You're kidding me... right? Â Duh! Â Hell yeah they're crooked! Â I've been saying that forever! Â This is just the start of the selling. Â I took a short position today, with a Vertical Put Spread. Â I bought the May 118 put, and sold the May 113 put, for a cost of $1.04 per contract.
More on my weekend update. Â For now, the bulls had better shop quickly, before the bears all wake up and release the bulls are in their territory. Â Enjoy your weekend everyone.
Red
is it time to start watching new lows ?
It's time redvettes…
They'll be bounces along the way of course, but I think the larger (wave 2, or B retracement), will come in around the 50dma (about 1140).
Then more down to follow, with a final target around dow 10,000 and 1050-1070 spx. I do expect them to pierce 10,000 to lure in more bears. It's an important number to them, and a pierce would give them many more bears to use as fuel for the short squeeze coming.
The 2nd (possibly wave 4 retracement) could come in around major support at the 1115 spx level. Of course I'm just guessing as to where I expect a bounce, but the key thing to remember is where our final target low is.
At that point, I'll be looking to go long into the boring summer months.
Take a look at the grains
GRU DAG DBA
wonder if they are starting rotating into something we must buy
Just like gas ,we got to buy it
I posted this on Thursday
I mentioned last week that there was some similarities between Nov 08' OPX & the current market dynamics.
So far things are playing out well as we are getting a melt up in the face of incredible odds. (Nov. 08' OPX we got a melt down in the face of incredible odds) Should things continue to play out the high should be today or early tomorrow with a big reversal into fridays close.
Hopefully some of you are starting to realize the operators only have so many plays in their playbook.
Checkmate
You did indeed post that on Thursday. I should have went short on that day, and got in at a better position. But, getting in Friday around 119.70 spy area, is still at a good spot.
I think I've just been burnt so many times that I wanted to see a big down day first, before jumping short again. They have done such a great job at scaring the bears too death, that they are now well trained to NOT go short in fear of being squeezed the next day.
Reading around some of the other blogs yesterday, it's surprising to me how many “Bear Blogs” think this was only a pullback before going higher again. Some call it a wave 4 down, with wave 5 up still to come, taking us to the fib level of 1229 or something.
I'm afraid they will only realize that is really “is” the correction they've been looking for, once we bottom around dow 10,000, and 105-107 spy.
And I'm sure that's exactly the way they plan it. The bears and bulls will watch as it falls multiple days in a row, and then they will both think it's a dip, and go long when we tag the 50dma around 1140 spx or so.
A bounce will come, but be short lived. The fall will continue down to 1050-1070, at which point they would have all bailed out of their dip buying mentality and switched to the short side… only to find out that there is nasty computer virus waiting in that area, which is designed to flood the market with new fresh money, and rally it to new highs again… using the bulls and bears shorts to help feed along of course.
Red,
The market fall yesterday seemed to be related to an unexpected news event: the SEC suing GS. I have no way to know these things myself, but I heard that a lot, and didn't hear anyone refuting it.
An unexpected news event. I didn't hear of anyone predicting that news event. So, people short before the event were short for other reasons.
And, people who offered that the market might go down, made that offer for other reasons.
After the unexpected news event, I expected people to come out with stories about buying a bunch of puts and getting lucky. Or predicting that the market might fall and son-of-a-gun it actually did! WooHoo!
Nope. I heard stories of good trading yielding profits. Or people claiming they correctly called it.
I don't think you misread the situation at all when you didn't go short. I didn't see it coming. I myself was short, but not because of any thing I did right.
Everything was ripe. It just needed a catalyst to spook the market. If the conditions were all bullish, the GS thing would be shrugged off as ho-hum political gimmick that would go no where, as per Cramer.
Here is a guide to how to interpret news.
When Bullish:
“……..
Weak data – Fed eases, stocks rally.
Strong data – Strong economy, stocks rally.
Consensus data – Lower volatility, stocks rally.
Bank loses $8bn – Bad news all out of the way,stocks rally.
Oil price up -Good for energy producers, stocks rally.
Oil price down – Good for consumers, stocks rally.
$US down – Good for exporters, stocks rally.
$US up – Lower inflation, stocks rally.
Inflation up – Good for commodities, stocks rally.
Inflation down -Fed eases, stocks rally.
Climate change -Soft commodities up, stocks rally.
World ends – Good for disaster recovery companies, stocks rally. ……..”
When bearish :
“…
Weak data – Poor earnings outlook, stocks fall.
Strong data – Fed will tighten, stocks fall.
Consensus data – Already priced in, stocks fall.
Bank loses $US8bn – More bad news on the way, stocks fall.
Oil price up – Bad for consumers, stocks fall.
Oil price down – Bad for producers, stocks fall.
$US down – Bad for consumers, stocks fall.
$US up – Bad for exporters, stocks fall.
Inflation up – Fed will tighten, stocks fall.
Inflation down – Weak economy, stocks fall.
Climate change – Higher inflation, fed will tighten, stocks fall.
World ends – Bad for insurers, stocks fall. …. “
http://www.wilmott.com/blogs/satyajitdas/index….
Now that is funny… and ever so true!
Earl,
That is the essence of successful trading. You trade the setups or odds/probabilities. You never know if any single trade is going to be big win or not. You can try to minimize the loss. You place your bets according to the odds and expected payoff, the expected R. Grind it out day after day, you never know when the few big trades would come and lift the whole portfolio. Meanwhile you eat losses here and there.
That is why the 'all in” or “all or nothing” approach is not what a successful trading career is built on. But it is human nature to fall for the lottery effect. Constantly looking for that one break that would reach stardom.
The Weekly view from Americanbulls
TNA had a weekly HOLD signal last week, rose this week, and remains a Hold. The candlestick this week is a White Candlestick.
AmericanBulls has this trade starting at $44.23 on March 3rd, and this week closed at 63.54, up 43%.
TZA had a weekly WAIT signal last week, fell this week, and remains a Wait. The candlestick this week is a Black Spinning Top.
AmericanBulls last placed a SELL on TZA at $9.83 on February 19th and this week closed at $6.06, down 38%.
Summary of Positive $RUT based ETFs & a few popular ETFs & stocks (Market positive):  +8
Hold: QQQQ(up 15.2%), IWM(1x, up 12.9%), UWM(2x, up 27.6%), TNA(3x, up 43.6%), IYR(1x RE, up 15%), AAPL(up 26.4%), USO (oil, up 3.9%)
New Confirmed BUY: AMZN
Transition to Market Positive:  -1
Not Very High Reliability BUY-IF: URE(2x RE)
Transition to Market Negative:  +3
Low reliability SELL-IF: SPY, ERX(3x energy)
Not Very High Reliability SELL-IF(3rd week): DIA
Market Negative:  -4
WAIT: GS, DRN(3x RE),
New Confirmed SELL: GOOG, UCO (2x oil)
Comment: Less Bullish this week, Somewhat Bullish overall, Neutral Oil, Somewhat Bullish Energy, Bullish $RUT, Neutral Real Estate
Action for next week for TNA or TZA: None
Got a feeling we are going to about 116 then a resume up trend to 125. Then June a swing down to fill the gap at 112
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100417/ap_on_bi_ge…
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100417/ap_on_bi_ge…
Got a feeling we are going to about 116 then a resume up trend to 125. Then June a swing down to fill the gap at 112
The Weekly view from Americanbulls
TNA had a weekly HOLD signal last week, rose this week, and remains a Hold. The candlestick this week is a White Candlestick.
AmericanBulls has this trade starting at $44.23 on March 3rd, and this week closed at 63.54, up 43%.
TZA had a weekly WAIT signal last week, fell this week, and remains a Wait. The candlestick this week is a Black Spinning Top.
AmericanBulls last placed a SELL on TZA at $9.83 on February 19th and this week closed at $6.06, down 38%.
Summary of Positive $RUT based ETFs & a few popular ETFs & stocks (Market positive):  +8
Hold: QQQQ(up 15.2%), IWM(1x, up 12.9%), UWM(2x, up 27.6%), TNA(3x, up 43.6%), IYR(1x RE, up 15%), AAPL(up 26.4%), USO (oil, up 3.9%)
New Confirmed BUY: AMZN
Transition to Market Positive:  -1
Not Very High Reliability BUY-IF: URE(2x RE)
Transition to Market Negative:  +3
Low reliability SELL-IF: SPY, ERX(3x energy)
Not Very High Reliability SELL-IF(3rd week): DIA
Market Negative:  -4
WAIT: GS, DRN(3x RE),
New Confirmed SELL: GOOG, UCO (2x oil)
Comment: Less Bullish this week, Somewhat Bullish overall, Neutral Oil, Somewhat Bullish Energy, Bullish $RUT, Neutral Real Estate
Action for next week for TNA or TZA: None
Red,
The market fall yesterday seemed to be related to an unexpected news event: the SEC suing GS. I have no way to know these things myself, but I heard that a lot, and didn't hear anyone refuting it.
An unexpected news event. I didn't hear of anyone predicting that news event. So, people short before the event were short for other reasons.
And, people who offered that the market might go down, made that offer for other reasons.
After the unexpected news event, I expected people to come out with stories about buying a bunch of puts and getting lucky. Or predicting that the market might fall and son-of-a-gun it actually did! WooHoo!
Nope. I heard stories of good trading yielding profits. Or people claiming they correctly called it.
I don't think you misread the situation at all when you didn't go short. I didn't see it coming. I myself was short, but not because of any thing I did right.
Earl,
That is the essence of successful trading. You trade the setups or odds/probabilities. You never know if any single trade is going to be big win or not. You can try to minimize the loss. You place your bets according to the odds and expected payoff, the expected R. Grind it out day after day, you never know when the few big trades would come and lift the whole portfolio. Meanwhile you eat losses here and there.
That is why the 'all in” or “all or nothing” approach is not what a successful trading career is built on. But it is human nature to fall for the lottery effect. Constantly looking for that one break that would reach stardom.
That said, you got a factual observation there, and you made good points. Appreciate this kind of well thought out posts.
Everything was ripe. It just needed a catalyst to spook the market. If the conditions were all bullish, the GS thing would be shrugged off as ho-hum political gimmick that would go no where, as per Cramer.
Here is a guide to how to interpret news.
When Bullish:
“……..
Weak data – Fed eases, stocks rally.
Strong data – Strong economy, stocks rally.
Consensus data – Lower volatility, stocks rally.
Bank loses $8bn – Bad news all out of the way,stocks rally.
Oil price up -Good for energy producers, stocks rally.
Oil price down – Good for consumers, stocks rally.
$US down – Good for exporters, stocks rally.
$US up – Lower inflation, stocks rally.
Inflation up – Good for commodities, stocks rally.
Inflation down -Fed eases, stocks rally.
Climate change -Soft commodities up, stocks rally.
World ends – Good for disaster recovery companies, stocks rally. ……..”
When bearish :
“…
Weak data – Poor earnings outlook, stocks fall.
Strong data – Fed will tighten, stocks fall.
Consensus data – Already priced in, stocks fall.
Bank loses $US8bn – More bad news on the way, stocks fall.
Oil price up – Bad for consumers, stocks fall.
Oil price down – Bad for producers, stocks fall.
$US down – Bad for consumers, stocks fall.
$US up – Bad for exporters, stocks fall.
Inflation up – Fed will tighten, stocks fall.
Inflation down – Weak economy, stocks fall.
Climate change – Higher inflation, fed will tighten, stocks fall.
World ends – Bad for insurers, stocks fall. …. “
http://www.wilmott.com/blogs/satyajitdas/index….
Now that is funny… and ever so true!