Yesterday we rallied up nicely to bang on down of the 4/9 high, and finally pierced through it afterhours. Today should be a nothing day where we don't go too much further up or down. It should be a day that puts the bears to sleep and keeps the bulls in their longs over the weekend as they wait for the big breakout.

But I don't get the feeling that is coming. I'm thinking we are done on the upside and will rollover next week to start the next leg down to the double bottom and slightly lower low. I posted the following in the chatroom yesterday, and it's still my thoughts...

"The way the market is acting now I think tomorrow will be the top of this rally. Not too much further, but enough to keep the bulls long over the weekend thinking we are going to breakout next week. Maybe we see another 100 points, but not 200-400, which would enter my 5700-5900 zone. They will stop shy of it and keep everyone on the hook looking for that zone to short, but it won't reach it. 2:15 PM"

And... "Today (and the past several weeks) like the pattern going into 10/16/2022. The next day went a hair higher but didn't take out the 10/12/2022 high. The recent high on 4/9 was 5528, so we could repeat that 2022 pattern where we fall shy of taking that high out by a few points, or we do take it out by a few points, but nothing major. 2:21 PM"

Today is the "the day" in my humble opinion for the bulls to breakout nicely and get that squeeze up another 200-300 points. But I just don't think it's going to happen. The market is in a "hope mode" about Trump and the Tariff's but I don't think any deal is coming anytime soon. I think it will be in May, which will think spark the big rally, and the final low. Next week should be very bearish, and even if we get that squeeze it won't last. I'm officially a bear today.

Have a blessed day.

Getting really close now to a breakout squeeze. I don't know if it happen into this Friday or drags out into early next week but once it happens it should get every bear out of the market and all the bulls calling for the bottom to be in... but it's not. There's another move down coming in early May where the low should be tested and take out a little, and it might drag into mid-May, but really should be "mostly" over with by the second week most likely.

Like maybe we bottom on the 5th-7th, then do some quick up's and down's until the 13th possibly, and then we see the really rally start. For comparison of what I'm thinking is possible we can look at the 2/27/2008 date, which could be like the current high now. But I think we breakout and not just double top like back then did whereas that date was the same as 2/4/2008 basically.

I think we take out our current 4/9/2025 high and then we drop like back then from that 2/27/2008 high to the 3/11/2008 low. That might be like May 5th-7th next month? Back then that was a slightly lower low, which chopped at the bottom until 3/18/2008 before it broke out and rallied hard.

That could be like this coming May 13th or so? Now I don't expect our current market to follow what happened afterwards as I don't think the market tops until later this year. I fully expect to see a new high after the coming low, so I'm only pointing out that chop period as possible between the 5th of May up to maybe the 13th or so. Then we squeeze hard into July/August with 655.66 on the SPY as a likely target. For now though, we still have until next Monday or Tuesday, at the latest, for this breakout squeeze to happen I'd love to see it top tomorrow but we might need some kind of trigger (news event) to get it going, and predicting when that happens (or if it happens?) is impossible.

Have a blessed day.

We appear to be starting the final 5 wave move up for the C wave, which will end the larger B wave. Once done we'll start the larger C wave down, which again should be next week. Below is a chart of the SPX showing the wave count.

I still don't know how high we will go but 5700 to 5900 is very possible. It should be high enough to have everyone calling for the low to be in, but it's not. We have another plunge coming next week.

Have a blessed day.

Ok, the down move yesterday was what I was thinking would happen after the 22nd/23d high, but it started early. This means that turn date, which a top of some kind should have happened, has been skipped (or just came early). Next turn window where a top "should" appear is the 29th (give or take a day or so).

Since the last several turn dates have been "front run" by 1-2 days this coming one could also appear early. This opens the door for a high at the end of this week. I spoken about the 586.86 FP on the SPY (about 5900 ES/SPX) several times lately as a possible target high for the coming squeeze before the drop, but the next major resistance zone is around 5700 from a falling trendline, and I really don't think we'll get through it on the first attempt.

I think that zone will be the target high for rally, whenever it comes. It could drag into next week but if we see it this week, like into this Friday, it's a short in my opinion. Now, there's also the "wild card" chance that we could bottom into the end of this week, or into the 29th, like 4700 or so, and then the turn dates will have flipped and that will be a strong buy. I don't think that's going to happen but anything is possible. Currently I still think we have a strong rally coming first, with 5700 as my target, and then the drop.

Have a blessed day.

Time is running out for the bulls as the 22nd/23rd is the turn window where the top should happen. Then we should rollover again with next week being the most bearish. Again, I don't have a clue on how low we could go as while I'm only looking for a double bottom there are others (who are quite good) that are looking for a crash like move, which they have targets from 3000-4100, but anything that big would certainly look and feel like a crash. I'm just looking for 4700-4800, but I'm certainly open to something bigger, which I'm sure there will be some kind of "event" to blame it on. What that is... I don't know?

But... I think there's more upside coming first.  I still think we get some kind of squeeze first to take out the stops on the bears.  Anywhere from 4600-4800 would be the zone I would be looking for as that would get everyone bullish again.  Give me that rally and I'm a bear again.  And it should happen this week.  While the turn window is just that "a window", it's not an exact science, but it should be close.

Next week the 29th/30th are where a bounce can happen for another top of some kind.  I'm thinking we get the squeeze early this week to complete the B wave, then we drop some into this Friday for the wave 1 of the bigger C wave down (or 5th wave?).  Then next week, into the 30th (most likely, due to the importance of closing the month out with some kind of bottoming tail), we get the wave 2 bounce.  Then from the 1st of May, into as late as the 13th, we get the entire drop for the larger C wave (or 5th wave?).

My thoughts are that if we do NOT get the squeeze then we'll drop in a 5th wave, but if we get the rally to 5600-5800 then it's a larger B wave up, not wave 4... therefore the next big drop will be a C wave, not a wave 5.

Next week is going to be super crazy I think as if we get a top this week (the squeeze) then early next week we should see the wave 2 up bounce for the C down, and that rally could fool many into thinking all is good because it might retrace 80-90% of the drop for the wave 1?  If so, not many will see the wave 3 down late next week inside the C wave.  I lean toward the 30th closing out above the current low by some decent amount, like 5200+ roughly, but again... it could reach 5500, 5600 or more?  Then the wave 3 down starts on the 1st of May.

The bottom line here is that: 1: we need a squeeze to 5600-5800, 2: this week is when it should happen, but not a guarantee, 3: a wave 1 down inside a C wave should follow into the end of the week ("if" we get the squeeze?), 4: a bounce for a wave 2 should top into the 29th/30th (again... if we top this week), and 5: the biggest drop  should start around May 1st, which will be the larger C wave.

One wild card is that the two periods where a top could happen (22nd/23rd or 29th/30th) could flip... meaning we could see the high on the second date, not the first.  While I'm lending (actually, just wishing and hoping) to get the high this week, I could be totally off and we just chop this week and hit the upside target zone next week.  Patience is the key here as I'm just not ready to short until I see a final squeeze first to take out the bears.

Last, just something to note... there's an FOMC meeting on May 6th-7th, which could be a bottom?  And the Legatus Jubilee ends on May 2nd, so while this could chop around into as late as the 13th of May I think the lowest low could be between the 2nd to 7th, with just a retest of that low the following week.

Have a blessed day.

The small pullback yesterday was pretty much what I was thinking would happen as the short term charts were quite overbought.  I'm not looking for much today as we close out the week. Next week I'm still thinking we'll get some kind of move up out of this range. I don't know how high, as rallying to the FP on the SPY might be asking too much. We shall see.

If there's no positive news over the weekend (tariff deal?) then I have to think we will not breakout and make a big squeeze to the FP, which will actually be the trickiest move as many people are looking for some higher move up to short at.  Maybe we don't get it?  It's never easy to nail the high, or even the day where the high should happen on.

If today rallies back up to another lower high then the current high of this rally (5500 zone) that might be all we get?  It's really a tough call here as if I take a short today I'll be risking something positive to happen over the weekend to cause a gap up and squeeze.  If I don't take a short, and we get no positive news, then the odds for a move down Monday will be high.  Not sure how to trade it?

Nothing more to add. I'm just waiting patiently as the end of this rally should be either today, or as late as Monday or Tuesday.  I don't have a crystal ball, but if we get a retest of the recent 5500 high by the close today I'll be thinking hard on short it.

Have a very Happy Easter.

A whole lot of nothing yesterday and it's looking like today will be the same. It's not looking good for a breakout from this bull flag forming to happen by tomorrow, so I'm now thinking they will used the 3 day weekend to release some good news to cause a panic move up for a squeeze on Monday, instead of down. The really deep drop should still happen in the week of the 28th, so while I would love to see a final squeeze up tomorrow it's looking less likely. No squeeze = no short, for me at least.

There's the FP on the SPY at 586.86 from several weeks back, and while that seems like a crazy level to hit, it's very possible if some really good news comes out to cause it. Since the "putting on of tariff's" have been blamed for the big drop, any "tariff deal" should cause the opposite. Maybe Trump gets a deal with China over the weekend... who knows what it is? But we have an obvious "cup and handle" pattern that's forming now, so a breakout could easily take us up to the FP on the SPY, and that's roughly 5900 or so. We'll see.

Have a blessed day.

Chop yesterday as expected. I expect more of the same the rest of this week as again, it's a holiday week with light volume, so "if" all goes as planned we'll grind up into a Thursday high to make everyone feel like the bottom is in, but it's not. There's a revisit of the low coming and the week that it should be the worst is the week of the 28th, but it should start next week.

Have a blessed day.

Nothing has changed from Friday. We are still on schedule to go higher into this Thursday for so kind of top that ideally reaches the 5800 zone where the top of the B wave wave around 3/25 before the plunge into 4/6. I'd love to see it taken out to hit the stops on the bears short now, but there really doesn't seem to be that many bears from the way people are talking on social media and the news.

Most think the low is in, which of course isn't what the bulls want to see and hear if they want new highs. I'm not in that camp that thinks the lows are in and it's off to 6500+, as I still see "at least" a retest of the current low, if not a lower low? Below is the wave count of my thoughts that I posted on X on Friday.

My focus is on "time", not price, so once the time runs out for the bulls we should rollover again. Next Monday the 21st is a bearish day, and the week of the 28th (meaning all the way to Friday, May 2nd if necessary?). This is how I've laid out the wave count and the projected dates for "turns", which might be off a day or so but they should be close. I don't think this Thursday will be off as it should be light volume in front of the 3 day weekend for Easter, and that usually favors the bulls.

So a grind up into that day "should" (ideally) be the best day for a short, which I"d look to hold through any bounce into the end of next week, which is likely but I don't know how much. I just want to be positioned for the 28th-2nd where the most bearish period is at. As for today I don't have much opinion. Again, my focus is on this Thursday for the best short.

Have a blessed day.

A little deeper pullback yesterday then I would have liked to seen but still no major harm done for the overall picture that still points up into mid-late next week (possibly the 21st/22nd, but I doubt it). There's a falling trendline from the all time highs to the 3/25 high, which is pointing to 5550-5600 on the SPX (depends on when it hits), and that's about 5600-5650 on the ES.

If this plays out like this there will be an obvious 5 wave move up into that trendline, and that would suggest the lows are in and those 5 waves are a larger wave 1, then the drop into the end of the month would just be wave 2, which should not take out the low... but it can get really close.

It's all just a guess at this point as many others think the drop from the current high to the current low is a larger degree A wave, and we are in B wave now, which means we could see 4100 or even 3300 in a C wave happen. I'm not in that camp but when I take a short I'll just let it go to wherever it wants to go to. Ok, that's all I have for now. Have a great weekend.

Also, I'll be gone the first half of Monday but will try to drop in the chatroom in the afternoon.

Have a blessed day.

LOL... we got the rally was looking for into next week but all in one day! It was a massive short squeeze and the perfect bull trap. I still expect to see the best short to appear next week, like on Thursday right before the 3 day weekend. Now we might put in the high for this rally this week, but pullback small early next week, and go up for a slightly lower high at the end of next week.

That would be ideal as basically we'd have the low put in already on Monday, and the rally up in play now will "in the end" turn out to be a wave 1 up of the last huge move up to 6500+, which is some large degree wave 5, and the pullback into the end of this month would be the wave 2 down. It will fool everyone as it won't make a lower low but instead make a slightly higher low.

So, as we go into next week everyone should be super bullish, and if we see Jim Cramer come out and say the low is in and we are off to new highs you know the top for the rally is near. Too me, this is the ideal setup as I really didn't want to see the 483 FP broken on the downside from last year as it did look very important and it's not looking likely to break on the next drop. I think we stop in the low 5000's and it will be a perfect retest of the breakout area from yesterday. There's also a "possible" FP on the SPY at 500.40 from yesterday, which is that breakout level.

On another note, I used too follow a guy named Reinhardt, who passed away several years ago. Old time followers of this blog will remember that he called the 2008 crash months in advance. He did it based on following what the elite (I call them the satanists) would due around certain event. He pinpointed the Catholic organization called Legatus (Legatus.org), and figured out that they were going to crash the market at a certain Pilgrimage, and they did the same thing this April.

The most important one is the "Jubilee" one, where in the Bible all debts are forgiven during the Jubilee, but for these evil people they use it to crash the market, which of course they cash out at the top and buy the bottom. The next Jubilee Pilgrimage is this coming April 27th to May 2nd (https://legatus.org/events), and it's VERY LIKELY the low in the market will be in that period.

Whether or not it's a higher low like I think or some crazy flush out drop to a new lower low is unknown, but the time area will be right into those dates. There's a few folks out there looking for 4100, but I'm not that person. I'm looking for 5000, but the target to me isn't as important as the "when" part. It should be right into this pilgrimage in my opinion. I'm just going to wait patently until next week as I've seen the pattern many many times in the past. "They" love to use long weekends to make big turns in the market. They will do it after Easter.

Have a blessed day.

We hit the falling trendline of resistance again yesterday and pulled back. It still looks like the market is going to continue these up's and down's until next week, which the 18th is Good Friday, so the market will be closed. Therefore I'd look for the high on Thursday, and we'll probably calm down on the wild swings going into that period to put the bears to sleep and get the bulls excited looking for a big breakout with the lows being in. But that 3 day weekend is where I expect something negative to come out and cause another drop the following week.

I seen today talks about something "Big" that was found from the DOGE team, but they haven't released it yet. I think they will do it Easter Weekend, and I get the feeling it's going to cause a major shake up in politics and in the market. How low will it go? I have no idea, but "time" is more important then price, so the 23rd will be important and so will around May 2nd. I'm still open to see another lower low on the 23rd (to make a "Head") and then a higher low (a "Right Shoulder") around May 2nd. From there we should finish the bearish period and start the big rally up into summer for a massive blow off top rally.

Have a blessed day.

Crazy squeeze up yesterday morning that reversed within minutes. It came close to hit my falling white trendline but couldn't hold and closed the day out in the middle between it and the low. This entire week could be filled with wild swings up and down, and next week we could see it calm down a little as again, it's OPEX and the market tends to be bullish that week so that puts expire worthless. The week after OPEX is when the market should fall again, and it might last right into the end of the month (my May 2nd date roughly). Again, I don't know if it's going to make a lower low or higher low as we did hit the 483 FP on the SPY in the futures, so that's finished as far as I'm concerned. But maybe the market wants to hit it again, but in regular hours... hence my thoughts from yesterdays post about a triple bottom as possible. I'm not doing anything right now and just waiting until next week as every time I've tried to go long I get chewed up, so I'm not even thinking about it until the end of this month.

Have a blessed day.

As you can probably figure out by my last few posts I'm not happy that I missed the drop. I was looking for higher prices and into Friday where the turn window was at, but it topped early on me, just like when it bottomed late on me in the past when my turn window was 3/3 to 3/6, but it bottomed on 3/13... quite frustrating.

Turn dates aren't perfect but they still help. Other turn dates prior to those were spot on with a hit within a day or so. I guess this recent April 2nd top is a hit too as it was only 2 days off. It was just me wanting a higher price on the 4th to get the best short entry.

The next turn date is April 23rd, but the one I'm most interested in will be the early May one, which is roughly the 2nd or so. I think we will see the 2022 prior high of 4818 on the SPX get hit and pierced (4808 ES) before any low is put in, and I think we'll see it either around the 23rd or May 2nd. Possibly we do a double bottom? Or a higher low or lower low between the dates?

The weekly chart is quite oversold now, so a massive move back up is coming, but I don't see it until May. If we put in the low around the 23rd then I'd think the first move up will be a wave 1 of some kind, then the early May higher low will be the wave 2 down.

After that we will rally hard up into August where a new all time high (and beyond) should happen. The upside FP I have on the SPY is at 655.66 (nice 666 code huh... LOL). The current all time high is 6166.50 on the ES, another ritual of course. If we hit the one on the SPY the SPX and ES won't have the code in them, which makes it less obvious to everyone that see's the ES one... but it will still fulfill the satanists rituals (I guess?).

Doesn't matter to me but it will be a target of interest when we reach August. As for the short term, we clearly were (are still?) in a wave 3 of C down last week, so the wave 4 bounce will likely happen this week. Then the wave 5 down will probably be into the 23rd or so. That's (in my opinion) the low I'll be interested in taking a long at... but the best long should be the low into around May 2nd, which I think will be a higher low. We shall see.

Side-note: The 483 (dual) FP's on the SPY from last year was hit in the futures Sunday night.

What does this mean?  I don't but possibly we don't get any new lower low into the 23rd or the 2nd?  Maybe it turns out to be a triple bottom?  I'm just focused on getting prepared for the best long of the year, which should be around the May 2nd date.  Whatever the price level the market is at when the date comes is not something I care about.

Have a blessed day.

Well, no bounce yesterday so it seems the bullish period ended early. I really thought it would last into today but it clearly ended on Wednesday. From here forward we should continue down (with bounces at some point of course) into the 23rd/24th where some kind of low is likely but the final low should be around May 2nd/3rd. If you missed the short (I did) there's not much to do at this point.

Have a great weekend.

WOW! The futures just fell off the cliff after the close yesterday and took out the 3/14 low. It clearly didn't like the tariff's but technically the bullish period isn't over until this Friday or next Monday so while the dump in the futures is quite large it's early and could get reversed in the next few days. Clearly I'm not short as I didn't see this coming. I'm just patiently waiting to see what happens in the next day or so.

Have a blessed day.

We got some chop yesterday, which I think finished the wave 2 down inside a 5 wave move up to complete a C inside a larger B wave. We then started the wave 3 up (I think?) into the close, which seems to be subdividing into 5 even smaller waves.

This market is setup now for a big squeeze and all that it needs is some trigger to get it going... meaning some kind of good news. It could be anything really, from ADP Employment Report this morning before the open, the Factory Orders at 10pm or EIA Petroleum Status Report at 10:30. Or something positive about the Tariffs?

Maybe it happens Thursday from the Jobless Claims, or NFP Report (Employment Situation) on Friday? There's no way to guess the news event but the technicals are bullish into this Friday (possibly carrying into Monday), and so is the cycles, which I find the most accurate. Next week though is bearish again and it lasts into early May, so "if" this market is planning on having a big drop (and I think it is) we should see the 3/25 highs taken out beforehand.

Bears will have stops right above that zone and they need to be taken out before the big drop. Nothing to do but hang tight right now and get ready to short after this Friday and those bears are squeezed.

Have a blessed day.

The market picked option 4 yesterday when I only had 3 options for the path it should take... LOL! The SPX made a new lower low, which was the Wild Card Scenario, and the ES made a higher low, which doesn't look like the Bullish or Bearish Scenario but a mix between them.

If I had to pick one I'd say it was the Bullish one as the early low happen (but not a lower low in the ES), then we rallied until around the 1pm period (EST) before we pulled back small for about 30-45 minutes. Then up into the close afterwards, and that's roughly what I wrote on the Bullish Wave Count from yesterday.

There's still big resistance in the 5700-5720 ES zone (I wrote on the chart 5720-5760, but it's lower I think), which is where the market will likely pullback at, or go sideways. If we can get there today and go sideways we could push through it Wednesday and Friday. It's hard to know what the price will be but the time will run out for the bulls this Friday (possibly into next Monday). After the clock expires for the rally the price will be whatever it will be, and the next move down next week should take out the lows.

We might see something similar to the 5/20/22 low, which could be equal to yesterday. We then rally hard into this Friday/Monday and start down next week. Back then it chopped from 5/27/22 until 6/8/22, and then fell off a cliff hard into a 6/16/22 low. That could be the early May low, and while patterns repeat over and over they never repeat exactly.

Possibly the chop period back then happens from April 23rd/24th until May 2nd? And the fast drop period from back then happens first... like it starts next week and ends into the 23rd/24th? The point here is that after this Friday the cycles are bearish again, and the expected low periods are the 23rd/24th and early May. As for that prior pattern you'll notice that the high it rallied into on 5/27/22 took out the prior high on 5/17/22. That would be similar to the recent 3/25/25 high getting taken out if we hit the FP on the SPY into this Friday.

Patterns rhyme all the time, and this would not shock me to see it play out. Back then that sideways chop before the last big drop was likely done to suck in a ton of bulls thinking the low was in. But currently everyone is super bearish so that might not be needed? Instead all that is required is the squeeze to the FP to get rid of the bears.

Then another big drop can start next week without anyone short... meaning they don't have to get a ton of bulls long but just need to get the bears squeezed out. I don't know if it's going to play out that or not but it's something to keep in the back of your mind when next week gets here.

If it repeats the same pattern as back then we'll see all of next week have big up's and down's repeatedly before it falls off a cliff. From a "Wave Count" point of view that would be a series of wave 1's down and 2's up in various degree's until a wave 3 of 3 of 5 sets up for that last big drop.

Have a blessed day.

The market broken down Friday and went deeper then I expected. I was gone all day so I couldn't post, and I was expecting more of a pullback, but not that deep. This has likely changed the wave count a little but that's not known for certain just yet, so I'll cover both scenario's. Let's go over the more bullish counts first. With it we had an ABC up from the from the 3/13 low that ended the A wave with the 3/25 high of 5835, which had a smaller A, B and C inside it. Normally A waves have 5 waves inside them but this one only had 3... which then means the drop from that low into Friday was a B, and that leaves a C wave up still left, which should go to the 586.86 FP on the SPY (roughly 5900 ES). Below is that chart...

The Bullish Wave Count...

Next is the bearish case. This is where the same ABC up happened into the 5835 top, but that ends the ABC as it doesn't subdivide in this case but finish the B wave right there. Whereas in the bullish case that same B wave hasn't ended as there's still a C sub-wave still to come this week (the rally to the FP), and then the B wave ends and the C wave down starts. But in this bearish case the C wave down has already started and we did the wave 3 inside that C on Friday, leaving the 4 and 5 yet to complete (today probably).

In this case we'd still see a rally this week but it will be a lower high. Basically, the rally would get stopped in the 5720-5760 zone (roughly). In this case I think we'd see an ABC up into this Friday to complete this move.

For example... if we finish the wave 4 and 5 down today, which completes the wave 1 down inside wave C, we could see a strong A wave up on Tuesday (into early Wednesday), then pullback (half?) on Wednesday (into Thursday) for the B wave, and finally a C wave up into the close on Friday to end the wave 2 up. Then next week for the nasty wave 3 inside C down, and that wave will unfold in 5 waves too, then a 4 bounce and a 5 down to finish the C, which will end it all from the all time high on 2/19... and that could be right into the 23rd/24th of April. Here's that chart...

The Bearish Wave Count...

If Friday would have held the 5700 zone of support and NOT taken the 5651 low on 3/21 I'd say odds are good that we'd see the C wave up to the FP on the SPY to complete the B wave (again, into this Friday), and then we'd start the C wave down. But that's looking less likely to play out now (unless the wild card scenario happens).

In fact, the first rally up (Tuesday/Wednesday) will run into resistance around that 3/21 low (and 3/18 low). That could be the A wave inside a wave 2 up (again, the bearish case), and the pullback will get the bears fully loaded but it should not take out the expected low put in Monday, which will be a B wave.

Then a C wave up into this Friday to complete the wave 2 should take out those double bottoms and reach the 5720-5760 zone. That will make everyone all bulled up again looking for a breakout next week. But if this wave count is right next week will be a blood bath as it will be a wave 3 inside a C wave down. For today, I'm looking for the wave 4 bounce and wave 5 down to complete the wave 1 inside C down (for this scenario).

The Wild Card Scenario...

Remember that I write my posts for the next trading day after the close of the current day (and over the weekend for Monday posts), so I never know how the open is going to be.  ONLY the feature image is done the morning of the current trading day.

This wild card move would be the most bullish as it get the low put in now so it's done, finished, kaput.  It won't make a lower low into the April 23rd/24th period but a higher one.  I personally would love to see it as it's the easiest to trade I think.  Why?  Because if we flush out now we get all the bulls out and nothing be bears left, who will short the entire move up, which should squeeze all the way to the FP on the SPY of 486.86 into this Friday (possibly Monday the 7th).

Then the move down into the 23rd/24th will be hard to trade as there will be a ton of new bears looking for the C wave to 4900 (or wherever).  So it will be a choppy one with many fast drops and fast squeezes back up to shake out both sides.  It will be an ABC move of course, and probably a larger degree wave 2, whereas the rally to the 486.86 FP will be the wave 1 up.

This is my favorite scenario.  Will it play out?  Only time will time.  Due note that in both the bullish and bearish wave counts the low is not taken out now.  By not doing it now it suggests it will happen in late April.  But if we get the flush out today then I think the lows will be in and we won't see 4900 or any other crazy target until late this year during the expected crash.

Keep in the common pattern for the market to revisit a prior years' high whenever it's a bearish year.  I think we'll see the 4808 high from 2022 hit this year in the fall.  If we top at 6500+ that's going to be one very large drop, but again, it's a very common pattern to this this happen.  And, by the time we get to August I think the 200 week SMA on the Weekly chart will (ironically) be around that level.  It's at 4684.14 today.

Have a blessed day.

No change from yesterdays post. I'm still looking for some kind of decline into Monday, which should be an ABC pattern, and once it's done it will complete wave 2, inside C up. Then from that low into next Friday we should see a face ripper for wave's 3, 4, and 5 to complete that C wave and end the larger B wave from the lows a week ago.

This again is baring any unforeseen news event coming out that could cause a much bigger drop that would take out the lows and run for 5300 or lower. I give that low odds though as this rally from that low does not look like a wave 4 with that big drop being a wave 5 down. This rally looks just like a B wave should look, so the C wave down should certainly last longer in time then just a couple of days as the A wave down from the all time high took a month to play out.

In my opinion, the C wave down will start after April 4th (or 7th) and go deeper then just 5300, like 5000 or even 4900. It depends on how high we rally with the B wave, and right now the only thing I have for a target is the FP on the SPY of 586.86, which is roughly 5890 on the SPX and 5944 on the ES. Naturally the fake prints are always just targets that will be hit at some point in time. They commonly pierce through by some amount too, but he important thing to focus on is not the target but the time, as the high should happen on the 4th or 7th. If the FP is hit and pierced on that date then it's likely the end of the rally up and time for the C wave down to start. I won't be around tomorrow, so no post.

Have a great weekend.