The bulls did a great job yesterday of making new all time highs on most Indexes and ETF's, but the DOW is still lagging behind. So, we have to think we might see another attempt today by all the indexes just so the DOW can hit new all time highs too. The SPY tagged 250, the Nasdaq futures hit 6000, but the SPX hasn't hit 2500 yet... so again, there's reason to believe the bulls won't give up much ground today as they are too close to important levels they want hit. The old highes here on the ES Futures were 2488 so a retest of that seems acceptable for the bulls, but the bears are trapped today and the bulls will do everything they can to keep it that way. I originally thought we'd see a top yesterday and start the drop today but it's looking like it might be pushed out a few days now.
Chartwise there's no negative divergence on the 60 minute SPX chart or the daily. There's no negative divergence on the 6 hour or 60 minute ES chart yet either. So, when we look them we see that while they may look overbought there's still room to go higher. Now, that doesn't mean it has too happen today but it does suggests pullbacks will be limited. I hope I'm wrong on that and we drop hard today as I am short, but I'm calling like I see it and today looks more like a pause day too me. The MACD here on this 60 minute chart is drifting down toward the zero line while on the 6 hour chart it's up at +6 and +7, just now trying to rollover but not quite there yet.
It's histogram bars peaked at +2.5 and have fallen back to almost zero right now. So it's a few bars away from going negative and since each bar is 6 hours that pretty much covers all of today leaving tomorrow as the possible period where it might go negative. Keep in mind though that when this 60 minute MACD hits zero it could turn back up and make a higher low on it while putting in a higher high on the price level... meaning 2500 is still possible. So, the technical analysis today suggests a small pullback but nothing for the bears to get excited about. Hopefully I'm dead wrong and we tank 20-30 points, but I'm not holding my breath on that.
If I see a chance to exit my shorts I probably will. I have until October on them so I'm patient, but if we are going higher before rolling over I have to logically look for a better entry. I'll play that by ear I guess as the day goes on. If I exit I'll post it in the chatroom. There's still a "possible" FP on the SPY that could be the downside target for today. It's around the max pain level too, but the charts just don't support that big of a pullback today. Anyway, that's my thoughts for today... small pullback, turn back up on 60 minute MACD near zero to make a higher high in price but lower high on MACD. Then negative divergence is created while the 6 hour chart puts in another 1-2 bars and testes the zero level. Then possible Thursday or Friday we could see a decent move down. If they turn it back up later today and put in that new high then that should complete the negative divergence and start going do there afterwards (hopefully).
