It’s common to go slightly higher in the last moment of the bulls life Marcel. This is done to get the retail sheep to believe that it’s never going back down so they will exit all shorts and go long… just like your statement.
This is nothing more then a “buy the rumor, sell the news” event. Whether they make a deal or not doesn’t matter at this point as the charts are just too overbought to hold up here at these levels. It will rollover soon, maybe tomorrow as I suggested in this blog post.
I stated that I wasn’t sure if we would bottom into the 17th or top… and it looks too me like it’s going to be a top. If you are short you should have been layering into them with 1/4 positions or something since Monday. The next move down should make you plenty if you layered correctly as I still see the 200dma as the coming bottom.
By Thursday the 17th the market will be very overbought on the daily chart and ready to rollover again. I suspect all the lower time frames will be overbought by then too. With the media remaining positive over the deal and the market continuing to ignore a “no deal” outcome we have the perfect storm setting up.
Anyone still long on the 17th is just asking to lose it. The only move left is some exhaustion “Hail Mary” push up at the last minute that has very little chances of holding as we are just too overbought right now and especially by Thursday. While they could push on up to a double top I wouldn’t bet on it. It’s a short today through Thursday as it could turn down at anytime. Layering into to shorts over the next 2 days stands the best chances of success I think. We are missing that final wave C down and the 200dma is a magnet just waiting to be touched.
NDX right at 61.8% retrace from bubble peak 4816 to 795 low
It’s common to go slightly higher in the last moment of the bulls life Marcel. This is done to get the retail sheep to believe that it’s never going back down so they will exit all shorts and go long… just like your statement.
This is nothing more then a “buy the rumor, sell the news” event. Whether they make a deal or not doesn’t matter at this point as the charts are just too overbought to hold up here at these levels. It will rollover soon, maybe tomorrow as I suggested in this blog post.
I stated that I wasn’t sure if we would bottom into the 17th or top… and it looks too me like it’s going to be a top. If you are short you should have been layering into them with 1/4 positions or something since Monday. The next move down should make you plenty if you layered correctly as I still see the 200dma as the coming bottom.
SPY update: http://screencast.com/t/XYnvmGptc7w
I think you were terribly wrong. Next stop 1740s and beyond.
Coca Cola Trend update: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2013/10/coca-cola-trend-update.html
Bulls should buy this dip as there’s plenty of room left on the BULL EXPRESS… http://reddragonleo.com/wp-content/uploads/bull-train-overloaded.jpg
“Relax! Government won’t run out of money Thursday”… If that headline doesn’t scare you nothing will. http://www.cnbc.com/id/101113997
VXX breakout signals a top in the market soon… http://screencast.com/t/SFeXXYtXa
By Thursday the 17th the market will be very overbought on the daily chart and ready to rollover again. I suspect all the lower time frames will be overbought by then too. With the media remaining positive over the deal and the market continuing to ignore a “no deal” outcome we have the perfect storm setting up.
Anyone still long on the 17th is just asking to lose it. The only move left is some exhaustion “Hail Mary” push up at the last minute that has very little chances of holding as we are just too overbought right now and especially by Thursday. While they could push on up to a double top I wouldn’t bet on it. It’s a short today through Thursday as it could turn down at anytime. Layering into to shorts over the next 2 days stands the best chances of success I think. We are missing that final wave C down and the 200dma is a magnet just waiting to be touched.
ES Chart analysis: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2013/10/es-support-and-resistance-levels_15.html