I think we topped yesterday for the final 5th wave's to end large wave 1 up. I say that because the gap filled on the VIX from 4/2-4/3, so there's not much left on the upside that I can see. We hit the 61.8% retrace level too, so again, the market is running on fumes here. But, I don't think we start down hard today.
It's Friday so we'll probably hold up with light volume and not go down much, or up much. I still think that next week we get the wave A down and B up, leaving the wave C down into the following week to complete large wave 2 down. Most likely we bottom the week of OPEX, and I'd lean toward it bottoming mid-week so that it can reverse back up hard into the end of the week to make all the put holders expire worthless.
Plus, they will want a nice bottoming tail candle put in on that weekly chart to support the big squeeze afterwards. This suggests that the FOMC next Wednesday will disappoint and fail to give the market what it wants (a rate cut). That's just speculation on my part but if we get an A down and B up into that FOMC I have to think we'll take afterwards in the C wave. It will fool the most people I think as everyone seems to think the Fed will cut soon. Maybe they don't? I don't know what the reason will be but something will happen to cause the drop and we won't worry about the reason as that's not important.
Have a great weekend.
