TNA opened down 0.9%. First down open in 7 days. Filled that gap right away and was up 3.3% at the high. TNA closed up 1.1%.
We are in a Full Moon Trade, which favors TNA. After seven days, this trade is up 17.2%.
Volume for TNA was fairly high (3rd highest in 16 trading days)
$RVX (VIX for $RUT) closed 2.4% higher with TNA up 1.1%. 2nd divergence in a row, as these normally go in different directions.
TNA has been up 18 of the past 20 days.
The high for TNA today was $53.56, highest high since November of 2008
Ultimate Oscillator for TNA peaked at 78 eleven trading days ago and has generally fallen since then but has remained above 50 and is currently 69. Indicating continued strength for TNA. There was a bit of a divergence as the Ultimate Oscillator dropped 2 points while TNA rose 1.1%, but that sort of divergence happened last week and TNA continued to rise. Two days in a row for this divergence.
Bollinger Bands for $RVX (VIX for $RUT): today’s candle closed higher & farther from the lower band and the lower Bollinger band is **off the chart** but seems to be falling. Hard to read, but looks like $RVX is rising, bad for TNA. This very thing happened last week and TNA kept rising. 2nd day in a row for this.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT: The white candle for $RUT rose along side the rising upper Bollinger Band, indicating that $RUT is rising. Good for TNA
Bollinger Bands for $RUT:$RVX ($RUT vs VIX for $RUT): today’s candle dropped, the 2nd such drop in 10 trading days, and 2nd day in a row. Not sure what to make of this. Perhaps this indicates TNA might drop tomorrow (same warning as yesterday).
Overall, it looks like TNA continues to distance itself from any congestion and might continue rising tomorrow. Divergences are stacking up, but TNA keeps rising.
As for the SPY put volume… I wouldn't rely too much on that as you are right, it could be just a hedge. However, that large stock, (not options), sell of Goldman is telling us that they, or someone, is locking in profits before a possible sell off.
After the sell off is over, I do think we could see new high over the spring and summer though….
1131-1145 estimate today for /ES (14 points) 1134 -1145.25 actual today (11.25 points) Missed the low by 3 points, nailed the high.
Trades: Bought 1 unit of /ES at 1138.50 yesterday, sold it today at 1143.25 (gain of 4.75 points) Bought 1 unit of /ES at 1138.75 today, sold it today at 1143.25 (gain of 4.50 points)
Also huge put volume on the SPY today but it could be a hedge as well which could be bad for bears – just depends on whether it was a straight position or a hedge.
Thanks for all the good info Red. From my guestimate based on Jack's cyclical cycle, we could start selling off as early as tomorrow or as late as early next week. I have the same thoughts as you – either they sell off from here, or they take it to a point above 1150 where many will be forced to cover. I would imagine that would send the S&P to at least 1160. Hope it's the first scenario. Whichever one it is, I believe the market is headed lower in the coming weeks. P3 theory out the window if we make new highs.
TNA opened down 0.9%. First down open in 7 days. Filled that gap right away and was up 3.3% at the high. TNA closed up 1.1%.
We are in a Full Moon Trade, which favors TNA.
After seven days, this trade is up 17.2%.
Volume for TNA was fairly high (3rd highest in 16 trading days)
$RVX (VIX for $RUT) closed 2.4% higher with TNA up 1.1%. 2nd divergence in a row, as these normally go in different directions.
TNA has been up 18 of the past 20 days.
The high for TNA today was $53.56, highest high since November of 2008
Ultimate Oscillator for TNA peaked at 78 eleven trading days ago and has generally fallen since then but has remained above 50 and is currently 69. Indicating continued strength for TNA. There was a bit of a divergence as the Ultimate Oscillator dropped 2 points while TNA rose 1.1%, but that sort of divergence happened last week and TNA continued to rise. Two days in a row for this divergence.
Bollinger Bands for $RVX (VIX for $RUT): today’s candle closed higher & farther from the lower band and the lower Bollinger band is **off the chart** but seems to be falling. Hard to read, but looks like $RVX is rising, bad for TNA. This very thing happened last week and TNA kept rising. 2nd day in a row for this.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT: The white candle for $RUT rose along side the rising upper Bollinger Band, indicating that $RUT is rising. Good for TNA
Bollinger Bands for $RUT:$RVX ($RUT vs VIX for $RUT): today’s candle dropped, the 2nd such drop in 10 trading days, and 2nd day in a row. Not sure what to make of this. Perhaps this indicates TNA might drop tomorrow (same warning as yesterday).
Overall, it looks like TNA continues to distance itself from any congestion and might continue rising tomorrow. Divergences are stacking up, but TNA keeps rising.
Carl is good at this. So far 🙂
Great post Red.
Carl and you had a better day than me.
As for the SPY put volume… I wouldn't rely too much on that as you are right, it could be just a hedge. However, that large stock, (not options), sell of Goldman is telling us that they, or someone, is locking in profits before a possible sell off.
After the sell off is over, I do think we could see new high over the spring and summer though….
Carl at day’s end:
1131-1145 estimate today for /ES (14 points)
1134 -1145.25 actual today (11.25 points)
Missed the low by 3 points, nailed the high.
Trades:
Bought 1 unit of /ES at 1138.50 yesterday, sold it today at 1143.25 (gain of 4.75 points)
Bought 1 unit of /ES at 1138.75 today, sold it today at 1143.25 (gain of 4.50 points)
Grade B
update 4:01 SPY's containment pt. remains in control
update 4:01 est SPY was rejected @ controlling TL
Also huge put volume on the SPY today but it could be a hedge as well which could be bad for bears – just depends on whether it was a straight position or a hedge.
Thanks for all the good info Red. From my guestimate based on Jack's cyclical cycle, we could start selling off as early as tomorrow or as late as early next week. I have the same thoughts as you – either they sell off from here, or they take it to a point above 1150 where many will be forced to cover. I would imagine that would send the S&P to at least 1160. Hope it's the first scenario. Whichever one it is, I believe the market is headed lower in the coming weeks. P3 theory out the window if we make new highs.