Up, down, up, down, but going nowhere... that's the market of the last week or so. A big move is coming, but I don't know if it's an up move or down move? With the FOMC at 2pm EST the market should remain in a zone until after the meeting.
My thoughts are the following...
Scenario ONE: The market rips higher after the FOMC and closes the day near the high with some kind of 100+ point move. Basically it just takes out the 6111 prior high (December contract) by at least 20 points it's a stop run basically. Ideally we hit 6166 for the ritual number play, which today is also a ritual number day. But that's not required.
Scenario TWO: The market flushes down into the close after the meeting (how much I don't know... 100 points?) and that puts in the bottom for any correction we've been in since the 12/6 high if 6111 (December ES contract). Then we rally back up for another week or so to reach 6150+ (probably 6200+) as if we do flush lower the final high should be pushed out for another few weeks... meaning we could see the Santa Rally after all.
I want to see Scenario ONE so I can short the pig but I don't usually get what I want. So I have to be on the lookout for Scenario TWO as a flush-out drop lower first as a fake out move and then a final rally up afterwards in the coming few weeks. Bottom line here is that whichever way the market goes first, after the FOMC and into the close, the opposite direction is the next likely true trend move.
Have a blessed day.
