This week is the last week where we could possibly see a blow off top, I really don't think it's going to happen. Instead, I think we get a lower high and a pullback to the 533.01 FP on the SPY into mid-late December. Then we rally hard again into late January to hit my FET of 6441 and the FP on NVDA of 160.22, which I've covered on last Fridays' post in great detail. Would I like to see a rally to 6441 this week? Heck yeah! But the odds of that happening are super low in my opinion. The technicals are just too weak looking. The weekly chart looks ready to (finally) rollover, which you can see on the SPX below...

Besides the obvious triple (or quadruple) negative divergences on the RSI of that weekly chart notice all the different Fibonacci Extension Targets that have been hit. There are short, medium and longer term one's, just like there are small, medium and large waves. The biggest FET is the one connecting the 2020 low to the 2022 high, which points to 6441.96, and is my final high for this multi-year bull market before a really nasty correction happens.

All of the short and medium term FET's have been hit except the big one at 6441.96, so I just don't still this bull market ending until that one is reached. I do NOT see December as a bullish month where we will go up and hit it, as the technicals just don't support it. Now let's look at the daily chart of the SPX...

As you can see the RSI i pointing up on the daily chart but it clearly getting tired as it has made several tops on the RSI that never reached overbought before rolling over. We will likely see the same thing happen this week as while there should be light volume due to the Thanksgiving Holiday there's just no really big buying up here. I think we'll just chop and grind all week and top out by either Wednesday or the half day on Friday. By then the RSI will be exhausted and will likely rollover the first week of December.

Don't forgot about the common pattern that happens every month around the end of it and the start of the next month... which is "turns happen a lot". Some are small and some are big but never the less it's a common pattern every month and this month will be no different. Add in overbought weekly charts and you have a setup for a nice move down coming.

In this post I've covered the bigger picture here as we go into December and into the first quarter of 2025. As for the short term I don't have much to say. I just think we'll have light volume all week and that favors the bulls. Any pullbacks shouldn't be much and will likely be reversed back up into the half day on Friday. Next week is where the bears get to have some fun. Below is the "best guess" wave count (ES)...

Lastly let me point out some days that "events" are at, which could cause "turns" in the market.  They are...

Next Non-Farm Payroll (NFP Dates): December 06, 2024...

Consumer Price Index Dec. 10, 2025 08:30 AM

... and the FOMC Meeting Two-day meeting, December 17-December 18

I'd have to guess that the FOMC date will be a low, maybe not "the low" but a low never the less.  Possibly it bottoms there for some kind of wave 3, bounces for a few days, and does the wave 5 into Christmas where I suspect the "important" low will be at before a big rally starts for Medium Wave 5 into late January.

That Christmas area low could be a slightly lower low or slightly higher low then the FOMC low... I don't know?  If we hit and pierce the 533.01 FP on the first low then I'd look for the second low to be a higher one.  Then we'd have a wave 1 up (Small Wave 1 probably) from the first low, and a wave 2 down into Christmas for a slightly higher low.  I lean toward this being the case as it will be the opposite of what happened in 2018... and you know how the market loves to fool the most traders.

The "clue" to tell us what is the plan will be whether the FP is hit on the first drop or not... and if there is a clean ABC drop with 5 waves inside the C wave down.  This all assumes we don't make a higher high this week on all the indexes.

If we just make one on the ES, but not the NQ, or the YM, and maybe not even the cash indexes on the SPX, NDX and DOW... then I'll just say that Small Wave B up had an overshoot and the wave count is still valid.  But if too many indexes make a higher high then I'll have to adjust the count and move the top for Medium Wave 3 to the new high.  We'll cross that road "if" it happens.

For now the current wave count on this post is what I think is most likely, which is my Alternative Wave count that I covered on Friday.  If a new all time high is reached (like early in the week, not on Friday) then we'll be back on the Main Wave count where my FET of 6441 is coming faster then I thought possible.

As of the close last Friday that blow off squeeze doesn't look possible as there's not even a full week left for it to happen into the turn window, which is why I put out the alternative wave count as then we'd pullback to the 533.01 FP first and then rally to the FET of 6435 into late January.  But if we get a big squeeze this week, meaning over 6100, 6200+, then I'd say it's over the bulls and the first drop will be the 533.01 FP and then a strong rally into January for a lower high should follow.

My point here is that I can't get a 100% focused on the FET hitting as it's the last one, the really big one, which ends the bull market... so it could fall short of hitting.  They have a perfect track record of hitting the medium and short term FET's but the large one, which again is calculated from the 2020 low to the 2022 high, will be the last one, and it might not reach it.

Looking back at a prior large FET, which connected the 2009 low of 666.79 (SPX) to the 2020 high of 3393.52, it projected a target high of 5078.64 to end the next multi-year bull market following the 2020 bottom.  Well, all the medium and short term FET's from the 2020 low to the 2022 high played out just fine, but the final high in 2022 was 4818.62, which was short of the FET of 5078.64 by 5.1127%, and if you use that same percentage on the current FET of 6441.96 (SPX) you get 6112.14 as the final high.  On the ES that would be about 31 points higher (roughly).

Again, there are many things to pay attention to this week as in the end it will be a "gut feel" using the technicals, the turn dates, the patterns, the fake prints, the fibonacci extension targets, and even some astrology.  I just say that if we get a really big move up this week of several hundred point I have to start thinking it's topping now and any rally back up in January will be for a lower high.  We shall see...

Have a blessed day.

Got a nice rally yesterday after a lot of wild swings in both directions, but in the end we did go up. With just a week left into the end of November I really doubt if we reach the top by then, but who knows for sure as anything is possible.  I just think that once we reach the double top zone we might spend some time there consolidating, which will eat up "time", so this could extend into early December if it's going to reach the FP on NVDA then and put in the final top?

If so, it's at that point we should be topped in every market, but guessing the price on those markets are just that... a guess. On the SPX we might have already topped? I'm not positive but we've hit a very important rising trendline as posted in the chart below...

On it you can see the rising white trendline that starts at the high on 9/6/1929 and connects to the 3/29/2000 high, so it's a SUPER IMPORTANT TRENDLINE.  If we go up and make another higher high into the end of next week, and hit that trendline again, it will be around 6050-6075 (roughly), which it could do for sure.

NVDA can still do its' blow off top to hit the FP on it of 160.22, but the ratio between it and the ES/SPX changes all the time as it's just one stock compared to 500 in the ES/SPX... so we could just barely go higher on it but be super strong on NVDA. Really hard too figure out, but the end of next week will have the best chance I think due to the expected light volume for the holiday.

Now my alternative thoughts...

If we go up next week and make a lower high, or even a "slightly higher high" on some, but not all indexes, meaning NO Blow Off TOP, then I'll have to think something else is in play.  I would then think that it's a B wave up of some degree from the recent low last week, with the 6053.25 high on November 11th being the top of Medium Wave 3 where Small Wave A  drop started.

What is means is that the rally up to the 6053 top was the completed Tiny Wave 5 up, which completed Small Wave 5 inside Medium Wave 3. My wave count chart from November 12th has that Tiny Wave 5 up subdividing into 5 Extra Tiny Waves, which would probably top at the FET of 6453, but "what if" that Extra Tiny Wave 5 is just a One Wave move, not Five Waves?

Below is that old chart again...

If it turns out that is the case then we will have completed Medium Wave 3 up and we are now in Medium Wave 4 down, which the move to the 11/19 low would be Small Wave A down and we are inside Small Wave B up now, which should make a lower high into next week to complete it.

Then a Small Wave C down will follow in December that should hit the 533.01 FP on the SPY, and it will unfold in a 5 wave move, which will confuse the most traders. This actually has good odds of playing out as I can see a clean 5 wave move down from the 6053 high to the 5855 low, which if it was Extra Tiny Wave 2 down it should have unfolded in a 3 wave ABC move, not a 5 wave move.

Here's a chart below showing all the smallest waves...

This also means December won't have the big drop I was thinking as possible (the 483 FP on the SPY) as the market will not have put in the final high.  It will extend out into mid-late January to do the blow off top and hit the FP on NVDA, as it will have topped yesterday with its' new all tine high and it will have a lower high as well into next week.  Then it will drop with the market in Small Wave C inside Medium Wave 4.  The 160.22 FP won't be hit until late January just like the rest of the market.

I have to think this is the most likely scenario as I just don't think there's enough time left to get the blow off move I'm looking for, and the main wave count doesn't support it either.  Plus we have that idiot Jim Cramer coming out now calling to "Buy, Buy, Buy", and we all know that when he says to buy something it's topped and a pullback is coming.  He'll say "Sell, Sell, Sell" when the SPY reaches 533.01... LOL.

I don't follow him but I saw a post on twitter about it and that was just another reason for me to step back and re-look at the wave count, which I have and I now lean toward Medium Wave 4 being in play now and Medium Wave 5 up happening into late January.

Zoomed In Look...

This is the same "Alternative Wave Count", but I've zoomed in to get a possible wave count going into next week.  As you can see it "could" unfold in an ABC move with the C wave subdividing many times to frustrate bulls and bears both.

That's all I can think of for now.

Have a great weekend.

We didn't get any big move up after the NVDA earnings yesterday like I had hoped for, which just tells me the market needs more time to carve out a bottom and will rally whenever it is ready I guess. It setting up though for a big move as it keeps making higher lows and has done a wave 1 up, wave 2 down, another wave wave 1 and another wave 2 down... and that's how big wave 3's up form.

To me nothing has changed on the technical side and the wave counts. Only the "event" was a miss, but that's always just a best guess anyway as the market moves on cycles, technicals and waves, and any "event" can be used to get a big move going... up or down. Bottom line here is I'm still bullish on the short term as I firmly believe we have one more blow off top coming. I just don't know the "when" part?

Maybe it needs more time and will drag out into the first week of December? Or maybe it gets going today and some how continues with the top at the end of this month? Only time will tell...

Have a blessed day.

Today after the close Nvidia will release their earnings and they are a major player in both the Nasdaq and the S&P500, so I do expect the market to move strongly in the direction it moves. Which why is the question? I think it is up and up big time as we reached (and pierced) the 483.00 FP on the SPY yesterday and we got oversold on the short term, so a move up looks most likely.

If I'm right it will kick off the last move up to hit the FP on NVDA of 160.22, and that is roughly equal to my FET of 6435 on the ES. But the ratio between them does change so I really can't focus too much on the 6435 target and will just be looking for the FP on NVDA to get hit and pierced. Once hit the top should be in I think and that could be into the end of this month or into the first week of December.

I don't know the time frame but it's really not that far off when you think about it. We are just about a 100 points below the all time high, and that could be done in one day the way the market moves these days. Then another 25-75 point days follow into the end of November and we are up there at least 6300, if not more? Next week will be a low volume week, so odds will favor the bulls and a float up should be easy for them. As for today I'd lean toward up in the first half of the day and down into the last half. I posted a chart on Twitter yesterday, which is below.

https://x.com/reddragonleo/status/1858964019379319258

It's just a guess on the wave counts, which isn't that important. Just expect to see a wave 3 up of some degree start soon, like after the earnings on NVDA most likely. I don't normally use "events" for forecasts, but instead just use the technicals, some Elliottwave, and the Fake Prints. It's just that the earnings on Nivdia happen to line up with the technicals, so odds are it will be the "event" to cause a big squeeze start.

Have a blessed day.

Yesterday did a lot of nothing as the market chopped around a little green and a little red throughout the day to close a little green. I don't know if the low is in or not but if it's not it's super close now. We hit 483.86 on Friday and the FP was at 483.00, which might be "close enough"... hard too say for certain.

My history of them though has them hitting a piercing by a small amount before they are officially fulfilled. The only real question is... was it a real fake print or just a late fill that just happens to be close to where we've pulled back to? Sometimes those intraday FP's are just late fills from the prior open or closing price.

The really good FP's are the one's that are way away from the current price level that the market is trading at when they come out. That's why I'm very confident that the 533.01 FP is a real one as the market was way away from that level when it came out (it was at 571.22). So, whether we go down one more time to hit and pierce it or it's finished we should start the next big rally up after the earnings come out this Wednesday for NVDA.

The point here is that the market is carving out a bottom and super close to starting the last rally up, which could top out by the end of next week, or it takes a little longer and drags out into the first week of December. The target is still the same, which is 160.22 on NVDA, which I think will be close to my FET of 6435 as well. As for the short term, I don't have any lean... chop is all I see today.

Have a blessed day.

The pullback should be just about over with now as it gets very close to the fake print on the SPY of 483, which I wasn't sure or not if it was real, but now I know it was. Once Small Wave 4 ends we'll see Small Wave 5 up take the market up to my Fibonacci Extension Target (FET) of 6435 (hopefully), which should be the final top before a really big drop happens.

My focus though won't be on that FET but the FP on NVDA of 160.22, as when that level is hit the ES should top out too, and ironically it should be around the FET as well. The "when" part is unknown of course but since we have earnings out this Wednesday for NVDA we have the perfect setup for that report to be used to get a big squeeze going for the final move up. Next week we have the market closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving and open a half day on Friday, so volume should dry up during that period and of course light volume always favors the bulls.

That's where would "could" see the market top out at as we go into December, which is normally a bullish month. But if this scenario plays out like this we could see December look a lot like 2018 did. Of course we could take a little longer and take until the end of the first week of December to top out but the rally should start after earnings on NVDA this week as it's a huge part of the weight of the market and can lift it all quite easily. As for the short term I'm looking for some chop around this current low area to setup the squeeze later this week.

Have a blessed day.

I posted on Twitter an update yesterday as it appears the market is indeed unfolding in an ABC down and we were in the C part yesterday. Once it finishes, which it might do so at anytime, or go deeper to that "possible" FP on the SPY of 583 (about 5880 ES?) as that's also around the 50% retracement level, we should be fully oversold and will complete Small Wave 4 down.

Some think the high is already in now and that we'll only go back up for a lower high next week, which is certainly possible, but I think we go higher. I still think the FP on NVDA of 160.22 is the final target high to get hit before this market finally tops and sells off hard. Below is that Twitter post...

https://x.com/reddragonleo/status/1857123456245985294

Now I can certainly be wrong as predicting highs (or lows) is super hard, but over the many years of track fake prints I do know they will be hit. What I never know is the "when" part. I have to guess at that using technicals, Elliottwave, Seasonality, etc... and I just can't see a really big drop (like down to the 533 FP on the SPY) happening before that upside FP on Nivida is hit.

With short term charts getting close to oversold on some time frames and completely oversold on others the technicals tell me there's one more rally left over the next 2 weeks, so if the bulls don't blow it here they can still hit the FP I think.  If I'm wrong and the top is already in then the upside target won't be reached until late January as we are going to have a nice pullback in December.

As for today, I don't have too much to add. We could have already bottomed or we go a little lower to the 38.2% level at 5927.57 or as deep as 5888.75, which is the 50% level and around where that possible intraday FP is on the SPY of 583.

Have a great weekend.

The CPI was a dud yesterday as the market continues to stay in a tight range, but above support from a rising white trendline. It's building out a bull flag and at some point soon we should see a breakout (or breakdown?), which could happen today or tomorrow, but it's close now.

It's setting up next week for the squeeze to happen, which could be the plan as this Friday is the monthly OPEX and sometimes the market likes to chop around to make as many puts and calls expire worthless as possible. It doesn't have to last all of Friday as sometimes the market makers get max pain over with by Thursday or Friday morning of any OPEX month, so the chop does not have to continue right into the close of the week.

We could see the breakout start Friday and the biggest move happen next week. I still think we will see the FET hit before this market tops out. I don't know the "when" part but it could be right into the end of this month. Time is running out for this bull run though as the daily chart doesn't have much left before it gets overbought.

I do think that it's coming over the next 2 weeks, but that's just a best guess. It seems like a lot to rally 400 points in 2 weeks but we seen 300 points up a week ago, so it's very possible. Don't forget the the last week of the month will have super light volume as the market will be closed on Thursday the 28th for Thanksgiving and open only half the day on Friday the 29th.

They can easily float the market up during that whole week as there won't be anyone around to push it down. The high will be put in on the market when NVDA hits the FP of 160.22, which could be hit in the next 2 weeks if they really want to squeeze the market higher. They took it from 132.11 to 149.77 from 11/1 to 11/12, so they can do it again easily if they want to. And with them coming out with earnings next Wednesday, November the 20th I have to think they will make sure it's good so they can get it higher.

Have a blessed day.

We got a pullback yesterday, which was very close to hitting the 23.6% retracement level, and then we reversed back up hard into the close to erase it all. Is that the low? We'll see today after the CPI most likely the answer to that question. If it's viewed good the market will squeeze hard and probably challenge, if not take out the current high.

If viewed poorly then we pullback again for another retest of yesterdays low with decent odds of a slightly lower low being put in. That would end up being an ABC pullback for some degree of a wave 2 down, which I think would be an Extra Tiny Wave 2 inside Tiny Wave 5 up to complete Small Wave 5, inside Medium Wave 5, inside Large Wave 3 up. Just a "best guess" as always on the wave count. Below is what I'm talking about...

As you can see on that chart the market could pullback again and still be in a strong bullish uptrend, or just go up with the low being in from Tuesday. The CPI is just another "event" that can cause it to move strongly either way. I don't know which way it's going but I have to think that the most damage would be to go up more and not give the trapped bears any more of a pullback to exit at or get long. Going down to the "possible" FP of 583 on the SPY is likely just wishful thinking by me and anyone that is bearish.

It could happen but that's about a 50% pullback of the Extra Tiny Wave 1 up, and that just seem too much in my opinion... and least if you want to see the blow off happen into the end of this month. I don't know if it can make it that high or not (I mean my FET of 6435) with such a small amount of time left, but crazier things have happened.

Besides the CPI today we have the Jobless Claims on Thursday and PPI, as well as Powell speaking at 3pm EST (to lie of course about the economy), and then Friday we have Retail Sales, so that's a ton of "events" that can be used to juice the market higher.  If they do then next week can just go sideways to hold the gains from this week, which leaves the last week of the month to float higher

Have a blessed day.

Yesterday we appear to have put in a short term high as a much overdue pullback should be starting now. I still don't know what level it's going to bottom at but the price points I'm looking for are at the 23.6% level of 5975.61, 38.2% at 5927.57 and at most, the 50% mark of 5888.75, which is close to the "possible" FP on the SPY of 483. I don't really think it will go that deep but with the CPI number out Wednesday before the open we could see some fast move down there I guess?

If it reaches it I think it's a strong buy for the last rally up into the end of this month or the first week of December. Again, I'm not leaning toward that deep of a move as that seems too far. My thoughts are that we get somewhere between 23.6% and 38.2&... like 5950 maybe? Something like that... a move below 5975 but not below 5900.

My focus will be on the RSI on the 2hr and 6hr chart and not so much about the points. I'm also going to be focused on whether or not we get a decent move down today, in front of the CPI, which then might put in a bottom and cause a move back up from the CPI. Or, if we don't pullback very much I'll have to think the CPI will cause a deeper pullback, but it should be fast and short lived.

It's more of a "feel" as I watch the RSI, which I think the 2hr chart will have it get oversold, but probably not on the 6hr chart. Whichever way it plays out the next move up should be a wave 3 of some degree with the pullback being a wave 2 and the wave 1 up being the rally after the election.

I will also add that "if" there is a really fast drop, and fast rally back up, it's likely a bull trap as too fast of a move in both directions. It would suggest an ABC move is in play and another drop to shake out those bulls (a C wave) will probably happen. Then we do the face ripper rally to the FET into the end of this month.

Have a blessed day.

This week should be a choppy one as a small pullback is likely before we go up again even higher. I'm not expecting a lot, and while it's possible that we pullback to the 583 FP on the SPY I also have to be open to the that being just a "late fill" and NOT a real fake print... meaning we won't hit it.

If I just look at support areas and Fibonacci levels I see two targets that are quite a bit higher then the 583 SPY level (which is about 5870-80 ES). Those prices are 5965.87, which is the 23.6% level, and 5919.69, the 38.2% level. If we make it to 50% we'd be at 5882.37, and that's roughly equal to the (possible) FP on the SPY of 583... which again, might just be a "late fill" and therefore not something I should NOT trust or expect to get hit.

My gut tells me that it's not real and just a late fill.  It makes me think we will only pullback to the 23.6% or 38.2% level, and then start back up again. Dip early in the week and back up late in the week seems the most likely path for the market in my opinion, but of course that's just a guess.

The end of this month the volume will really dry up as we go into Thanksgiving, and there's not any more "events" in the next couple of weeks to scare the market as the election is now passed by and the FOMC meeting too. We have the CPI number this coming Wednesday the 13th, which is about all I can see to move the market, but if we pullback in front it I'd say we'll continue the rally up afterwards.

My point is that I don't see anything to stop the bulls from continuing higher into the end of this month or early December. Once the pullback is over we'll likely continue higher with even fewer pullbacks for long entrys.

We could see the FET at 6435 into early December, or maybe even right into the end of November? I don't know the time it's going to hit but everything I see does suggest there's not going to be anything serious on the downside until this blow off top is hit.

Have a blessed day.

This market clearly has legs and wants to skip any good pullback (like my dream of going down to the 533 FP) and is likely going to just continue higher until it hits the final high. Yes, there will be some pullback but it might just be 100-200 points and very fast, and short lived too.

I think the final high will be my FET at 6435.91 as it was created from the 2020 low up to the 2022 high and since this is a massive blow off top that one seems to be most likely.  This should be the place where Nivda will hit its' upside FP of 160.22 I'd guess. Below is a weekly chart of the ES showing the Fibonacci Extension Target and that rising trendline.

Shorter term FET's seem to be places where shorter pullbacks happen, and since we hit my FET of 6009.50 yesterday the 100-200 point pullback can happen at any time now... possibly next Monday or Tuesday? It will suck in all the bears thinking the final high is in but I don't think it is. This breakout is too strong and is likely going to rally up all of November to hit the bigger term FET at 6435.81 (6441.96 SPX) as shown on the weekly chart. The short term drop should hit the falling white trendline of support (in the middle) on this 6hr chart below.

It's around 5865 roughly, depending on "when" you hit it? I think early next week, like Monday is most likely. Just release some bad news over the weekend to gap it down and it will get everyone super bearish, plus it will shake out the bulls. But it should hold and from there we should go back up the rest of November to kill every bear on the planet.

By the time we top in early December everyone will be super long and afraid to short. Then out of nowhere some event will trigger the drop, which I don't know what it will be but it should fall off a cliff and the downside target on the SPY of 483 from the 2 fake prints I have will be hit before the end of the year.

Crazy, I know... but I think the market loves to trick the most traders and that kind of move would do it. January will still be a huge rally month but it should only be for a lower high, like 61.8% retrace or something. Below is the daily chart...

On it you can see the RSI still has room to go higher before it gets fully overbought, and I think it will be by the end of November. The MACD will hook back up and make another lower high as the market tops out, which will be a triple negative divergence. This market is preparing for a flash crash in December but the "event" to blame it on is unknown. I think the low will be the two FP's of 483 on the SPY, and the 533 FP will probably be the first low... like the A wave down.  Then a B up and the C down will hit the 483 FP to end it.

My main reasoning for thinking this is based on the past and what happened in similar cases. On my weekly chart of the SPX (below) I noticed that the bigger FET that started at the 2011 low of 1074.77, up to the 2020 high of 3393.52, put out an FET of 4826.51, and we topped at 4818.62 in 2022, so that was a perfect hit. From there we dropped to a low of 3491.58 in 2022, which is super close to the 3393.52 high in 2020... so it basically erased that 61.8% rally up that was projected from the 2011 low to the 2020 high.

Isn't it interesting that the two FP's I have on the SPY point to roughly the 2022 high of 3393.92? They are a "slightly" higher low then that level, which is exactly the same for the 3393.92 high in 2020 compared to the 2022 low of 3491.58... and that my friends is not just some random coincidence.

The market is run by algorithm's and it's telling you (me) via the fake prints that it wants to repeat the prior pattern. The big question is... can it all happen in December? It took about a month to bottom in the 2020 crash, so I guess it could do it again without to much trouble.  Or we just get to the 533 FP in late December and a rally in January of 61.8% does the B wave, then the C wave last into February or March.

That seems like a nice and clean decline like the 2022 correction.  Will it be that easy or will it unfold all in December like the 2020 crash did?  I lean toward the flash crash model so that Trump doesn't get the blame for it and while he (or any president) does not control the bigger cycles in the market they can manipulate the short term with the Fed pumping money into the system behind the scene.  Is that happening right now?  Probably.

And let's face it, the Deep State is in full panic mode right now and they must be thinking about doing some kind of False Flag event before Trump takes office in January.  Therefore it's not logical to think we'll have a clean decline.  A flash crash drop is more likely I think.  We shall see.

Lastly I want to point out a "possibly" FP I have on the SPY from Wednesday morning before the open.  It's at 583, which is probably the 5860-5870 area on the ES.  That's the exact area I'm looking for the short term pullback of 100-200 points go to.  I'm a bull if that level is hit in the next few days.

Have a great weekend.

WOW! What a squeeze yesterday after a wonderful victory for America with a Trump win. Now we have a chance to save the country from the satanists that have been destroying it for the last 4 years. Let's all pray he can do it as nothing can be done with God's helping hand. I do believe God put him in place to give all us sinners another chance to bring America back to a republic, the way it was originally created.

A country formed from the Bible with Christian values, but has turned into Sodom and Gomorrah in the past many decades. President Trump can fix a lot of things now but the market isn't one of them. It's all based on cycles and no president has ever controlled it. It was in a bull cycle since the 2022 low and will enter a bear cycle in 2025. As for the short term, the market is topping for this current move up, which played out like I posted on this wave count below from October 25th, 2024.

Recently I wasn't thinking we'd have any higher high before the coming pullback, which I think will be to the 533 FP on the SPY, but it did it all in one day when not many were expecting it. Today we have the FOMC at 2pm and I have a strong feeling we have topped and will start down after today and will bottom at the 533 FP in the next week or two.

Once done we should see one more rally up to 6100+ into early December to top it all out before the next big drop to the 483 FP's on the Yahoo site. After that we rally hard all of January, but I don't know how high? Will it be just a 61.8% bounce or we see one more even higher high before we enter the bear market? That part is unknown right now so we'll have to just cross that bridge when we get there. For now though I think we've top and will start down for the next couple of weeks.

An Alternative Path...

I want to always be open to the market surprising me with some curve ball, so here's another possibility.  If the two FP's on the Yahoo site are not real, and only the one for 533.01 from some other platform (looks like Think or Swim but I don't know?), then the drop should unfold differently.

Putting those 2 FP's form Yahoo aside, and pretending they aren't real, then we will only pullback small over the next few days (meaning NOT down to the 533.01 FP) and then we will go back up to 6100+ into the end of this month.  Once that final high is hit it will be from that level that we'll see the drop to the 533.01 into mid-December.  That would then be the low before a rally starts back up that will last through most all of January of next year.

Now that's not my lean but it's possible that we don't go any lower then that FP on the first drop and then the rally up in January will make a lower high from which possibility then we see the drop to the 483 FP into February or March?  It's something that could happen but I just don't feel it will.

I mean, we still have 3 weeks in November and we could easily drop to 533 and rally back up to 6100+ into the first week of December without too much trouble I think.  I'm open to whatever path the market wants to take but I just can't see both (or just the 483) FP's not being real targets.  Each one was put out twice, so that's double conformation that they will both be hit at some point.

The "when" part is what very hard to figure out but I have to think that we'll see the higher one of 533 first and save the lower one until after we reach 6100+ early next month.  And I also think that if we drop to 533 in the next 2 weeks all the bulls will turn into bears and stop "buying the dips", which I know they will do if we only pullback like 200 or 300 points.  We need to pullback deep enough to get all the bulls to flip to becoming bears and then the market can squeeze them back up to reach that 6100+ target in December where everyone will think the low is in as December is commonly a bullish month.  But that's when it falls off the cliff to hit the 483 FP before December ends.

Anyway, just thinking out loud...

Have a blessed day.

Tuesday Evening Update...

We finally turned up and started the bounce for Tiny Wave C inside Small Wave B, which hit the 580.01 FP on the SPY in the afterhours Tuesday night.  If all goes as expected we'll rollover by the close Wednesday to start the first of 5 tiny waves for Small Wave C inside Medium Wave 4, which I think is going to the 533.01 FP on the SPY and that it could be hit by early next week.

So far so good as far as the market going mostly as I thought it would. If it continues we should see some kind of news come out to blame the drop on in the coming days (possibly today?). But when we hit the downside FP I'll be looking for a long as from there we should rally hard into early December and I think we'll see 6100+ hit.

Tuesday Night Update...

The 580.01 was hit and the market has completed pushed through it as if it wasn't even there.  Those intraday fake prints are tough to figure out as they could also be just a late fill as most of the time they point to a closing or opening prior level.  That could be the case here as it seems non-important now.

The other fake prints, which are way away from any recent level, are much more accurate from past history.  They do hit at some point and mark a "turning point", which might be a long lasting one (weeks or months) or a short lived one (days or weeks) but they do work.  I've been tracking them since I got the first one back in 2010, so they are real.

But the intraday one's are just levels of interest that the market wants to hit but not always "turn" at.  That must be the case with the 580.01 intraday FP as it meant nothing when it came to stopping the bull squeeze going on right now, which is heading for a new all time high it seems, but is slowing down momentum right now.

Morning Update...

WOW!  What an amazing rally! And more important a Trump HUGE Victory with getting the majority in the Senate and holding Congress too.  This is great.  As for the market we've made a new all time high on the ES and the YM (Dow), but not quite yet on the NQ, which is very close but I don't know if it's going to make it or not?

I mean, we've ran the stops on the ES now with a new high, so there might not be much more left on the upside before a pullback.  Upside resistance is just a hair under 6000 today and that's from a rising white trendline, which of course will be higher tomorrow.  One of my FET's is at 6009.50, so that's a target too.

I don't see it going all the way up to the 6100+ target yet as usually there's a pullback after a new high.  You know the ol' saying... when you see a "Double Top" you "Sell A Double Top".  But my focus will be on the technicals, which include turn dates, FP's and FET's of course.  Now if the Nasdaq can make a new all time high, which would run the stops above it, then I'd say we've topped and will start a pullback.

Maybe we see that happen going into the FOMC tomorrow?  There's nothing to cause a move down yet, but the Fed could send it down by something they say or do.  I know the downside coming low is the 533.01 SPY level but I don't know where or when we top before we start that move down.  For now there's nothing to do until we see some exhaustion.

Have a blessed day.

The market is still holding the same zone as it waits on the election results. I don't know if we get the move up to the 580.01 FP on the SPY or not but if we do it's a short in my opinion. I seen another new FP yesterday on the Yahoo site that matches the 533.01 FP previously posted, which it was from some other charting platform.

To me it means we are going down to that level soon as that's double conformation of that target. The "when" part is unknown but it has too be shortly after the election. Of course once it's hit I think it's a buy for the rally up into early December for 6100+ to end the rally before a much bigger pullback. Here's that new FP...

Have a blessed day.

I don't have much to say this morning as all eyes will be focused on the election, and what the Fed does on Wednesday at the FOMC meeting. Keep in mind we probably won't have the final result the day of or day after the election as the deep state have clearly said it will take weeks to cheat, but most think Trump will win.

From a technical point of view the market is oversold on the short term chart and due another move up, but I don't know how high we go. In the end though we should reach 6100+ where my two FET targets are at (6082 and 6189), but we might not see it until December?

Possibly the intraday 'possibly" FP on the SPY from last Thursday at 580.01 might be the high for any move up prior to the dump?  Here's that chart below, but forget the wave count as it will be wrong.

Meaning we might still make some knee jerk move up on Tuesday from early poll results showing Trump is ahead, and then start down hard Wednesday if those results aren't accepted and final.  If so, I think will be going to my FP's on the SPY of 533 and 483, but I don't know which one or when.  I still lean toward the 533 one though as it makes the most sense with my wave count.

As crazy as this sounds it's very possible that we don't those big upside levels until December, as that's the month that has the most bearish events in it from Astrology, and it would have everyone bullish into the end of the year looking for the Christmas rally... especially if we do a fast drop to 533 first, as everyone will think that's the low for the year we we hit a new all time high the following month.

That's kind of what happened on election day in 2016, but back then it was a one day "limit down" move that recovered by the open the next day and then the market rallied for many months afterwards, so the low was put in back then.  This time around though we'll see a surprise drop in December that very few will catch.

Anyway, I'll end it here and I've covered everything already in prior posts. For the short term I think we start going up but it might have some wild moves with the unknown events this week.  If we rally on Tuesday to the possibly FP on the SPY and get overbought short term I might risk a short with the thoughts that Wednesday we'll tank from not knowing who won.

Don't forget that Wednesday the Fed might lower rates again with another .50 basis points instead of the .25 that most are expecting.  Combine that with no clear winner with the election and panic could set in.

And lastly here's my latest possible wave count...

Have a blessed day.

Surprise, surprise, surprise... the market dumps with all the bears asleep (including me). I honestly had given up on the pullback to the 5700 zone as every tiny pullback over the past 2 weeks got bought up, but support finally broke yesterday and down it went.

As of the close yesterday we hit a low of 5738 and we are right into the horizontal support zone from 9/23 to 10/8 period, which the lowest low back then was 5721, and that may or may not be taken out before we start the next big squeeze for Tiny Wave 5, inside Small Wave 5, inside Medium Wave 3, and while I don't know how high it goes, or what day it tops, I lean toward one of my FET's of 6082.46 or 6189.54, and "time wise" think a week after the election is the most likely period... possibly right into OPEX on the 15th?

Here's a chart...

But... we could see it there much, much faster as a Trump win could cause a euphoria type move, which seems likely right now. I know the deep state is going to cheat, so it's possible that they delay the result for weeks to try and cheat, but that's also suggesting a big drop after the election as fear of the unknown sets in.

I just don't see it right now as this pullback is resetting the overbought charts and we should explode higher next week as that's what the technicals say. Yes, I was thinking we would top into the election but right now it's looking like they are bottoming instead as we go into it. If we bottom today it's likely we'll see a wave 1 up on Monday and wave 2 down into the election Tuesday. Then a Trump win will cause the wave 3 up to follow, and it should be a powerful move. Bottom line here, I'm looking for a big squeeze starting very soon.

Here's a chart...

As you can see we dropped right into the support zone with 5724 marking the lowest low on 10/2, which I'm unsure on whether or not that it pierced to hit some stops or if it holds with a higher low.  But all short term charts are oversold now, so it's just a matter of time before we see a big squeeze.  I think we could see it start today as many Fridays' have a late day rally.

My only real worry is that the daily chart could go lower before it gets fully oversold.  In the past it would stop prior to reaching the oversold level on the RSI and turn back up, but with the weekly chart pointing down and putting bearish pressure on the market I must be open for it to reach a fully oversold position prior to starting a big rally up.

The Daily Chart...

There are many unknowns coming in the next few days (and weeks), so I'm just trying to point them all out.  A grind up into the week of OPEX with 6100+ would be perfect to put the bears to sleep.  But that would mean a clean, uncontested election and I don't think we will get that.  So I'm still open to the possibility of a squeeze up into the election that double tops and then there's no clear win... so down we go, probably to my 533.01 FP on the SPY.  We'll see..

Have a great weekend.

Chop, chop, chop... up and down and up and down we go, into the election to no mans land we roll. We are getting close now to some final high, and I still think it's around the election, but I don't know if it's going to be higher high or lower high.  There's just no way to be sure if we get the 6100+ high around the election or if they save it for December after pulling back first.

So, I've just been watching the Nasdaq closely as it's super close to a new high and that could be all they want to do... just squeak out a higher high there, and then we can have a good pullback with my 533.01 FP on the SPY as my downside target in mid-late November.

As for today, I'll only point out that the end of "most" every month there is a "turn" in the market, and since we pulled back yesterday that "turn" should be up.  So I'd be looking for a break to the upside to start soon and if it's a new high into the election that's just a better spot to short from.  The 6100-6200 is the target zone, and if it's hit on this run higher and not the December one that's fine with me too.

Have a blessed day.

Up as expected yesterday as the market breaks out of the falling channel. I think it's pretty obvious now that the market is holding up into the election, which isn't a shocker really. With polls now favoring a Trump win it seems that traders are buying in front of it thinking that we will continue higher after he wins. But the technicals tell me we will rollover afterwards instead as we have quadruple negative divergence on the weekly chart right now, with the RSI pointing down, and the daily chart also has a weak looking RSI with the MACD pointing down too.

The short term charts are the only ones that are bullish that I can see. The 6hr chart is pointing up on its' RSI and MACD, but it's a grindfest to gain much traction without support from the daily it seems. I don't have much to add that hasn't already been said.

It could grind all week long as we are in a holding pattern until the election is over with. Maybe they squeeze out a slight higher high, or it's just a double top? It's hard too tell on the ES/SPX right now as there's plenty of time left to do that new high if the want too. I don't think its' as important as the Nasdaq as the market might be trying to make a new high on it before we top and tank, and the ES can just do whatever when that happens.

Have a blessed day.

A whole lot of nothing yesterday as the market chops as expected. It's clear that the market is waiting on the election results so I still don't think we'll see any big break either direction until afterwards. I favor a move down of course as not only does the technical suggest a pullback is coming but I fully believe that we won't have any final decision on who won the election after it's finished. This "uncertainty" should be blamed for the drop in mid-late November and I wouldn't be surprised if it gets resolved right at the low of that pullback. As for the short term I posted a possible wave count on Twitter yesterday, and here is that chart again...

You can see a rising channel on the very short term that we are in and a falling channel on the short term. Assuming the lower trendline of the rising channel holds (and I think it will) we should move up in the next few days to complete a 5 wave pattern for the C wave. That might be finished before the end of this week, and probably before the election next Tuesday.

And if it's a lower high I have to think we'll be moving down a little in front of the election inside of Medium Wave 4 (the early waves of course). A lower high this week and a move down into the election will suggest we topped for a Small Wave B as covered on my post yesterday, and that we are inside of Tiny Wave 1 of Small Wave C, inside Medium Wave 4, which is a nasty, and very bearish wave pattern... especially if the results from the election are not known.

And let's face it, do we really think the demoncrats are going to accept a Trump win? Of course not. Even if it's a blow out (and it should be) they will still fight it, and that should cause a panic in the market, which combined with that nasty wave pattern will setup a hard and fast move down.

I do not know the low but I have the two fake prints of 533.01 and the 483.07/483.62 (the fake print was put out twice) so I have to assume one of them is the likely target. I think it's the 533.01 one because I think they are saving the lower 483 target for December as it will due too much technical damage to the market if they do it first, before hitting the upside 6100+ high I mean.

Anyway, as for today I think we continue to chop but with an upside bias most likely. The Tiny B Wave on the chart I posted for the very short term likely completed last Thursday, and the move up from there was an Extra Tiny Wave 1, with the sideways pullback yesterday carving out the Extra Tiny Wave 2, which leaves Extra Tiny Wave 3 up in play next. It should breakout of the top trendline of resistance in the falling channel, and after that there's just Extra Tiny Wave 4 down and 5 up to complete Tiny C of Small B, which again... I think think ends before this week is over.

Have a blessed day.