So I've been thinking about what would be the trickiest move by the market in the coming weeks and what that would consist of is a sharp pullback next week that just traps the bears before another big squeeze that goes up to my old FET's of 6082.46, 6189.54 or 6009.50 into the election. This would surprise everyone looking for an October crash and dump the market on Trump if he wins. Biden will take credit for the move up the last several years and Trump will be blamed for the coming recession. It's the perfect trick on the bears in the coming weeks and I really think it's got some pretty good odds of playing out like this. Let's look at the wave count now...
As you can see on the chart above the coming pullback would be a small wave 4 inside medium 5 up of large 5 up. The 5th wave can go to any level, which could reach my FET's around 6000+ into November. On previous wave counts I still had this labeled the same but I had the small 4 down as a short lived and small (in points) pullback, with the small 5 up to mid-5800 or so. Here's the old chart from 9/6 showing it.
The market followed that chart pretty good but I think we could see a bigger pullback for small wave 4, which would then setup the bulls for a more powerful squeeze to follow for small wave 5 up. I was sent this new FP below on 9/24, which points to 533.01 on the SPY, and that would be about 400 points down on the ES/SPX for this small wave 4 down. It would be the perfect trap on the bears before one more last rally up.
If this happens, and I do think the odds are high that it can play out like this, then I must respect this scenario and NOT get overly bearish when this FP is hit. If the short term charts are oversold enough at this point then I must be ready for that big squeeze to follow.
Have a blessed day.
