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... Earl of

Carl broke his silence. No trade though.

Just to say he sees /ES dropping to the 1165-1168 area before marching higher.

1175 now, so that's a 7-10 point drop from here.

... Earl of

I Bought some TZA at $6.74. Selling it at $6.69.

That's my trading plan.

No idea what I will do if it goes up.

... SC

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IYT:SPY&p=D&yr

Here is a IYT : SPY plot over the past years. The relationship is all over the lot. On what basis do you claim SPY needs to be confirmed by IYT? IYT outperformed SPY in 08, right up to the crash. There is a confirmation that went burst in major way.

To answer your question: There is no specific time period. Each case is different. Each situation is different. What we need to do, with EVERY INDICATOR, PATTERN, TOOLS, WAVE COUNTs, and whatever esle, is to look back into the past, amd see how they had hold up under different market condition.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IYT:SPY&p=D&st

Look at Sept 2006. IYT not confirming SPY. Yet, SPY continued to rally.

... dreadwin

Okay — how much of a time lag do you think is prudent? IYT set a high in Jan, same day as SPY (and did not confirm the later higher high set by DIA and $RUT), set a recent low the same day as SPY in Feb.

... dreadwin

Yes. 🙁

... SC

You are looking at too short a time frame there. Kind of like people seeing HS pattern in their 1 minute chart. lol

... Earl of

Dreadwin,

Nice chart 🙂

I agree that the chart clearly says $RUT is going to go down. No question about that.

All the folks likely to go short, short here like mad.
$RUT goes up (the unseen hand).
Shorts cover, driving $RUT up.

Feeling anti-government today.

... gcocks83

Dread, Still in DRV?

... Earl of

Nice charts.

IWM has been rising that line up for a while, and can ride it up a few more weeks or months. No sign yet that it won't do that.