The Coming 2016 Stock Market Crash That Will Be Bigger Then 1929 Was

Date: September 20th, 2015

The recent mini-crash we had on August 24th, 2015, as forecasted in the movie Lucy on Scarlett Johansson’s passport expiration date, and told here in the previous post 2 months before the event will be just a blip when compared to what is coming in 2016.

(to watch on youtube:

While I’m not positive on whether we have already topped already this year in 2015, or if we have one more slightly higher high coming in 2016, I will say with 100% confidence that we are in for another crash next year.

This coming week we have the Evil Reptilian Pope coming to visit the White House on September 22, 2015 (… which I can’t see as anything positive.  This satan worshiping snake is surely making some kind of evil deal with our gangster run government leaders.  What it is, I don’t know?  But it’s clear to me that we are nearing the ending period for this stock market as when these people meet it’s never good for us sheep.  I’m not saying we are going to crash right after he meets but it’s coming soon thereafter… like within a few months.

Over in China we have their government banning shorting their stock market back in July of this year (, which spells disaster in my mind.  When you don’t let traders short the market you don’t have any bears to squeeze, and that means you don’t have any way to rally a market up from a sell off except for tricking the sheep into buying, and that’s probably not possible after you scare them with a big drop.

Next to the sheep buying you have the big institutions buying the sell off, but they aren’t dumb either and won’t buy it without seeing some trapped shorts to squeeze… which of course gets the market going up big time as they all have to cover at a loss.  This is exactly how over here in America our government has keep they market up as high as it’s at now.  Without shorts in the market to squeeze you will go “no bid” and just crash… and that is precisely what’s been happening in China.  And I don’t think it’s over with yet.  When America crashes next year China will go down again.

There’s your clues in the news that tell you the stage is set to crash in 2016!

Looking at the technical picture we have the monthly chart now looking a lot like it did in 2000 and 2007 before it crashed the following year.  The rising channel lines drawn on that chart point to about the 1820 area for the lower rising blue trendline to be support if this month of September were to go down further.  So, we should expect that level to hold on a monthly close on it’s first hit of that trendline.


With the current down trendline being labeled Primary Wave 4 down by Tony Caldaro I’ll continue to refer to it that way as well since his Elliotwave count seems to be the most accurate I’ve found.  Not that I trade off of it on a day to day basis as I find it mostly helpful in seeing what’s behind us and not too predictive for the futures due to it’s many alternative wave counts.

However, on the bigger picture it’s pretty good and looking forward.  Basically we started Primary Wave 1 up from the 666 SPX low in March of 2009 and ended that wave in May, 2011 at 1370 SPX.  Then Primary Wave 2 down happened into the 1074 low in October of 2011.  Following that we had the super long Primary Wave 3 up that ended in May of 2015 at 2135 SPX.  Currently we are in Primary Wave 4 down that should end around the first week of October, 2015.

Once it ends we will be starting Primary Wave 5 up, which should last 2-6 months, and may or may not make a new all time high.  If it does make a new high then I’d expect it to last closer to 6 months and top out just above 2200 SPX.  If it doesn’t make a new high then I’d expect it to last closer to 2 months and would then be called a “truncated” Primary Wave 5… which is common and what I expect to happen.

Since I focus mostly on the technical analysis side of charting and not so much on the Elliotwave side I will say that from a TA side I don’t see any new high coming and instead think we’ll make a lower high on this Primary Wave 5 rally.  In fact, I would not be surprised if they don’t have some tricky big squeeze up for the month of October, peaking in early November for this final wave up.

That would then end the entire 5 wave series since the 2009 low and start the next cycle of waves down, that should erase 50%-80% of the entire market over the next couple of years.  Should it only be 50% or so then we will likely stop and hold around the 1050-1100 SPX area where a rising trendline of support comes in at.  It started at the 1974 low of 62, then the 1982 low of 101 SPX and connects to the 2009 low of 666 SPX.  If that fails then we will find ourselves falling to another rising trendline from the 1929-1932 Stock Market crash low that connects to the 1942 low.  That rising trendline is pointing to the low 400’s on the SPX right now.  Yeah, that’s one scary low!

Of course we’ll find support a the 2009 low of 666 first before it finally breaks and drops to the low 400’s on the SPX, but that’s too far out to predict right now.  We only know that the evil gangsters who run the world want to create their insane New World Order where we sheep are even bigger slaves (and much poorer) then we already all.  They want full control of every aspect of our lives, and crashing to the 1050-1100 SPX area doesn’t seem too me to be deep enough to get the sheep into putting chips in their head or hands for the “Mark of the Beast” as foretold in the Bible.

But crashing to the low 400’s on the SPX should would…

It would scare the sheep into giving up all their last freedoms to be saved from the severe poverty state that Satan’s minions would put them into with a stock market wipeout like that!  Naturally I don’t want to see that happen, but I can’t control it… I can only warn people that it is possible.  It’s possible from not only a charting point of view using technical analysis, but also from an “end times” model that we appear to be in right now… or at least those that rule the world think we are in.

Moving back to the short term I think we’ll have a low in the market in the first week of October of this year.  It should be a lower low then the recent 1867 SPX low on August 24th, but I’m not expecting something crazy like 1700 or so… like many others are forecasting due to the Shemitah September 28th date and the Blood Moon that happens too.  I’m thinking in the low 1800 area for that bottom into early October.

Then we rally into mid to late October, topping out early November and dropping again the rest of that month with some bottom near the end of it and then the December Santa Claus rally starts until the first of 2016.

How low we go in November is not known yet?

Since Primary Wave 5 up should take 2-6 months I’d think we don’t take out the expected Primary Wave 4 low around the low 1800’s, but some massive squeeze up to 2100 SPX in October could change my mind?  I’d rather see some steady 3 wave (ABC) pattern up to 2100 by the end of this year instead, because that would line up more inside the 2-6 months window for Primary Wave 5 up.

Doing the entire move in one month (October) would be very unusual and should then lead to a drop in November well below 1800 with the 1700’s being the target zone.  I personally don’t think that will happen though, but I did want to point it out as “possible”.  Just visit this blog post daily to see new updated comments to stay up to date.

What would make more sense to happen is some low in the 1800 area early October or late September.  Then start the A wave up for Primary Wave 5 up, that should top out mid to late October.  Then down early in November for the B wave down inside Primary Wave 5 up, which should of course make a “higher low” then the start of the A wave up.  Follow that by some C wave up in December to end the Primary Wave 5 up in early January, 2016 (or late December, 2015) that I think will hit 2100 area making a lower high then the Primary Wave 3 up all time high of 2135 in May of 2015.

While it’s possible to make a new “higher high” for Primary Wave 5 up I just don’t see it in the charts… from a technical point of view of course.  The only thing that would make me believe we could see a “higher high” for Primary Wave 5 up is for the month of September to close above 2000 SPX, and I just don’t think that will happen with the next 2 weeks being so bearish as seen in this chart below.


We just had the Fed’s big September FOMC meeting where everyone expected them to raise interest rates and they announced that they wouldn’t be doing that just yet.  We sold off from that positive news, and that’s not a good sign.  If there was anything that should have been used to rally the market up to above 2100 by the end of September it would have been that good news.

Instead they did the announcement in the middle of September knowing very ware that the market would sell off after the news and drop lower into the end of the month.  If they planned to extend this stock market higher into next year they would have made sure to give out some positive news near the end of this month to close it above it’s 20 Month Moving Average… which is currently at 2000 SPX.

Here’s a post done by Amateur Investor showing what happened in the past when the market makes 2 closes below the 20 Month MA.

Weekend Analysis


As I talked about last weekend there have only be “5” times since 1900 when the following conditions have been met.

1.  Dow or S&P Composite dropped 10% in 5 Days or less.
2.  Dow and S&P Composite were within 4 months of an “All Time High”
3.  Shiller PE was 20 or above
4.  The 20 Month Moving Average was tested.

Prior to the most recent event these conditions were met in January of 2008, April of 2000, August of 1998 and October of 1929.  This month will be pivotal for the S&P 500 depending on whether it closes a 2nd Month in a row below its 20 Month Moving Average or not.

Let’s see what happened with the prior “4” events and the 20 Month Moving Average.  Starting with the last event in late 2007/early 2008 there were “2” monthly closes below the 20 Month MA in January and February of 2008.  In this case the S&P 500 rallied back to its 20 Month MA which was then followed by another significant drop (points A to B).

The next case was in 2000 as the S&P 500 closed below its 20 Month MA “2” months in a row in November and December.   Once again notice the S&P 500 rebounded back to its 20 Month MA before selling off again (points C to D).

Meanwhile in the Fall of 1998 notice the S&P 500 failed to close below its 20 Month MA in September and October although it did briefly drop below it two months in a row (point E).   This was then followed by another significant rally through the Spring of 1999 (points E to F).

Finally the last event was in the Fall of 1929 as the S&P closed below its 20 Month MA in October and November.  In this case the S&P rallied back to its 20 Month MA before another sharp sell off occurred (points F to G).

Currently the 20 Month MA in the S&P 500 is at 1999 sp this value won’t change much over the next three weeks.  Thus this will be a key level to watch by the end of the month and may have significant implications for the market in the future depending on whether the S&P 500 closes above or below it.


Clearly you can see that odds are very low that we’ll make a higher high with Primary Wave 5 up when you have 2 monthly closes below the 20 Month MA… which I think we’ll see by the end of this month.

To summarize, I’m looking for this week and next week to go down to make a lower low (then the 1867 SPX August 24th low) to complete Primary Wave 4 down.  Then a rally into mid-late October for the first wave A up of Primary Wave 5… which should be somewhere in the 1950-2000 range I suspect.  After that we should see a B wave down (inside Primary Wave 5 up) to lure in some more bears and scare the bulls out.  This should NOT break the low of Primary Wave 4 down.  Possible targets are 1850-1900 area.  This should end in mid-late November.  Finally we should have a C wave up (inside Primary Wave 5 up) that I suspect will reach around 2100 by the end of this year.


From Lindsey Williams To The Shemitah Many Signs Point To A Stock Market Crash In The Fall Of 2015


July 29th, 2015 … before the FOMC meeting Update

Possible New High Coming On The SPX

(to watch on youtube:

I’m losing my bearishness right now as the weekly chart is getting into oversold area where “turns” usually occur. Bears beware, we could see a new high coming soon.

July 29th, 2015 … after the FOMC meeting Update

Well, the Fed’s said nothing about a rate hike at today’s FOMC meeting.  So that rumor last week of a .35 rate increase in September was NOT confirmed yet.  I suspect the retail traders will view this as positive and buy the market now.  That tells me we will top out tomorrow or Friday instead.

I posted on the blog (in the comment section) the following after I did this newest video update…

“While I think we are “close” to having a breakout to a new high soon I just can’t get excited about going long with the VIX so low and all those bulls still onboard from the 2040 SPX area over the last several months. If SkyNet would just flush them out with some drop to 2000-2020 I’d become a bull again.

They never filled the VIX gap at 16.60 and that leaves some hope that they might just be planing another drop to get the Weekly chart oversold and then allow for a bottom to form. All the bears would pile on below 2040 and once SkyNet gets the bus full it should be plenty of fuel to squeeze them up hard like the rip from the 1820 SPX low last year in October.”

… and then this

“With the news from the FOMC today of them NOT announcing a scheduled rate hike in September as the rumor last week told us it would be .35% I have too think traders will get bullish now… and that should mean the opposite will happen and we’ll drop again.”

Finally I posted this…

“Do “NOTE” that even though the weekly chart is turning back up slightly this move up needs to happen fast… like before breaking that rising trendline on the weekly chart. If for some reason we break that support (that goes back to the 1074 SPX low in 2011) we could fall off a cliff and bury the MACD’s, Histogram Bars, and Stochastic’s on both the daily and weekly chart.”

My thoughts are simple… we are at a critical conjunction where the weekly chart can take us up to new highs with 2200 area being a real target zone, OR we can break the rising trendline of support from the 1074 SPX low in 2011 and drop like a rock.  I just don’t know which one yet?

However, with the VIX still very low and near the long time support zone of 12 or so I don’t see the bulls having the strength to power on up through the current overhead resistance right now.  That leads me to believe we are still in this choppy zone until either the downside 2040 SPX support zone breaks (and breaks the weekly support trendline) or takes out the 2135 all time high.

With that support trendline rising in price level every week now (it looks to be around 2080 now) this “zone” we are in will likely break one direction or the other this week or next week.  If we close below that 2080 area this week then next week could be an “all down week” as mutual funds and hedge funds hit the “SELL” button due to the long time weekly support line breaking.  Remember, “computer trading” looks for certain levels to hold or break and once one occurs BIG moves in one direction or the other just happens automatically.  Humans aren’t doing but about 30-40% of trading now as “algo’s” make up 60-70% of all trading according to many estimates.



… But Will It Be Accurate?

(to watch on youtube:

As we all know the Elite that run the world 100% control the “Main Stream Media” (MSM) and constantly mislead the sheep that watch TV, read the newspaper or listen to the radio.  But what about the Internet?  Do they control it fully too?  NO is the answer as we sheep have the opportunity to publish our own thoughts on blogs like this or various social media outlets.  However don’t just assume that “they” are still busy spreading their “dis-information” stories throughout the Internet to dis-credit true and factual information as I’m 100% positive they are do that every day.

Remember, their entire “motto” of life is to do everything in their power to steal from you, poison you, lie to you, use you, and kill you off when you are no longer a profitable debt slave.  So you should NEVER assume that even though they are bound to tell in advance of the things they plan to do to you that they will do it in a timely manner where you can profit from it… as the opposite is true.

While I think Lindsey Williams is probably a very good man and truly wants to help people I also think his elite source gives him information that is timed to benefit the elite by “suggesting” though his leaked messages that us sheep go long gold near the top, short the dollar near the bottom and of course miss the entire move down recently in oil.

Without a doubt if you traded from his information you would go broke!

(to watch on youtube:

Of course he clearly doesn’t tell you to trade from what he tells you but we all know that people will still listen to his stories and base their trading around the trend that they expect to happen from his information.  This would again result in losing you money as every thing he’s told us over the last 5+ years hasn’t been correct.  The dollar hasn’t crashed, gold hasn’t went up strongly and oil… well he claims his elite contacts never caused the sharp move down as that was apparently all done by Obama trying to push Russia president Putin.

Well, regardless of whether or not the elite crashed oil or Obama we sheep never seen it coming and didn’t profit from it… so the facts are still the same, “You can’t trade off Lindsey’s information (unless you do the opposite?)”, as it’s clearly been wrong since I’ve started to follow him.  That’s been 5-7 years now I guess.

Since I wasn’t following him when he claims to have successfully told everyone in advance of the 2004-2008 big move up in oil and the fall back down hard into the 2009 low I can’t know if that was timed out where the sheep could have profited from his information or not?  I only know that since I’ve known about him his information has been wrong.

So how do you use this information if it’s timed to get the sheep into the stock market on the wrong side when the prediction is expected to happen?

Simple really… you assume we’ll be bottoming when this September, 2015 Stock Market Crash is forecasted and looking for a shorting opportunity several months in advance of it.  When I look back at the 2011 mini-crash I notice that we had the most powerful crash wave (the wave 3 down) in August and then we had 1-2 months of a wild and crazy wave 4 up before the final wave 5 down to 1074 SPX early October low.

Clearly it was very tough to make any money on the wave 5 down as you would have be shaken out many times as the wave 4 up had so many ups and downs in it that most bears would have be puking their guts out from week to week waiting on that final leg down.  The big money (and safer wave to ride) was being short from late July, 2011 into the early August low for the wave 3 down.  This is the wave I personally want to catch (if possible?) and just pass on the expected wild ups and downs in September and October of 2015.

Past evidence on prior moves down is clearly shown in these charts of the DOW as explained in this video about “The Shemitah”…

I’ve looked a several other video’s about The Shemitah and how it points to September 13th, 2015 as being the “Elul 29” and just like this one the best.  It’s done by someone named James Trivette, a preacher I guess?  Anyway, I think it’s well worth your time to watch.

(to watch on youtube:

Sidenote: I looked up the solar eclipse years here…

Eclipses in 2015
March 20: Total solar eclipse
April 4: Total lunar eclipse
September 13: Partial solar eclipse
September 28: Total lunar eclipse

Eclipses in 2016
March 9: Total solar eclipse
March 23: Penumbral lunar eclipse
September 1: Annular solar eclipse
September 16: penumbral lunar eclipse

My thoughts on this forecast again of something bad happening (like a stock market crash) in or around September 13th, 2015 are that it will be a bottoming period, so we should be looking to get short much sooner.  When you ask?  We’ll as most of you long time follows of this site know all about Legatus I’ll point out that we have a meeting this coming June 15th-17th, 2015 and coincidentally an FOMC meeting June 16th-17th as well.

That meeting is the one that many people are expecting the Fed’s to tell the market that they will be raising interest rates in September of this year.  While I don’t know if they will state that news in that meeting I do believe that if they do say it we’ll see a top in the market as traders will start bailing out long before the actual rate hike happens 3 months later.  So by the time September comes the bulk of the panic should be over with… which again leads me to believe it will be a bottoming period.

This also tells me that we should have another big “Wave 3” down (the crash wave) somewhere before that September 13th “Shemitah”date and/or September “Interest Rate Hike”.  Past history tells us that August is a bad month for the market and if you look at 2011 you’ll see that the biggest move down was indeed in August, not September.

Quite possibly we will top in mid-June and start the first waves 1 down and 2 up from there until late July where another big crash wave happens into August?  Of course it shouldn’t follow the 2011 pattern exactly as that would be too easy for us sheep to figure out… and you know “they” won’t make it easy for us to profit from.  If fact they will do everything in their power to make us lose all our money so they can take it from us as they profit wildly from the crash they created.

What about Legatus?

Upcoming-2015-Legatus-EventsIn that Legatus meeting I’m sure they will make the final decision on whether or not the “Stock Market Crash” is still on for 2015 or if they are going to push it out one more year into 2016.  I don’t know the answer of course but I do believe without a doubt that it will happen before Obama leaves office as they want to blame this whole crash on him.  He will be the “scapegoat” for the coming collapse even though it was planned many decades ago.

These elite are just a bunch of crust old white vampires that will get a kick out of setting up the first black gay American president… which is why they put him in office in the first place I’m sure.  I kind of feel sorry for him in some ways as it’s not his fault for what’s coming.  But they seem to have NO Feeling at all of compassion for other humans and will do whatever it takes to fulfill their sick agenda.

I can’t tell you the exact date of the top or the bottom (assuming the crash still happens) as I’m sure that any date I put out there will (could?) be off simply because I said it would happen.  I’m just saying that if too many people (sheep only, as the elite know the date) discover the exact day the market will top then they will be forced to change it.

I remember back in 2013 when I did several posts saying that we’d top on May 22nd, 2013 because it was right in the middle of a Legatus meeting and a ritual “33” day (  I told everyone about it for 2-3 months prior to it happening.  I thought it would be the top for the year, and we’d crash from there into a low later that year.  While it did top out and drop from 1687 SPX to 1560 by June 24th it wasn’t the high of the year, nor was it a crash.

I don’t know if they plans were changed or not (due to the fact that there could have been too many sheep aware of the date after I posted it?), but I’ve changed a lot since then in my charting analysis and simply post what I think is possible, but give NO promises of “it will be the top” or “we must crash”… as I now know how quickly “they” can change the plans to make us blog writers and stock market forecasters look like fools.

Therefore I’ll just point out “possibilities” with some supporting evidence that whatever date or time frame I might a forecast for “could” be accurate.   My personal trading method today is “day trading”, and I’ve do very well with this method over the last year or so… much more profitable then trying to forecast which direction the market will be going at a week or two from now.

This is one of the main reasons I don’t post as much anymore.  The other reasons are that the better I get at day trading the less information I can find out there to post on that will be correct in the near future.  There just isn’t enough “darkside information” available that is accurate.  Ritual numbers and ritual dates are too abundant to call everyone of them and expect a turn in the market.

So I just do my best to post comments on whatever the current blog post is, which are there to inform everyone of what I see short term for the market.  Then I re-post via my twitter account.  Sometimes (if I remember?) I post it on my facebook account too.

Why is Walmart closing stores around the county claims plumbing problems and then NOT filing for a plumbing permit?

There’s a lot of posts around the internet talking about the mysterious closings of all these Walmart stores for some plumbing problems and then blacking out all their store windows and hiring police officers (not security guards as most stores would) to guard the place.  Then on top of that are all these military vehicles being spotted going to these stores.  Are they planning on marshall law in the near future to put the sheep in?  If so, what event would cause this?

Walmart Closing Five Stores For ‘Plumbing Problems’

Military vehicles are being shipped to a closed Texas Walmart ahead of Jade Helm? (Photos)

I know we’ve seen of a lot this stuff before in the past and nothing ever became of it (at least in the “stock market crash” forecasting), but it’s still worth knowing about as at some point in the future I’m sure they will do something bad to us sheep so they can put these Walmart stores to use locking up certain people that go crazy when the economy collapses and they have no job, no home, and no food to eat.

Whether all this happens in late 2015 or they push it out until 2016 is unknown, but I firmly believe it will start before Obama leaves office.  If the Fed’s decide to announce the future interest rate hike in September, 2015 during this coming June 16th-17th FOMC meeting then we should all expect it to start this year.  If not, then possibly they decide to push it out one more year?

However, I certainly get the feeling that it will start this year… bottom in Sept/Oct and rally up into 2016 before they pull the rug out completely and slaughter this fat pig of a market.  Let’s face it… the monthly chart of the SPX looks eerily similar to the 2011 period before a nasty mini-crash happened.

What about any FP’s? (fake prints)

I don’t have any new ones (on the large scale) but I’m still thinking this old one from January 2014 “could” still be in play.  It’s one showing the NYA at 11334.65 high.

nyse daily intra1 jan7

There’s also the old TVIX FP showing 35.9599 from 11/14/2013…


So not much to say on that subject.  Those prints could both be nothing as they are old and plans could have changed from then to now.  But I wanted to include them should the market put in a top in mid-June and start crashing into September as they could be targets?

I’m still not sure all the pieces are in place for the total collapse though as the ECB is still supporting their markets in Europe with their version of Quantitative Easing and isn’t scheduled to end until September of 2016 (  But, that doesn’t mean we can’t get started this year here in America and have the first larger “Wave 1” down, followed by a mufti-month “Wave 2” up into mid-2016.  Then the “Super Crash Wave 3” down into the end of 2016 and probably some of 2017 could happen.

S&P 500 Monthly 2015-06-02

In both the 2000 and 2007 tops and crashes that followed we had a month chart that produced a wave 1 down and wave 2 up before their wave 3 “crash wave” down happen… therefore we should expect something similar to happen this time around as well.  That gives us a strong possibility that it will indeed start in 2015 but get worse in 2016.  So let’s keep our minds sharp and open to the fact that we do have some very good odds of a major turn down this year.

Final Clues: Has the elite already warned us of “The Crash Date”?

matrix-passportAs we go back to September of 2001 we remember the both the movie called “The Matrix”, TV show called “The Lone Gunmen” and the famous episode of “The Simpsons” where we were told in advance of something BIG happening on 9/11.  In the matrix it was shown on Neo’s expiration date that said 9/11/2001.  On the lone gunmen episode it was a hijacked plane that was on a collision course for the twin towers, and finally on the Simpsons it was the cover of a flyer that showed the twin towers in the background with a big $9 to the left of it for the cost of the pamphlet.

simpson-9-11-cover-episodeNo one but the insiders knew what that all meant as I seriously doubt it if there was one “red pill taker” sheep that seen all three (or just one or two) of those messages and figured out the meaning before it happened.  If so, he or she certainly didn’t post it on the internet for all to see (not that many would have seen it anyway as youtube wasn’t around back then).

So I’m not going to tell you what I’ve seen that points to another date of something really bad happening but instead tell you to think like the matrix and go watch a movie called “Lucy” with Scarlett Johansson.  Enough said…


P.S.  Interesting how VERY BEARISH the week after the June 15th-17th is, which is based on prior history.


Just more evidence of a very important week starting June 15th and ending on “Triple Witching” Friday the 19th…


An 80-120 Point Down Move In The SPX Could Happen In March

But if so the next move up should be a huge one…

The market looks a lot like the pattern from November 26th to December 5th, 2014.  It first sold off for a couple of day and then ran back up to make a higher high on the 5th right before a drop of about a 100 SPX points.  This suggests we’ll end the down move Monday/Tuesday (the 2085 area is good support) and go back up into the end of next week topping in the 2130-2140 area.

(to watch on youtube:

This pattern also happened on September 4th, 2014 to the real high in that area on the 19th.  It topped on the 4th, sold off for a week and then back up to make a final higher high on the 19th before the real move down started.  That one was around 200 SPX before bottoming.

We find a similar pattern (with a small twist) back on the July 7th high to the real high on the 24th.  This time the market dropped again for 4 days first, then rallied back up to make “almost” a double top, but failed and had a big “one day” drop on the 17th before it then ran up again into the 24th for the real “higher high” just before the 87 point drop followed.


Looking back even further in time I can see this pattern showing up many times with slight twists to it.  Sometimes it did it’s first drop for 2-3 days, then back up to a new high and other times it took over a week for the first drop to end.  And some of the times there were 2 short drops before the final higher high with the real big drop that followed.

However, there were a few “fake outs” where it appeared that pattern was going to happen but it didn’t.  The October 30th, 2013 to November 7th was one such fake out.  It did another fake out shortly afterwards on November 29th to December 9th, 2013 where each time the expected “big” down move to follow never happened.

The November 7th high was followed by a big bear squeeze for several weeks.  The December 9th high did produce a few days of selling but it never dropped big like all the other periods where 80-120 points down usually followed.  That drop from the 9th barely took out the first low that hit on the 4th of December.

After the move up first I’d look for about 2060-2070 area to be retested as that was a triple top area before the breakout…

It should last about 2 weeks I’d guess and then back up to start a huge wave 3 rally of some kind.  Looking back again at the weekly chart and that rising trendline from the 2011 low of 1074 SPX I would expect it to hold again should they break through that triple top zone.  The 20MA on it is at 2042 right now and the 40MA is at 2003… which is resting just about on that rising trendline.

If I had to guess I’d say that 3 weeks from now the trendline should be around 2030-2040, but with February having such a strong rally I’m not sure how far down they will allow the market to drop in March, but if they drop that far it should be over with by the 3rd week and allow a rally to start in the last week to recover most of the down move.

This was a twitter comment I read last week and if it’s a “factual” statement then any early down move in March has high odds of being erased by the end of March.

“Since 1950 the SPX has gained >5% in February only 5 times (1970, 1975, 1986, 1991, 1998). Added to gains in March all 5 times.”

On an “elliottwave” count I think we are in some type of smaller wave 4 down now, that should complete on Monday or Tuesday.  Then a final smaller wave 5 up to about 2130 area to end a larger wave 3 up (that started at the 2042 low).  This would then complete a 5 wave pattern up from that 2042 low to an estimated 2130 area high.

Assuming this larger wave 3 up ends up being around 90 points in length it the following larger wave 4 down should be some Fibonacci level of 38.2% or even 50% in depth.  If that count is right then it doesn’t look too good for the 80-120 points move happening that I’m thinking will occur.  So for that reason I do think that this chart from Tony Caldaro will be relabeled should my technical analysis be correct by seeing a back test of the triple top area in the 2060-2070 area (or Tony says it’s an “acceptable” pullback to still qualify as a wave 4?)


While I like to read what others have as wave counts using EW I just don’t find it very accurate on the short term.  The gangsters that run this market don’t play by EW rules as we all should know by now.  Try to make sense of that straight up rally from the 1972 low in December 2014 to the 2093 high and give me your EW count there?  Can’t be done in my opinion.

Don’t get me wrong, I like Tony and find his posts helpful a lot.  But SkyNet (what I call the super computer that manipulates the market) is programmed to steal your money.  So it’s well aware of bloggers (and traders) that use technical analysis, elliottwave, fib. levels, astrology, T cycles, etc… to predict the future direction.

Which of course mean…

It’s going to fool you by letting these charting methods work for awhile and just when you think you’ve figured it all out SkyNet just pulls a 180 on your wave count (and/or TA’s, Fib. Level’s, etc…) and has some crazy move out of the blue that no one can see coming.  The move up from the 1820 SPX low to the 2079 high is a perfect example.

I read many tweets about it and hear people say that they’d never seen such a move in their 40 years of trading!  And other stating that it had never happened before in the past!  This should tell you that the more us sheep have access to various charting methods that used too work before the internet the more likely we are to see “Crazy Ivan” type moves happen as SkyNet has to adapt to us sheep figuring out the next move and being on the right side of the trade for once.

Since SkyNet can’t steal the sheep’s money and give it to the bankster gangsters that programed it the computer is forced to go hard in one direction or the other to hit all the buy and/or sell stops put in place by the sheep.  What I’m saying here is that a typical wave 4 down should be around the same length as the wave 2 was (2072 down to 2041 on 2/9), and some smaller Fibonacci level like 23.6% or 38.2% as opposed to 50%-61.8% that I’d need for my thoughts of dropping back to that triple top area.

Regardless of the EW count I’m still leaning toward my forecast of a dip to 2085 area Monday/Tuesday, up to 2130 area and then down to 2060-2070 zone to retest the breakout point that has taken us up to the current new highs.  That’s my forecast for now and I’m sticking too it!  LOL.


P.S.  I installed a new commenting system so now you can use Disqus, WordPress, Facebook, or Google Plus to leave your thoughts on the market.  I’ll set it to default to show the Disqus comments as that’s what I’ve had on the blog since I started it in late 2009.  Unfortunately you’ll have to click on each of the 4 icons to read (or leave) comments using each of them as it does not combine them all together.  There could be some comments under each one so click on all of them to see what’s going on…  Thanks.

Outlook For The Stock Market In 2015

Will we get another crash this year?

I think we’ll at least see a 20%+ correction, but crash… probably not.

(to watch on youtube:

I guess if the correction is fast enough you might call it a mini-crash, but the next BIG Crash is still a couple of years off I believe.  I’m looking for an early pullback in January/February and then a push back up into mid-summer, with July being the most likely month to top out in.  What I’m looking for is a move similar to the 2011 drop that bottomed at 1101.54 SPX on August 8th, then bounced and made another lower low on October 3rd of 1074.77 which most elliottwave chartists call “Primary Wave 2” down with the current rally up since then being one very long Primary Wave 3 up.

So we are looking for a Primary Wave 4 down this year and it should be 20%+ if it’s going to be similar to P2 down.  This monthly chart tells us a lot from a technical point of view.  We can clearly see the MACD’s losing momentum and looking ready to go negative soon.  How long it takes is just a guess but I think we’ll have at least one month close down (probably this January) and then a few positive months into mid-summer before losing the zero line on that MACD chart.  Possibly we tread along it for the first half of 2015 staying between zero and maybe +5 or so?


Looking at the rising channel we can see that lower blue line is coming in around 1750 which I believe we could very well see hit later this year.  While it’s possible that it breaks and we go down and hit the horizontal support level just under 1600 from the two prior tops in 2000 and 2007 I suspect they won’t let it drop that far.  Remember, there is very likely one more very larger “blow off top” rally coming (Primary Wave 5) that should top out in 2017 sometime… so I don’t think they’ll let the market collapse too far this year.

Medium Term Outlook

Clearly we have already started selling off this January as I write this post so that’s no big surprise.  Looking at the weekly chart we the MACD’s going negative and price level still inside the rising wedge.  Back in October of 2014 we seen the market breakdown through that lower trendline of support but rally back above it before the week closed out… saving the market once again from a much bigger collapse.


We notice now that the MA 40 is around 1974 on the SPX in this chart and that’s just slightly above that lower support line on the rising wedge.  So, if they plan on rallying up to new higher highs into mid-summer they need to hold that zone on a weekly close to avoid a bigger drop.  However, the monthly chart looks much weaker this time around then back in October when they pierced it once, which leads me to speculate that the support line won’t hold this time if it’s broken.  My guess is that we’ll hold it on the first hit, then lose it later this month or early February after riding the support for a few weeks.

By letting the trendline break with a deeper correction they can then have a more sustainable up move afterwards.  It would create a new channel and level of support for the bulls and give them the opportunity to rally into mid-summer to backtest the broken trendline on the current rising wedge, which would of course be at a much higher level by then.

This is the best scenario for the bulls I think as without a decent correction I just don’t think they will be able to rally up to 2100-2200 like they want to do.  Trying to stay inside that rising wedge all the way out to mid-summer (where I suspect we’ll top at) will be a tough feat for the bulls… especially with the threat that Janet Yellen will speak of a future interest rate rising happening in the near future.  While I don’t know if they will actually raise it this year just the hint of it will be enough to scare the bulls and excite the bears.

As we all know the market rallies and sells off in front of any planned events and not when they actually happen.  It’s the old “sell the rumor, buy the news” saying that keeps the market always doing something today in anticipation of something in the future.  This is why the market is always on edge every time the FED’s release the minutes of the latest FOMC meetings.

So from a technical point of view, combined with the fear of some future interest rate hike, it won’t be likely that the market can continue rising until mid-summer while staying inside that wedge.  It’s getting too bearish on the monthly chart now to support the weekly holding that lower support trendline.  This is why I think it will break this time around and then rally back up later this year for the possible backtest.

The monthly chart has support from the MA 20 at 1868 area, which “could” be the zone that we’ll see this January, February, or March before turning back up to rally hard looking for that higher high into mid-summer.  If they don’t allow the market to correct that far and instead manipulate it to stay inside the rising wedge on the weekly chart then I don’t think we’ll see much of a higher high into mid-summer.  At that point I’ll lower the odds of seeing 2200+ and forecast that we’ll end somewhere in the 2100 area with a lot of sideways range bound trading between now and that top.

On the flip side if they allow the deeper correction then I’d expect to see 2200+ in mid-summer with a more steady rally happening along the way as opposed to the range bound wild swings up and down we’ve been having over the last several months.  While this range is over a 100 points wide right now I think it will end if they just allow a bigger correction to happen… as therefore a more powerful rally can start.  Failure to allow the correction means we’ll likely see more of these wild and crazy moves up and down until summer while they try to stay inside that rising wedge.

Short Term

While it’s been a very steady and controlled move down this week the daily chart is getting oversold and due for a bigger rally here soon then the one day (or intraday) moves we’ve recently had.  The short term support is at the 200 day moving average around 1965, which could be hit this week if they are going to do a “flush out” move before bouncing.  It lines up nicely with a double bottom area of 1972 from December 16th, 2014 which should add to the support as well.  It’s an obvious level that everyone see’s and is currently acting like a magnet for the market, drawing it closer every day it seems.

However, we all know that when something it very well seen by the masses SkyNet will usually do the opposite so the sheep lose money again.  So that “flush out” move to that zone should be tricky and fool the sheep so they get shaken out of their positions at a lost.  How will SkyNet do it?  That’s a great question and one that I can’t answer unfortunately.

It could gap down to that zone Thursday morning and reverse back up all day squeezing the bears that are expecting a crash, and continue that squeeze into Friday recovering a large amount of the move down, while making all those bears holding January 16th puts expire worthless and futures traders start buying back their shorts at a lost (which is how the bulls get these huge rallies in the first place).

Or they could just rally it up from the current level staying above that obvious target zone and pushing that thrust move down until next week or the week after.  I’m thinking (guessing… speculating) that a nasty solid (or almost solid) red candle bar close on the weekly chart for this week isn’t something they want to happen as it will then increase the odds of the following week tanking even deeper and breaking the 40 MA around 1974 on the weekly chart.  Some how I get the feeling they will start a squeeze from the current levels (falling short of hitting the 200 DMA of 1965 and/or the double bottom of 1972) and save the move down lower for next week and/or the week after.

I think the 200 DMA will not be the short term bottom before a bigger bounce.  It doesn’t line up to me.  I see SkyNet fooling the sheep with a break of that zone to a lower level.  While I’m sure there will be a bounce from it as the big boys buy it I don’t think it will hold as the low for them to rally up to new all time highs from.  I think that we’ll see a short lived bounce and then another push lower into the end of this month.


I’m guessing will bottom around the next Legatus meeting January 29th-31st, 2015… which also is the same time frame of another FOMC meeting (  Too much coincidence for me to think a big turn in the market won’t happen during that time period.  Therefore I think we’ll bounce this week and hold the 40 MA on the weekly and the lower rising trendline on that rising wedge, and then over the next 2 weeks into the end of January we’ll see a break of that line with a target zone of 1750, 1820, or 1868 being hit.

The 1750 estimate is from the monthly chart as that’s where the lower trendline is on the rising channel.  I give it low odds of hitting but it’s still possible.   The 1820 area is from the October 15th, 2014 low and would be of course create a double bottom.  I give it medium odds of being hit.  The 1868 level is from the 20 MA on the monthly chart and it makes the most sense too me of being hit due to the expected turn date zone of being at the end of this month.

It would also fool a lot of sheep that (once at that zone level) would naturally be staying short expecting to exit and go long at the double bottom of 1820… which brings us back to the current market level today as being in a similar zone of just 20-40 points shy of another expected double bottom where the sheep would again want to exit their shorts and go long.  Since SkyNet’s job is to steal the money from the sheep I find it unlike to be hit this week as I previously suggested.

It’s all about mis-direction as you know.  Anything too obvious to happen simply won’t happen… at least not when everyone is expecting it to happen.  Therefore I’m looking to be fooled as that’s SkyNet’s only way to profit… and it does it very well.  After we rally up next week to get everyone bullish again we’ll be looking for the sell off to continue into the Legatus/FOMC date zone.