Last Friday we saw a rally back up to put in a slightly higher high of 5708 on the ES, which I didn't see coming, but again... this market is still super bullish right now so "surprises" are more likely on the upside then downside. But I still think we are less likely to start another multi-hundred up then down.
The market looks tired to me and should pullback some this, which might continue for a few weeks before it trys another push higher in August. Remember, going sideways in a choppy range will reset short term overbought charts in "time" versus a sharp short term drop that resets it in "price". Meaning that this could still go a little higher into August before we see that 8-10% pullback happen.
My short term FET of 5618.39 from the 4963.50 low on 4/18/24 that connects to the 5/22/24 high of 5362.25 (I had a typo of 5368.25 previously, but corrected it) gave a 5608.68 FET (previously 5618), which was basically hit (fell shy a little) with the high of 5588 on 6/20/24.
That was a shorter term FET of course and produced a "pause" as the market went sideways for a couple weeks before going higher. So the FET was accurate for the most part, but since it was a shorter term one it didn't produce much of a pullback, but went sideways instead. If I did another projection from that sideways pullback I'd get an FET of 5824.39, which could be the next target for sometime in August?
However, that's an even smaller time frame FET and it really wasn't much of a pullback at all. So I'd rather look back for a bigger FET as it's likely going to be more powerful. When I look at the 4702 low from 1/5/24. to the 3/31/24 high of 5333.50 I get an FET of 5723.77, which would be a more powerful magnet then the shorter term one at 5824.39, so to me that would be the ideal target in August if we spend the next few weeks chopping around between 5500-5700 I think.
I'm not saying that we can't break that support zone and do the 8-10% drop here in July but usually it's a more bullish month with August being the more bearish one... especially the second half of the month.
Have a blessed day.
