It’s James Deen’s 28th birthday tomorrow, star of the Canyons, my 2nd or 3rd best film of the year. Lindsay Lohan is 27 years 7months5days old tomorrow.
My top film of the year: Rush followed by The Canyons and Hunger Games.
Rush: The German Grand Prix of August 1, 1976 depicted in the film was 13,703 days ago tomorrow.
I think we are going to tag that 1775-1780 spx area tomorrow and the drop on Monday… but I think it will only be a B wave down with today’s move starting the A wave up. Then probably a C wave up on Tuesday to complete the entire wave 2 up. Could hit 1800-1810 area on the 11th-12th before rolling back down again.
I still think there needs to be a final washout. Trading day wise the market was due for a bottom at 23 tds but the correction was really too shallow at just under -6% to really be a bottom. Yellen doesn’t speak until Tuesday so there is room for 2 days down.
I am getting some contra trollish indications that there will be a decline tomorrow. I guess DeMark is the new Prechter. Throw him on to CNBC (and explain the double ninen analog) just prior to juicing the markets. Well the analog comparison is toast so the operators can now open the trap door.
It is 2-7 tomorrow and guess what happened on this date 85 years ago???
I’m going to move my target for a low to Friday. This is about where the 377 year cycle should kick in.
We haven’t gotten the washout I’ve been expecting and certain indicators are still muddling back and forth in negative territory but not really oversold yet. A certain component of a certain indicator reversed back down today while the indicator finally dropped below its 50 day average. The Nasdaq version is actually even more negative in both indicators.
There’s a lot going on overseas overnight tonight (actually early morning) and it is 3 years 9 months from a certain event.(1372 days) 31 weeks from July 4 as well. And the final washout from a certain analog to a certain historical epoch did occur on the Thursday Friday of the first week of the new month.
I’ve been reading some recaps of Tom DeMark’s remarks today and he is incorrect on his trading day count. Today is 24 TDs. He seems to be indicating that a decline over the next two days would bring on the watershed event. I disagree. I see next week as super bullish as the new Fed chairman will be conducting some important speeches in D.C. which should be greeted by the standard meltups in the markets.
I’m going to low my upside target bounce to around the 1770-1780 area as we’ve yet to find a short term bottom and bounce. Based on what I’m now see I’m expecting the rally to start tomorrow or Friday, but it should only be a small choppy A wave up and B wave down (to put in a higher low).
Then the C wave up should happen Monday and end Tuesday morning somewhere in the 1770-1780 SPX zone. Therefore I believe Tuesday the 11th will be the top of a very short lived wave 2 up with the entire move from 1850 down to the current low being the wave 1 down.
If so, then Tuesday should be the best spot to short before the crash wave 3 down starts. I guess it could start this Friday the 7th but there is usually one quick wave up to shake out a few bears and get some bulls long. It should be fast and up hard, but end just as quickly.
Possibly Obama says something positive over the weekend to spark this strong bounce? Since a lot of bears will hold their shorts over the weekend I’d think there would be head fake move up before the crash. I’m counting today’s move down as a smaller 5th wave down inside a medium 5th wave down (that started at the 1798 high), inside a larger wave 1 down from the 1850 high.
The downside target is the 1725-1730 area to end this final smaller 5th wave down, and medium 5th wave down and larger wave 1 down. So, the entire wave 1 should end in that zone and allow for a larger wave 2 up.
This larger wave 2 up really shouldn’t last more then 2-3 days even though the larger wave 1 down lasted over 3 weeks. If we were still in a bullish phase then the wave 2 up could last over a week, but since we are in a bearish phase now any rally will be shorted hard.
This coming crash wave is going to scare a lot of people and I’m sure I’ll be one of them. I just have to keep focused and remember that my downside target low should hit in about 3 weeks, which is around the end of February. So by the 28th I’d look to sell. My target is around 1500 area on the SPX.
I’m thinking now that based on the charts we should rally into mid to late next week. This implies that we almost (or are?) finished with the first larger Wave 1 down from the 1850 high and will soon be starting the larger Wave 2 up.
Since the Wave 1 down took about 3 weeks we should have around one week up for the Wave 2… which should be choppy and look like some type of ABC pattern when finished. This pushes out the 7th as a likely top and moves it to next week sometime.
If this is correct they must squeeze out the bears in this wave 2 up and that means they must go above 1800 SPX. I don’t know how high or what date we will top but next week is the more likely time period to try to get short before the larger Wave 3 down starts.
Of course is all off the table if we make a new high above 1850, but from a technical stand point the damage that has been done doesn’t support that theory. Whatever the upside target is next week I think it’s a HUGE shorting opportunity.
I’m actually praying this doesn’t happen but it’s really looking bad on the charts right now. And with the Fed pulling out money from the market twice since late last year it doesn’t look like this one is going to be another “Bear Fake-out” like in the past.
We have been given the “approximate” date and road map so we really must take this one very serious this time. Past Legatus meeting have had “turns” in the market either during the meeting or shortly after the meeting. This time I think it will be shortly after the meeting as that makes more sense with the charts.
Throw in the fact that the free money supply of $85 Billion has been reduced to $65 Billion with the last two $10 Billion Dollar cuts and it all spells disaster!
It’s pretty simple here now… either we rally into this coming Friday the 7th and put in a lower high around 1810 area or we continue down in the 7th and put in a bottom. If we continue down then the Legatus meeting will be a turn to the upside with a new rally starting which should continue into July.
If we start climbing back up tomorrow and tag 1810 area then that would setup a massive wave C down starting next Monday and continuing for 3 weeks or more. I don’t know which one is going to happen as today went deeper then I expected. It’s a toss of a coin at this point.
ES chart update: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2014/02/s-500-futures-chart-analysis.html
It’s James Deen’s 28th birthday tomorrow, star of the Canyons, my 2nd or 3rd best film of the year. Lindsay Lohan is 27 years 7months5days old tomorrow.
My top film of the year: Rush followed by The Canyons and Hunger Games.
Rush: The German Grand Prix of August 1, 1976 depicted in the film was 13,703 days ago tomorrow.
I think we are going to tag that 1775-1780 spx area tomorrow and the drop on Monday… but I think it will only be a B wave down with today’s move starting the A wave up. Then probably a C wave up on Tuesday to complete the entire wave 2 up. Could hit 1800-1810 area on the 11th-12th before rolling back down again.
I still think there needs to be a final washout. Trading day wise the market was due for a bottom at 23 tds but the correction was really too shallow at just under -6% to really be a bottom. Yellen doesn’t speak until Tuesday so there is room for 2 days down.
I am getting some contra trollish indications that there will be a decline tomorrow. I guess DeMark is the new Prechter. Throw him on to CNBC (and explain the double ninen analog) just prior to juicing the markets. Well the analog comparison is toast so the operators can now open the trap door.
It is 2-7 tomorrow and guess what happened on this date 85 years ago???
I’m going to move my target for a low to Friday. This is about where the 377 year cycle should kick in.
We haven’t gotten the washout I’ve been expecting and certain indicators are still muddling back and forth in negative territory but not really oversold yet. A certain component of a certain indicator reversed back down today while the indicator finally dropped below its 50 day average. The Nasdaq version is actually even more negative in both indicators.
There’s a lot going on overseas overnight tonight (actually early morning) and it is 3 years 9 months from a certain event.(1372 days) 31 weeks from July 4 as well. And the final washout from a certain analog to a certain historical epoch did occur on the Thursday Friday of the first week of the new month.
I’ve been reading some recaps of Tom DeMark’s remarks today and he is incorrect on his trading day count. Today is 24 TDs. He seems to be indicating that a decline over the next two days would bring on the watershed event. I disagree. I see next week as super bullish as the new Fed chairman will be conducting some important speeches in D.C. which should be greeted by the standard meltups in the markets.
I’m going to low my upside target bounce to around the 1770-1780 area as we’ve yet to find a short term bottom and bounce. Based on what I’m now see I’m expecting the rally to start tomorrow or Friday, but it should only be a small choppy A wave up and B wave down (to put in a higher low).
Then the C wave up should happen Monday and end Tuesday morning somewhere in the 1770-1780 SPX zone. Therefore I believe Tuesday the 11th will be the top of a very short lived wave 2 up with the entire move from 1850 down to the current low being the wave 1 down.
If so, then Tuesday should be the best spot to short before the crash wave 3 down starts. I guess it could start this Friday the 7th but there is usually one quick wave up to shake out a few bears and get some bulls long. It should be fast and up hard, but end just as quickly.
Possibly Obama says something positive over the weekend to spark this strong bounce? Since a lot of bears will hold their shorts over the weekend I’d think there would be head fake move up before the crash. I’m counting today’s move down as a smaller 5th wave down inside a medium 5th wave down (that started at the 1798 high), inside a larger wave 1 down from the 1850 high.
The downside target is the 1725-1730 area to end this final smaller 5th wave down, and medium 5th wave down and larger wave 1 down. So, the entire wave 1 should end in that zone and allow for a larger wave 2 up.
This larger wave 2 up really shouldn’t last more then 2-3 days even though the larger wave 1 down lasted over 3 weeks. If we were still in a bullish phase then the wave 2 up could last over a week, but since we are in a bearish phase now any rally will be shorted hard.
This coming crash wave is going to scare a lot of people and I’m sure I’ll be one of them. I just have to keep focused and remember that my downside target low should hit in about 3 weeks, which is around the end of February. So by the 28th I’d look to sell. My target is around 1500 area on the SPX.
I’m thinking now that based on the charts we should rally into mid to late next week. This implies that we almost (or are?) finished with the first larger Wave 1 down from the 1850 high and will soon be starting the larger Wave 2 up.
Since the Wave 1 down took about 3 weeks we should have around one week up for the Wave 2… which should be choppy and look like some type of ABC pattern when finished. This pushes out the 7th as a likely top and moves it to next week sometime.
If this is correct they must squeeze out the bears in this wave 2 up and that means they must go above 1800 SPX. I don’t know how high or what date we will top but next week is the more likely time period to try to get short before the larger Wave 3 down starts.
Of course is all off the table if we make a new high above 1850, but from a technical stand point the damage that has been done doesn’t support that theory. Whatever the upside target is next week I think it’s a HUGE shorting opportunity.
I’m actually praying this doesn’t happen but it’s really looking bad on the charts right now. And with the Fed pulling out money from the market twice since late last year it doesn’t look like this one is going to be another “Bear Fake-out” like in the past.
We have been given the “approximate” date and road map so we really must take this one very serious this time. Past Legatus meeting have had “turns” in the market either during the meeting or shortly after the meeting. This time I think it will be shortly after the meeting as that makes more sense with the charts.
Throw in the fact that the free money supply of $85 Billion has been reduced to $65 Billion with the last two $10 Billion Dollar cuts and it all spells disaster!
SPY Analysis: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2014/02/spy-analysis-before-opening-bell.html
It’s pretty simple here now… either we rally into this coming Friday the 7th and put in a lower high around 1810 area or we continue down in the 7th and put in a bottom. If we continue down then the Legatus meeting will be a turn to the upside with a new rally starting which should continue into July.
If we start climbing back up tomorrow and tag 1810 area then that would setup a massive wave C down starting next Monday and continuing for 3 weeks or more. I don’t know which one is going to happen as today went deeper then I expected. It’s a toss of a coin at this point.
Dow Jones chart update: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2014/02/dow-jones-testing-200-day-sma.html