We got the bounce I was expecting yesterday and it never took out the 5900 level. I think it will continue to hold and that we are in the early part of the pullback to 5600-5700 on the ES, which could be over quickly (by Mon/Tues) or drag out slowly into the end of this month.
I lean toward it happening quickly as it's not very far down and there's not a lot of time left for the rally back up to 6100 (roughly)... that's "if" it's going to top out into the election? The election could drag out as the Deep State try to delay it until they can create enough votes (out of thin air) to steal the election. But I don't think they will be able to as I think God will stop them and put Trump in for another 4 years.
Call it divine intervention basically, but I just don't see satan winning this battle. Meaning we could chop around up at the top area for a week or so after the election. It's setting up the rest of November and part of December to drop hard to hit my FP on the SPY of 483, which could be right into Christmas like 2018 did? This is what I see as possible based on the time remaining and the technicals.
Have a blessed day.
I’m going to extend the top date for another week. I think there is room for another blowoff move or a final thrust. We’re probably running out of time for a final August 1987 move higher but XLF appears to be doing it. We might make a high of that important October 24 cycle date (or something else) or the 25th.
The $vix dropped today with the $SP decline. It’s now in a downtrend and might go to the 50 day average which is now strangely dropping. It did hit it’s trendpoint indicator today but that doesn’t work as well with the $vix.
That SP 30 day average battle with another indicator that I have mentioned recently has been whipsawing back and forth. The indicator did pass the 30 day average and then flattened but the 30 day has caught back to it. An SP rise to new highs will cause that indicator to rise again. But it is a sell signal when the 30 day does cross it but I still think a final thrust higher will invalidate that signal. It’s
probably indicating that the market situation is precarious and very tenuous.
We were getting close to a freefall signal but an indicator that was trending down finally reversed and went positive yesterday. The next decline will trigger this signal.
We probably see one final thrust higher. Then a decline and a final softer rally that makes a slightly higher high. We needed a weekly topping bar for the indices this week. We probably get it next week. It should be a big candled week this week.