By Thursday the 17th the market will be very overbought on the daily chart and ready to rollover again. I suspect all the lower time frames will be overbought by then too. With the media remaining positive over the deal and the market continuing to ignore a “no deal” outcome we have the perfect storm setting up.
Anyone still long on the 17th is just asking to lose it. The only move left is some exhaustion “Hail Mary” push up at the last minute that has very little chances of holding as we are just too overbought right now and especially by Thursday. While they could push on up to a double top I wouldn’t bet on it. It’s a short today through Thursday as it could turn down at anytime. Layering into to shorts over the next 2 days stands the best chances of success I think. We are missing that final wave C down and the 200dma is a magnet just waiting to be touched.
Today was a “5” trading day and important highs have been occurring on them and this isn’t an ordinary 5 either. It is 100 tds from the May 22 high and 50 tds from the early August high so a potential 50-50 td cycle in place. We have also three white bars in a row which can be a topping pattern. A component of a certain little indicator popped above the 0 line on Friday and rose marginally today which isn’t denoting major strength in the markets despite the rise the last few days.
The certain little indicator turned and dropped below its 5 and 8 day moving averages 7 trading sessions ago and if one looks at the charts once the occurrence takes place, the indicator tends to trend in a downward fashion for quite a spell. (The 5 crossed below the 8 early last week to complete the trend down in motion) Today, the indicator has reached its declining 5 day average so time for an abrupt reversal back down? Haven’t looked at the 60 min indicators yet but they were showing some divergences on Friday but I am sure they are showing complete divergences at today’s close.
I’ve been looking at a correlation to the late May secondary high of 2011 (with the initial Bin Laden top on May 2) to now but it might be even later in the game than that since a certain little indicator is at such a low level.
Yes Peter it could? It’s hard to know the exact date for the top but we are close now I think and a wise thing to do would be to start layering into short positions at each various move up. We know it’s close but it could tank at any moment. I’d rather have a 1/3 or 1/4 short position on then miss the move entirely. If it continues up into the 17th then I’d just add more shorts.
Market looks to me like it’s going to top here really soon… possibly on the 17th as I discussed in the post here on the blog? We had a wave 4 down this morning with the gap open, and now we are in a wave 5 up… which makes a larger B wave up from the 1646 SPX low.
There is a rising trendline of resistance coming in around 172.20 SPY (around 1718-1720 SPX) which could be the target high? Possibly a little dip tomorrow and chop on Wednesday… then a final move up to that level on the 17th to top out the B wave up?
That leaves the C wave down to follow and it should go toward the 200dma around 1600-1610 area before ending. Of course we could have already topped as this 5th wave up inside the B wave could end at anytime now.
When was the last time they told the truth in the main stream media? “Senate leaders closing in on a deal: http://www.cnbc.com/id/101102555” … which tells me traders are getting more long the market, and that should worry you if you are also long. Remember, the only traders that make money are the one’s on the opposite side of the masses.
FP stands for “fake print”… meaning the market never really traded at that level. Some people call them “computer glitches” but I think they are sometimes signals to the insiders as to where they plan to take the market to at some future point in time.
Unfortunately I can’t read the code to know the “when” part but they are still something one should watch and be aware of. Since the futures are currently down that FP could be the low for Monday or even the opening price? Don’t know which but just look for the FP to be hit at some point in the near future.
By Thursday the 17th the market will be very overbought on the daily chart and ready to rollover again. I suspect all the lower time frames will be overbought by then too. With the media remaining positive over the deal and the market continuing to ignore a “no deal” outcome we have the perfect storm setting up.
Anyone still long on the 17th is just asking to lose it. The only move left is some exhaustion “Hail Mary” push up at the last minute that has very little chances of holding as we are just too overbought right now and especially by Thursday. While they could push on up to a double top I wouldn’t bet on it. It’s a short today through Thursday as it could turn down at anytime. Layering into to shorts over the next 2 days stands the best chances of success I think. We are missing that final wave C down and the 200dma is a magnet just waiting to be touched.
ES Chart analysis: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2013/10/es-support-and-resistance-levels_15.html
Today was a “5” trading day and important highs have been occurring on them and this isn’t an ordinary 5 either. It is 100 tds from the May 22 high and 50 tds from the early August high so a potential 50-50 td cycle in place. We have also three white bars in a row which can be a topping pattern. A component of a certain little indicator popped above the 0 line on Friday and rose marginally today which isn’t denoting major strength in the markets despite the rise the last few days.
The certain little indicator turned and dropped below its 5 and 8 day moving averages 7 trading sessions ago and if one looks at the charts once the occurrence takes place, the indicator tends to trend in a downward fashion for quite a spell. (The 5 crossed below the 8 early last week to complete the trend down in motion) Today, the indicator has reached its declining 5 day average so time for an abrupt reversal back down? Haven’t looked at the 60 min indicators yet but they were showing some divergences on Friday but I am sure they are showing complete divergences at today’s close.
I’ve been looking at a correlation to the late May secondary high of 2011 (with the initial Bin Laden top on May 2) to now but it might be even later in the game than that since a certain little indicator is at such a low level.
Yes Peter it could? It’s hard to know the exact date for the top but we are close now I think and a wise thing to do would be to start layering into short positions at each various move up. We know it’s close but it could tank at any moment. I’d rather have a 1/3 or 1/4 short position on then miss the move entirely. If it continues up into the 17th then I’d just add more shorts.
keep one thing in mind red, friday marks 18 days of the shutdown. could be viewed as 1+8= completion
Market looks to me like it’s going to top here really soon… possibly on the 17th as I discussed in the post here on the blog? We had a wave 4 down this morning with the gap open, and now we are in a wave 5 up… which makes a larger B wave up from the 1646 SPX low.
There is a rising trendline of resistance coming in around 172.20 SPY (around 1718-1720 SPX) which could be the target high? Possibly a little dip tomorrow and chop on Wednesday… then a final move up to that level on the 17th to top out the B wave up?
That leaves the C wave down to follow and it should go toward the 200dma around 1600-1610 area before ending. Of course we could have already topped as this 5th wave up inside the B wave could end at anytime now.
Notice how the FP seen Friday was hit at the open today? http://screencast.com/t/poDzUyzkPmmN
When was the last time they told the truth in the main stream media? “Senate leaders closing in on a deal: http://www.cnbc.com/id/101102555” … which tells me traders are getting more long the market, and that should worry you if you are also long. Remember, the only traders that make money are the one’s on the opposite side of the masses.
FP stands for “fake print”… meaning the market never really traded at that level. Some people call them “computer glitches” but I think they are sometimes signals to the insiders as to where they plan to take the market to at some future point in time.
Unfortunately I can’t read the code to know the “when” part but they are still something one should watch and be aware of. Since the futures are currently down that FP could be the low for Monday or even the opening price? Don’t know which but just look for the FP to be hit at some point in the near future.
What does this mean? FP