Also huge put volume on the SPY today but it could be a hedge as well which could be bad for bears – just depends on whether it was a straight position or a hedge.
Thanks for all the good info Red. From my guestimate based on Jack's cyclical cycle, we could start selling off as early as tomorrow or as late as early next week. I have the same thoughts as you – either they sell off from here, or they take it to a point above 1150 where many will be forced to cover. I would imagine that would send the S&P to at least 1160. Hope it's the first scenario. Whichever one it is, I believe the market is headed lower in the coming weeks. P3 theory out the window if we make new highs.
TNA is a HOLD (wait for a possible SELL-IF signal after the close on Wednesday, for a possible sell at some point Thursday). Today was a White Candlestick, indicating a normal up day. TNA is now up 42% since the buy signal on Feb 9th. TNA was $36.69 at the time, and closed today at $52.38.
TZA is a WAIT (wait for a possible BUY-IF signal after the close on Wednesday, for a possible buy at some point Thursday). Today was a Black Candlestick, indicating a normal down day. TZA is now down 31% since the sell signal on Feb 9th. TZA was $11.04 at the time, and closed today at $7.55.
TNA opened down 0.9%. First down open in 7 days. Filled that gap right away and was up 3.3% at the high. TNA closed up 1.1%.
We are in a Full Moon Trade, which favors TNA. After seven days, this trade is up 17.2%.
Volume for TNA was fairly high (3rd highest in 16 trading days)
$RVX (VIX for $RUT) closed 2.4% higher with TNA up 1.1%. 2nd divergence in a row, as these normally go in different directions.
TNA has been up 18 of the past 20 days.
The high for TNA today was $53.56, highest high since November of 2008
Ultimate Oscillator for TNA peaked at 78 eleven trading days ago and has generally fallen since then but has remained above 50 and is currently 69. Indicating continued strength for TNA. There was a bit of a divergence as the Ultimate Oscillator dropped 2 points while TNA rose 1.1%, but that sort of divergence happened last week and TNA continued to rise. Two days in a row for this divergence.
Bollinger Bands for $RVX (VIX for $RUT): today’s candle closed higher & farther from the lower band and the lower Bollinger band is **off the chart** but seems to be falling. Hard to read, but looks like $RVX is rising, bad for TNA. This very thing happened last week and TNA kept rising. 2nd day in a row for this.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT: The white candle for $RUT rose along side the rising upper Bollinger Band, indicating that $RUT is rising. Good for TNA
Bollinger Bands for $RUT:$RVX ($RUT vs VIX for $RUT): today’s candle dropped, the 2nd such drop in 10 trading days, and 2nd day in a row. Not sure what to make of this. Perhaps this indicates TNA might drop tomorrow (same warning as yesterday).
Overall, it looks like TNA continues to distance itself from any congestion and might continue rising tomorrow. Divergences are stacking up, but TNA keeps rising.
Also huge put volume on the SPY today but it could be a hedge as well which could be bad for bears – just depends on whether it was a straight position or a hedge.
Thanks for all the good info Red. From my guestimate based on Jack's cyclical cycle, we could start selling off as early as tomorrow or as late as early next week. I have the same thoughts as you – either they sell off from here, or they take it to a point above 1150 where many will be forced to cover. I would imagine that would send the S&P to at least 1160. Hope it's the first scenario. Whichever one it is, I believe the market is headed lower in the coming weeks. P3 theory out the window if we make new highs.
Carl sold both units at 1143.25
SPY controlling TL update
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/44198…
this chart is the reason why the operators haven't let the $SPX run yet like they have with the $RUT and $NDX
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/43590…
consecutive monthly closes above that purple line and we're going to test the all time highs,
what would cause such a move; currency event
Now do I think this is a very probable scenario; no
The time element co-relational to the regulatory aspect of the market can be very telling
SPY 1/21 -1/22/2010 = 2 trading days
114.27 – 109.09 on ~ 690,000,000
SPY 2/16/2010 – 3/5/2010 = 14 trading days
108.86 – 114.34 on roughly 3.5x total volume of 1/21-1/22
The view from Americanbulls
TNA is a HOLD (wait for a possible SELL-IF signal after the close on Wednesday, for a possible sell at some point Thursday). Today was a White Candlestick, indicating a normal up day. TNA is now up 42% since the buy signal on Feb 9th. TNA was $36.69 at the time, and closed today at $52.38.
TZA is a WAIT (wait for a possible BUY-IF signal after the close on Wednesday, for a possible buy at some point Thursday). Today was a Black Candlestick, indicating a normal down day. TZA is now down 31% since the sell signal on Feb 9th. TZA was $11.04 at the time, and closed today at $7.55.
Summary: The candles today changed nothing.
TNA opened down 0.9%. First down open in 7 days. Filled that gap right away and was up 3.3% at the high. TNA closed up 1.1%.
We are in a Full Moon Trade, which favors TNA.
After seven days, this trade is up 17.2%.
Volume for TNA was fairly high (3rd highest in 16 trading days)
$RVX (VIX for $RUT) closed 2.4% higher with TNA up 1.1%. 2nd divergence in a row, as these normally go in different directions.
TNA has been up 18 of the past 20 days.
The high for TNA today was $53.56, highest high since November of 2008
Ultimate Oscillator for TNA peaked at 78 eleven trading days ago and has generally fallen since then but has remained above 50 and is currently 69. Indicating continued strength for TNA. There was a bit of a divergence as the Ultimate Oscillator dropped 2 points while TNA rose 1.1%, but that sort of divergence happened last week and TNA continued to rise. Two days in a row for this divergence.
Bollinger Bands for $RVX (VIX for $RUT): today’s candle closed higher & farther from the lower band and the lower Bollinger band is **off the chart** but seems to be falling. Hard to read, but looks like $RVX is rising, bad for TNA. This very thing happened last week and TNA kept rising. 2nd day in a row for this.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT: The white candle for $RUT rose along side the rising upper Bollinger Band, indicating that $RUT is rising. Good for TNA
Bollinger Bands for $RUT:$RVX ($RUT vs VIX for $RUT): today’s candle dropped, the 2nd such drop in 10 trading days, and 2nd day in a row. Not sure what to make of this. Perhaps this indicates TNA might drop tomorrow (same warning as yesterday).
Overall, it looks like TNA continues to distance itself from any congestion and might continue rising tomorrow. Divergences are stacking up, but TNA keeps rising.
Carl is good at this. So far 🙂
Great post Red.
Carl and you had a better day than me.