Yes, I think the level to short is the 1810-1815 area on the SPX… and I think we’ll see it near the open. It only makes sense to put in the high early in the day as I’m sure there will be some selling before the FOMC meeting at 2:15pm.
And while I do expect a shakeout move to the upside right after the minutes of the meeting are announced it’s not worth taking that chance if we see the 1810-1815 area hit in the morning.
Maybe the FOMC “shakeout” doesn’t happen and the market just drops from whatever Bernanke says (or doesn’t say?). Either way, the shorting zone should be in that area and waiting for a quick move up after the meeting is too risky to chance in my opinion.
The break of the 1752 should happen as I could easily see 1700-1725 being hit. I don’t know if we will get it this week or not but I certainly think one should be short before Bernanke speaks.
Nasdaq version got to the same -66 area yesterday as it did back in 2000 but it did this after it’s flash crash, then rallied to the 0 line. Nasdaq futures are higher now but I wouldn’t be surprised if everything gets reversed tomorrow after a gap up higher…. by the Fed decision…..it is 1-29 after all.
There should be a rally to 3550 $ndx…..then let’s see how things play out.
Only thing is is a known misdirection artist is calling for the same scenario.
Then Tom DeMark is calling for a break of SP 1752 following an upclose to say that a heavy decline has begun.
Geccko, we should rally tomorrow (at the open most likely) to produce some kind of smaller wave 3 up. The target is that 1810 SPX area. Then I’d expect the market to drop into a smaller wave 4 down into the FOMC meeting.
Once it comes out I’d expect the “mis-direction” first move to be to the upside to quickly complete the wave 5 up and take out bears that put stops right above the 1810 area. Then I think we’ll rollover and sell off into Thursday. But I think we’ll stay above the current low of 1772 and close over 1784 for the end of the week.
Nasdaq didn’t pop like I expected today but it did put in an inside day. Unusual action for a fed day and the state of the union address day. Makes me worried that something in tonight’s speech might ignite things. I need to look at some data. A certain little component of a certain indicator was putting in a triple bottom low over the last few months and is bouncing today. Maybe there’s room for a bounce to the O area.
Gold and gold stocks in particular have been following another historical epoch in the markets right down to the exact timeline. In another Friday during the third week of January, a certain group of indices topped and dropped down to their early year lows only to rally back to their Jan highs by early March. I don’t know if they can match that analog if a certain little ritual plays out in the meantime but gold and gold stocks are pretty beaten down already.
Well, it appears the Seahawks spent their first year in the NFC West. (1976) But I still consider them an AFC team. They spent the majority of their history in the AFC. 1977-2001.
They are owned by one of the Microsoft co-founders so are they representative of the tech bubble??? Apparently, the SF 49ers are the most bullish team based on the SuperBowl indicator so that maybe a reason for their failure against the PED Hawks.
Email me again…
Hi Red, I am still lurking around here. I sent in my request for the update from Ali. No response yet.
Yes, I think the level to short is the 1810-1815 area on the SPX… and I think we’ll see it near the open. It only makes sense to put in the high early in the day as I’m sure there will be some selling before the FOMC meeting at 2:15pm.
And while I do expect a shakeout move to the upside right after the minutes of the meeting are announced it’s not worth taking that chance if we see the 1810-1815 area hit in the morning.
Maybe the FOMC “shakeout” doesn’t happen and the market just drops from whatever Bernanke says (or doesn’t say?). Either way, the shorting zone should be in that area and waiting for a quick move up after the meeting is too risky to chance in my opinion.
The break of the 1752 should happen as I could easily see 1700-1725 being hit. I don’t know if we will get it this week or not but I certainly think one should be short before Bernanke speaks.
Nasdaq version got to the same -66 area yesterday as it did back in 2000 but it did this after it’s flash crash, then rallied to the 0 line. Nasdaq futures are higher now but I wouldn’t be surprised if everything gets reversed tomorrow after a gap up higher…. by the Fed decision…..it is 1-29 after all.
There should be a rally to 3550 $ndx…..then let’s see how things play out.
Only thing is is a known misdirection artist is calling for the same scenario.
Then Tom DeMark is calling for a break of SP 1752 following an upclose to say that a heavy decline has begun.
Geccko, we should rally tomorrow (at the open most likely) to produce some kind of smaller wave 3 up. The target is that 1810 SPX area. Then I’d expect the market to drop into a smaller wave 4 down into the FOMC meeting.
Once it comes out I’d expect the “mis-direction” first move to be to the upside to quickly complete the wave 5 up and take out bears that put stops right above the 1810 area. Then I think we’ll rollover and sell off into Thursday. But I think we’ll stay above the current low of 1772 and close over 1784 for the end of the week.
Nasdaq didn’t pop like I expected today but it did put in an inside day. Unusual action for a fed day and the state of the union address day. Makes me worried that something in tonight’s speech might ignite things. I need to look at some data. A certain little component of a certain indicator was putting in a triple bottom low over the last few months and is bouncing today. Maybe there’s room for a bounce to the O area.
Bank of America Trend update: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2014/01/bank-of-america-trend-update.html
ES Chart analysis: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2014/01/es-support-and-resistance-levels.html
Gold and gold stocks in particular have been following another historical epoch in the markets right down to the exact timeline. In another Friday during the third week of January, a certain group of indices topped and dropped down to their early year lows only to rally back to their Jan highs by early March. I don’t know if they can match that analog if a certain little ritual plays out in the meantime but gold and gold stocks are pretty beaten down already.
Well, it appears the Seahawks spent their first year in the NFC West. (1976) But I still consider them an AFC team. They spent the majority of their history in the AFC. 1977-2001.
They are owned by one of the Microsoft co-founders so are they representative of the tech bubble??? Apparently, the SF 49ers are the most bullish team based on the SuperBowl indicator so that maybe a reason for their failure against the PED Hawks.