So far, so good. The market is acting as I expected. This relief rally will last 1-2 weeks from my estimate, and that's based on looking at the past. There will be another move down at some point but the "when" part is something I don't know. It could be as early as this Friday or as late as next Friday, and why I think it will make a lower low it could just make a higher one... but a retest will happen as the technicals say it will.
You can look at the 10/3/22 low, bounce and then lower low on 10/13/22 as one example, or the 10/4/23 to 10/27/23 move. The current technicals look like both of those periods, which produced a lower low. But it also looks similar to the 4/19/24 to 5/2/24 move, which produced a higher low.
Either way odds are very strong that another move down is coming in 1-2 weeks, and may lean of course is that old FP on the SPY will be the target, but that's not guaranteed of course. I still don't have any history of FP's on Yahoo to go by, so it's hard to know for sure if they were real with no long track record, which I have with Think or Swim. I'm just patiently waiting to catch the long and will go with the technicals and patterns. If the FP is hit that will just be a bonus but I won't count on it. Time wise it I'm looking at next Friday.
Have a blessed day.
