The decline expected has run its course. The distribution detected 2/19-2/22 (the basis for my VST bearish call on Mon) has bottomed on 2-23. Today's decline is not accompanied by more distribution. Accumulation is showing up, in tech stocks, small stocks, and foreign stocks.
If the accumulation continues, then the turn dates everyone is thinking of, is probably going to be turning up. We shall see when we get there. I am closing out my shorts, but not going long just yet. I like to see more evidence of accumulation. Usually you have one extra day of accumulation, before the move starts. But, as usual, this time it may be different.
If the market fails to reach the upper BB (S&P did not hit it yet) and then closes below the middle BB, than the odds favor a testing of the LOWER BB before we hit the upper again. This is bearish but depends on the close today.
no we aren't going to close over 1115.10, which is actually bad news for the bears because no major reaction has ever originated on the monthly since 1990 without the setup i talked about yesterday
I would have preferred we got a close over 1115.10 because this slow moving market is growing old.
We need a close tomorrow in the 1070 region in order to terminate a bullish setup on the monthly.
Be careful with TNA today, $RUT is starting to catch up with $SPX on the downside.
The decline expected has run its course. The distribution detected 2/19-2/22 (the basis for my VST bearish call on Mon) has bottomed on 2-23. Today's decline is not accompanied by more distribution. Accumulation is showing up, in tech stocks, small stocks, and foreign stocks.
If the accumulation continues, then the turn dates everyone is thinking of, is probably going to be turning up. We shall see when we get there. I am closing out my shorts, but not going long just yet. I like to see more evidence of accumulation. Usually you have one extra day of accumulation, before the move starts. But, as usual, this time it may be different.
for those interested in the currency correlation
UUP Daily
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/43877…
I remember what Bollinger of the BB said.
If the market fails to reach the upper BB (S&P did not hit it yet) and then closes below the middle BB, than the odds favor a testing of the LOWER BB before we hit the upper again. This is bearish but depends on the close today.
Isn't this reasoning correct?
the window to the spy 107.34 area opens if we get consecutive hourly closes below the max contain pt. on the 60 min.
for the 11:30 print it's @ 109.29, no selling will stick unless it breaks the max contain pt.
the Spike low @ 9:45 est looks like the LOD to me
So what are we looking for… by the end of the day? Price target to confirm a head lower, or higher?
update 10:30 est
SPY 60 min backtest of max contain pt. held
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/43876…
the spike low @ 9:45 est also backtested it's twin that it gapped over on 2/17/2010
general of the bull army aapl hasn't broken it's tuesdays lows yet
I didn't see it either Al, but String did? Look at the link he posted. Strange, that's for sure…
No fake prints on my charts (in TOS)
no we aren't going to close over 1115.10, which is actually bad news for the bears because no major reaction has ever originated on the monthly since 1990 without the setup i talked about yesterday
I would have preferred we got a close over 1115.10 because this slow moving market is growing old.
We need a close tomorrow in the 1070 region in order to terminate a bullish setup on the monthly.