The Typical Scenario...

No time was wasted yesterday as it put in the bottom for my smaller B wave, which I thought might carry into today where the final low would be but it didn't take that long and just turned back up and grinded higher the rest of the day with a big squeeze after the close. We are clearly in the C wave up now, inside a bigger B wave. The chart below was posted in the chatroom yesterday and it's playing out nicely.

I thought we would only go up about half of the down move and then pull back one last time today for a higher lower (or slightly lower low) but that part was completely wrong as we just took out the 5128 high of the smaller A wave in the afterhours session.

I'm sure that the smaller C wave will unfold in 5 waves but I'm not sure where we are in it right now. The afterhours squeeze sure felt like a wave 3 of some degree, and there was a pullback around 2:00-2:30 pm EST yesterday, which could have been a wave 2? It's hard to figure out the smaller waves but it's clear that we are inside the smaller C wave up in the bigger B wave.

I think it will end between 5192.16 to 5230.87 going into next Wednesdays FOMC meeting. Then I think we drop for the bigger C wave over the following several weeks. It could end up being a fast drop, but it could also drag out in time and last into the end of the month. Yes, that would stink as it's very hard to trade when it has so many up's and down's, which is exactly what the bigger A wave had. It drove me nuts in the beginning with all the fast one day drops that got reversed back up hard the next day. Hopefully the bigger C wave won't do that and will just drop non-stop with next to nothing for bounces and hit the FP on the SPY within the typical 8-10 days that these patterns commonly play out with.

As for today, it's a Friday so I'd expect it to close green. There could be some kind of pullback today but usually they hold the market up and go sideways after doing powerful squeeze like they did after the close yesterday. Then Monday and Tuesday should be choppy too as the market waits on the FOMC. Somewhere in there we'll see the wave 4 down and then the wave 5 up into Wednesday ideally.

The Wild Card Scenario...

I give this equal odds of playing out.  We have got really close to the 50% retrace from the bottom compared to the all time high, which is 5148.50, and we are super close to it now.  If it's hit today I will have to short it and look for the drop the FP to happen into the FOMC next week to put in a low, not a high.

Bulls do NOT want to see this happen if they plan on going up to 61.8%+ into next week.  Bulls will want to go sideways to build a base after such a strong move up.  That means they will want to just hold this zone today and NOT rally up to the 50% retrace zone today, as if they do that then the 61.8%+ is likely off the table.

It means the entire rally up from the 4963.50 low is just a wave 4 and that we'll have that last move down to the FP on the SPY afterwards, which will be the 5th wave of course, and should bottom into the FOMC next week.

If we see a rally up to the 5148.50 level I will get bearish and will short it looking again for my FP on the SPY of 483 to be hit next week, and likely right into the FOMC meeting.

In conclusion...

The market is either going up to 61.8%+ into the FOMC, which would require today to be a "rest day" where the market does NOT go up much higher, and stays under the 50% retrace level... or the market will exhaust itself with a last squeeze up to the 50% retrace level today, which will kill the 61.8% target and result in a drop to the FP into the FOMC instead of a high.

Have a great weekend.

As expected we had a pause day yesterday being up part of the day and down part of the day, but closing about flat. Then afterhours we dropped more, which is making a nice inverted head and shoulders pattern as shown below on the 2hr chart.

Using my FET system it projects a high of 5230.57, which is higher then the 50% retrace I was looking for, but it's something to keep in the back of my mind as possible. It would be around a 70% retrace of the down move from the top if it happens. I'll just be looking at the technicals and the typical turn zones, which is around the end of this month.

We have the GDP numbers and Jobless Claims out this morning, so a nice move up or down should happen.  From a technical point of view we should go up, but we could drop hard too.  I don't think it's going to happen anything is possible.  I know at some point we are going down to hit the FP on the SPY, but I lean toward more upside first.

Next Wednesday is May the 1st and we have another FOMC meeting, so if we can rally up into it then I think we could top out and drop hard after it.  Most of the time FOMC meetings are non-events that commonly have the following Thursday and Friday going up some.  Then the following week the market can pullback if the technicals are overbought, or rally if still bullish.

My point is that they are usually bullish when all the dust settles.  It's about time for a shock I think.  The weekly chart is still putting downward pressure on the market and a rally up into the meeting will get all the short term charts overbought, and the daily will have come back up from oversold, so it can roll back down again.

These technicals suggest another move down is coming, and I have the FP too.  Seasonality is usually weak in May as well, so there's lots of reasons to think that this coming meeting could shock the market.

Have a blessed day.

Yesterday rally has likely killed my wave count. The resistance was busted through, and now we appear to be getting the 50% rally up that I thought we wouldn't see until after we hit the FP on the SPY. This changes everything I think as now we will likely put in a low at the FP into early May and that will be "the low" for this correction.

I had previously thought that we would rally up 50% from the FP and then go back down to 4600, 4400, or even 4000, but those odds are super low now. We would have to rollover today and drop hard to the FP into this Friday, which then could bring those lower targets back in play, but that's the only way I see it possible. I posted the chart below yesterday in the chatroom, and it's what I think will play out now.

The top for this rally could end by next Monday or Tuesday, and then the drop to the FP should follow and bottom within 7-9 days (love to see it happen in 5-7 though). For the short term we are getting extended, so a pullback of 30-40 points could come at anytime. Here's a chart I posted yesterday showing it.

This is disappointing but we must remember that we are still in a bull market, so I really shouldn't be surprised. This will end up being about an 8% pullback from the top in an ABC pattern if my thoughts on the charts on this post are accurate. We shall see.

Have a blessed day.

We didn't get that last drop yesterday as the market was too oversold short term it seems. A nice bounce happened instead, which could last one more day I think, but it's close to over with. It's a wave 4 up I believe, and here's a chart I posted in the chatroom yesterday showing it. Afterwards we did go up and pierce through the falling white trendline but the market couldn't hold it and closed below it yesterday.

Now that was the 2hr chart, which was getting extending yesterday for sure, so there's limited upside on it. But the 6hr chart says we can go a little higher on it before we top out for the wave 4 up. Whether that happens or not the market is still missing the last move down to hit the FP on the SPY, and I'll be looking to exit my short there and go long. Nothing more to really add. I'm just being patience.

Have a blessed day.

The market continues lower as we get closer and closer to the FP on the SPY. Last Thursday had a nice drop in the futures but was fully recovered by the open on Friday. However, it never held as as the market rolled back over the rest of the day. This week (possibly today or Tuesday) we should see the FP hit, and that's where I think we get a 50% retrace back up, and should complete by the end of this week or early next week.

From there is where it gets tricky as while I do think we will roll back over and go down again I just don't know how much. Will be be a higher low, meaning the move up from the FP is a wave 1 of some degree and the pullback is a wave 2?

Or will it be a lower low, meaning the drop from the all time high to the FP is just an A wave and the bounce of 50% is a B wave, so the drop after that would be a C wave. I don't know the answer but looking at the technicals on the weekly chart I'd have to lean toward the ABC as it's quite bearish, so I don't see the market just resuming the non-stop rally yet.

More time is needed to allow the weekly chart to reset as it will need to turn back up and support the daily chart to get that day after day grind going again. Yes, the daily is almost oversold and will turn back up after the FP on the SPY is hit, but the weekly is more powerful and will keep downward pressure on the daily, so rallies will not "stick" in my opinion.

My best guess is that the weekly chart will need 3-4 more weeks of "time" to get it deep enough to bottom and turn back up. Basically the first, second, or possibly the third week of May should about finish it. Of course if the price is deep enough then we could be finished in the first week, but if price isn't that deep then it might last into the third week.

For example, if we dropped to 4000 then it should finish in the first week, but if we only drop to 4800 then I'd say the third week would be needed. This is on the second leg down of course, which will be the C wave. The 4800 zone will be support as the high in 2022 was 4808 on the ES (4818 SPX), so if the market wants to stop there then I'd have to think there will be a lot of up's and down's from that zone before we get going back up strongly in a real rally... meaning late May to early June before it starts.

But if we drop to the 200 week moving average at just under 4200 then the weekly chart will be quite oversold and the correction will end sooner, as well as the rally back up from it will be faster and more powerful. Again, I don't know the target low but when I reverse my Fibonacci Extension Target system to forecast a downside projection it points to roughly the 4600 zone on the ES and SPX, but I've not used it for downside targets so I don't know if that will be accurate or not?

Another important support will be from a rising trendline that connects the 2020 low, with the 2022 low, and the 2023 low, which is in the 4370-4400 zone (depends on when it's hit). This all assumes of course that we will decline in a C wave after the bounce back up from hitting the FP on the SPY. If that low turns out to be the bottom then these targets are worthless as then we'll be off to the races again to 6000+ in the coming many months.

But let's assume I'm right and we do get another drop lower in a C wave, and let's look as something else that is interesting. The low of 2174 (ES) in 2020 to the high of 4808 in 2022 was followed by a pullback into late 2022 that bottomed at 3502. Now, from the 4808 to the 2174 low the 50% retrace level was 3491, so that 3502 level was basically a 50% retrace of the entire rally up from 2020 to early 2022.

Well, if we take the 3502 low up to the current 5333 high, and do a retrace of 50%, where does that point too? It points to 4417 (ES), so if we repeat the past that could be our downside target. It would also hit (and pierce) a rising trendline that forms a channel.

It's created from the 3502 low and the 10/26/23 low of 4122 and shown on my charts in dashed white. So that is certainly an important level to pay attention to. As far as "time" I have to think that if we start dropping hard and fast for the coming C wave the low could be in by the first week of May, or into part of the second week.

It's just something that will have to be monitored along the way and adapted to.  The strength or weakness of the next drop will determine the "time" part, and possibly the price target to?

For now though let's just see the FP on the SPY hit first so I can exit my short and go long for the 50% bounce.  After that I'll just re-evaluate and adjust to whatever the market throws at me.

Have a blessed day.

A nothing day yesterday as the chop continued. This 5050 area on the ES is critical support for the bulls, which is why it's been such a battleground. To me it's just delaying the move down to the FP, which is coming one way or the other. At this point it's looking like it will be next week, which is fine with me. Possibly next Monday or Tuesday as we are only about 150 points or so away from it.

On the ES it should be around 4880-4890 and on the SPX around 4850 or so. That could hit even today, but with it being OPEX I have to think they will hold it up to pin it at wherever max pain is for options. That's all I have for now. Here's yesterday wave count I posted in the chatroom.

Keep in mind that if we hit the FP today that means they plan on gaping it up on Monday to do the 50% retrace with everyone trapped short over the weekend expecting a crash.  It won't happen.  Once the FP is hit the market will reverse.  With two FP's in the 483 zone on the SPY that's double conformation that it's real and that we will turn back up from it.

I would fully expect a gap up Monday (big one) and a squeeze all week.  I guess it could be over with by Wednesday but it should last the whole week I think.  I'll just be looking for a 50% move up (probably a hair more as it rarely stops right at 50), which is where I'll exit the long I plan on taking at the FP... if hit today. I'm still short and will exit it when the FP is hit, whether that's today or Monday.  But I get the feeling we will hit it today to get all the bears to stay short over the weekend.

I've been down this road many times thinking a crash would happen the following Monday, and it never did.  And now I have two FP's around the same area as well, so I know that once they are hit this market will squeeze back up the next day.  It's the perfect trap to do it over a weekend, so I promise you I will be exiting my short at the FP today and going long.

Have a great weekend.

The market finally broke down yesterday but then recovered a lot of it before the close. Nothing really to do right now but wait as I know we will be hitting the FP on the SPY soon. It could happened today or tomorrow? I don't know the when part but I'm just holding my shorts and will only exit once it's hit.

Then I'll go long for a 50% retrace, which should be back to around 5100 or so. Time wise I'd say that will happen within 2 weeks... probably faster, like 1 week. After that happens I don't know? I'll have let it all play out and see what the charts look like at that point. The weekly chart is quite bearish looking so the move down after the retrace could be lower then the coming low at the FP, but it's not something I can forecast right now. One trade at a time and for me it's just to stay short until 483 on the SPY is reached and then get long.

Have a blessed day.

A "pause" day yesterday as the market completed what I think was Extra Tiny Wave 4 and 5, which completed Tiny Wave 3 down. After that is Tiny Wave 4 up, which could be very small as I posted on my chart I did of the wave count from Friday, April 12th close.

Now if we get any kind of good squeeze going then T4 will probably last about a week and could retrace 50-61.8% of the entire drop.

It's a tough call on what is going to play out. If the market can't get much going on the upside today then I think time will run out for the bulls and that we'll start Tiny Wave 5 down, which could reach the FP on the SPY by tomorrow. It's a "gut" feel thing right now on whether or not we are going to rollover hard or delay it and start a good rally as I don't know which scenario is correct.

Have a blessed day.

Another tricky move yesterday as we did get an early rally that looked like it might be going up to the FP on the QQQ, but then it rolled over and dropped steady the rest of the day, which I thought was at first just some B wave with the C up into the FP coming today. But that didn't happen as the market broke down in what is likely my Extra Tiny Wave 3, inside Tiny Wave 3, inside Small Wave C of Medium Wave 4.

I posted that chart on yesterdays update and it's tracking quite well so far... except for the rally up to the FP on the QQQ of course. When it was obvious that it wasn't going to go back up I took a small short. I hate chasing the market after it's already dropped 50 points but since I know we are going to the FP on the SPY I knew it would be worth the risk.

I think we will hit that 483 FP by this Wednesday, so I would not look for much of a bounce today. It's a short no matter how much it bounces and is a gift to the bears. I'll be looking for another spot to short again today but I doubt if I get much of a bounce. When we hit (and pierce) the FP of 483 on the SPY I expect to see a rally up of 61.85 of the drop into the end of this month.

We'll then likely pullback again for a higher low in the first or second week of May. The should be a wave 1 up and 2 down, so after that pullback I'll expect to see a super strong wave 3 rally up for a wave 3, which should go into June and beyond probably. Although I didn't get my ideal entry for the short I still got a small bit of it, and will really be excited to catch the long once the FP is hit.

Have a blessed day.

What a disaster for the bulls last Friday. I thought we would rally back up as the technicals where getting down in a zone where "turns" back up commonly happen, but it instead we took another large move down. I have to now rethink what is happening here. But first, let me share another FP on the QQQ that appeared Friday morning before the open.

This FP is for 445.70, and pretty much is a full reverse (about 95%) of the drop on Friday. Now that's ONLY on the QQQ, and it's stronger then the ES, so if this happen I don't think the ES will recover as much... maybe 75-80% of the move down? The ES is in a falling channel, whereas the QQQ (Nasdaq) is in more of a sideways channel. If the FP is hit early this week on the QQQ I think we might reach 5220-5230 on the ES, but not all the way back to the 5245 zone where it spent the premarket session at Friday.

Ok, so I said I have to rethink everything... which I have. I was stubborn and thinking that we'd only get a small pullback (which we have... so far) and then we'd go back up again and continue the grind like we've done for months now. But over the weekend I stepped back and re-thought about everything, and I've concluded that it's very likely that we are now in the 5-10% correction after all.

My FET of 5334 was a direct hit with the current all time high being just one point shy of it, so why would I think that a target that important would just produce a minor dip? I should have woke up and slapped myself and said "hey dummy, it's time for the 5-10% correction now", but I guess I've been so used too all the dips being bought, and new all time highs following, that I couldn't see the forest for the trees.

However, God gave me a good wake up last week with a second FP on the SPY that only lasted one day before disappearing. Guess where it was? The same 483 zone as the prior one back on March 1st.

Here's the first old one from March 1st below...

Now that's 2 Fake Prints showing the same level that disappeared within one or two days. Isn't that interesting?

Of course it's a signal that's telling all the insiders where the market will bottom at whenever the correction starts. So are we in the correction now? I have to think the odds are good that we are indeed in the 5-10% correction right now, and "if" we get some move up to the QQQ FP of 445.70 early this week I think it will be the last strong bounce before we have what will probably be a C wave drop (non-stop) that will hit the 483 SPY FP, which will be roughly 4880 or so on the ES (4830 or so on the SPX).

I've been clearly wrong on this pullback as it's more then that... it's the correction that everyone has been waiting for now for months. We could just go straight down to the SPY FP this week without any bounce back up to the QQQ FP, but the last 2 weeks the QQQ's have been a gold mine for FP's and they have all been hit within a few days, so I have no reason to believe this one won't be hit to. I just don't know the "when" part, but if it happens Monday it will NOT likely be the start of a big squeeze up to new all time highs as the history of those FP's don't support that, but instead they have all marked a "turning point".

Just look at all of them. They all got hit, pierced, and the market reversed back up the other direction. Why would this one be any different? When it's hit it I do think we'll turn back down again from it. The market will likely show NO FP whenever it's really going to run up and breakout to a new high and start the next multi-month grind higher, but that could be a month away.

The very fact that this FP appeared last Friday is proof to me that we are not ready for another trend move up. It will only be another short squeeze that ends and gets reversed back down again. How low we go is anyone's guess? Maybe the market isn't in the 5-10% correction now? But the second 483 FP is telling me we are indeed in it, and all of these wild swings up and down look a lot like a whole bunch of wave 1's down and 2's up before a wave 3 of a 3 of a 3 (or A's and B's and then a C of C.... you get the idea). Here's what I see as possible with the waves...

Yes, we could be setting up a nasty crash like wave down coming this week, and it might be over with by mid-week. I really am kicking myself for not seeing this but I'm human and make mistakes, and this market is not easy to figure out. But if we do get one more move up early this week I think it's the ideal short before we drop to the 483 FP on the SPY later this week.

Here's the bigger picture wave count on the daily chart of the SPX cash...

That dashed pink rising trendline will be strong resistance when it's hit this summer/fall, and it might mark the final high for Medium Wave 5?  The biggest Fibonacci Extension Target is at 6441.96, but who knows if that final leg up gets hit or not?  But I'll certainly be excited to ride that long out as it will be a huge money maker, and way easier then this correction.

Have a blessed day.

The market appears to have bottomed now as I was thinking it would. Looking at the 2hr, 6hr and daily chart the all support a lot more upside. While bears are likely shorting this bounce I don't see again big drop. The technicals look very bullish now The 2hr chart below looks bottomed to me.

And here on the 6hr hour chart the MACD and RSI have plenty of room to run up higher today and early next week.

The daily chart never reached oversold, but that's normal in a strong bull market, which we are still in I think. The RSI reached the 50% mark and turned back up yesterday, but the MACD's haven't yet made that turn. That doesn't mean it won't, and it is a lagging indicator, so another 1-2 days of upside should hook it back up.

The entire week plus correction is a bull flag as well, so unless some other big negative news comes out I see no reason to expect any more downside. I went in to detail yesterday on "why" this pullback does have any of the patterns that real corrections have. Everything says it's just a pullback and not some 5-10% correction.

As for the weekly chart, it's still very overbought, but there's NO negative divergence on it, so I suspect we are going up into June or so "in price" and down on the MACD "in volume weight". The RSI will likely go down too as the market goes up.

Have a blessed day.

The CPI didn't disappoint as we got a quick spike up on the QQQ to hit the FP and then reversed back down hard by the open. We spent the day down near the low but we didn't breakdown on the Nasdaq by making a lower low then the 4/4 low, and on SPX we pierced that prior bottom but closed up higher.

The DOW did close below it and so did the Russell, but overall the bulls have held the most important support zone. If they continue to hold then odds are good that the pullback is over with and the 5-10% correction is delayed for sometime in the future. I did several posts on Twitter throughout the day yesterday with my thoughts, and the one below is super important.

If the bears can close below the April 4th today or tomorrow then we are likely back on for the 5-10%, but if they don't then I expect to see new highs in the coming days... possibly this Friday? But that might be asking for to much in just 2 days. Next week though I do expect the bulls to rip it up again and I'll start looking for the next short term FET, which is at 5435.93.

This again, assumes the current low holds, and think there are good odds that it will. In fact, I posted in the chatroom yesterday my reasons for thinking that...

"For the record, I did not short this. I couldn't as it happened when the cash market wasn't open. But if I would have shorted it I would have already closed it at the double bottom opening area. This entire multi-week pullback has been a disaster for the bears. A real correction would have NOT had all the big squeezes every day after a fast drop. It would have started slowly on the downside (NO fast mini-crash like drops) and would have very small bounce.

It would have done this for 3-5 days and then accelerated into the last 6-9 days with non-stop drops. After about 8-11 days the bottom would be in... at least for the first big wave. Then a strong 50-61.8% retrace over 3-5 days would follow. We've NOT seen any of that. This smells of a bear trap... and if that NDX Seasonality Chart is right we'll see new highs very soon. "

As you can see my thoughts are based on my past experience with seeing real corrections start and finish. History will show you that most correction do NOT start off like what we've seen in the past several weeks. The current pullback we've had is not normal for a real correction.

All of the fast drops were done to wake up the bears in my opinion so they can be used as fuel to squeeze in the near futures. Like I said, most real corrections start slow and don't have many good bounces. They don't wake up the bears until the bottom when it capitulates. It's the idea of putting a frog in boiling water as he will surely jump out. That's what we've had recently with these fast drops.

Real corrections start slow, meaning you put the frog in cold water and slowly raise the temperature until it boils. By the time the frog realizes that the water is hot it's too late as he's already cooked. Same thing happens in the market as the bulls will keep buying the slow pullbacks thinking it's going to bounce soon, but after 9-11 days the market could be down 10% and the bulls will then throw in the towel and go short. That's when the low will be in and a strong bounce will follow.

In conclusion, I think we are going up today, tomorrow and next week, similar to the prior correction back in early January of this year.  The weakness should be reversed back up by the close.

Have a blessed day.

WOW! What a crazy day yesterday (and Monday). I had hoped that the market would rally up into the CPI and then tank after it, but Mr. Market threw a curve ball yesterday with that fast midday drop. When it happened I posted on Twitter that I thought the correction was canceled for now as it appeared that we would be going into the CPI with a low, but then late in the day the drop reversed right back up to close about flat.

That rally still did not take out the FP on the QQQ at 444.17, so we didn't close at a high going into the CPI either. Therefore anything is possible... meaning the correction is still on the table as all we need to do is to have a rally up through the FP to run the stops on the bears, and then we can still reverse back down later in the day to start the correction.

The market was very sneaky yesterday as if it would have closed down at the low I do think the correction would have been canceled (for now at least), but it's still open now and can happen. I expect to see a lot of wild swings up and down today as the prior CPI had like 4 or 5 big moves if I recall. I mean we could drop 50 points in a flash and go back up 50 points above the flat line (the spot the market is at prior to the CPI). That's a 100 point swing in total, and it could happen several times today before picking the real direction.

I still lean down as the charts tell me the market is tired and will have a correction start soon. I covered them all on Mondays post and nothing has really changed since then. But I also think that we will first go up to take out the stops on the bears, and then go down with the bulls trapped long.

How high is something I just don't know? It should be a lower high, which might be by just a few points? But technically I think it should stop around the 5308 high from 4/4... meaning it might pierce through it a few points but is more likely to stay under it. I would love to see it taken out a little and get really close to the all time high as that would scare the bears out and suck in the bulls... "the ultimate trap".

My plan is to get a short but it must be up around that 5300+ zone before I will risk it. Then I'll take my chances to see if the correction happens or not.

Have a blessed day.

A "pause" day yesterday, which today could be the same if the market is waiting on the CPI tomorrow. I would prefer to see a move up to hit the FP on the QQQ beforehand, which again is around 5280-5290 on the ES, but we might not see it until after the CPI? The market is waiting for something to spark the next move, so there's nothing to do now but wait.

Keep in mind that the FP could be hit in the premarket session tomorrow and it could be reversed by the open. That has happened before where the futures reaches some level (to run the stops) but the cash market doesn't. Clearly that's a issue for people (like me) that don't trade futures as then one might miss the FP to take a short. Nothing else to cover so I'll just end it here.

Have a blessed day.

We rallied as expected on Friday and hit the FP on the QQQ and then we pulled back about a third of the move up. I spent Friday looking closely at all the charts and while I said on Friday that we appear to be starting the much wanted 5-10% correction, I then posted on twitter that it's not ready yet.

Meaning that it's possible that there's one more higher high left before the correction starts.  I'm not sure or not if we get it as there's a ton of resistance overhead in the 5280-5290 zone on the ES, and if... just "if" we can get through it we should squeeze up to a new high and then rollover and start the correction.

What do I think the odds are on that happening Monday or Tuesday?  Probably only 10% or so.  Therefore I think there's a 90% chance that zone will stop the bulls and that we'll rollover from there and start the correction.  That drop on Thursday just buried the RSI on the short term charts and woke up too many bears I think, which is why we need to go up to hit that zone first to scare them out.

I've been studying the weekly and daily charts over the weekend and everything is setup for the bears to start the 5-10% correction now.  How fast it drops I don't know?

It might be similar to the 7/27/23 to 10/27/23 correction. I don't think it's going to last that long but it could I guess? Or something more like 8/31/21 to 10/1/21 for the correction, which again may or may not last the same amount of time as that one did back then. The only problem is that both of those periods were long and drawn out in time, and typically the market will flip back and forth between fast drops and slow one's... meaning we are overdue for a fast one.

Short term I'm thinking we'll rally up to the 5280-5290 zone today or Tuesday and then pullback from there, which might be into the CPI Wednesday before the open. Or, we could skip the rally and just do the pullback into the CPI, but with everyone short now, and looking for a large drop because of the Solar Eclipse, I have too think we need that last rally before any large drop.

If we go up today, or into the close on Tuesday, and reach the 5280-5290 zone, then we should pullback from it as I just don't see the market getting through that tough resistance zone.  After that we should go down.  Whether that's in front of the CPI or after it I don't know.  My point is that the market will likely go the opposite direction after the CPI, from the direction it goes into it.

I will add though that if we rally into the CPI the risk is much higher that the drop will be ugly... meaning it could take out the low from last Thursday.  I'm talking about a mini-crash where we get down that 5-10% in a few days. Yes, that's possible, but I have no way to predict that in advance so I'll adjust to whatever is given.

My Fibonacci Extension Target is pretty much hit as it is at 5334.39 and the high is 5333.50, so it's shy by less then a point, which is a direct hit in my book.  Of course one more higher high to pierce it would be a wonderful short, but I don't see it happening.

Timing is super important. If the market "bases" for a week under that level and then rips higher then it can continue as it will have formed a lot of support and will have reset larger term overbought charts. But if it does it today, it's not built a base and will fail to hold and will rollover. Could it do so into the CPI Wednesday... sure but that's been done many times in the past where the CPI produced a big turn, so I give it very low odds.  More then likely we won't get through 5280-5290 and it will be hit Monday.

I'm trying to cover all the possible moves the next few days and will just adjust to whichever one plays out. If we go down into the CPI we'll get more oversold, and it should produce a rally back up from it.  But that will only be short term as the daily and weekly charts are very overbought, so another lower high from the CPI would be likely.

Let's go over some charts now. First is the weekly...

Notice how the RSI has finally turned down from going up and up and up for what seems like forever.  The MACD is also "hooking over" now, which is a sign to me that the market is tired and needs a deeper pullback before racing off to 6000 and beyond.

Now the daily...

This coming correction should pullback about 38.2% of the rally up from the November 2023 low to the current high, which is roughly 4870 on the ES.  I've drawn it on the chart as lasting about month but it could be faster or longer in time, I just don't know?  There's a turn date on April 21st and then other on May 2nd, so maybe it's one of those dates that puts in the low?

Next is the 6 hour chart...

Notice how oversold the RSI got on that drop, and how the MACD went below the midpoint level, which in the past has produced a nice rally back up for days to weeks.  But with the weekly and daily getting tired and looking like they want to rollover here it suggests we could be ready now for a nice correction.

Lastly is the 2 hour chart...

On it you can see that we could rally up to the 5280-5290 area Monday from the oversold MACD's and RSI, but again... the weekly and daily charts are tired and won't likely support much more on the upside until we get a deeper correction.  Any rally up to that zone will not likely get through it.  It should fail and rollover again into Tuesday.

No one knows for certain when a nice correction is going to happen as bull market are known for killing the bears as they short all the way up.  But currently all the technicals tell me there's a really good chance here that the high is in now, and that we are going to start the 5-10% correction this week.

Also...

The FP on the QQQ never hit on Friday.  It got close but missed by a little.  That's another reason to think we'll go up on Monday to hit and pierce it.

Have a blessed day.

I'm finally back online after having a tornado come through my area Monday the 1st, which isn't an April Fools joke. It was fast and short lived, about 30 seconds I'd guess. Not something that should ever happen in Ohio with all the hills I have around me. I didn't get any damage to my home but the local volunteer fire department got hit hard. Many other buildings were too, as well as signs down, and of course trees. Power lines went down as some pole were snapped in half. The power company managed to get it back on yesterday morning thank goodness.

As for the market, we had a nasty drop after 2pm when the Fed's talked talking about not lower rates. The market was rallying up nicely in front it, but it came shy of hitting a new high and then "bam" down it went. Oddly I got another FP on the QQQ that told us the target. Here it is...

Now I did not think that we would go straight down to the lower one that fast but the market just caved and dropped all the way into the close yesterday and hit that downside FP... truly amazing! It was a very nice ABC move down from the current all time high, and it's keeping my FET of 5334 intact so far as well.

That's really what I expected as it's such a large one. That level is calculated from the October 2022 low to the July 2023 high, so it's a strong one and should produce a 5-10% correction in the coming weeks. Short term though we will likely go back up again today, and possibly into Monday... which is the Solar Eclipse is case you forgot. And it looks like they are giving everyone the upside target again with other FP that came out after the close yesterday.

The new FP on the QQQ is at 444.17, and another lower high, which tells me that we've likely topped out and the 5333.50 high is the top. From here going forward we should start going down. That's of course after we rally back up to the new FP, which might happen today from the Non-Farm Payroll Report before the open?

I don't know for certain that the new FP will be hit, but all the others have, so this one should too. My lean is to see it hit on Monday, but I won't rule out that we could get 90% of it done into the close today and the rest is just a gentle float higher Monday to make sure there's no bears left before the next leg down starts. Have a great weekend and get ready for some more wild swings next week as I think the much wanted 5-10% correction is finally starting.

Have a blessed day.

Yesterday did indeed pullback after hitting my FET of 5334, which the technicals supported it as well because the RSI and MACD was overbought on the 6hr chart and the 2hr. They will likely become oversold today, which is great as the QQQ pulled back too and is getting closer to hitting and piercing the FP of 441.00, which is where I'll go long again at.  Here's that chart...

As far as "where should the market rally to next", I have a shorter term FET of 5367.59, which would be my best guess. Beyond that would be 5435.02, but that's really reaching in my opinion. The larger FET of 5334 is likely going to keep the market in a range until the next turn date can hit, which is the 8th, or the 21st (19th is the trading day as that's a Sunday).

I can see the FET of 5367.59 hit but I don't see the higher one just yet as the 5334 is a larger Fibonacci Extension Target, so a nice pullback should happen from it.  We could dance around for weeks though and pierce by 30-50 points I guess, but we should not start another large rally up until a good pullback happen from it.

So I'm thinking the market will be in a 100 or so point range for the next 2-3 weeks, whereas it doesn't make any new significant higher high. Maybe the next rally up only makes a double top? That's what I'm leaning toward. Everyone will short it, but it won't pullback that much and instead will just continue in that 100 or so point choppy range.

It could top next Monday on the 8th but I get the feeling it will pullback that date to skip it and wait until Friday the 19th (OPEX) and then Sunday night in the futures it might squeak out a slightly higher high (the 21st is the exact turn date) but by the open on Monday the 22nd it's below Fridays high. It's from that high that I think we will get our 5-10% pullback. This of course is "if" this all plays out like I think it's going to, which is anyone's guess.

The month of May is weak anyway from a Seasonality stand point, so I'd lean more toward the pullback starting in the second half of April and going into May instead of topping on the 8th and having most all of April in the correction.  The last 11 days of the month would be more likely in my opinion, not 22 days of it.

As for today, I'm on the lookout for the FP on the QQQ to get hit as the MACD's and RSI will likely be oversold on the ES when that happens too.  Then I'll go long again and wait for them to get overbought again to exit.  I wouldn't be shocked to see just a fast 2-3 day squeeze and then back down again into next week.  Rinse and repeat to frustrate bulls and bears both.  Then rally into OPEX on the 19th for a higher high of some amount.  Maybe it goes nuts and reaches the 5435.93 FET but again... I lean toward the lower one at 5367.59.

Have a blessed day.

Last Friday was a nothing day as the market just went to sleep and didn't move up or down more then a few points. It's been a week now of "basing" to setup the next big move, which should hit my Fibonacci Extension Target of 5334 on the ES (5296 SPX).  And it actually did in the Sunday futures... finally.

But there is still that one downside FP on the QQQ yet to be hit at 441.00, which will likely be pierced too. I don't know when that's going to happen of course as with the futures made another new higher high in the Sunday night session, and hitting my FET of 5334, I'm really puzzled as to why the FP wasn't hit first.

Possibly they don't plan on hitting the FP until later, and from a much higher price?  Ideally we continue this rally into next Monday, April 8th as it's a turn date. But I cannot rule out that instead we only rally into this Wednesday or Thursday and then pullback Friday and next Monday to bottom there instead (maybe that's where the FP is hit?).

This common theme happened a lot in 2021 as every time the market got close to a turn date it would top prior to it, and drop into it so it became a low and therefore could continue the rally up.

This could happen again, there's no way to know for sure. If so, then I'd look for the next turn date on April 21st and May 2nd after that. Eventually we will top into one of them instead of bottoming, and then we'll see a good correction of 5-10% I think. For now though I'm still sitting in cash and I'll continue waiting on the FP on the QQQ to get hit first, and that's where I'll take my shot again at another squeeze higher.

Along the way I will miss a lot of moves up and down but I have had much better success being patient and waiting for the right time to enter a trade then just trying to always be in one.  If I'm wrong the fake print, then so be it.  I also follow the technicals and we have not reached an oversold enough position on the 2hr or 6hr chart in my opinion to produce another 2-3 day 100-150 point squeeze.  (In fact they are looking close to overbought now.)

To me, this looks like a short as it's hit my FET and we are at the beginning of a new month where it's common (not always) there are "turns" that happen.  I mean that over the past many months I've noticed that around the end of the month (29th, 30th, 31st, or 1st) the market will turn.  It might not be very much, but it does happen a lot.  Possibly we pullback only to the FP from this new high?  Hard to say for sure.  I'm not really interested in shorts right now, so I'll just let this play out.

Have a blessed day.

Good Ol' SkyNet sure loves to play tricks on me as we had an early flush down yesterday on the QQQ to get close to the FP at 441.00, but stopped short about a point and went sideways the rest of the day making a bear flag. I told everyone in the chatroom to look for a late day flush from that bear flag to hit the FP, where I was planning on getting long.

Then out of nowhere we had a squeeze up the last hour instead... what a sneaky move! I did not get long as I trust the FP's and was patiently waiting for it to be hit before I take the next trade. It did this sneaky move before on Monday (from last Friday's FP) when it got close to hitting the higher FP on the QQQ at 443.44, but again failed and rallied up late in the day into the close. Then on Tuesday morning it dropped to hit and pierce the FP and the reversed back up the rest of the day. Tuesday morning also gave us the new upside FP as well, which again failed to hit it that day and instead hit in on Wednesday morning. Here's that chart...

Now we wait on the deeper FP from after the close on Monday to get hit, which is 441.00, and if it's hit today then I'll get long as I'd expect to see us rally hard next week and hopefully hit my FET of 5334 on the ES and 5296 on the SPX... and pierce though them by some amount. I'd love to see 30-50 point overthrow on those targets in the solar eclipse the following Monday, April the 8th as I think that will be a good short if this play out.

I might have already been long if I didn't catch the fake prints but I've been tracking them now since 2010 when I saw my first one, so I know they work. Patience is the key here to be a winner as everything tells me we will hit the lowest one before a strong multi day rally starts.

Obviously the 2 day rally up Wednesday and Thursday is still possible, but I don't see it now because of the failure to hit the downside FP and the move up late in the day yesterday was nice, but not what I would call the start of a 2 day squeeze. So that's likely off the table now, meaning that once we hit the FP we should turn back up and rally hard all of next week. It won't stop at 2 days I don't think. We've spent an entire week of "basing" in what is a bull flag. It will breakout and when it does it will rally for a week or so from this strong base.

In conclusion I still think we hit the downside FP, and probably today (possibly next Monday but I doubt it). Then a 100-150 point rally should follow in all of next week.

Happy a happy Easter. Jesus is my Savior, and yours too.

We now have closed red 3 days in a row... will today be the fourth? I doubt it as we are getting close now to the downside target of 441.00 from the fake print on the QQQ, which again is roughly around 5250 or so on the ES.

If it's hit in the morning session then I think we put in a bottom and turn back up the rest of the day. It might just go up for some wave 1 and pullback for a wave 2 (higher low) into the close, or that pullback happens on Thursday like in the chart below...

That's my thought on what could happen from looking at the technicals, but the other scenario is that we don't hit it today and close green with some small bounce. Then tomorrow we drop to the FP to close out the week negative It could hit into the close Thursday to make everything look very bearish over the 3 day weekend, which if we get oversold (and we should be), I think we'll rally hard next week with everyone short.

Of course if it's hit today then I'll still looking for a long as the FP's have proven to me over the many years of following them that they work. They can still make it very bearish into the end of the week if they do hit the FP today and bottom as we could see the wave 1 up into the close and then tomorrow gets the wave 2 down that comes really close to hitting the low again. A slightly higher low or double bottom basically. That would still get everyone bearish over the weekend I think (chart below).

Now if on the other hand the bottom comes today and we rally hard both today and tomorrow then I'd worry about next week being down... an April Fools drop on the 1st maybe? For that to happen though I'd be looking for 100-150 point rally into the close on Thursday. I think one of these 3 scenario's could happen, but I don't know which one. That rally would need to make a new all time high of course, which should hit and pierce my FET of 5334 on the ES (chart below).

That could happen, and if it does then no one will be short going into a 3 day weekend, which opens the door for a bigger pullback next week. One way or the other a big move is coming. It should up, but I don't know if it starts today after hitting the downside FP and then rallies up into the close tomorrow, or if the rally happens next week from closing down for the week to trap short before a big squeeze.

My lean is toward hitting it today and putting in 2 day squeeze to make a new all time high, which sets up next week for another pullback. But I'll play whatever I'm given and will be focusing my attention on what the technicals say after the rally gets started.

Have a blessed day.