We hit my zone of 5775-5800 on the ES, so we could have topped? If we go any higher it shouldn't be very much, like a 10-20 points... "Maybe". Most likely though we pullback some, and while it might be choppy at first I expect the August 5th low to be tested (probably taken out) by the end of October.
The beginning will be full of drops and squeezes for the wave 1's and 2's (or A's and B's) as it sets up the C down later next month. Meaning next week might start the pullback but it could reverse back up again late in the week to setup early October as the best time for a big drop. As for today, I don't have much opinion as it's OPEX and could go dp anything.
Have a great weekend.
That was like the 1987 top with a little 1929 top thrown in on Thursday. Also similar to the late July 2007 high.
It is interesting that the 13 and 30 day simple moving averages have converged. The markets generally freefall when they converge. (usually following a bounceback rally to this convergence.) They were too far apart during the early September decline which had me sceptical about that decline along with the tightening Bollinger bands. (which was also occurring with the Vix. The Bollinger bands are in a much better setup now) My minor sells have erased but the technical setup of the market is very bearish. I expect a bigger decline on Monday.
We have to watch out because the stock market topped out on February 19th, also a Thursday, before plummeting into the Covid Crash of 2020. Some technical setups aren’t right for that but we have to watch out for 2+% declines for a warning. The Transports were down 3.5% yesterday.
The 10 day average was below the 20 day average for the SP 500 which was seen when the Nasdaq made its final high in late March 2000.