When the market started to turn on Feb 11-12, I mentioned that technology and foreign stocks were leading the turn in momentum. Money is flowing out of those two sectors now. Odds are for the rally taking a breather in the coming days. Just bear in mind that it isnt the start of yet another P-3. No P-3 likely until summer.
I'm actually looking for an entry spot to short oil via the USO. It still could run a little more, as the dollar is currently falling back a little, and should continue until it finds support.
As long as the dollar is pulling back, you don't want to short oil. Once the dollar finds it's support and gets ready to rally back up, then I'd feel safer shorting oil.
I'd love to see the USO hit 40 right when the dollar finds it's support level. I think that will happen this week. I've had successfully trades every time I did one on the USO, and as long as I time my entry to correlate with the dollar, it should be another successful trade.
Look at how many March calls there are at the 40 strike price vs. how many puts there are… huge difference. (http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/opt…) There is no way those market makers are going to pay out on those calls by expiration.
I'll post the trade when I do it, but I'll be looking to buy the 40 put, and sell the 36 put (Vertical Put Spread) once the dollar bottoms, and looks like it's getting ready to rally again.
The reason that I don't short oil now, is because it's tied to the dollar in some fashion. We need the dollar to rally, so oil will tank. Add to the fact that it's extremely over extended, and you should have a nice pull back on it.
So true, so true. The only thing I can say is at least it was a down Monday. That means that at least the funds weren't buying. All indicators look toppy to me so maybe we'll get a sell off sooner. But again, that's probably just wishful thinking on my part.
I favor TNA, but leery of the divergences, and the 9 days in a row. Tends to move me to inaction. Or waiting to decide once I see where TNA opens tomorrow.
When the market started to turn on Feb 11-12, I mentioned that technology and foreign stocks were leading the turn in momentum. Money is flowing out of those two sectors now. Odds are for the rally taking a breather in the coming days. Just bear in mind that it isnt the start of yet another P-3. No P-3 likely until summer.
I really thought you sold at the high. When it ran up to 44.55 I was sure you sold out. My Tza was up a whole $133.00 on the day.
I'm actually looking for an entry spot to short oil via the USO. It still could run a little more, as the dollar is currently falling back a little, and should continue until it finds support.
As long as the dollar is pulling back, you don't want to short oil. Once the dollar finds it's support and gets ready to rally back up, then I'd feel safer shorting oil.
I'd love to see the USO hit 40 right when the dollar finds it's support level. I think that will happen this week. I've had successfully trades every time I did one on the USO, and as long as I time my entry to correlate with the dollar, it should be another successful trade.
Look at how many March calls there are at the 40 strike price vs. how many puts there are… huge difference. (http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/opt…) There is no way those market makers are going to pay out on those calls by expiration.
I'll post the trade when I do it, but I'll be looking to buy the 40 put, and sell the 36 put (Vertical Put Spread) once the dollar bottoms, and looks like it's getting ready to rally again.
The reason that I don't short oil now, is because it's tied to the dollar in some fashion. We need the dollar to rally, so oil will tank. Add to the fact that it's extremely over extended, and you should have a nice pull back on it.
Out of TNA Net gain on the day of exactly $0.00
So true, so true. The only thing I can say is at least it was a down Monday. That means that at least the funds weren't buying. All indicators look toppy to me so maybe we'll get a sell off sooner. But again, that's probably just wishful thinking on my part.
For those who browse the blog world for guidance, this site may be of interest to you.
http://garyscommonsense.blogspot.com/
IF you are looking and waiting for P-3,
http://garyscommonsense.blogspot.com/2010/02/th…
This time it may be different. So good luck to us all. Don't bet the farm, unless you got other farms.
Added TNA $44.05
I favor TNA, but leery of the divergences, and the 9 days in a row. Tends to move me to inaction. Or waiting to decide once I see where TNA opens tomorrow.
So is it heads or tails.
Nice, I think the Sun is shining brightly on that pond.