Well, no bounce yesterday so it seems the bullish period ended early. I really thought it would last into today but it clearly ended on Wednesday. From here forward we should continue down (with bounces at some point of course) into the 23rd/24th where some kind of low is likely but the final low should be around May 2nd/3rd. If you missed the short (I did) there's not much to do at this point.
Have a great weekend.
Watch out for a quick little flash crash to your 48 FP. I think the SP hit its 100 week average. I’ll check all of that after the close. The market looks like it will be up on Monday. It’s completely below its lower BB.
They didn’t get it to 4800 or get circuit breakers but it got to around what my calculation for 18% drop off the high generally was like the first leg down in 1929. They took their sweet time this time.Then it was 5 weeks down. This time it was 5 unobstructed red weekly candles down but 44 days. 44 days to 4-4.
I think the market will be up on Monday. We did not get any bottoming tail at all so we have to rule the April 2000 analog out. Trump could make some resolution statement over the weekend that would get the market skyrocketing. The other alternative is the March 2020 bounce off the 100 week average but that bottomed with a major bottoming tail candle below the lower Bollinger Band. And the market just tested the 13 day average a couple of days ago. (the ultimate destination for the bounce in 2020)
I don’t know the price level but that FP could certainly be hit. The 23rd/24th is where one low should happen and then around May 2nd/3rd should be the finally low (could be a higher low?) before the market starts the mega rally up all summer to at least the 655.66 FP on the SPY.