Well, the ES is rolling now from the March contract to the June one, and on my charts it already happened yesterday, so there's a 50+ point spread between it and the SPX cash now. This makes it confusing sometimes as I chart the ES but trade the SPX. I'm still looking for a pullback today, but I don't think we will see very much. Probably 30-40 points, but certainly not a move back down to the FP on the SPY of 551.49 as discussed yesterday.
The market is of course waiting on the FOMC tomorrow, so a slight pullback today is normal. We could see some very tricky moves after the 2pm meeting tomorrow, where we might drop at first to shake out the longs and then squeeze back up afterwards to reach the 5800 zone (SPX), which will be 5850+ on the new ES contract.
I expect it to be tricky as after the rally ends, which could carry into Thursday (depends on how much of a squeeze we get) the next move down into next week should hit that FP on the SPY at minimum, if not take out the low. I'm just in a "wait and see" mode right now as I can't take any position at this current spot. I need it higher to short or lower to go long.
Have a blessed day.
