Since we have been selling off for a week now in front of the announcement of the Fed tapering another $10 Billion (which they just did with the FOMC minutes being released) you have to ask yourself if we have “sold the rumor and will buy the news” just like they do with stocks?
You know they love to “buy the rumor” (of expected good earnings) on some stock a week or so before they announce them. Then once they turn out to be good (as expected) they “sell the news”. Only this time I think the opposite is happening and we are about to start a rally up to at least that 1810 area for starters. They are holding the market up right now above the Monday low of 1772 SPX and that’s a “tell-tale” sign that they are luring in bears before a squeeze.
It’s a tough call either way Seawind. Just a feeling more then anything that they will squeeze the bears after the FOMC meeting and rally up to that 1810 area. Most everyone seems bearish on that meeting so you have to think that they will do the opposite.
Of course Thursday should then “also” do the opposite of what most traders will be thinking at the close today. So if Bernanke says something really positive then traders “should” be thinking that that selling is over with.
That’s when you would drop the market one more time into a final 5th wave down to end the whole first larger wave 1 down from the 1850 high. Then you rally all of next week while all the traders have flipped to bearish again at the bottom of that 5th wave.
These people are masters at tricking the sheep and that scenario makes the most sense to me… if I were a gangster like them.
Let me also add that while I think “long” is the way to go right now I’d still exit around 1810 area to re-evaluate the charts again. I’m still not sure on this 5th wave down scenario? If completed then we rally for awhile… and by that I mean a week probably.
If the 5th wave down isn’t finished then we should drop one more time from the 1810 area of resistance. This time it should break the current low of 1772 SPX and possibly hit 1750 area as previously suggested.
This is a tricky area right now but I do believe they will rally up from the FOMC meeting. The question will be… “will it hold”? That I can’t answer yet. I will say that there is NO positive divergence yet in the short term charts. This implies another lower low yet to come… and then a rally all of next week.
Long is the way to go! Looks like we came close to our 1810 SPX area after the bell yesterday as the futures soared up to 1800. Then this morning they dumped them and put in a higher low of 1768.50 ES. Clearly they didn’t want the bears to short at 1810 SPX area so they did the move overnight when they couldn’t take a position.
I was expecting an A wave up from the 1772.95 SPX low a few days ago to hit the 1810 area, and the a larger wave 5 down to break that low. This current move up from 1772.95 looks like a wave 4 up and inside it we have a 3 or 5 wave pattern. The A wave up started yesterday and I think we are in the B wave down this morning.
That leaves a C wave up to complete the larger wave 4 up, which I now suspect they will do after the FOMC meeting. Too many people are now expecting a big dump after Bernanke speaks so I’m thinking they will fool us all again and actually rally it up afterwards.
So, at this point I think long is the way to go until that 1810 area is reached. Then we’ll see if that appears to be the end of the wave 4 up or if it gets extended into a 5 wave pattern instead of a 3 wave pattern. If it ends up “not” being an ABC wave up then everything changes and we could actually have completed the move down from the 1850 high to the 1772 low and are on our way back up to make a new high.
Yeah, that sounds crazy with the charts looking so bearish but you know how they like to fool everyone. Then there’s the possibility that this move down this morning was truncated 5th down. That means the whole down move is over for at least a week. We could rip up much higher then everyone expects.
This is a common practice by them to get everyone bearish and then squeeze them to new all time highs. While I’m not sure one way or the other on the new highs I firmly believe long is the way to go for awhile. Look to the 7th of next week before even thinking about shorting big again.
Then go short and lose your shirt. Odds favor a nice move up from here. I don’t know the future and no one does. I can only go with the odds.
blah blah blah. Does anyone else see the pattern here? Has this site ever been right with any market call? Ever?
Since we have been selling off for a week now in front of the announcement of the Fed tapering another $10 Billion (which they just did with the FOMC minutes being released) you have to ask yourself if we have “sold the rumor and will buy the news” just like they do with stocks?
You know they love to “buy the rumor” (of expected good earnings) on some stock a week or so before they announce them. Then once they turn out to be good (as expected) they “sell the news”. Only this time I think the opposite is happening and we are about to start a rally up to at least that 1810 area for starters. They are holding the market up right now above the Monday low of 1772 SPX and that’s a “tell-tale” sign that they are luring in bears before a squeeze.
It’s a tough call either way Seawind. Just a feeling more then anything that they will squeeze the bears after the FOMC meeting and rally up to that 1810 area. Most everyone seems bearish on that meeting so you have to think that they will do the opposite.
Of course Thursday should then “also” do the opposite of what most traders will be thinking at the close today. So if Bernanke says something really positive then traders “should” be thinking that that selling is over with.
That’s when you would drop the market one more time into a final 5th wave down to end the whole first larger wave 1 down from the 1850 high. Then you rally all of next week while all the traders have flipped to bearish again at the bottom of that 5th wave.
These people are masters at tricking the sheep and that scenario makes the most sense to me… if I were a gangster like them.
Thanks Mr. Red….hmmmm 100 dma.
Kudos to Marcel….nice and thanks!
All my best; Seawind
Let me also add that while I think “long” is the way to go right now I’d still exit around 1810 area to re-evaluate the charts again. I’m still not sure on this 5th wave down scenario? If completed then we rally for awhile… and by that I mean a week probably.
If the 5th wave down isn’t finished then we should drop one more time from the 1810 area of resistance. This time it should break the current low of 1772 SPX and possibly hit 1750 area as previously suggested.
This is a tricky area right now but I do believe they will rally up from the FOMC meeting. The question will be… “will it hold”? That I can’t answer yet. I will say that there is NO positive divergence yet in the short term charts. This implies another lower low yet to come… and then a rally all of next week.
Long is the way to go! Looks like we came close to our 1810 SPX area after the bell yesterday as the futures soared up to 1800. Then this morning they dumped them and put in a higher low of 1768.50 ES. Clearly they didn’t want the bears to short at 1810 SPX area so they did the move overnight when they couldn’t take a position.
I was expecting an A wave up from the 1772.95 SPX low a few days ago to hit the 1810 area, and the a larger wave 5 down to break that low. This current move up from 1772.95 looks like a wave 4 up and inside it we have a 3 or 5 wave pattern. The A wave up started yesterday and I think we are in the B wave down this morning.
That leaves a C wave up to complete the larger wave 4 up, which I now suspect they will do after the FOMC meeting. Too many people are now expecting a big dump after Bernanke speaks so I’m thinking they will fool us all again and actually rally it up afterwards.
So, at this point I think long is the way to go until that 1810 area is reached. Then we’ll see if that appears to be the end of the wave 4 up or if it gets extended into a 5 wave pattern instead of a 3 wave pattern. If it ends up “not” being an ABC wave up then everything changes and we could actually have completed the move down from the 1850 high to the 1772 low and are on our way back up to make a new high.
Yeah, that sounds crazy with the charts looking so bearish but you know how they like to fool everyone. Then there’s the possibility that this move down this morning was truncated 5th down. That means the whole down move is over for at least a week. We could rip up much higher then everyone expects.
This is a common practice by them to get everyone bearish and then squeeze them to new all time highs. While I’m not sure one way or the other on the new highs I firmly believe long is the way to go for awhile. Look to the 7th of next week before even thinking about shorting big again.
ES Chart update: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2014/01/es-chart-update_29.html
APPLE Analysis after closing bell: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2014/01/apple-analysis-after-closing-bell_29.html
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