Why would he go long into major resistance? That 110.35-110.50 is some major resistance, and until it breaks, no one should be going long. The 110.50 is the 200dma, which has a 85-90% chance of holding back any advance on the first hit.
Once we sell off a little first, and go back up (if that happens… I don't know?), then it might break on the 2nd, or 3rd hit, but rarely does that happen on the first hit.
Thanks for the update SC, but before believe that the correction is over, I'd like to see the monthly and weekly charts start to roll back up. I don't see that happening anytime soon, but I'm open to the possibility of P3 not starting yet. Anything is possible.
The correction is over. Several bottom spotting signals have been confirmed. Capitulation day was Feb4. Across the board momentum changes occured last Thursday. Confirmation of resumption of up trend appeared on Feb 16.
Any dip that happens along the way to new high, is not a signal to the beginning of P3. The market is in “Buy the Dip” mode. Don't fight the tape. You can scalp your shorts. But holding shorts in hope of P3 now will get your clock cleaned.
106 total $184,918,800 107 total $146,538,100 108 total $129,169,600 109 total $128,265,700 110 total $146,956,500 111 total $186,157,300
Again, I don't know how accurate it is on the indexes (that's the spy above), but it works pretty well for the individual stocks. But, you can see by the total value that somewhere between 108 and 109 is the ideal closing price. Whether they do it or not, I don't know?
The fact that it is opx Friday might be a reason to back off a little first, and then push up next week to that final gap fill.
the dancing was initiated with the max. contain pt. on 1/22/2010 and 19 TD's later we're still dancing with the max contain pt.
what I have highlighted on the above chart is the SPY hasn't had 2 consecutive closes above it's max contain pt. since the dancing was initiated on 1/22/2010
we will know the move to fill the gap @ 1127.38 SPX has begun when we get 2 consecutive closes above the max contain pt.
today the operators opened the SPY right on its max contain pt. so today's close is extremely important as to whether it confirms the move above the max contain pt. or not
March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1088-1105. I think the ES has decisively broken out above its recent 1058-1080 trading range. The market will reach 1200 over the next three months.
Thanks Red – now I have to figure out whether to hold onto the bearish positions I already have and go along for the ride or just to reenter. The IMF is issuing gold. Thanks for your advice. You are right – we look almost overbought, but not quite there yet.
Why would he go long into major resistance? That 110.35-110.50 is some major resistance, and until it breaks, no one should be going long. The 110.50 is the 200dma, which has a 85-90% chance of holding back any advance on the first hit.
Once we sell off a little first, and go back up (if that happens… I don't know?), then it might break on the 2nd, or 3rd hit, but rarely does that happen on the first hit.
Carl went long 1099.75, sold at 1096.75 (loss of 3)
Guess he uses stops
Thanks for the update SC, but before believe that the correction is over, I'd like to see the monthly and weekly charts start to roll back up. I don't see that happening anytime soon, but I'm open to the possibility of P3 not starting yet. Anything is possible.
FYI
The correction is over. Several bottom spotting signals have been confirmed. Capitulation day was Feb4. Across the board momentum changes occured last Thursday. Confirmation of resumption of up trend appeared on Feb 16.
Any dip that happens along the way to new high, is not a signal to the beginning of P3. The market is in “Buy the Dip” mode. Don't fight the tape. You can scalp your shorts. But holding shorts in hope of P3 now will get your clock cleaned.
Bingo!!! You are onto something. You have stumbled across the truth. 🙂 Now, don't just get up and keep walking….
The current pain moved up to 109 this morning, but the 108 is almost the same. The contracts open in the last month only are as follows…
108 puts $66,584,100
108 calls $62,585,500
109 puts $39,674,400
109 calls $88,591,300
106 total $184,918,800
107 total $146,538,100
108 total $129,169,600
109 total $128,265,700
110 total $146,956,500
111 total $186,157,300
Again, I don't know how accurate it is on the indexes (that's the spy above), but it works pretty well for the individual stocks. But, you can see by the total value that somewhere between 108 and 109 is the ideal closing price. Whether they do it or not, I don't know?
The fact that it is opx Friday might be a reason to back off a little first, and then push up next week to that final gap fill.
the operators make me laugh
study this chart of the SPY & it's max contain pt. very closely
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/43680…
the dancing was initiated with the max. contain pt. on 1/22/2010 and 19 TD's later we're still dancing with the max contain pt.
what I have highlighted on the above chart is the SPY hasn't had 2 consecutive closes above it's max contain pt. since the dancing was initiated on 1/22/2010
we will know the move to fill the gap @ 1127.38 SPX has begun when we get 2 consecutive closes above the max contain pt.
today the operators opened the SPY right on its max contain pt. so today's close is extremely important as to whether it confirms the move above the max contain pt. or not
Carl Futia just now:
March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1088-1105. I think the ES has decisively broken out above its recent 1058-1080 trading range. The market will reach 1200 over the next three months.
Note: Estimate yesterday 1088-1102
Estimate today 1088-1105
Thanks Red – now I have to figure out whether to hold onto the bearish positions I already have and go along for the ride or just to reenter. The IMF is issuing gold. Thanks for your advice. You are right – we look almost overbought, but not quite there yet.
What makes you think we will rally?