TNA has a SELL-IF (sell if conditions are right tomorrow) signal today. The candlestick today was a Black Spinning Top (complete indecision between the Bulls & Bears). The last two candlesticks formed a Bearish Harami Pattern. Reliability of this pattern is low, and requires confirmation.
TNA was down 1.0% on the first day since the buy signal confirmation yesterday. AmericanBulls price points have TNA slightly up.
TZA has a BUY-IF (buy if conditions are right tomorrow) signal today. The candlestick today was White Spinning Top (complete indecision between the Bulls & Bears). The last two candlesticks formed a Bullish Harami Pattern. Reliability of this pattern is low, and requires confirmation.
TZA was up 1.0% on the first day since the sell signal confirmation yesterday. AmericanBulls has this at down 0.4%, using their buy and sell points.
Summary of $RUT based ETFs: SELL-IF: IWM (1x), TNA (3x) Both low reliability Bearish Harami SELL-IF: UWM (2x) High reliability Bearish Dark Cloud Cover SELL-IF: $RUT (1x) not very high reliability Bearish Harami Cross BUY-IF: RWM (-1x), TWM (-2x), TZA (-3x) All low reliability Bullish Harami
Action for tomorrow: Possibly buy TZA, Possibly sell TNA.
That chart has looked that way for awhile (16 month chart), and could look that way for many weeks to come — just needs to climb that wall (of worry) and stay away from that line 🙂
TZA opened up 0.4%. Gap was filled. TZA was up 1.4% at it’s high, and closed up 1.0%.
We are in a New Moon Trade, which favors TZA. After three days, this trade is down 4.3%. AmericanBulls issued a sell March 17th so this trade was in cash today and did not benefit from the 1% rise in TZA. This trade will buy TZA again once AmericanBulls issues a confirmed BUY signal, or an unconfirmed high probability BUY-IF signal.
Volume for TZA was the lowest of the last 8 days.
$RVX (VIX for $RUT) closed up 0.2% with TZA up 1.0%. No divergence.
TZA has now been up 3 of the last 12 days.
The low for TZA today was $6.96. The low yesterday was $6.93 which is the lowest TZA price ever.
Ultimate Oscillator for TZA bottomed at 20 nineteen trading days ago and has generally risen since then but has remained below 50 and is currently 34. Indicating continued weakness for TZA. Today’s value was highest the previous 6 days, so the Ultimate Oscillator is in a mild up trend. Good for TZA.
Bollinger Bands for $RVX (VIX for $RUT): today’s candle rose to re-enter the congestion area above the bottom Bollinger Band. The lower Bollinger band is now falling. MACD has crossed from below. Looks like $RVX is mildly falling, generally.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT: The doji candle for $RUT made no upward progress today, getting farther from the rising upper Bollinger Band. Perhaps this is part of a topping process for $RUT. Good for TZA.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT:$RVX ($RUT vs VIX for $RUT): today’s candle fell back into the congestion area. The upper Bollinger Band seems to be rising. This is beginning to look like a topping process, which would be good for TZA.
TZA had a higher high, higher low and higher close – good for TZA.
Money flow for the Total Stock Market was $250 million flowing out of the market, good for TZA
I will post the AmericanBulls candlestick interpretation a bit later.
21 day hit on March 7th. It usually takes up to 10 days to form a topping out process after the pivot top. 10 days will be tomorrow but I am giving it until Monday just to torture myself some more.
The view from Americanbulls
TNA has a SELL-IF (sell if conditions are right tomorrow) signal today. The candlestick today was a Black Spinning Top (complete indecision between the Bulls & Bears). The last two candlesticks formed a Bearish Harami Pattern. Reliability of this pattern is low, and requires confirmation.
TNA was down 1.0% on the first day since the buy signal confirmation yesterday. AmericanBulls price points have TNA slightly up.
TZA has a BUY-IF (buy if conditions are right tomorrow) signal today. The candlestick today was White Spinning Top (complete indecision between the Bulls & Bears). The last two candlesticks formed a Bullish Harami Pattern. Reliability of this pattern is low, and requires confirmation.
TZA was up 1.0% on the first day since the sell signal confirmation yesterday. AmericanBulls has this at down 0.4%, using their buy and sell points.
Summary of $RUT based ETFs:
SELL-IF: IWM (1x), TNA (3x) Both low reliability Bearish Harami
SELL-IF: UWM (2x) High reliability Bearish Dark Cloud Cover
SELL-IF: $RUT (1x) not very high reliability Bearish Harami Cross
BUY-IF: RWM (-1x), TWM (-2x), TZA (-3x) All low reliability Bullish Harami
Action for tomorrow: Possibly buy TZA, Possibly sell TNA.
That chart has looked that way for awhile (16 month chart), and could look that way for many weeks to come — just needs to climb that wall (of worry) and stay away from that line 🙂
Tim on SOH has a nice looking chart of $rut up. Check it out.
I heard today that on opex volume move in morning and than gets quiet in the afternoon. I will probably hold my positions through the weekend.
Looks like you are playing it right.
I agree. Better to watch the trend.
I am in my position still.
TZA opened up 0.4%. Gap was filled. TZA was up 1.4% at it’s high, and closed up 1.0%.
We are in a New Moon Trade, which favors TZA.
After three days, this trade is down 4.3%. AmericanBulls issued a sell March 17th so this trade was in cash today and did not benefit from the 1% rise in TZA. This trade will buy TZA again once AmericanBulls issues a confirmed BUY signal, or an unconfirmed high probability BUY-IF signal.
Volume for TZA was the lowest of the last 8 days.
$RVX (VIX for $RUT) closed up 0.2% with TZA up 1.0%. No divergence.
TZA has now been up 3 of the last 12 days.
The low for TZA today was $6.96. The low yesterday was $6.93 which is the lowest TZA price ever.
Ultimate Oscillator for TZA bottomed at 20 nineteen trading days ago and has generally risen since then but has remained below 50 and is currently 34. Indicating continued weakness for TZA. Today’s value was highest the previous 6 days, so the Ultimate Oscillator is in a mild up trend. Good for TZA.
Bollinger Bands for $RVX (VIX for $RUT): today’s candle rose to re-enter the congestion area above the bottom Bollinger Band. The lower Bollinger band is now falling. MACD has crossed from below. Looks like $RVX is mildly falling, generally.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT: The doji candle for $RUT made no upward progress today, getting farther from the rising upper Bollinger Band. Perhaps this is part of a topping process for $RUT. Good for TZA.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT:$RVX ($RUT vs VIX for $RUT): today’s candle fell back into the congestion area. The upper Bollinger Band seems to be rising. This is beginning to look like a topping process, which would be good for TZA.
TZA had a higher high, higher low and higher close – good for TZA.
Money flow for the Total Stock Market was $250 million flowing out of the market, good for TZA
I will post the AmericanBulls candlestick interpretation a bit later.
Overall, it looks like TZA might rise tomorrow.
21 day hit on March 7th. It usually takes up to 10 days to form a topping out process after the pivot top. 10 days will be tomorrow but I am giving it until Monday just to torture myself some more.
lol.. Most likely the reasons are :
1. N too small.
2. Random coincidence.
3. Number of degrees of freedom being too low.
Basically if you draw enough lines and cycles, eventually you will be able to come up with something that explains everything.