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Is 2018 Setting Up A Stock Market Crash Or Inflationary Based Mega Rally?

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February 18th 2018

A Strange Pattern Is Developing and so far I don't see anyone talking about it...

It's been over a year, maybe several years, since I've done a weekend post and video but I feel compelled to share what I've discovered recently. It's something I hope doesn't play out but so far is tracking out day to day almost perfectly.

Of course there are just as many diehard bears out there that are still calling for a stock market crash today, tomorrow, or soon... just like they have been for many years now. And there's the mega-bulls that are looking for the DOW to hit 100,000 or some crazy number. Which one is right, or are they both right? So far the crash callers have been wrong time after time as the market just keeps on going up and up and up.

The market has changed a lot in the last 18 years I believe with computer algorithms making up 84% of the trading each day, and with the Fed's injecting trillions of dollars into the system with one Quantitative Easing program after another to keep the market going up. That's at least until recently as they are now slowly rising interest rates and attempting to reverse the money injection, which some say caused the recent 10.8% drop in late January into February.

Others say that it was caused because Jerome Powell replaced Janet Yellen as the new Federal Reserve Chairman and the deep state that runs the stock market didn't like it... therefore they decided to tank the market to punish Trump for his decision. Some say he isn't Jewish as well and that the deep state always put a Jew in office as they are "one of them" and can be controlled. I don't know what to believe about that issue but certainly the market was super overbought from a technical point of view and needed to pullback anyway. The timing of it was and still is suspicious.

Anyway, what I have to show you deals with "codes" and "numerology" that the deep state (the elite, illuminati, cabal, skull and bones society, free masons, or whatever name they hide under?), use to tell their buddies on the inside what's going to happen next in the market. Now a true member (which I'm NOT) could read these codes perfectly and know exactly what's coming next, when it's coming, and when it ends... but I have to just guess at it and use the knowledge I've discovered over the last 9 years while writing this blog.

So, with that preface I must add that there is a super computer "AI" (artificial intelligence... I call it "SkyNet" from the Terminator movie) that reads every post, page, blog, website, tweet, chat, etc... on the internet and if certain things are said that "they" (the elite) don't like then it tends to get no traffic or worst the site gets attacked by "bot's" to slow it down to a point that no one can get it to load where they can read. In fact, SkyNet even watches youtube video's and converts them from speech to text so it can decide again if it gets traffic exposure or not.

Therefore I have to be careful on exposing this information to SkyNet as I only want to help a few fellow traders by giving them what I've discovered so they can be on the look out for it and not get caught on the wrong side of the trade should this actually happen? In order to keep this information away from SkyNet reading it I've decided to password protect it and require a real person to login to my site to get access to the password so they can read it. I apologize to those of you who think is too much trouble but I really must keep this information only in the hands of real people and NOT spread over the internet where SkyNet can read it easily. So I ask you NOT to copy the text or the video and repost it on the internet. It's free to view for all, so that's not too much to ask of you I think. I'm also putting the video up on Wistia instead of Youtube so hopefully it goes unnoticed by SkyNet.

To read the rest of this post and view the video you must create a new account and login to get access to the passworded page... which is located here:

Is 2018 Setting Up A Stock Market Crash Or Inflationary Based Mega Rally-Part 2

http://reddragonleo.com/2018/02/19/is-2018-setting-up-a-stock-market-crash-or-inflationary-based-mega-rally-part-2/

The password is: 1987

 

ES Morning Update March 18th 2024

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The market finished an ABC down last week for a Small Wave 4 last week most likely and we should be in Small Wave 5 up this week. It will likely unfold in 5 sub-waves with the 1 up happening today, and likely the 2 down tomorrow... which could be very small. Then the 3 up is likely to happen after the FOMC on Wednesday, and again the 4 should be small.

Then lastly the 5 up should complete Small Wave 5 up by this Friday, or possibly next Monday. My FET (Fibonacci Extension Target) is 5334 on the ES, which ideally gets hit... but "time" and "pattern" is super important too. Meaning that if we get close to that zone this Friday I'll be looking for a short.

I've taken 5 longs over the past month and no shorts, but if this plays out I will be taking my first short in a long time. I'm not going into too much more as I'm still working on the bugs of the site. It's completely a 100% clean now of all malware. I started off in a new server with nothing on it, and I'm using a new wordpress theme.

I cleaned up all the old links too, but I'm still waiting on my hosting company to update the SSL certificate, so currently the HTTPS is not working. Only the HTTP showing the website. So a browser that allows that must be used to see the site. I tried it on google chrome but it won't allow it. But Firefox allows it, and so does the Yandex browser. I've not tries others, but hopefully this is all fixed by my hosting company in the next few days.

Have a blessed day.

I Am Back

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After spending everyday since last Tuesday the 12th, working to rebuild the site, I finally got a new one up and running. It's very similar to the old one but it's a new wordpress theme and I've made a lot of updates on the broken old links to pages that aren't used anymore.

The login is different and easier to sign up now for new people. However, I still have some issues, which are that the images aren't all showing up for old posts and for the profile images (avatars) for the members. Each member will have recreate their account too, if they didn't join prior to March 20th, 2020 as from that date back to the beginning first post on September 21st, 2009 is all the data I had saved.

Meaning if any user joined in that time period their account should still be in the database, but they might have to reset their password... I'm not sure there? Most everyone will need to upload a new profile picture as again, they seem lost or damaged. It's way easier now to do everything with your profile as I've changed that signin and/or join process completely.

As for all the posts from March 20th, 2020 up until today I have them all stored in Notepad for the text and my hard drives for the images. It's going to take 6-12 months of slowly putting those old posts back up to get everything back, as I had 3519 posts and the backup copy from 2009-2020 only has 2204 posts. That's a lot of posts to put back up over time.

The good news is that most aren't important really as the market is ever changing. They are more just for me and website traffic to them, that's all. I did put up about 10 or so of the most recent. I will add to that over time so that anyone can go back and reference some old post if needed. If anyone has trouble with the new site and logging back in or re-creating their site again just email me: Red (at) RedDragonLeo (dot) com

One more thing to note... the certificate for the HTTPS needs updated, so some browser will put a warning about.  I should have it fixed in a day or so as well.

Have a blessed day.

ES Morning Update March 12th 2024

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Yesterday first pulled back and then went up into the close to end slightly red but we have made another new higher high then the 5196 gap up high at the open Monday. It's really hard to get a good feel right now on where the market is going as there's nothing clear in the technicals.

Then of course we have the CPI this morning before the open and that's going to cause some wild swings both ways. I just sat on my hands yesterday and will again look for some better setup to get long. I could miss it, but I don't want to chase as that's how you lose money, so I'll be looking for one more pullback before we run up to the FET of 5334, which as I said yesterday, could happen after the CPI... and that would mean we should top there and drop into the March 22nd turn date to put in a low.

I prefer a pullback for Small Wave 4 but who knows if that wave count is right or not? The smaller degree ones are the toughest to figure out, but if we get a pullback then it should be S4, and might end next week before the FOMC?

It's possible that we hit my closer FET at 5225 from the CPI and then reverse back down afterwards... I mean after the wild swings subside of course. We did pullback some yesterday with a low of 5157 on the ES, but I just didn't feel comfortable taking a long there with the CPI the next day. I'm just patiently waiting to get a decent pullback to go long for that last rally up, or for that final FET of 5334 to get hit without me long where I'll short it. Nothing more to add, let's just see what happens and look for another setup.

On last thing, that low yesterday of 5157 came just shy of filling the gap on the ES from the roll from the March contract to the June, as on Friday it close at 5132 at the 4:59pm EST last tick.  Not that it's required to close that gap I'd certain be interested in a long if we dropped that low to fill it.  I'd still have to look at the technicals but it would be of big interest to me, that's for sure.

Have a blessed day.

ES Morning Update March 11th 2024

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Yesterday first pulled back and then went up into the close to end slightly red but we have made another new higher high then the 5196 gap up high at the open Monday. It's really hard to get a good feel right now on where the market is going as there's nothing clear in the technicals. Then of course we have the CPI this morning before the open and that's going to cause some wild swings both ways.

I just sat on my hands yesterday and will again look for some better setup to get long. I could miss it, but I don't want to chase as that's how you lose money, so I'll be looking for one more pullback before we run up to the FET of 5334, which as I said yesterday, could happen after the CPI... which would mean we should top there and drop into the March 22nd turn date to put in a low. I prefer a pullback for Small Wave 4 but who knows if that wave count is right or not?

The smaller degree ones are the toughest to figure out, but if we get a pullback then it should be S4, and might end next week before the FOMC? It's possible that we hit my closer FET at 5225 from the CPI and then reverse back down afterwards... I mean after the wild swings subside of course. We did pullback some yesterday with a low of 5157 on the ES, but I just didn't feel comfortable taking a long there with the CPI the next day.

I'm just patiently waiting to get a decent pullback to go long for that last rally up, or for that final FET of 5334 to get hit without me long where I'll short it. Nothing more to add, let's just see what happens and look for another setup.

Have a blessed day.

ES Morning Update March 8th 2024

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We got the rally up yesterday that I was looking for, but it make another new all time high, so that killed my Tiny Wave count, but the overall bigger picture is still intact. I've not taken a single short in over a month now, just longs on pullbacks... and it works. That won't continue forever but as of right now all the pullbacks are getting bought up.

That should continue into the turn date on March 22nd where hopefully we top for Large Wave 3 (or C?), and then a good correction should happen. Anywhere from 5-10% is my best guess, and that''s only if it's a Large Wave 3 top... meaning the drop will be a Large Wave 4, thereby leaving Large Wave 5 up into this summer.

If the top turns out to be a Large Wave C then the bear market will start and we'll go down the rest of the year. I do not know yet which one will play out but I lean toward Large Wave 3 because of the "lack of" a negative divergence on the weekly chart. We'll cross that road when we get there.

Moving on, below is the new adjusted wave count...

As you can see the overall picture is still the same, we are just not pulling back as much as on my other wave count. It's always a "best guess" on the smaller waves, but what it's suggesting in a small pullback in the futures, which already happened right before the close yesterday, and that is a wave 4 on my chart. I didn't label it as an "Extra Tiny Wave 4" (didn't have room to type all that inside the small box), but that's what it would be basically as it's the next lower degree below Tiny Waves.

Afterwards, I'd look for an early rally today for "Extra Tiny Wave 5", which might just be a double top, who knows? But then I'd lean toward a surprise late Friday pullback for Tiny Wave 4 down. We've had so many "Friday Rallies" that this would be a good surprise to everyone that has spotted this pattern I think.

And again, I'm guessing here on these moves, but I don't trade them. I have only been looking at deeper pullbacks to get long at, which I've been focused on watching the RSI get oversold on the 2hr chart and near oversold on the 6hr chart. So I won't be doing anything until I see a deeper pullback to once again get at least the 2hr chart oversold.

If my crazy wave count plays out then we'll go up Monday for Tiny Wave 5 instead of the typical weakness that we have been having for many weeks now. Lastly we'd see a nice pullback Tuesday after the CPI for Small Wave 4 down. These "events" are just periods where those waves can play out, but possibly it's something else next week that is blamed for the move? I just keep adjusting as we go forward in time and keep looking for longs until we get to the next important turn date.

Have a great weekend.

ES Morning Update March 7th 2024

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The market continued higher yesterday and then pulled back some around midday and went mostly sideways into close. We did not make a new all time high (which I didn't think we would) and are likely still in a Tiny Wave B bounce, inside Small Wave 4, which the B wave is subdividing too it seems.

I don't think we have finished it as the technicals suggest we need more time to get the short term charts overbought again. But that doesn't mean it will be an a straight line of course. Most likely this is Tiny Wave B and it's subdividing, which suggest it might not top until tomorrow, or Monday?

Today could be choppy again with some more "pulling back" first, but I don't think it will take out the low from Tuesday. Possibly it's a B wave inside the B wave? If so, then there's a C wave up inside Tiny Wave B still yet to come.

As you can see in the 2hr chart above this could do a lot of chop into next week, but we could bottom into the CPI? If this plays out then I'd look for the rest of next week to carve out a Tiny Wave's 1 and 2... which leaves 3, 4 and 5 to finish all the waves up to complete Large Wave 3 (or C) the week after that. Ideally we top into the March 22nd turn date, but who knows if that happens or not.

I can only say that so far this has been tracking pretty good. The waves within waves aren't easy to predict, nor the price levels, but it's still been "on track" for the most part.

Have a blessed day.

ES Morning Update March 6th 2024

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WOW! What a surprise... a down day. Haven't seen that in quite awhile it seems. I wasn't expecting it to be that deep but it is what it is I guess. It still looks like an A wave down inside Small Wave 4 right now, and I think we bottomed yesterday near the close as we rallied back up nicely into the afterhours session.

I think we will now spend the rest of the week, and probably into the CPI next Tuesday, carving out the B wave bounce. I wasn't expecting the A down to end that fast but it certain looks like it might have done so... but there's this new FP (2 of them possibly?) that might be saying that we will go back down today to retest the low from yesterday to put in a double bottom. Here's that FP on the QQQ...

I'm thinking that we revisit the lower (possible) FP at 434.28 first and then rally up to the 443.69 FP later. But that's just a guess as we could also go up to the higher FP first and then the lower one isn't hit until next week after the CPI? It's hard too know for sure but I'll just be keeping them in mind as "targets" for when we are heading in that direction. The more logical move is to hit the downside today and then go back up.

Of course on the ES it will trade a little differently then the QQQ but the direction should match, so whenever the upside FP on the QQQ is hit and pieced I'd be looking at the ES as possibly topping for the B wave bounce. As for the C wave down... that's going to be hard to figure out.

I do think it will unfold in 5 waves, so if by some crazy squeeze we hit the upside FP on the QQQ today then we could start the C down after that and then I'd looking for it to bottom into the CPI next week instead of top. There are a lot of variations to how this could play out but so far odds favor yesterdays drop (the A wave) as being finished. We'll see.

Have a blessed day.

ES Morning Update March 5th 2024

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We may have topped yesterday for Tiny Wave 5 up with that late day squeeze up to 5157 as we sold off quickly after the close. I said yesterday that I was looking for the 5225 level per my FET (Fibonacci Extension Target), which I thought would be from Tiny Wave 5 up, but it appears finished to me now.

If so, then Small Wave 3 up ended too and now we should spend all week (possibly) drifting lower for Small Wave 4... which might be in an ABC pattern? Small Wave 2 down was a choppy mess that started from the 5123 high on 2/23 and ended at the 5060 low on 2/29, so that's 6 calendar days in total, and that pattern could be repeated in "time" but probably not in pattern.

They tend to alternative one or the other, and since we have lots of time left before reaching the next turn date on March 22nd I think the market will drag out this Small Wave 4 all week to burn that time, which leaves two weeks for Small Wave 5 up to play out. Therefore I lean toward an ABC down this time and another week or so in time to finish Small Wave 4... and it just might bottom right into the CPI next Tuesday, either before it or after it's released?

If the market can pullback to about 5100 into next week then that should be plenty of time to reset the short term overbought charts and allow another week plus rally to the 5334.39 upside level for my FET from the July 2023 high from the October 2022 low. That target should be hit (and pierced) before any good pullback (5-10%?) can happen, and ideally that's right into the turn date as well. It's really hard too forecast the day to day moves, but a week full of nothing but chop would be ideal I think.

And then they can used the CPI number rally the market up. Lastly, the futures will roll into the next quarters contract next Thursday into Friday, and it's estimated that the spread will be almost 60 point between it and the SPX cash, so keep that in mind.

Have a blessed day.

ES Morning Update March 4th 2024

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We got the rally last Friday to the 5146 level from my short term Fibonacci Extension Target, which I'm going to abbreviate to just FET going forward. Now looking back in time from my post I did on the 161.8% extension it's common to see exactly what we saw last week. What I mean is that there was a run up to "almost hit the FET", then a small pullback, and final a hit and pierce of the FET.

We saw that happen last week with the first high of 5123, which was the one that fell shy, then the pullback, and finally the rally up to pierce the FET of 5146 on Friday. Now that was a short term FET, and since that pattern has completed now we should pullback some early this week before the next rally up to the next FET of 5190, which is close to another FET at 5225, so somewhere in that zone would be the next high before another small pullback or pause happens.

The levels that I calculated those price points from, (chart above), for the FET of 5190, was using the 4866 low on 1/31/24 to the 5066 high on 2/12/24, which projects a 161.8% extension high of 5190. The other FET of 5225 was calculated from the 2/21/24 low of 4959 to the recent high of 5123 on 2/23/24.

Those two are close to each other so somewhere in that range would be the next upside zone where the rally expected next week should end at and pullback or pause again. Meaning we should "pause" Monday and/or Tuesday of this week (possible pullback to 5110 or less?) and then start the next move up for the two FET's at 5190-5225 the rest of the week.

That should take us into the week of OPEX (next week), which is where the pullback for Small Wave 4 should happen.  That would leave Small Wave 5 up into the following week, and interestingly we have an FOMC meeting on Wednesday, March 20th... right in front of the turn date on March 22nd. Very nice timing for sure.

My best guess would again be to see a "pause" on Monday and Tuesday that week (18th/19th), and then a last squeeze back up into Friday the 22nd to reach the biggest FET I have, which was calculated from the 3502 in October of 2022 and the 4634 high on 7/27/23, which projects a 161.8% level of 5334. That... in my opinion is "The Big ONE", and should be the point where we see a nice pullback of 300-500 points from.

I'm thinking it will complete a Large Wave C (or 3?), which should produce a 5-10% pullback (if L3) or "the top" if LC... which would mean a much, much larger drop. I don't think it will be that way because I don't see any negative divergence yet on the weekly chart, but there's really no way to know until it happens. Here's my new adjusted wave count...

The big thing I've changed is that I removed the Tiny Waves 1-5 and just marked them as Small Waves. It suggests the 5066 high on 2/12/24 ended Small Wave 5 up, and Medium Wave 3 up. Then the pullback afterwards completed Medium Wave 4, and now we are in Medium Wave 5 up, which will have five small waves inside it.

My best guess is that we started Small Wave 3 up inside Medium Wave 5 last Friday, and that it will end in the 5190-5225 zone. Then a small pullback for Small Wave 4 the first couple of days next week, and the final Small Wave 5 up into Friday, March 22nd. That should complete Medium Wave 5, inside Large Wave C (or 3?) which is where the best sell should come from.  Here's a close up of the waves...

I think that on Friday we started Small Wave 3 up inside Medium Wave 5, which probably will end by this Friday.  The small intraday pullback on Thursday was likely a Tiny Wave 2, with Tiny Wave 3 up afterwards.  Any pullback today should be Tiny Wave 4, then Tiny Wave 5 should reach the 5190-5225 zone.

It's at that point where we could see a similar choppy sideways pullback the first 2-4 days of next week for Small Wave 4 that could look like Small Wave 2 did from it's 5123 start on 2/23 to the 5060 low on 2/29... only it will be shorter in time I think.  It should be the move into the FOMC next Wednesday the 20th.  Then something Powell says can be blamed for the final rally up into Friday toward FET of 5334.39 to complete all the waves.

The drop afterwards could be a large one.  I don't know how much but could be something similar to the July top (LA or L1) down to the October low (LB or L2).  That drop was from 4634.50 to 4122.25, which was a 11% pullback.  If we reach 5334.39 then 11% would be 590 points down roughly.  I doubt if it repeats like that but it's something to remember.  I lean toward 300-500 points at most.  We'll see.

Have a blessed day.

ES Morning Update March 1st 2024

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We got an early pop yesterday after the PCE data came out, which really wasn't important but the market was setup for a move up and it just used that data as a catalyst to rally. But it failed to hold and dropped back to negative midday after that 20 point pop, and then it went back up into the close to around the same zone.

The market is close to a bottom as that pop and retrace was back test of the falling channel the market has been in since the high. This tells me that today or Monday we should see another multi-day rally of 100+ points. Possibly it starts today, it's hard too know for sure? We got close to the 5050 zone yesterday with a hit of 5060, which might be "close enough", suggesting any pullback today might be just a higher low.

I posted the chart above in the chatroom yesterday, which is a fake print on the QQQ, and low and behold it was hit and pierce around the open before a reversal back down midday, so it was a "signal" that it would be a point of interest where the market would hit and turn from.

Over the many years of tracking FP's I've noticed that the intraday one's don't have any edge for them hitting and reversing back down for days or weeks. They can hit and pause, and the go further in the same direction, or hit and reverse for only an intraday move like yesterday... and then continue in the same direction. The only thing I use them for is to exit positions I'm in that are based on the technicals.

Moving on... another strong rally is close and should go into next week. We should hit my 5146 target, possibly pause there and pullback some. It will be a point to exit longs and wait for a better entry from another move down I think. But I'll have to wait to see how the technicals are when we get there, as it might reach the next target of 5190.

Now as far as wave count goes, if we bottomed yesterday, then that should completed Small Wave 4, which means we are in Small Wave 5 up now. Wave fives can go any amount. They can truncate short, extend to be longer then the wave three, match the wave one... pretty much any amount.

My feeling on it are that we have a target of 5146 with my Fibonacci Extension System, which is the shorter and closer one. Then there's another higher one at 5190, so one of those zone would be a likely top for the coming rally that I'm calling Small Wave 5 right now. If that count is correct then it will complete Medium Wave 3, and from there we should see a decent pullback of 3%+ I'd think.

We have Jay Powell speaking next Wednesday, so possibly we rally up into that date and he causes some small panic for that Medium Wave 4 pullback? But it shouldn't start the bigger pullback I think as it should be followed by Medium Wave 5 up into late March, like "possibly" the 22nd? If that happens we'll complete either a Large Wave C or 5, and with the C the market will have topped and we'll start the bear market.

But I lean toward the 5 because there's no negative divergence on the weekly chart yet, therefore a 5-10% pullback for Large Wave 4 would be more likely. Then a final rally for Large Wave 5 into late summer. Below is a chart I posted in the chatroom yesterday showing that divergences.

It's never a guarantee that we MUST have a negative divergence but usually we have one. Something that could cause that not to happen would be some kind of event (another false flag?), which then we'd get another drop like the COVID crash in 2020. I have no way of knowing if that's going to happen or not, so I will just place my short with the mindset that we will only get a 5-10% pullback, and if it turns out to be more then I'll adapt. We'll cross that road when we get there. For now let's just see if we get the rally up to 5146 or 5190 the next few days.

Have a great weekend.

Have a blessed day.

ES Morning Update February 29th 2024

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More chop yesterday with a drift lower. It's getting close to the 5050 support zone now, and the RSI is working its' way down closer to oversold. It doesn't have to reach oversold of course as in strong up trends it doesn't get buried below the 30 level, so a bottom is very close now.

It could happen today or it could have been yesterday, but after that I do expect a rally up next week with the target of 5146 for the short term and 5190-5225 ultimately. I'll have to see where the technicals are once the first lower upside target is met, as that might be all we get on the coming rally before another pullback like the current one happens.

It's hard to say until we get there first, and how long it takes to get there is important to as "time" for the strong bullish period the first week of March. If there is enough time left then we could reach the higher level, but if it takes all of next week to reach the lower target then time will run out and we should pullback again the week of OPEX prior to those higher levels being reached.

And while I want to see the March 22nd turn date produce a high that's not known at this point as it could be a bottom? Right now though it does look possible to play out, which will either be the end of Medium Wave 3 (meaning Medium Wave 4 be the pullback, which might just be 3-5%) or the Large Wave C (or 3?), which would should result in a larger pullback, like 5-9% possibly.

Have a blessed day.

ES Morning Update February 28th 2024

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Pretty much as expected yesterday... a little lower throughout the day and then up into the close.  That bounce was likely a B wave, which clearly ended as we are back down again this morning.  So I have to think we are now in the C wave down of Small Wave 4 and will finish soon, probably in a day or so.

Then we should start Small Wave 5 up to complete Medium Wave 3, which might end by the end of next week? If so, I'd look for Medium Wave 4 to play out during the week of OPEX, which should be followed by Medium Wave 5 up into the turn date on March 22nd.  This is the ideal path but we all know the market rarely plays out like you want it, so I'll just adjust as we go forward.

As for today, I think the upside is limited as we appear to be in a C wave as I said, but it should end today or tomorrow and then we start back up.  My target is 5190-5225 to complete Medium Wave 3.

Have a blessed day.

ES Morning Update February 27th 2024

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We started the pullback yesterday, which was mostly into the close. I do not know how low it will go as it could be finished now, but the 5050 zone is an important support that would be ideal for a long. However, with yesterday and Sunday being a "turn window" I decided to take a chance and just re buy my previous longs at a cheaper price.

We might go down to that 5050 zone, but if it happens I'll just ride it out as I still think we will rally up into the next turn date on March 22nd. For me, I'm just trying to get another good entry on the longs, which I did, but nailing the exact best spot is impossible. Not much else to add here as the overall trend is still up and that's how I'm trading it.

Have a blessed day.

ES Morning Update March 20th 2020

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Looks like the market is trying to bottom here gang. Yesterday was clearly a much calmer one and today looks like it's starting out that way too. It's Qual Witching (not Triple), where 4 different types of assets classes expire. Historically it's a positive day, and it's starting over that way here before the open. I still don't think this is down on the downside.

There are lower projections still outstanding. Oscar Carboni has 2109 on the ES Futures as his downside target Peter Eliades still has two lower target areas on the Nasdaq (Nasdaq-40 week projection 6166.97-5382.85 and Nasdaq-4 year projection 5308.97-4805.821). I'll include both video's here in this post.

This again looks like the calm before the storm. My best guess is that we'll bottom out next week, or by the end of March. Then the storm happens from April 1st to April 10th (aka, the arrests of the deep state players). During this period I think they will close the stock market.  Again, just a guess and NOT fact. If so, then when it reopens I would not be surprised if a cure isn't announced for the virus.

This could be released during the time I think the market will be closed. If this happens we'll see a huge rally back up start after April 10th (again, this is speculation on the 10 days of darkness during that period). So, prepare yourself according in case this does happen.

Short term I think this bounce will be over with early next week... maybe today? But they might bounce it for several days and start back down after Tuesday or so. I feel a few more days and a little more upside is needed for the short term charts to work off the massively oversold conditions they are in. We might get to 2600-2700, but I don't see much more. There's still a lot of funds trapped and they will keep selling on any move up, so that should limit the rally.

The ES is trying desperately to hold that double bottom low from December 2018, but the DOW already lost it, and so did the Russell. The SPX will lose it too eventually. So with the Nasdaq as it's been the strongest and isn't even down to that 2018 low. Instead it's trying to hold the June 2019 double bottom low. They will break at some point next week I think. Today though looks to be another "calm before the storm" one. Have a great weekend. God is in control, fear not.

ES Morning Update March 19th 2020

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Looks like the market this morning is going to open without another limit up or down move... LOL. These are Biblical times we are in and no amount of technical analysis or elliottwave can predict it. But we do know that government has tons of power to control the market if they really want too. We know that many, many times in the past the Fed's would step in at some point to stop a decline. Recently they have injected some large sums of money into the it but it's not had the same effect. It's just got too far out of control it appears, and no amount of money can save it... or can it?

I get the feeling that's just not the case. Instead, I think the government is waiting until the market has cleaned out all the fraud and corruption from various hedge funds and companies, like maybe JPmorgan with their silver manipulation, or Goldman Sachs? I don't know for sure of course but I do think that at some point the government will come into the market with bailout of certain key companies (airlines), and direct buying of stocks.

But first I think Trump and his team are using this event to clean out the evil. He seems to know when the stock market is going to bottom as he tweeted back in 2018 at the December lows that stocks look like a good buy here. Recently he said "this is the calm before the storm" (at 24:40 into this video), which tells me the stock market might calm down here and do some kind of bounce for a few days or more. But it also tells me that once the calm period is over with the storm will be when the market drops again, which could be before, during or after the April 1st to 10th period as that's being referred to now as the "10 days of darkness" where mass assets are going to happen.

I don't know if it's true or not but the facts we have at hand right now do support it. I mean, we do have cities on lock down and area in quarantine. So this event really could happen. Therefore if we get a bounce of any kind in the coming days (during this calm period) we shouldn't think that the low is in and should look to short it.

There are lower levels forecast-ed by Peter Eliades a (from yesterdays morning update), so unless the rally is huge, with the Nasdaq getting up over 8000 or so, then we should expect any rally to just be a bounce before another drop. I'd talk about technical and wave counts if it worked, but this isn't your normal correction. It's historic, and has never happened ever in the stock market... not even in 1929 or 1987. So during this calm period lets see if the market can get a bounce. God bless everyone, and may Trump succeed in arresting the deep state satanists.

ES Morning Update March 18th 2020

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The market is down again this morning as it just can't seem to hold any gains. It's a bounce one day and give it all back the next type of trading environment. Maybe yesterday was part of the ABC up for a wave 4 move, but we'd need to stay above the current low for this to be the B down and Tuesday the A up. If so then we should get 2 days up in a row for the C wave I'd think. It's really kinda worthless right now trying to find the bottom it feels.

I'll include this video from Peter Eliades that has a downside target on the Nasdaq-40 week projection of 6166.97-5382.85, and the Nasdaq-4 year projection shows 6308.97-4805.821, so unless that get invalidated that's where we are headed to. If you pick 5000 as a middle ground then the DOW would be around 14,400 and the SPX around 1700, but that's only if the ratio between them stays the same... which I doubt if that happens. No matter what, it's some scary low numbers. Here's that video.

Have a blessed day and remember that God is in full control.

ES Morning Update March 17th 2020

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It finally looks like the market is calming down and stabilizing some with this morning the futures not being limit up or down. I'm not expecting this area to be "the low" but we should be in for a few days of a choppy rally I believe. Considering that this is the monthly options expiration week (triple witching I think) the market is back to the old pattern of bottoming out in by the end of the second week of the month (or early the third week) and then going back into Friday so the puts sold by the market makers expire worthless on the rally.

It doesn't work as well these days with weekly options now existing, and Monday and Wednesday ones too. But not all ETF's or stocks have those extra option dates. So the pattern does still carry weight and works from time to time. I still think there are lower prices coming but that wave 4 bounce could finally be starting now.

If so then I'd be looking for a top by the close on Thursday (maybe Friday) and then another drop should follow. My focus will be on how high it goes, as if it's a wave 4 bounce only with an expected wave 5 down yet to come, then it shouldn't go above 2800 by much and certainly not recapture 2900+ as that zone is big resistance from the October 3rd-10th, 2019 period, as well as August back then too. It's also the first low from the wave 1 drop.

The 200 day moving average it up higher around 3047 right now but that's too high for a wave 4 up in my opinion. It should not get near it. The 38.2% retracement from the low back up (starting from the all time high) is 2780.74, so again, this bounce (assuming it coming) should not go much higher in the coming few days. That's all I have for now. God Bless.

ES Morning Update March 16th 2020

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Last Friday we saw a big day up, but most of the move was into the close. Then half of it got reversed going into the weekend. Sunday night the Fed's announced another rate cut but the pop higher was short lived as the market reversed back to hit the limit where futures stayed all night long. There's an FOMC meeting this Wednesday but with them already telling us what they have planned I'm not sure what more can be said to juice the market?

However, the market is very short term oversold so possibly we see some kind of ABC bounce up into the meeting, but it's likely to be sold into. If the market was to flush down into the meeting to the 2100-2200 area instead then I'd say that's where a decent rally could start from, but odds lean more toward going up into the meeting with 2800-3000 as the likely high.

No matter what bounce happens there's too much technical damage to get very far north, and another lower low is expected.  And early this week we could see some more wild swings up and down to shake out both bulls and bears alike before another drop starts. I've been looking for a wave 4 up and this could be it... or what we saw Friday was all of it?

Naturally it will be choppy and will breakdown into smaller waves. Once done though I expect another drop (wave 5?) to that 2100-2200 area. From there I'm sure we'll have lower target.  That's all I have for today. God bless everyone as I know a lot of people will be impacted financially from this virus and stock market crash.

ES Morning Update March 13th 2020

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Yesterdays drop was huge and the put to call ratio hit a new high again. It's starting to look and feel like capitulation here, and that means a bottom is near. Probably not today with this strong rally back up as trapped bulls will sell into it, but the next trip back down should be the last one before a very strong rally back up starts. My guess is we'll that last drop on Monday.

Whether it's a higher low or lower low I'm not sure, but this move up acts like a wave 4 bounce inside a C wave down, so a wave 5 down to end the C wave and the larger degree A wave from the current all time high, could be next. Give me that last drop on Monday and then I'll be a bull. For today the 263-265 area on the SPY is resistance. Buckle up for next week as should be just as wild as the ride down as the bulls try to take it back up. So if you missed this big drop (I know I did) you'll get another shot to catch the move back up. Have a great weekend and God bless.

ES Morning Update March 12th 2020

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So much for the bounce is it's pretty clear now we aren't getting one. If you missed the drop there's no good bounces to get short at. Now we look for a bottom, which should be around 20,300 on the DOW and 2525 ES (2560 SPX) according to Oscar Carboni's OMNI system. I don't have much to add that hasn't been said in prior updates. The bounce I was rooting for from the meeting the banksters had at the White House yesterday didn't do anything to help the market. So, more downside is coming. Stay safe and remember that cash is a position.

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