Leo, on March 16th, 2014

… by Ali Firoozi Yasar

A shot to the new highs but April is the month you need to watch closely!

As you know, incoming US economic data in early 2014 have been largely disappointing and the Fed blames the weaker performance mainly on the impact of unseasonably cold weather on consumer spending, industrial activity and construction. In January, retail sales data came out well below expectations, existing home sales and housing starts started trending significantly lower, US manufacturing activity also appeared to be decelerating , industrial production declined at the beginning of the year, durable goods orders continued to contract and ISM manufacturing index dropped to an eight month low.

US real GDP is expected to advance 2.8% this year and 3% in 2015, roughly a percentage point above 2013. Actually, the Fed believes the events and factors at play are short-lived and the US economic recovery remains intact. Actually, this bunch of weak economic data has not yet convinced them to let the market drop as it has all been the weather’s fault not anybody else….

As for the geopolitical tensions, Ukraine crisis cannot just be ignored. Actually, it is a global crisis and will not be a one-day news story which will fade away soon. You see, it has a real potential to be escalated real soon. All eyes are on Russia and Ukraine, watching them closely.

As you saw, after a sharp decline to open the trading session on Monday, the markets immediately recovered all over the trading day following Mr. Putin’s latest statement, relieving the buyers who were actually looking for value on the dip, and the buying has been continuing to open up the session for tomorrow so that we can see a shot back to the highs. In fact, buyers are all in control, buying the dip whenever they get a chance and we may also have new all time highs. But how much is it going to last?

In my previous post, I mentioned that the market could exceed the levels on my charts, as I somehow knew the “central planners” would be able to get the situation under control, and then put the blame on the bad weather. But how are they supposed to fight the serious events that are about to come up in April. Yes, you heard me, April! Actually, next month will be a rough month for investors and financial markets. Keep an eye out for the markets around these dates, April 15th, 24th and 29th.

I have repeated over and over again that the market will have to correct on the monthly chart as the cycle has just completed and they (central planners) are trying their hardest to hold it up as much as they can. Whether it is a serious geopolitical tension or a financial crisis which might pop up out of nowhere in April and cannot be blamed on the weather, the stock market will have to retrace a major portion of the gains which has been accumulated since the rebound of 2009. If that does not happen, I will sure need to go back to the drawing board to just find out what is wrong with my cycle analysis.

 

May you profit handsomely,

Ali

www.divinechartpatterns.com

info@divinechartpatterns.com

 

_______________________________________________________________________

… by Red

Is this the start of Primary 4 Down or is there one more move higher still to come?

(to watch on youtube: www.youtube.com/watch?v=atoahCbWYt0)

Looking at the charts on the various time frames I could argue a case for both scenario’s.  One will be right and one will be wrong so we simply have to play the safest bet which I think will be long around the middle to the end of this coming week… but ultimately we know that the powers that be already know which one will play out and it’s our job to read their minds.

For right now I think we can all agree that the direction is currently down.  But a bottom should appear sometime this week, with the 19th-21st being the idea time frame.  Why?  Simple really.  The coming FOMC meeting on Wednesday the 19th should gives us the clues we need.  Assuming that nothing changes and the Fed’s decide to continue with their plans to withdraw more of the QE money then we should logically expect some negative reaction from it afterwards.  But, as we all know, the market thinks and reacts ahead of the news… which means that “most” of the selling should be about over with by the time the news is released.

I’m looking for a target low of 1810-1815 SPX for the first area of support.  But, I suspect that for that level to work out as being the low we really need to rally some ahead of this coming FOMC meeting.  Technically, we are do for a bounce but with the meeting still in front of us I suspect that we will not bounce any and just continue drifting lower due to the fear of the “unknown” from whatever will be said at the meeting.  So, we could actually drop to that zone going into the meeting instead of bouncing up to an overhead downward sloping trendline of resistance in the 1860 area.

While we know that one should never trade off the news as it’s already built into the charts ahead of time we also should know that with some pending (possibly negative) news lurking just a few days away shouldn’t expect any turn back up just because some short term charts are getting oversold.  The market does react to news as it’s put out their by the powers that be to mislead the sheep in the wrong direction by having something to blame the selling or buying on.  Of course if there was no Fed meeting this week then I’d expect the market to bottom around the open on Monday and start rallying from oversold short term charts… but that’s not the case here!

So, we should expect the market to chop around until the FOMC minutes are released Wednesday around 2:15 pm, with a downward bias of course.  I suspect that we’ll end up dropping to that 1810-1815 area prior to the meeting… which should get a lot more short term charts (and the daily too) in an oversold condition, which means the bottom will be near.

Then once the news is announced that they have decided to “stay the course” (meaning to continue withdrawing money) we should see another move down out of fear (done by the retail sheep of course), which could drop us to the rising trendline of support in the 1790 area.  Bears should be all over it as it breaks down through the “even number” level of 1800 and that’s about when I think we’ll bottom.

I’ve noticed that “Skynet” (the name I’ve given to the super computer that manipulates the market) has routinely pierced through important levels briefly to lure in the last retail sheep just before switching and going the opposite direction.  It should be the same thing for the bulls “if” we rally up to new higher highs in the coming month hit 1900… which of course should be pierced by 5-10 points to trap those bulls long.  While I don’t know if we are going up to new highs or not I do believe the coming low will trap the bears short… which is why I suspect 1800 will be broken briefly.

I’ve seen this happen many times in the past and have calculated that these moves usually last 18-20 calendar days and drop 80-100 SPX points.  They also don’t give use bears many chances to get short with a decent bounce.  While I’d love to see a bounce to that downward sloping trendline of resistance (around 1860 now) we might not see it at all?  That bounce might not show up until after we bottom in the 1790 area, and then it will of course be lower (in the 1850 probably).

I think the thing to do is to see where the market trades at on Monday and Tuesday prior to the meeting.  If it doesn’t fall to the 1810-1815 area and instead chops around in this 1840 zone then we could see some brief rally up to hit that trendline right around the FOMC minutes to scare out the bears that are currently short.  Then a drop to that 1790 area within a couple more days following the meeting.  That would suggest a low by Friday the 21st, which could be the plan Skynet has for us sheep?

The other plan would of course be a continue drop into the meeting with a low in the 1810-1815 area when the minutes are released, followed by some panic selling to the 1790 area, and then a rally back up to start from that day forward into the rest of the week or more.  The only thing I see here that has high odds is that we will continue down more next week and probably bottom in the 1790 area.  Then the rally that follows could put in a lower high (then the 1883 high) or make one last higher high in the low 1900 area.

Therefore the safest plays I see here are to short any decent bounces with a exit low area of 1790 and then get long for a rally to at least the downward sloping trendline of resistance, which should be in the 1840-1850 by then.  After that I don’t know?  We’ll have too see what the charts tell us at that time as well as the propaganda being pitched to us sheep on the main stream media news channels.

If they continue to preach the end of the market scenario then we should expect the resistance to be broken and another higher high is likely.  If they talk about the market going to new all time highs then we should be shorting and expecting that resistance to hold and the expected right shoulder (of what should then make up a nice “head and shoulders” pattern) to become some type of “Wave B” up or “Wave 2″ up… meaning a big wave down should follow.

It’s really too early to know which will play out so for now I’ll just be focused on this coming week and will as always give you guys updates in the comment section as things change and play out in real time.  Making forecasts this far in advance are just to be used as a general road map of what to look for… not to trade off.  The charts change daily and the best I can do is tell you what I see today.  Always read the comments for updates.

Red

73 comments   Ali Firoozi Yasar, Leo's Den   , , , , , ,  
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