The next cycle low is next week on Thursday the 24th, so if we continue the choppy mess of small up's and down's into that date and don't really go anywhere I'd then expect that to end the pullback and start the rally up into August to run to the 655.66 FP on the SPY. From there we should see a 7-8% pullback, but again, I'm not positive on where we are at in the comparison of the 2010/11 pattern.

We might be in the early part of the 7-8% pullback now? If so, then we should hit the 588.79 FP on the SPY into the 24th, which will fulfill the 7-8% pullback. Then we rally hard the rest of July and into August for the 655.66 FP. It would then put in a nice bottoming tail candle on the monthly chart as that low would be retraced hard by the end of July, which would keep the market bullish on the bigger charts.

Of course if that pullback doesn't happen, and we just hold the 6200 lows (roughly) then the market is even more bullish then I thought it was. We'll have to just let it unfold but once the 24th (roughly) is here I'll be looking for a strong rally up to follow.

Have an blessed day.

The CPI yesterday did not cause some big drop, but we did see a small move down, which still looks like chop when you zoom out. Possibly it's the start of an ABC pattern similar to the 1/18/11 to 1/28/11 pattern? It won't repeat exactly of course but since I have the upside FP of 655.66 on the SPY I know where the most important high will be at.

Between now and then we could continue to chop up and down for weeks until that final push to hit it happens. I don't know the "when" part but I still think it's early in August. For the short term, we could drift a little low to get the short term charts oversold and support below won't be damaged unless we break the recent lows around 6240, if that breaks we could drop to the low 6100's pretty fast.

I don't think it's going to happen, but anything is possible I guess. I've tried many times in the past several weeks to short this market but it never broke down and gave me the 7-8% pullback. So I've come to conclusion that it probably won't happen until we reach the upside FP on the SPY. So I'm just going to patiently wait for it to happen.

The Alternative Scenario...

If I'm wrong, on where we are currently when compared to the 2010/11 pattern, then we a little past the 2/18/11 high and starting the 7-8% pullback into a low like the 3/14/11 low.  That decline was an ABC and of course we would be in the A part now.  There was a choppy B wave from 2/14/11 to 3/4/11 back then before the C down happened.

The whole move back then was about 28 days, and if we are running about 3 times as fast now we could do it all now in 8-9 days.  But that's just a guess as we don't have to continue to repeat everything at 3 times the speed.  Patterns can repeat closer and it could take 28 days this time around too.

If we are in this spot instead of the 1/18/11 to 1/31/11 area then we might bottom for the C wave into the end July.  We'll have to just watch next week to see how the rally back up plays out.  If it stalls out and doesn't make a new all time high again, I'd have to start thinking we are indeed further along in the pattern and in this alternative scenario instead of the 1/18/11-1/31/11 period.

Have an blessed day.

So far, so good. We are still in a chop mode. This morning we see the futures grind higher.  We could see a 2% or so pullback anytime (100 or so points), and maybe that happens today after the CPI, who knows? But I still don't see much happening this week as it's OPEX and most likely it will remain in a tight range.

As I said in the prior post we appear to be tracking out the 2011/11 pattern again, but 3 times faster.  I'm not positive about where we are in that pattern but I think we are around the high going into 1/20/11, which was followed by an ABC sideways (tight range) pullback into around 1/31/11.  And that was followed by a rally up into the 2/18/11 high before a 7-8% pullback, which would be equal to roughly topping between August 5th-10th I'd estimate.

We could be going into the 1/31/11 top now and the 7-8% pullback is coming later this week and next, but I don't think that's the case.  I still lean toward that pullback happening in August, so we'll see.

I don't have anything else to add so I'll end it here with a short post.

Have an blessed day.

Saturday, July 12th 2025

Last Friday was very disappointing as the market did not do that final push to 6350-6370 ES to get an "exhaustion" move that could be shorted. Instead they pulled back small to control the move and not allow a deeper move back down. Then they grinded back up the rest of the day to erase about half the decline.

This is very frustrating as the market is refusing to do the blow off to allow a decent pullback (200+ points), and it's making it impossible to trade. Ultimately we will see the 655.66 FP on the SPY and that high (a very ritual number) will cause a strong pullback from it. Whether or not it a crash like move is unknown, as it depends on when it hits.

The perfect scenario is to hit it on a ritual date, like September 18th, 2025 (999). Between now then it's looking like the market isn't going to give the bears much on the downside. We could still see the 588.79 FP on the SPY at some point (August?) but I think they will keep this market in a tight range until the upside FP is hit. Then we'll see a crash like drop to fill the 2 gap's on the ES at 5715 and 5339, and that should happen into October.

Short term though we are very overbought and a pullback of few hundred point is still likely to happen soon. It might be a 1-2 day event but it's still likely to happen before the blow off into September. For today though I don't have much to add.

Oh... NVDA, I forgot to add that it failed to drop like a rock Friday too. I was hoping that the ritual 166.66 early high would hold and that we'd see a 10%+ fast 1-2 day collapse move but it was stopped from happening as that high was taken out. It will at some point have a surprise drop that very few catch. For now though I've moved on and will focus on the market.

Sunday, July 13th 2025

So I've taken some time to go back into the past to see if there's any pattern that looks similar to today's market, and I found one.  It's the 2010-2011 period, which I'm posting below in a chart.

Nothing is an exact match of course but this one is close.  It unfolded in 15 months and I'm expecting today's market to unfold in about 5 months, so we are running 3 times faster now.  But it all aligns up nicely with a crash like move this coming September to October.

As for the short term, I don't think there will be any decent trade (up or down) until we get into the first (second?) week of August.  Then we could see a similar to the 2/18/11 top to the 3/17/11 pullback.  Of course it should be 3 times as fast if we are in that pattern.  It was a 7-8% pullback so if we hit the FP of 655.66 on the SPY then the pullback would be around 606 roughly, which I'd guess will be around 6100 on the ES.

Have an blessed day.

We had a pullback after hours yesterday, but I don't' think it will hold. I think it gets retraced back up today as we are still missing one more higher high. After that we should see a sharp drop that last 1-2 days before another move back up later next week. The bigger drop isn't here yet but we should start seeing some one day wonder drops as the bulls get weakened. Nothing more to add, so I'll end this update here.

Have a great weekend.

The failure yesterday for the market to lose support after the gap up was fully retraced back down in the first hour tells me we have likely not topped yet. I now see the first ABC down from the 6333 high on 7/3 to the 6246 low on 7/7 as (possibly?) completing some smaller degree wave 4, and NOT just an A wave of a bigger ABC down that would pullback to 6200 or so.

I just feel that if that was going to happen yesterday was the day to start it. That gap up and squeeze would have been (should have been) the B wave and the C wave down would follow. It's not as likely to happen now as the momentum is gone. That early pop and drop should have been used to break support around 6275 or so, but it held and the rest of the day we saw the market grind higher into the close.

It's still possible I guess for that to play out, as the quick early pullback might still be the wave 1 down inside the C wave, and the retrace back up to within a hair of a new high could be the wave 2... and if so, the wave 3 down might happen today (and wave 4 and 5 to end the C wave).

But it's not looking like it wants to break support the way it acts. If it does, I'd ONLY look for a slightly lower low then the 6246 low on 7/7 (my 6200 original target), and it should be short lived. But if it doesn't happen I have to think we are already in a wave 5 up to 6350-6370, and that it should be hit some time next week (probably before the CPI on 7/15).

That suggests a top next Monday possibly. There's not any real difference with the end result for topping early next week for either wave count. If we do the C wave down today to 6200 or so then the ABC will be from 7/3 to 7/10 instead of 7/3 to 7/7, with the shorter one just having that one ABC move inside it and a higher low of 6246, with the longer ABC down have a lower low and it would have an ABC (A), ABC (B), and ABC (C) to complete it.

Both will be followed by a rally up into early next week. Either one could make a higher high or lower high, and then we should get a much deeper pullback afterwards into the rest of next week and the week afterward. If the market would have sold off this week then we would see a strong rally next week so all the "puts" will expire since it's the monthly OPEX week.

But since it's looking more likely that this will will hold this upper range it's probably going to close at a high area, and that means OPEX will need to kill all the "calls" so they expire worthless. That means we should pullback later next week but go into it at a high. For today, I don't think we pullback much as I think yesterday base zone around 6275 will still hold, and therefore the odds of breaking it for a move to 6200 seem low.

Regardless of where it pulls back to we should continue holding this zone so that one last move up to 6350-6370 can be made early next week. Then we get a nice pullback.

Have an blessed day.

A whole lot of nothing yesterday. I have zero interest in going long and I'm just waiting to go short. I had a short on from last week but closed it out Monday at a breakeven as I didn't get the big gap down I was looking for. I'm still bearish and plan to re-short soon but there still should be one more move up.

I think it will be a "lower high" for the B wave I've talked about in yesterdays post, but I also am open to a slightly higher high. There's not much left in this market on the upside but it seems to be waiting on a reason to drop hard. It's close though... possibly today or Thursday? Nothing more to add as I covered in Tuesday post.

Have an blessed day.

We did pullback some yesterday, but it's far from any thing really being bearish. I think we saw an A wave down and the move up from the late day low yesterday was the start of the B wave. If it can finish today we could see a C wave down tomorrow to end this part of the correction.

Call the entire ABC just the first part of the pullback as after it's done we should rally up into mid-late next week as it's OPEX and we typically see moves up into that week if the prior week was a down one.

The question will be... will that move up be a new higher high or a lower high? If it's a lower high we could (should) see another drop into around the last week of July for what should be labeled as a bigger C wave with the current ABC down being the bigger A wave and the move up into OPEX being the bigger B wave. I'm thinking this is what is going to play out and that we'll see the 588.79 FP on the SPY get hit during that C wave and NOT during this current ABC down to make the A wave.

Ok, for today I"d like to see a move up to a possible FP on the SPY of 623.31 from yesterday. If we can see it hit I think we'll finish the B wave and start the C wave down into a low tomorrow or Thursday. How low I don't know? Maybe 6100-6150 on the SPX (40 or so points higher on the ES). The obvious target of big support is from the 6/16 prior high, which is 6109 on the ES, but the 20 day SMA is at 6134, so "in that zone" would be the most likely spot to end the C wave inside a (likely) larger A wave down.

Have an blessed day.

Last Friday we saw a nice rally all day long but it sold off after the close. It's still unclear on whether or not the high for that move is in or not as we are bouncing back up some Sunday night in the futures as I write this post. I had hoped to see the futures down big but that's not the case. And there's a lot of others calling for a pullback too out there, and if we get too many traders all looking for the same thing the market will fool them. Will it be "No Pullback" or a "Much Deeper Pullback" is the question. I don't really have anything more to add, so we'll just have to see how this plays out.

Have an blessed day.

The market grind-ed higher yesterday, which is wonderful in my opinion as it allows a better short entry over this 3 day weekend. The BIG resistance overhead is the 6350 zone on the ES, and man ol' man would I love to see it hit into the close day (close is at 1pm, not 4pm EST).  It would take out every last bear I think and the market will be ripe for a surprise news event over the 3 day holiday so we can open up with a nice gap down.

It's the perfect setup for a little mini-flash crash in 3-4 days to hit the FP on the SPY of 588.79, and if we drop that fast and hard all the bears will have missed it and will pile up short on the next move up.

Of course that will just be tons of fuel to squeeze them hard into the 655.66 FP on the SPY, but I don't think it hit's it until September 18th. However, the first move up on the market after the low (if we get it?) should come right back up to the current highs very quickly. Then we should see some up's and down's for a month or more to put the bears to sleep again and get the bulls fully loaded up long.

But if I'm right the expected range of say 6200-6400, which will build a huge bull flag, won't do a massive breakout of a 1000+ point run as many will expect. It should only go up another 200 or so point until that FP on the SPY is hit. Call it 6600+ on the ES, and after it's hit that should be all she wrote for the bulls.

Again, I'm only speculating on the September 18th date, but I have strong reasons to think that's when the FP will be hit. Anyway, for day, root for another squeeze up to 6350 so we can get a big surprise gap down on Monday.

Have a great 4th of July weekend.

We had a tiny pullback yesterday but overall it was just a flat day. NVDA pulled back put not as much as I would have liked to see, so I'm out of my shorts on it. It will likely still drop lower but I'm more interested in catching the drop in the ES/SPX, which right now appears to be setting up for AFTER the 4th of July weekend. The target is still the 588.79 FP on the SPY, which is a little over 5900 on the ES basically. If all goes as I think it will the drop will be over with in 3-4 days, so next Thursday should be the low I'd think. The faster and scarier it happens the fast the squeeze back up should be as if you want to catch both moves you want it fast as they are more powerful. As for today and tomorrow, the ideal move is for the market to go mostly sideways to stay in the tight range and make a bull flag.

Have an blessed day.

The market held firm yesterday as they close out the month for window dressing. NVDA didn't hit the FP of 160.22, but it got really close in the premarket. It may or may not hit it before it rolls over but when it does finally lose support the drop will be fast and end in 2-3 days.

I'm not sure about the rest of the market as it seems to need a catalyst to breakdown, and its' focus is on Trumps Bill that hasn't yet passed.  How will it play out is the mystery?  Most likely we'll see it fail to pass at first, then we get the fast drop. Then they come back later and pass it, and the big squeeze happens. Is this going to play out before the July 4th holiday weekend or afterwards is the question I can't answer. If they fail it beforehand we could bottom into this Thursday, and then use the long weekend to get it passed and gap up next Monday for the squeeze.

Or, they hold the market sideways into this Thursday, fail it over the weekend, which causes the gap down Monday, and that bottoms into next Thursday/Friday. Then they pass it over that weekend and gap up for the squeeze the following week of the 14th. Lot's of unknowns but that's how I see it all playing out.

Have an blessed day.

So over the weekend I had some time to think about what would screw the most traders. A lot of other sites are looking for roughly the 5700 zone for the coming pullback, which most agree is a wave 4 of some degree. It's a logical pullback area as it's to the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement zone. But we have started the bullish period from both Seasonality and Cycles work... meaning I don't think we will get that deep.

The Medium Wave 2 pullback was about 50% of Medium Wave 1 up, but if the recent FP's are real "fake prints", and I think they are, we will only pullback to around the 23.6% zone. Ironically that's where the 588.79 FP on the SPY would be at, and if we do this into the 2nd week of July I think that's all the bears are going to see. After that I think we start a 5 wave advance for the final 5th wave up, and I still think it tops on September 18th, 2025 at 655.66 on the SPY. Below is a chart of it...

There are 2 levels below on the ES Futures that are "gap fills", and everyone see's them. Yes, it's rare to get them on the futures (common on the SPX cash), so they WILL be filled at some point... but when? I suspect they will not be filled until the big drop into October and for now we won't even get close to them. The nearest one is at 5715.25 from 5/9/25, and it's a little more then a 38.2% pullback (if we reach 6350 this week), but for all practical purposes we can just call it the 38.2% pullback zone.

It's a big magnet for the market, and again, EVERYONE see's it. So will it be that obvious that the market is just going to pullback to that perfect level to allow the bears a nice profitable correction, and the bulls a great entry long? I've never seen it that easy, and the FP's do NOT suggest that will happen.

The second, and lower "gap fill" is at 5339.25 from 4/22/25, and I don't think many traders are expecting it to be reached during the coming correction, so we can just throw that out the window in my opinion as the odds are super low that we'll see it reached this month or next. That will be filled during the September to October decline.

And I wouldn't be surprised if that's not the low for that correction. If we reach around 6600 into September 18th a drop to 5300 is quite a big drop, so there's no reason that it MUST take out the 4832 low. I'm not saying that it won't, as anything is possible. But if we are going to have another massive blow off rally into the first quarter of 2026 to 7000, 8000, who knows... we probably will just make a higher low then the April 7th, 2025 bottom. We'll re-evaluate once we get into October but right now I don't think it gets taken out.

For today, I'd like to see the FP on NVDA hit (160.22) which will be a great short for it (expected drop into 140-145 in a few days) and a likely top for the rest of the market too, like 618+ on the SPY and 6250+ on the ES. If we get it, we should see a fast drop to the 600.14 FP on the SPY into this Thursday for Small Wave A inside Medium Wave 4. Then bounce for Small Wave B into around the 8th of July, followed by one more drop to the 588.79 FP on the SPY for the Small Wave C... and I think that ends by the 11th. That should wake up the bears and put in the low for Medium Wave 4 down.

The Alternative...

Everything would be the same here in this alternative scenario as far as the turn periods goes.  We'd still pullback this week for an A wave, then do a quick bounce next Monday/Tuesday for a B wave.  The difference here in this case is that the C wave down (which should still end by the 11th) will be a much deeper one.  Basically one that feels like a mini flash crash or something.  It could drop to fill the first gap on the ES, or even to the second and much lower gap.

I don't think that's going to happen but we should just be open to something crazy to get maximum fear back in the market, which will be used as rocket fuel to get the market to rally up to the final high of 655.66 on the SPY into September 18th.  Maybe they just hit the first (higher gap fill) at 5715.25 pm the ES this time around and save the lower gap fill for the drop into October?  Again, I don't think this is going to happen but I'll just let the market guide me.

Lastly...

We need to pay close attention to the expected B wave up from this Thursdays low for the A wave.  If it rallies too high we could see the drop for the C down get pushed out in time for another week.  It won't be easy to figure out and it will be based on what (and where) the A wave down does and goes too.  I'm only looking for that 600.14 SPY level as that's a FP and will be support.

My worry is that the A down "might" wake up too many bears if it goes fast enough.  That would then drag out the B up in "time", so I'd prefer this coming A down to be a slow and steady one.  Then the B up I'd like to see a fast 1-2 day squeeze that almost makes a new high again.  If that happens it will shake out any of the bears that go short this week.

But if it doesn't move up fast enough, and lingers down around the low 6000's, then I think that will be a bear trap.  Meaning the market is just going to chop around for awhile to get more bears to load up looking for the C wave down.  If that happens it can drag out into OPEX in July and make another new higher high to shake out those bears.

Meaning that we might see 6260-6300 on the ES this week, down to 6000 into this Thursday, and then chop with an upward bias to 6300-6350 into OPEX.  Then we get that C wave down... which won't be a C wave if we make a higher high, but it will act as one and drop hard and fast to the 588.79 FP on the SPY the following 4-5 days.

Personally, I give it low odds that we'll see a long drawn out B wave up that could last into OPEX.  There is high odds that the B wave will be fast and end next Monday/Tuesday and we see the C wave down into the end of next week.

Either way though, the bottom line here is that the only move I'm interested in trading is shorting the A wave down, skipping the B wave up, and waiting patiently to see if I can figure out where and when the B wave tops so I can short the C wave.  Whether that is a short next Monday/Tuesday, or the week of OPEX is unknown right now... but again, odds favor next week.

Have an blessed day.

As get ready for a new month the market is likely to continue this grind higher into the holiday next week where it should put in a high on July 3rd I think. It will keep everyone long over the 4th of July weekend where the following week we should see the market rollover and start the much needed pullback. Not much to do until then I think. Maybe we will see NVDA hit its' FP of 160.22 at the same time?

I posted the below chart on X yesterday, so I'm adding it again here.  It's the big picture wave count.

Keep in mind though that the 6350 level is just a "best guess".  I could be wrong on it and we top this coming July 3rd for a lesser amount?  We are close it now, so that's not hard to do between now and next Wednesday.  I had thought it would be out into August to hit that level but we could see it next week.

On the SPX it would be around the 6200-6250 zone, and lets call it the 6300-6350 zone for the ES.  The SPY should be 618+ I'd think, and of course NVDA should hit its' FP of 160.22 for it to top.  It will be perfect timing if it all happens next week.

Have a great weekend.

I think at this point it's clear that the pullback into the 24th-26th area bottomed early with the low in the future Sunday night on 6/22. So there's nothing to do here as the bearish period has passed now. That doesn't mean we can't pullback 50-100 points here on the short term but we should not take out that low from this past Sunday.

From here until August we should go up, but it's most likely to be a grind-fest. The ol' summer doldrums basically, where we goes up 2-3 days, pulls back half for 1-2 days, and back up again. There's not likely going to be any good trades from here on out for the next several months.  Sure, there should be some short lived pullbacks but they will be hard to time and will just be a buying opportunity.

On a different note, I have a FP on NVDA from last year for 160.22, which if hit in the next day or so would be a decent short for a pullback of 5-10 points I'd think. Most all of the FP's when hit produce a turn for at least a day or two, so this one should be the same. Hitting the FP will run all the bear stops from the 1/6/25 prior high and the 11/21/24 high. Those were double tops at 152.89 and 153.13, so if we hit 160.22 I think all the bears will be taken out. It should then pullback to that support level at minimum I'd think. That's all I have for now.

Have an blessed day.

We grinded higher yesterday, which looked and felt like an exhaustion gap to hit all the bear stops.  We are now within a hair of hitting a new all time high too, but is it that easy? We have FP's showing up to the downside (a 600.14 SPY appeared after the close at 5:58pm yesterday), but nothing on the radar that could trigger a sharp pullback to hit them.

I don't know if they are going to bust through to make a new high first, and then pullback, or we see some surprise drop out of nowhere since the bears are now far and few between. Bears are really running out of time here as far as "cycles" go, and this week is pretty much all there is left on the bearish picture from prior cycles in the past.

Once we get into July it's pretty much bullish the entire month and into August. Sure, there could be some small pullbacks but nothing really big is expected. This market is really hard to figure out, that's for sure. You just can't predict what the next big surprise will be that causes a big move (up or down), but it's currently not going to pullback hard unless some news event triggers it. The next few days the bearish period will end, so if they want I guess they could chop it sideways? It just feels like yesterday was a big stop run on the shorts, and I don't think there's many left. So what's going to push the market up next is the big question?

Have an blessed day.

Looks like we have the breakout in play now and the market is gearing up to attempt to make a new all time high. I really don't think it's going to be as big of resistance as many may think because we are ending the bearish period and entering the bullish period now. Plus we've have several weeks of basing in a range from 5800-6000 or so, which means there should be plenty of energy for a strong move to gets through the high.

The 6250-6300 zone would be where the market could run out of steam as that's about a hundred points over the all time high and I'd say most of the shorts will be taken out by then, and they will flip to become bulls. We are not there yet of course, and we might grind sideways more after the current rally in play gets tired. But there's nothing bearish left now.

The weekly and daily charts have turned up from oversold on their MACD's and we are in a bullish period now, which can last into August. Sure, there should be a pullback at some point but we need to wait for the next "short term" bearish period to appear. For now though there's nothing to do on the bearish side. We are going up or sideways for awhile now.

Short term, we've probably run out of steam on this breakout and will top today and pullback small to base more into next week and beyond.  There's a downside FP one the SPY this morning at 588.79 from 4:00 am, so we could see that hit in the next day or so.  It would be a backtest of the Sunday futures low, but it would be a higher one then it was as 588.79 on the SPY should be around 6000-6020 (roughly) on the ES.  The Sunday low was 5959, so the FP on the SPY will clearly put the ES well above it.

Have an blessed day.

On Saturday the US attacked Iran, which logically is going to cause some volatility in the market. Oddly, I don't think it's going to cause another big drop like the drop into April. Of course we had a nice drop Sunday night in the futures when they opened from the Iran strike news, but it hit support around the 5950 zone and bounced from it.

Clearly this market is not ready to go down yet. As crazy as it sounds we are likely going to make new all time highs before this market has a good pullback. Too me, it's looking like it's going to rally into the 4th of the July, but I don't know the target. Nothing has changed from last week, even with the panic of the air strike.

Today, tomorrow or Wednesday all the bearishness should disappear. We might have already bottomed in the Sunday futures? Hard to say for sure as these "turn windows" are not exact but a general date range when the market bottomed at many times in the past. Meaning prior cycles overlaying the current mark line up and point to this Tuesday or Wednesday where a low of some kind should appear, and then after that the market goes up strongly.

That "low" might already be "in" and we will only have a higher low?  When I look at the futures this morning they have completely shrugged off the bombing of Iran as not important.  I can see a wave 1 up recovery from that gap down low and a wave 2 pullback in play this morning.  I think we will go up today in a squeeze, which will be a wave 3 of some degree.

Have an blessed day.

Yesterday we got a pullback in the ES Futures while the SPX Cash was closed, and that pullback got pretty much fully reversed back up. Any move down today probably will be the last chance for bears to exit as it's looking more and more like they want to make one more higher high before we get the big correction everyone is looking for. There's just not enough time to produce it now I think as the 25th/26th is where the next turn date is at and I just can't see it dropped hard in 3-4 days. Unless there's some kind of "event" to trigger a surprise mini-crash "time" is simply just running out for the bears. Plus, the wave count looks like we still need one more move up. Below is a chart of it...

As you can see we could still get another move up into next week or even the week after. If you remember I did a post about a prophecy that said Japan was going to get hit with a Tsunami on July 5th (http://reddragonleo.com/2025/05/05/es-morning-update-may-5th-2025/), so while I pray that is wrong and doesn't happen, what if the market rallies into July 3rd to make a slightly higher high, then is closed for the 4th of July, and this event really happens? What do you think will happen to the market on 7th after it opens that day? On top of that we have Trump giving Iran 2 weeks to come to some kind of agreement. That's right into the 4th of July too, and even if the Tsunami doesn't hit what if Trump attacks Iran? What if there's a false flag on the 4th of July? I don't have anyone mentioning that but anything is possible.

If this plays out it will surprise everyone I think, but I don't want to see a Tsunami hit Japan, so I hope I'm wrong. But currently this market is not wanting to breakdown. Every attempt gets saved, so while we can still see weakness into next week to fulfill the cycle patterns of a low into the 25th/26th that low is not looking very like to be very much. It's not even looking like we'll hit 5800 at this point. I think at this point it's going to take some event to trigger a big drop, and until that comes over the weekend I'm going to be looking for only a small pullback into mid next week and another rally high into the July 3rd. Get your popcorn, hot dogs, hamburgers, fireworks and American Flags ready as it's looking like there will be a new all time high into the 4th of July.

Have a great weekend.

While we are pulling back some it's too small I think for the market to be topped.  This looks and feels like we won't pullback much more then 5700-5800 into the 26th and then we go back up into July/August for a new all time high.

Short term, today is the FOMC and it's normally bullish.  So I have to think that if we go down after 2pm from the first reaction, but it could turn back up into the close.  I still think we are in an ABC pullback but the C wave down is looking more likely to play out into late next week.

So today, from yesterdays low, could be the B wave up?  Hard to say right now for sure?  But we should still have some kind of pullback into next week.  If the Fed doesn't say anything positive that "B wave" could already be done?  If so, then we should start the 5 wave decline for the C after the meeting.  If the B wave is not done the we'll go up after the meeting for another lower high, and then the C down starts later this week.

It's a tough call and I don't know the answer, but we do have a C wave down coming for the pullback, and around the 26th is where the low should happen.  How low I don't know?  But it's not looking likely to go down into the 5500's now.  I think it will be much higher then that (5800's maybe?) as time is running out for such a deep decline.  That move is likely going to happen later, like after the rally up into July/August.

Have an blessed day.