I favor TNA, but leery of the divergences, and the 9 days in a row. Tends to move me to inaction. Or waiting to decide once I see where TNA opens tomorrow.
I've pretty much decided I don't want to own TNA tomorrow at any price under $44.23 — the primary pivot.
Short term movement can be attributed to many different factors with each one exerting varying degree of influence at different time. In short, impossible to know what is driving what, until after the fact. That is why all the news channels are in business.
That is a fancy way of saying I got no clue but still like to pretend that I am knowledgeable.
If you look at the daily KRE, RKH, BKX, they are looking bulllish. If you only look back over the last few years, the current pattern is very bullish. But if you look further back, you would find that bullish pattern can quickly fade away into a bearish pattern. What that tells us is that we shouldn't be jumping in joy just b/c the financials are strong. Especially since we are partying on a frozen pond… where the ice is looking a bit thin…
TZA gapped down at the open and improved some but closed down 0.6% today.
We are in a New Moon Trade (favors TZA). [ After five days, this trade is *cough* DOWN 10.4% ]
(In the recent past, moon trades has been in the area of 10% down, only to bounce back to near even by the end of the trade.)
Volume today for TZA was the lowest in 34 trading days.
$RVX (VIX for $RUT) closed 0.3% higher. This is the second day in a row that $RUT & $RVX both closed higher. (Normally, they go in opposite directions)
TZA has now been down nine days in a row.
Ultimate Oscillator was 20.81 last Friday & 21.86 today, increasing when TZA closed lower. A bit of a divergence.
Bollinger Bands for $RVX (VIX for $RUT): the lower BB was touched last Friday, but did not touch today, which might be indicating that $RVX will be rising (good for TZA).
Bollinger Bands for $RUT: the upper band rose, moving higher away from $RUT, which might be indicating that TNA will continue to rise (bad for TZA).
Overall, it looks like TZA might fall again tomorrow, but the divergences in place might be warning of a rise in TZA (finally).
Oil isn't that easy to manipulate, like the spy is. That's one of the reason's it should be a better and safer trade then the spy. I'll let you know when I ready to go short.
Thanks very much Red. I have been thinking all week of shorting oil in some fashion but can't take any more risk. I do think your trade will pay off. Keep in mind also that 80 has often proved strong resistance to oil and that's where we stand.
$DJI- DIA Daily Chart
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/43821…
I think it will find support there at that light blue line on your chart, around 23.60… and then move higher. Do you have a chart for the USO?
Dollar Chart- UUP
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/43813…
it topped on friday to the penny @ the 560, given the brick wall above it, pull back to build momentum is probably in order
I favor TNA, but leery of the divergences, and the 9 days in a row. Tends to move me to inaction. Or waiting to decide once I see where TNA opens tomorrow.
I've pretty much decided I don't want to own TNA tomorrow at any price under $44.23 — the primary pivot.
So is it heads or tails.
Nice, I think the Sun is shining brightly on that pond.
Short term movement can be attributed to many different factors with each one exerting varying degree of influence at different time. In short, impossible to know what is driving what, until after the fact. That is why all the news channels are in business.
That is a fancy way of saying I got no clue but still like to pretend that I am knowledgeable.
If you look at the daily KRE, RKH, BKX, they are looking bulllish. If you only look back over the last few years, the current pattern is very bullish. But if you look further back, you would find that bullish pattern can quickly fade away into a bearish pattern. What that tells us is that we shouldn't be jumping in joy just b/c the financials are strong. Especially since we are partying on a frozen pond… where the ice is looking a bit thin…
TZA gapped down at the open and improved some but closed down 0.6% today.
We are in a New Moon Trade (favors TZA).
[ After five days, this trade is *cough* DOWN 10.4% ]
(In the recent past, moon trades has been in the area of 10% down, only to bounce back to near even by the end of the trade.)
Volume today for TZA was the lowest in 34 trading days.
$RVX (VIX for $RUT) closed 0.3% higher. This is the second day in a row that $RUT & $RVX both closed higher. (Normally, they go in opposite directions)
TZA has now been down nine days in a row.
Ultimate Oscillator was 20.81 last Friday & 21.86 today, increasing when TZA closed lower. A bit of a divergence.
Bollinger Bands for $RVX (VIX for $RUT): the lower BB was touched last Friday, but did not touch today, which might be indicating that $RVX will be rising (good for TZA).
Bollinger Bands for $RUT: the upper band rose, moving higher away from $RUT, which might be indicating that TNA will continue to rise (bad for TZA).
Overall, it looks like TZA might fall again tomorrow, but the divergences in place might be warning of a rise in TZA (finally).
Oil isn't that easy to manipulate, like the spy is. That's one of the reason's it should be a better and safer trade then the spy. I'll let you know when I ready to go short.
Thanks very much Red. I have been thinking all week of shorting oil in some fashion but can't take any more risk. I do think your trade will pay off. Keep in mind also that 80 has often proved strong resistance to oil and that's where we stand.