I think the next few weeks will be choppy in a 200 point range up and down. August is when I think we see an important high before a pullback of 8-10% into September.
My birthday is August 10th, so I’m right behind you it seems. I’ll be 60 but feel like I’m 40. Happy birthday to you my old friend.
I’d say we’ve be at a high into the 6th, not a low. The 12th is the next FOMC meeting, so I suspect that we’ll pullback into it. The CPI also is out on the 12th, so we might chop with a downward bias into that date and then we should see a stronger move after it. Up or down, I don’t know? But it we pullback deep enough then it will be a buy of course.
I think we’ll be rangebound for several weeks as the daily and weekly charts just don’t support a new leg up to 6000+ starting yet. I still think that at some point next month we’ll hit that downside FP and then we’ll start a real rally.
Lots of “turns” happen around holidays, so we could be just starting that turn down a little early. It’s not an exact science but if we rally up today for a lower high the market could collapse next week. It’s also common for a “turn” around the end of any month, or beginning of the next one. So a bottom could come next Friday.
We’ll likely swing a 100 points up and down after it, but I’m thinking that the best way to trick the most is to go down first and retrace all the down move (or 90%+ of it) by the close tomorrow. This will have everyone shorting the CPI shaken out and throwing in the towel on any real correction. But then on Thursday we tank for real after the jobs number, which most aren’t really paying much attention too. I don’t know if it happens like this or not but it sure would fool a lot of traders.
It’s went a lot higher then I thought it would, that’s for sure. If I didn’t have the FP’s on the SPY I’d be looking for just a higher low in the coming 2-3 weeks. But since I have the FP’s I have to be open for them to be hit on the decline. I think most everyone is given up on a lower low and is just looking for a higher one, like maybe 50% of the rally up?
That could be a good indicator that they will go make a lower low and hit the FP, as now no one is expecting it to happen. As long as the decline isn’t too big or fast in the beginning everyone will keep buying the move down expecting the higher low.
I know that’s exactly what I would do if I didn’t have the FP, but since I have it I think we will hit it on this next pullback. It will be important to see it go slow though as we don’t want anyone to get bearish until it breaks the low and flushes to hit the FP.
Now if it doesn’t happen I’ll have to conclude that Yahoo FP’s aren’t valid and only the one’s I get on Think or Swim are. But I just find it hard to believe that both of those FP’s are not real ones. They only lasted one day and both pointed to the same zone. I haven’t seen anymore of them and I’ve been checking ever day now. So this will be a test for Yahoo, and if it fails I’ll stop looking for them there.
My wave count would agree with you that we could top for my last wave sometime nice week. When I don’t know… maybe Wednesday? Hard too predict that, but if we drop hard on Tuesday for the PPI then they can use the CPI the following day to rally it back up to squeeze out the shorts. Then the drop can start for real and might last into the end of the month.
I think the next few weeks will be choppy in a 200 point range up and down. August is when I think we see an important high before a pullback of 8-10% into September.
My birthday is August 10th, so I’m right behind you it seems. I’ll be 60 but feel like I’m 40. Happy birthday to you my old friend.
I do see a pullback coming but it could be just another “higher low”, as I see 2 FET’s now around the same zone. http://reddragonleo.com/wp-content/uploads/2024-06-12-14_31_52-_ES_XCME-Charts.png
I’d say we’ve be at a high into the 6th, not a low. The 12th is the next FOMC meeting, so I suspect that we’ll pullback into it. The CPI also is out on the 12th, so we might chop with a downward bias into that date and then we should see a stronger move after it. Up or down, I don’t know? But it we pullback deep enough then it will be a buy of course.
I think we’ll be rangebound for several weeks as the daily and weekly charts just don’t support a new leg up to 6000+ starting yet. I still think that at some point next month we’ll hit that downside FP and then we’ll start a real rally.
Lots of “turns” happen around holidays, so we could be just starting that turn down a little early. It’s not an exact science but if we rally up today for a lower high the market could collapse next week. It’s also common for a “turn” around the end of any month, or beginning of the next one. So a bottom could come next Friday.
The site should be fixed now. I updated it and it required more memory, so I had to get my hosting company increase it.
We’ll likely swing a 100 points up and down after it, but I’m thinking that the best way to trick the most is to go down first and retrace all the down move (or 90%+ of it) by the close tomorrow. This will have everyone shorting the CPI shaken out and throwing in the towel on any real correction. But then on Thursday we tank for real after the jobs number, which most aren’t really paying much attention too. I don’t know if it happens like this or not but it sure would fool a lot of traders.
It’s went a lot higher then I thought it would, that’s for sure. If I didn’t have the FP’s on the SPY I’d be looking for just a higher low in the coming 2-3 weeks. But since I have the FP’s I have to be open for them to be hit on the decline. I think most everyone is given up on a lower low and is just looking for a higher one, like maybe 50% of the rally up?
That could be a good indicator that they will go make a lower low and hit the FP, as now no one is expecting it to happen. As long as the decline isn’t too big or fast in the beginning everyone will keep buying the move down expecting the higher low.
I know that’s exactly what I would do if I didn’t have the FP, but since I have it I think we will hit it on this next pullback. It will be important to see it go slow though as we don’t want anyone to get bearish until it breaks the low and flushes to hit the FP.
Now if it doesn’t happen I’ll have to conclude that Yahoo FP’s aren’t valid and only the one’s I get on Think or Swim are. But I just find it hard to believe that both of those FP’s are not real ones. They only lasted one day and both pointed to the same zone. I haven’t seen anymore of them and I’ve been checking ever day now. So this will be a test for Yahoo, and if it fails I’ll stop looking for them there.
My wave count would agree with you that we could top for my last wave sometime nice week. When I don’t know… maybe Wednesday? Hard too predict that, but if we drop hard on Tuesday for the PPI then they can use the CPI the following day to rally it back up to squeeze out the shorts. Then the drop can start for real and might last into the end of the month.
I’m starting to think we won’t hit the FP until the end of this month. So yeah, it’s too early for a bigger down move to start yet.