Is technical analysis alone the answer? It seems that using “some” fundemental analysis aids in incorperating some common sense.
I suspect the plunge will not happen until some fundemental news surfaces, the proverbial match that lights the fire. That might be (using common sense) is retail sales AND some sort of European summit, both on thurday.
Weak retail sales can tank the S&P. And if the summit doesn't fix Greece than that will grease the skids for the Euro to tank which correlates with a downside S&P
It's true last week that the S&P tanked thurs. the day before the employment figure came out. but I think the market was factoring in the fundementals (the big revisions) beforehand.
Should have followed my original plan to buy puts just before the match was lit. Wed pm
It appears that the 15 minute chart is now trying to make a move up, that should have it reaching over bought territory around 1pm or so. The 60 minute has already peaked as is just wait on the 15 minute to rollover.
So, from now until about 1pm or so, I'm expecting the market to try an inch a little high. Could it make it too 1080? Possible, but the 60 minute chart overrides the 15, and will put downward pressure on it.
That should keep an large moves from happening. It's now just a waiting game as the 15 minute completes it's move higher. After that happens, the 15 minute chart will rollover, and the 60 minute will follow.
Add the Monthly, Weekly, and Daily for more downward pressure and we should have a nice down move in the afternoon.
That was very risky Bensjoyce… You should have never gone that far out of the money. You should have bought something at the money, or in the money. Something like the 108, or the 107, but not the 99… you'll get killed on the time decay.
You should only be doing spreads, not straight put options… especially one's “out of the money”. Only buy them “in the money” when there is so little time left.
We'll, I've made that mistake many times before, and always lost it all. But, let's just hope that you're able to make something this time. Every now and then you might get lucky?
I've been dabbleing in the markets for 20 years and I'm really bad at it. Never really had the money to get started. So in that way I never really did the markets.
It's like taking a very competative course and you have the wrong textbook, your hearing is bad and you can't see the blackboard clearly. Your screwed.
predicting “crashes” is very rarely in the relm of a good possiblilty. It usually doesn't happen the vast majority of the time. Catching crashes is not where your money is made but only on consistancy. (Who am i to talk).
Yesterday I got sucked into buying 2 S&P puts for Feb 990 strike at 270$. I only have $270 in my account. I have to make it here or else.
That's correct bensjoyce. The technicals will set up the move first, and then the news will cause the move to happen.
Is technical analysis alone the answer? It seems that using “some” fundemental analysis aids in incorperating some common sense.
I suspect the plunge will not happen until some fundemental news surfaces, the proverbial match that lights the fire. That might be (using common sense) is retail sales AND some sort of European summit, both on thurday.
Weak retail sales can tank the S&P. And if the summit doesn't fix Greece than that will grease the skids for the Euro to tank which correlates with a downside S&P
It's true last week that the S&P tanked thurs. the day before the employment figure came out. but I think the market was factoring in the fundementals (the big revisions) beforehand.
Should have followed my original plan to buy puts just before the match was lit. Wed pm
Yes ben… but what if it takes a little longer to fall to that level. It's just a big gamble, that's what I'm trying to tell you.
But if the market crashes that fast to 977 I'll be in the money.
It appears that the 15 minute chart is now trying to make a move up, that should have it reaching over bought territory around 1pm or so. The 60 minute has already peaked as is just wait on the 15 minute to rollover.
So, from now until about 1pm or so, I'm expecting the market to try an inch a little high. Could it make it too 1080? Possible, but the 60 minute chart overrides the 15, and will put downward pressure on it.
That should keep an large moves from happening. It's now just a waiting game as the 15 minute completes it's move higher. After that happens, the 15 minute chart will rollover, and the 60 minute will follow.
Add the Monthly, Weekly, and Daily for more downward pressure and we should have a nice down move in the afternoon.
That was very risky Bensjoyce… You should have never gone that far out of the money. You should have bought something at the money, or in the money. Something like the 108, or the 107, but not the 99… you'll get killed on the time decay.
You should only be doing spreads, not straight put options… especially one's “out of the money”. Only buy them “in the money” when there is so little time left.
We'll, I've made that mistake many times before, and always lost it all. But, let's just hope that you're able to make something this time. Every now and then you might get lucky?
That, I do!
I've been dabbleing in the markets for 20 years and I'm really bad at it. Never really had the money to get started. So in that way I never really did the markets.
It's like taking a very competative course and you have the wrong textbook, your hearing is bad and you can't see the blackboard clearly. Your screwed.
predicting “crashes” is very rarely in the relm of a good possiblilty. It usually doesn't happen the vast majority of the time. Catching crashes is not where your money is made but only on consistancy. (Who am i to talk).
Yesterday I got sucked into buying 2 S&P puts for Feb 990 strike at 270$. I only have $270 in my account. I have to make it here or else.
No one said this game was easy girl. You have too have big one's… if you know what I mean.
We shall see Red. I am hanging tight – thanks!