Wednesday Update...
(view on youtube, go here: Â http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sTBQtx4-9fA)
Red
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Is it really going to Crash?
I don't know, but it certainly has all the signs of a large sell off coming. Â Maybe not a crash, but a big move is on its' way I believe. Â I see this Thursday and Friday as big sell off days... maybe even going down to that 105.39 spy fake print (FP)? Â Who knows? Â Regardless of how far it goes down, tomorrow might be the best opportunity to get short in quite awhile.
This has all the similarities of the first week of August, and you can see what happened after the week ended... it was ugly. Â I think that's the kind of move we are going to get this Thursday and Friday. Â I just can't see an explosive move up yet. Â The daily is just too tired, and needs to sell off some first. Â Maybe it can rally back after a pullback, but for now I see a big move down coming.
Also, we keep getting new FP's, that show some big moves to the downside. Â These prints will be filled, and based on the amount of them I have now, I think it's coming very soon now. Â The writing is on the wall now, but the timing is still unknown.
However, the charts are pointing to the daily and 60 minute charts rolling over by this Friday. Â Also, the Fed's POMO money will be done by Thursday, along with the portfolio managers spending their last dollar too, as the quarter ends on Thursday. Â So, putting all these pieces together you have a very high chance of a big move down coming by Friday.
Anyway, I'll keep this post short and ended it here. Â Beside, I've said it all in the video. Â My thoughts are that tomorrow will be the best opportunity to get short before a big fall. Â Good luck to everyone...
Red
looks like a bollinger band pinch on the VIX. The breakout remains unknown but odds favor an upside breakout first, because of bullish sentiment being at extremes and second, because of the wedge the vix is making.
That said, look at how many unfilled gaps are below. The question is: Will the ones below get filled first or the ones above?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p39746751270&a=205689112
Thanks for the FP definition…I forgot to mention…if you look at the August Fed schedule, you’ll notice that the temp ops were reverse repos, to take money out of the market, creating a very smooth trip down. Aug 4 was the first since Dec 11, 2009.
One very interesting factoid is that the Fed explicitly states the list of reverse repo counterparties, but not the permanent ops list. Take into account the fact that they are on their way to hiring 400 traders in the NY Fed, tells me that they don’t want anyone to know exactly where the money is going.
I still think we’ll have another headfake, but when the money dries up Oct 7, we won’t even have another buyback schedule until Oct 13. But then again , the mysterious counterparties may want to leverage the last $10 billion to drive the market down. In either case, lot of volatility soon.
Big news:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-28/ireland-leads-surge-in-sovereign-default-swaps-on-bank-system-bailout-cost.html
Looks like it’s bad or worse. Fasten your seat belts.
they’ll (all risk assets, starting with precious metals, corn, eurusd, equities) all turn between wed-friday….and dollar index ST bottom….It’s expiration, month end, qtr end and the charts are lining up for this….
I don’t anticipate a crash, but a sharp move down for sure on pmetals, corn, even ES…
One last link – I’m on the West Coast, so it’s early yet –
http://www.businesscycle.com/resources
This is the Holy Grail of leading indicators. Scroll down to “Monthly Leading, Coincident and Lagging Indexes” and look at the green line. That is leading. Then look at the blue. That is coincident. Notice how the green line makes an abrupt 180 and dives. Notice how the blue has just topped. NOW, notice how the green line drops farther than it has since 1974.
Moral of the story…sit tight.
The dollar index is at 78.98 (reached my monthly and qtly targets). either she’s bottoming right now or at 78.45 which is a reversal point….So up the dollar now or real soon, and DOWN for pmetals, es, corn, eurusd, etc, etc
ES unlikely to go below 1100-1097 IT… ST 1119-1125… Price must stay below 1139-1139.60 for this to happen
S&P 500 Futures before opening bell
Well… no gap up! Bummer…
Looks like we’ll chop around awhile first, as the 60 minute chart is still pointing up. It could take most of the day to move up to overbought territory. That means the market shouldn’t fall hard, as we need this chart to peak out first… and roll over to start the sell off.
Look at the “Afterhours High” on the spy yesterday night…
http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/ExtendedTradingTrades.aspx?selected=SPY&mkttype=after&symbol=IWM&symbol=RUT&symbol=VXX&symbol=QQQQ&symbol=SPY&symbol=DIA
Flip those numbers after the decimal point, and what do you get?
This guy is often wrong but definitely not a good time to go long
http://www.mahendraprophecy.com/latest-news.php?id=473
SPY FP at 114.78 (approx)…
Gang,
This looks like it’s going to take us into tomorrow morning as the 60 minute chart is taking its’ sweet time moving up, and is currently still below the zero mark.
We need it to peak itself into the positive territory to setup the perfect shorting opportunity. This chart (by The Chart Pattern Trader) shows a good illustration of what he expects too happen, and I agree with him.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1926808&cmd=show%5Bs203387376%5D&disp=P
We need to clear out those overhead stops above 1150 before a nice move down can happen. That leaves the possible gap up for tomorrow morning, as it didn’t happen today as I was hoping.
This also lines up with what Mr. TopStep quoted about the portfolio managers running out of cash by 11:30-Noon on the last day of the quarter… which is tomorrow.
Plus, the Fed’s still have some money left to buy up the market, and it’s scheduled for tomorrow morning too. Seems like the perfect storm is coming tomorrow, so be ready to place your bets.
We are looking for a move slightly above the 1150 level to get short. Maybe 1155 or even 1160 on a quick candle move. But by the end of the day, I expect the market to sell off reversing the entire move up in the morning.
Just keep your eye on this chart. We want to see it go into positive territory and look peaked somewhere around noon tomorrow. We’ll also want the 30, 15, 10, and 5 minute charts to peak together too. I believe they will all line up insync together, which will give you the perfect spot to get short.
Good luck to us all…
Not good for the bears? Check out his dollar chart. Best regards,
http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2010/09/us-dollar-time-and-cycles.html
I tend to believe the catalyst will be the dollar or currency turmoil for this market correction. My gut feeling tells me we could have a strong reversal in the dollar, it is way oversold. Otherwise the bull will continue upward to SPX 1300. This is crucial time now.
S&P 500 Near Resistance level
His “major” turn date (I expect a minor one tomorrow) is November 16th… the day after the elections. Hmmm? Could that be the “major” crash date?
After tomorrow puts in a high, and the sell off afterward starts, the dollar should rally back up… maybe to the top trendline in his falling channel. This will give us a nice sell off in the market… maybe not a crash, but at least a nice correction.
Tomorrow is the key day here San. I expect a breakout, but I believe it will be completely reverse by the end of day.
Thanks Red
Hanging man candle on most indexes yesterday; highly reliable bearish reversal. Time to scale in short position now, never know we may gap down tomorrow morning ,trap all the bulls and make it difficult for bears to short at a low-risk setup.
Mr. TopStep…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b9ONaeiC_yg&feature=player_embedded
Very true Mike…
Ideally, I’d like to see the push up into the close as that would be a good indicator that the high would be put in today, as opposed to tomorrow.
No way to know for sure, but I just feel like they are going to do a quick head fake tomorrow morning and gap over the 1150 level, and then sell off.
However, that’s not a sure thing. So a wise move would be to start scaling into some shorts today, for tomorrow could just open down and continue down all day.
It’s better to have some positions short, then to miss the opportunity I believe. If it does go up quickly in the morning, then you’ll have an even better spot to get short at.
Listening to Mr. TopSteps’ video, I believe he thinks the money is just about run out now. All that’s left is what money the Fed will put into to market in the morning. Still, it could drop first, and rally back to a lower high, and then roll over into the afternoon.
Tough call, but again… scaling in short today is a wise move (IMHO of course)
Here’s a great article about what’s likely to bring down the stock market…
http://www.inthemoneystocks.com/n_rant_and_rave_blog_single.php?id=9874
I’m routing for the Tea Party (link on my blogroll, under “Social Networks” close to the bottom right of this page), and hope they do get elected.
If so, then the market will crash right after the election is over and surprise most traders that will be expecting a Democrat or Republican majority.
Who knows? Maybe the Tea Party can gain enough seats to take over? Wouldn’t that be great? I think so, as the crash resulting from them gaining control would be a healthy thing for the economy.
Flush out all the crooked banksters, and let the “Too Big To Fail”… FAIL! Who needs Goldman Sachs anyway? Have you ever been to a Goldman Sachs teller machine? I haven’t… How about the drive thru teller? Nope, not me. In fact, I’ve never even seen a Goldman Sachs bank. So why the hell are they called a bank, and why are they “Too Big To Fail”? Let them Fail, I say… along with JP Morgan, Citi, and too many other crooks to mention.
Ok, enough with the rant…
Red,
Your assessment is quite right. My question now is how can the market punish the maximum participants at this level? I keep looking at the dollar making this double bottom on 15 min. chart and wouldn’t surprise me for a bounce maybe coinciding with european markets open tomorrow right before US market starts trading. The other thing that bugs me is this POMO effect. Whenever all participants know about it and I think that is the case here, it is usually fully anticipated and therefore we won’t get any spike over 1150 tomorrow. Otherwise we should have already got it by now.
There is still that gap around 1153-54 that Mr. TopStep talks about. It’s from May 13th I believe. I doubt they will sell off without closing it. They are too close to “Not Close It”. It’s rare that they get so close, and leave it open. I still think it will push up and fill that gap tomorrow morning at the end of the day today.
SPY Hour chart looks weak
Yep… looks really weak to me too San. I hope everyone that was looking to get short took a partial position today. We don’t know what tomorrow will bring?
I don’t think it will be taken out firmly, but a quick stop sweep, and gap fill (for that 1153-1154 level) could happen on a 5 minute candle. Then a big reversal from there should happen.
If 1150 resistance is not taken out soon, we can see big correction.
Gang…
Here’s the big problem with the move down we just had… NO Volume! For the day, the SPY just has 137 million shares traded, and it’s now 3:30pm. For a real sell off to happen, I’d like to see over 200 million shares traded on the day.
I think that the move down was just some late day profit taking. It could be reversed tomorrow? I don’t know for sure, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see it run back up in the afterhours/premarket session, and open up flat or higher tomorrow morning.
I still think the big move down will start Thursday afternoon, and Friday. But if you already took a short position, I’d just ride out any move up tomorrow, as I don’t believe it will last.
Looks like the pattern being established is that people are playing the Fed purchase card, and today’s upward action at the very end (last 3 minutes) shows that people are catching on.
I bet it’s a BIG up day tomorrow, BUT, ending with a bigger selloff than today. Might be when we have a big dip. Then a huge upward headfake next week.
Hey… I like to get people excited! Crash sounds better then just a 50-100 point move down over the coming week. It’s just my writing style… LOL
😉
Red you and your crashes!!! hahahhahahhahahaha This is like the 12 one you called this year!! ROFL
Correction yes Crash no!
http://hotoptionbabe.com/blog/68-short-term-bear-here.html
Soooo many gaps to fill tomorrow. Everyone is waiting for Pomo to kick in. Big possibility to hurt the bulls tomorrow…
Well, we might have some potentially exciting developments tomorrow. POMO has been discussed ad nauseam the last few days and I don’t know how many sites both bullish and bearish that have posted POMO schedules. It appears POMO has been embedded in the trader’s zeitgeist and the next one is of course tomorrow. Bears afraid to short and bulls think there is a floor beneath, wouldn’t it be interesting if the trap door is released below instead. Tomorrow’s POMO overly anticipated by all.
I revisited the CNBC Prechter interview from a few days ago and noticed all of the same embedded dates in the stock updates as were in the Cramer Code video. (by the way I did an indepth analysis of the Cramer Code in the last comments section for those interested). But all of these previous comments about no crash happening is giving me buzzkill. Don’t particularly feel like revealing the other dates.
Illuminatus director David Fincher has a movie coming out on Friday, the Social Network, about the Facebook founders.. Interesting time for such a movie to come out near the peak of another echo tech bubble. I believe Fincher directed the Catalyst video for LP but from the previews I have seen, I haven’t noticed any of Fincher’s usual occultish and subliminal touches. Fincher is also stepping out of his usual genre.
Red,
Where did you see the FPs down to 105.39 ? I don’t see any on Thinkorswim on any time scale. Thanks !
Tomorrow, Sept 30 is 396 or 66×6 trading days from the March 2009 low ie on 03-06-09. 87tds from that March low is 2 days following 07-08-09 low ie the July pivot low (7-12). 309 tds from that low is tomorrow. 309 an encoded 9-30.
Hi Geccko23!
After your comment yesterday I was finally able to find the right Cramer’s episode and see the code you’ve been talking about.
The numbers on the screen surely do look creepy.
At the end of his talking about SalesForce there is a clue what those numbers on the screen were, all those 4:10:24 and 4:18:15 and 4:20:58. This is the after-hours tape of the SalesForce stock and the numbers are time points. Cramer even call them as such, saying “…and at four eighteen the price was this… and at four twenty – that…”
Although I know now the source of these creepy out-of-place numbers on the Cramer’s screen, their origin is not as important as their happenstance and confluence with other numbers. THIS is what’s always fun to experience…
I have half shorts, half longs, 70% went the wrong way…hopefully Thursday, 100% go the right way. (keep hope alive!)
Thanks Akka, I am glad you have shown an interest. The Prechter video has those numbers in spades, in particular two other numbers. I believe his appearance was highly ritualistic. He came on right after the Dow high(in the 10870 area ie 10-87) and CNBC/Maria B.??? was very cordial towards him and there wasn’t a ramp job following his appearance. It’s sort of like the Boy Who Cried Wolf and finally got it right but no one paid attention and he was ignored.
Oh I had another Linkin park inspired premonition this morning. I got into my car this morning and LPs new song Waiting for the End was playing (it’s more of a poignant song than its title suggest although the title probably has a darker deeper meaning). It was at 8:47 (87)again on station 987am and the title that appeared on the radio screen was just “Sun”. Then finally at the end of the song, there was just “End”. LPs album is 1000Suns but I don’t know where the singular “Sun” came from. Then I heard a promo later about something premiering tomorrow on a certain broadcast network (the same one as the EVENT—notice they have both Es in the logo pointing to the occultic V) My odometer was at 387xx. Last week when the Catalyst played my odometer was at 38565 (ie 111 plus 5-6) and the number below was 166 then 167 and it was 66 degrees. Very freaky and I am not BSing. And the other station I listen to that plays LP (the main one actually ) is 106.7 which I now see probably isn’t a coincidence to the 1067 number that I have been seeing frequently.
Keep on posting Geccko23, good stuff!
CRM had the same close yesterday as the SP: 114.7 down 2.27 (ie 911 and 29 or1929??). By the way, a certain poster talked about an Apple ritual last April near the high and I checked that there is an Apple ritual that the Wiccans engage in around the autumnal equinox (and Halloween also). And it has something to do with the setting sun.
Sorry, I just keep seeing these numbers. On bloomberg, Dow futures are at 10769 (1067). JNK closed at 39.(8)6. JNKs 50 day average at 39.01. 309 number of unread emails in inbox. No bs. Market better tank tomorrow or I am going to look foolish.
Anna caught the print about 2 weeks ago…
Refresh page for new video update…
Sorry but you are looking way too deep…….
S&P 500 Futures before opening bell
GDP revision up down up 2.7 1.6 1.7 Unemployment good, POMO day starting at 10:30.
Bears are gonna get it today. Gonna go to Yoga so I can grab my ankles and hold on better.
ROFLMAO! Just make sure the yoga class has some hot ladies in there too! At least then you’ll be able to think good thoughts while the bears get reamed.