Today after the close Nvidia will release their earnings and they are a major player in both the Nasdaq and the S&P500, so I do expect the market to move strongly in the direction it moves. Which why is the question? I think it is up and up big time as we reached (and pierced) the 483.00 FP on the SPY yesterday and we got oversold on the short term, so a move up looks most likely.
If I'm right it will kick off the last move up to hit the FP on NVDA of 160.22, and that is roughly equal to my FET of 6435 on the ES. But the ratio between them does change so I really can't focus too much on the 6435 target and will just be looking for the FP on NVDA to get hit and pierced. Once hit the top should be in I think and that could be into the end of this month or into the first week of December.
I don't know the time frame but it's really not that far off when you think about it. We are just about a 100 points below the all time high, and that could be done in one day the way the market moves these days. Then another 25-75 point days follow into the end of November and we are up there at least 6300, if not more? Next week will be a low volume week, so odds will favor the bulls and a float up should be easy for them. As for today I'd lean toward up in the first half of the day and down into the last half. I posted a chart on Twitter yesterday, which is below.
https://x.com/reddragonleo/status/1858964019379319258
It's just a guess on the wave counts, which isn't that important. Just expect to see a wave 3 up of some degree start soon, like after the earnings on NVDA most likely. I don't normally use "events" for forecasts, but instead just use the technicals, some Elliottwave, and the Fake Prints. It's just that the earnings on Nivdia happen to line up with the technicals, so odds are it will be the "event" to cause a big squeeze start.
Have a blessed day.
