So far so good. Last Friday failed to hold any early rally and went lower intot the close as I expected. I think we are going to get an early rally this week to possibly as high as 5630 roughly? But then I think it fails and we have another drop lower into the end of the week and possibly the end of this month. At this point I think we are headed to the rising green trendline over the next week or so, which is in the mid-5400's.
If this happens then I think we will be oversold enough to start a rally in August, but I don't know how high it's going? It could just be a B wave up with the drop to the rising green trendline being the A wave... or the correction could be over with and we start the last rally up into September/November, which is really what my lean is. Meaning that I think the coming low will be it and then we'll start another 5 wave rally up into the election, which should top prior to it, like in September probably.
If it's some blow off top then it could be up to the 6000+ area? I have added a new FET that uses the 5205.50 recent low and the current high of 5721.25, which projects 6039.98, and the FET from the 10/27/23 low of 4122.25 to the 4/1/24 high of 5333.50 projects a high of 6082.46, so there's two FET's pointing to the same zone. This tells me it's a magnet to hit the 6000 zone, so let's not rule it out as we go into the super important FOMC meeting on September 18th. We all know that this market has been front running a Trump victory in the November election so that could be a "sell the news" event. And if the Fed's cut rates history tells us that the market will drop afterwards.
As for the short term I lean toward a rally early this week that gets sold off with one more move lower before any solid rally can stick.
Have a blessed day.
