This most important thing this week is the FOMC on Wednesday, so between now and then we might continue to be rangebound between the all time high and the recent pullback low, which might extend down to 6000 or so. Overall though a hundred point range is a tight one and should lead to a breakout of the zone soon.
I think we'll see one more higher high but I'm not looking for 6300+ at this point. Maybe it's just a few points higher, or even up to 6200, but I don't see much more. It's reminding me a lot of the 2020 high, at least from a pattern point of view. Now I doubt if it follows that move again but it might rhyme with it in some manor.
Back then the first drop was just under 16% and if it followed exactly from the current all time highs that would be equal to 5190 on the ES and 5133 on the SPX. Interestingly my FP on the SPY of 533.01 would put them both around 5400, which would not be a 16% drop but it would be similar for sure. The market never repeats some prior move exactly but it does repeat prior patterns, and that's the pattern I currently see the market the closest too.
Again though, it's all just speculation until we seem a real break to the downside start. It could be right after the FOMC, especially if we get a pop higher on that day which fades small on Thursday and Friday with the high being put in on Wednesday. Then the week after we see a surprise drop happen that shocks everyone. Currently this is just a dream but the market loves to surprise everyone, so don't be shocked if we see a big drop happen before the end of this year.
NOTE:
We are rolling into the March 2025 contract now on the ES, which the December 2024 contract is about 5-6 higher then the SPX cash. The March 2025 ES contract is now 70 points higher then the December 2024, which is about 75 points higher then the SPX cash. This makes it hard to keep track of the levels but on this post I'm referring to the December prices.
So with a 75 point spread and gap up on the March contract this will open the door for 6200+ on it, but keep in mind that the SPX will be 75 points lower.
Have a blessed day.
