Yesterday I posted a chart update on Twitter with an updated short term wave count, which showed yesterdays drop as a Tiny C Wave inside a Small Wave 4. Below is that chart again...
Once that completes, we should see a strong rally up to above 5830 for Small Wave 5 up inside Medium Wave 3, which might be into Friday? Meaning we should start today to get the Tiny Wave 1 up and 2 down out of the wave, which sets up Tiny Wave 3 up to happen after some positively viewed Jobless Numbers on Thursday.
I'm just looking at the technicals first and adding in the "events" to get things going as I really don't care what the numbers are. It's about the charts, not the "events", but they are sparks to get things going and that's why I'm mentioning it. If this plays out then Friday's Non-Farm Payroll report should cause the top and drop, which since it's out before the open the high in the SPX cash "might" happen Thursday into the close?
Now keep in mind that the market might also rally up Friday and hold into the close to make everything look rosy for the weekend. Then something negative comes out and we drop for Medium Wave 4 early next week, and if that happens the market will need to hold above the prior low for Medium Wave 2, which was 5394 on the ES. As long as that happens then it can still go back up to 6000+ the rest of the month or right into the election.
It's going to be a wild October with many moves up and down I think, but at some point late in October, or possibly ealy November, the top will appear and then the market will fall off a cliff, which I think will hit my 483 FP on the SPY and that will put in the low for this year. Then a December rally and another larger drop in the first quarter of 2025 with 3800 SPX very possible.
As for today, again I'm looking for some chop down around the low with the Tiny Wave 1 up and 2 down getting finished to setup Thursday for a squeeze.
Have a blessed day.
