Today is the big day, and yesterday did "mostly" what I expected. We did get the pullback, which does look like an ABC, and the C down had 5 waves inside it. But it went a little deeper then I would have like to see, and there was no move back up into the close, so I have to remain open for another possibility, which is that the wave 4 up bounce ended at the recent high and it will not unfold in an ABC up, where the C wave would make a high up around 5800 or so (5850 new ES contract).
Instead the the next move up will make a lower high and would be the wave 2 bounce inside the wave 5 down. The move down yesterday would be the wave 1 in the wave 5 down. Today might be very tricky, so what I'll be looking for is to see what happen prior to 2pm EST, as "if" we get a strong move up, and then a pullback, I'll be open again to the C wave up inside wave 4 as covered yesterday. (Below is yesterdays more bullish wave count again)...
But if we kinda of chop around waiting on the Fed, I'll then look for the wave 4 as being finished yesterday and a lower high for a wave 2 up inside a 5 down as being the wave count. I'll then look for a short as the move down afterwards would be a nasty wave 3 inside a 5, and that will be a strong one. The "trick" for SkyNet will be to suck all the bulls into thinking it's a breakout, so the wave 2 up (if this is the correct wave count) might retrace all the way back to within a point or so of the Monday high, and it might go right into the close. It will be tricky, that's for sure. But if we don't see a clean breakout move I'm a bear again and will look to short the retrace lower high.
Have a blessed day.
