The market picked option 4 yesterday when I only had 3 options for the path it should take... LOL! The SPX made a new lower low, which was the Wild Card Scenario, and the ES made a higher low, which doesn't look like the Bullish or Bearish Scenario but a mix between them.

If I had to pick one I'd say it was the Bullish one as the early low happen (but not a lower low in the ES), then we rallied until around the 1pm period (EST) before we pulled back small for about 30-45 minutes. Then up into the close afterwards, and that's roughly what I wrote on the Bullish Wave Count from yesterday.

There's still big resistance in the 5700-5720 ES zone (I wrote on the chart 5720-5760, but it's lower I think), which is where the market will likely pullback at, or go sideways. If we can get there today and go sideways we could push through it Wednesday and Friday. It's hard to know what the price will be but the time will run out for the bulls this Friday (possibly into next Monday). After the clock expires for the rally the price will be whatever it will be, and the next move down next week should take out the lows.

We might see something similar to the 5/20/22 low, which could be equal to yesterday. We then rally hard into this Friday/Monday and start down next week. Back then it chopped from 5/27/22 until 6/8/22, and then fell off a cliff hard into a 6/16/22 low. That could be the early May low, and while patterns repeat over and over they never repeat exactly.

Possibly the chop period back then happens from April 23rd/24th until May 2nd? And the fast drop period from back then happens first... like it starts next week and ends into the 23rd/24th? The point here is that after this Friday the cycles are bearish again, and the expected low periods are the 23rd/24th and early May. As for that prior pattern you'll notice that the high it rallied into on 5/27/22 took out the prior high on 5/17/22. That would be similar to the recent 3/25/25 high getting taken out if we hit the FP on the SPY into this Friday.

Patterns rhyme all the time, and this would not shock me to see it play out. Back then that sideways chop before the last big drop was likely done to suck in a ton of bulls thinking the low was in. But currently everyone is super bearish so that might not be needed? Instead all that is required is the squeeze to the FP to get rid of the bears.

Then another big drop can start next week without anyone short... meaning they don't have to get a ton of bulls long but just need to get the bears squeezed out. I don't know if it's going to play out that or not but it's something to keep in the back of your mind when next week gets here.

If it repeats the same pattern as back then we'll see all of next week have big up's and down's repeatedly before it falls off a cliff. From a "Wave Count" point of view that would be a series of wave 1's down and 2's up in various degree's until a wave 3 of 3 of 5 sets up for that last big drop.

Have a blessed day.

The market broken down Friday and went deeper then I expected. I was gone all day so I couldn't post, and I was expecting more of a pullback, but not that deep. This has likely changed the wave count a little but that's not known for certain just yet, so I'll cover both scenario's. Let's go over the more bullish counts first. With it we had an ABC up from the from the 3/13 low that ended the A wave with the 3/25 high of 5835, which had a smaller A, B and C inside it. Normally A waves have 5 waves inside them but this one only had 3... which then means the drop from that low into Friday was a B, and that leaves a C wave up still left, which should go to the 586.86 FP on the SPY (roughly 5900 ES). Below is that chart...

The Bullish Wave Count...

Next is the bearish case. This is where the same ABC up happened into the 5835 top, but that ends the ABC as it doesn't subdivide in this case but finish the B wave right there. Whereas in the bullish case that same B wave hasn't ended as there's still a C sub-wave still to come this week (the rally to the FP), and then the B wave ends and the C wave down starts. But in this bearish case the C wave down has already started and we did the wave 3 inside that C on Friday, leaving the 4 and 5 yet to complete (today probably).

In this case we'd still see a rally this week but it will be a lower high. Basically, the rally would get stopped in the 5720-5760 zone (roughly). In this case I think we'd see an ABC up into this Friday to complete this move.

For example... if we finish the wave 4 and 5 down today, which completes the wave 1 down inside wave C, we could see a strong A wave up on Tuesday (into early Wednesday), then pullback (half?) on Wednesday (into Thursday) for the B wave, and finally a C wave up into the close on Friday to end the wave 2 up. Then next week for the nasty wave 3 inside C down, and that wave will unfold in 5 waves too, then a 4 bounce and a 5 down to finish the C, which will end it all from the all time high on 2/19... and that could be right into the 23rd/24th of April. Here's that chart...

The Bearish Wave Count...

If Friday would have held the 5700 zone of support and NOT taken the 5651 low on 3/21 I'd say odds are good that we'd see the C wave up to the FP on the SPY to complete the B wave (again, into this Friday), and then we'd start the C wave down. But that's looking less likely to play out now (unless the wild card scenario happens).

In fact, the first rally up (Tuesday/Wednesday) will run into resistance around that 3/21 low (and 3/18 low). That could be the A wave inside a wave 2 up (again, the bearish case), and the pullback will get the bears fully loaded but it should not take out the expected low put in Monday, which will be a B wave.

Then a C wave up into this Friday to complete the wave 2 should take out those double bottoms and reach the 5720-5760 zone. That will make everyone all bulled up again looking for a breakout next week. But if this wave count is right next week will be a blood bath as it will be a wave 3 inside a C wave down. For today, I'm looking for the wave 4 bounce and wave 5 down to complete the wave 1 inside C down (for this scenario).

The Wild Card Scenario...

Remember that I write my posts for the next trading day after the close of the current day (and over the weekend for Monday posts), so I never know how the open is going to be.  ONLY the feature image is done the morning of the current trading day.

This wild card move would be the most bullish as it get the low put in now so it's done, finished, kaput.  It won't make a lower low into the April 23rd/24th period but a higher one.  I personally would love to see it as it's the easiest to trade I think.  Why?  Because if we flush out now we get all the bulls out and nothing be bears left, who will short the entire move up, which should squeeze all the way to the FP on the SPY of 486.86 into this Friday (possibly Monday the 7th).

Then the move down into the 23rd/24th will be hard to trade as there will be a ton of new bears looking for the C wave to 4900 (or wherever).  So it will be a choppy one with many fast drops and fast squeezes back up to shake out both sides.  It will be an ABC move of course, and probably a larger degree wave 2, whereas the rally to the 486.86 FP will be the wave 1 up.

This is my favorite scenario.  Will it play out?  Only time will time.  Due note that in both the bullish and bearish wave counts the low is not taken out now.  By not doing it now it suggests it will happen in late April.  But if we get the flush out today then I think the lows will be in and we won't see 4900 or any other crazy target until late this year during the expected crash.

Keep in the common pattern for the market to revisit a prior years' high whenever it's a bearish year.  I think we'll see the 4808 high from 2022 hit this year in the fall.  If we top at 6500+ that's going to be one very large drop, but again, it's a very common pattern to this this happen.  And, by the time we get to August I think the 200 week SMA on the Weekly chart will (ironically) be around that level.  It's at 4684.14 today.

Have a blessed day.

No change from yesterdays post. I'm still looking for some kind of decline into Monday, which should be an ABC pattern, and once it's done it will complete wave 2, inside C up. Then from that low into next Friday we should see a face ripper for wave's 3, 4, and 5 to complete that C wave and end the larger B wave from the lows a week ago.

This again is baring any unforeseen news event coming out that could cause a much bigger drop that would take out the lows and run for 5300 or lower. I give that low odds though as this rally from that low does not look like a wave 4 with that big drop being a wave 5 down. This rally looks just like a B wave should look, so the C wave down should certainly last longer in time then just a couple of days as the A wave down from the all time high took a month to play out.

In my opinion, the C wave down will start after April 4th (or 7th) and go deeper then just 5300, like 5000 or even 4900. It depends on how high we rally with the B wave, and right now the only thing I have for a target is the FP on the SPY of 586.86, which is roughly 5890 on the SPX and 5944 on the ES. Naturally the fake prints are always just targets that will be hit at some point in time. They commonly pierce through by some amount too, but he important thing to focus on is not the target but the time, as the high should happen on the 4th or 7th. If the FP is hit and pierced on that date then it's likely the end of the rally up and time for the C wave down to start. I won't be around tomorrow, so no post.

Have a great weekend.

Nothing has changed since Mondays post. Watching the market yesterday was like watching paint dry. While I don't know the "when" part I do think the market is going to hit the FP on the SPY (and pierce it of course). But I don't think it's going to be a straight line, and neither should this move. Since the next date for an expected low is around this Friday the 28th, or Monday the 31st, I'd have to think that's where we see a pullback from this rally, but I don't think it will be a lot.

Horizontal support will be around 5750 on the ES, which is where those prior two tops are at. Below that is the 5650 zone where the two bottoms happened from those same two tops. I doubt if we see that much of a pullback, but anywhere in that zone would be where I think we'll be at this coming Friday or Monday. Then we should get a big squeeze starting April 1st that last into the end of next week. Below is a chart with the possible wave count.

As for today and Thursday we could grind a little higher I guess, as we need to see the pullback start on Friday and end Monday I think. That move will probably be an ABC in a wave 2 down of C up... all inside a larger B wave up. Meaning the expected rally up starting April 1st (to the 4th) should be a wave 3, 4, and 5 inside a C wave, which once it ends so does the larger B wave up. From there, into the end of April (or early May) we should see the larger C wave happen, and of course it will have 5 waves inside it, and those waves will subdivide too.

Have a blessed day.

No sell off yesterday but instead a non-stop squeeze. I don't think the low is in but at this point it's looking like they plan on hitting the FP on the SPY at 486.86 before the next pullback happens. I really thought that FP would be hit in early April but I guess I was wrong? We did hit the 200 day SMA yesterday, so on the short term we should see a pullback from it. While I'd love to see it turn into a big dump most likely it won't be, and instead will just be a typical 38.2% retrace from the entire move up from Fridays low. At this point the only thing that could bring this market down hard is some "event" to trigger a big flush.

Have a blessed day.

I'm still looking for a retest of the current low and a pierce through it by some amount to happen this week. The market loves to tease both sides and then do a fast 1-2 day move, and that's exactly what could happen this week as well. The flush to make a lower low could happen any day this week and be finished in a day and a half.

This morning we have an unexpected breakout.  I did not see this happening, but possibly they plan on going to the new FP on the SPY first?  I was looking for it to be hit in the first week of April, after we make a low.  Bears need to reverse this rally asap... like today.  They need to make the daily candle have a topping tail on it if they plan on making a new low this week.

Nothing more to add here as I need to see happen by the close to see if the plans have changed or not.  Do the topping tail and the bears are still good.  If not, the the 586.86 is likely the target.

Have a blessed day.

Choppy light volume day yesterday, and with this week being a Quad Witching OPEX today could be the same. Overall it looks like the market is just waiting for the next reason to make a big move. While that upside FP on the SPY could be hit it's not supported in the cycles, which are bearish into the end of this month, and while we might just make a "higher low", double bottom basically, I still think they will pierce through the current low so a "Head" can be made for a likely "Head and Shoulders" pattern, where the late April low is a higher one that makes the "Right Shoulder". I still think the new FP posted yesterday will be the early April high, which will probably be a wave 1 up of some degree. And that means the expected higher low into late April will be the wave 2 pullback. That will setup a big rally for a wave 3, 4 and 5 into an August "blow off" top. Maybe that's the one that hits another FP I have that would be 6500+ on the SPX. Short term it's looking like the market is setting up a series of wave 1's down and wave 2's up before a nasty wave 3 happens sometime next week inside the final wave 5 down.

Have a great weekend.

So far, so good. The rally yesterday appears to have put in the top for the bounce of wave 4, and we should be starting wave 5 down next. I'll keep this update short as I've already covered everything in this weeks' posts. I will add that there's a new FP on the SPY yesterday, which I posted it on X already. I think it's the high for the next bounce in early-mid April, and that we go down first as planned. Here's that fake print...

Have a blessed day.

Today is the big day, and yesterday did "mostly" what I expected. We did get the pullback, which does look like an ABC, and the C down had 5 waves inside it. But it went a little deeper then I would have like to see, and there was no move back up into the close, so I have to remain open for another possibility, which is that the wave 4 up bounce ended at the recent high and it will not unfold in an ABC up, where the C wave would make a high up around 5800 or so (5850 new ES contract).

Instead the the next move up will make a lower high and would be the wave 2 bounce inside the wave 5 down. The move down yesterday would be the wave 1 in the wave 5 down. Today might be very tricky, so what I'll be looking for is to see what happen prior to 2pm EST, as "if" we get a strong move up, and then a pullback, I'll be open again to the C wave up inside wave 4 as covered yesterday.  (Below is yesterdays more bullish wave count again)...

But if we kinda of chop around waiting on the Fed, I'll then look for the wave 4 as being finished yesterday and a lower high for a wave 2 up inside a 5 down as being the wave count. I'll then look for a short as the move down afterwards would be a nasty wave 3 inside a 5, and that will be a strong one. The "trick" for SkyNet will be to suck all the bulls into thinking it's a breakout, so the wave 2 up (if this is the correct wave count) might retrace all the way back to within a point or so of the Monday high, and it might go right into the close. It will be tricky, that's for sure. But if we don't see a clean breakout move I'm a bear again and will look to short the retrace lower high.

Have a blessed day.

Well, the ES is rolling now from the March contract to the June one, and on my charts it already happened yesterday, so there's a 50+ point spread between it and the SPX cash now. This makes it confusing sometimes as I chart the ES but trade the SPX. I'm still looking for a pullback today, but I don't think we will see very much. Probably 30-40 points, but certainly not a move back down to the FP on the SPY of 551.49 as discussed yesterday.

The market is of course waiting on the FOMC tomorrow, so a slight pullback today is normal. We could see some very tricky moves after the 2pm meeting tomorrow, where we might drop at first to shake out the longs and then squeeze back up afterwards to reach the 5800 zone (SPX), which will be 5850+ on the new ES contract.

I expect it to be tricky as after the rally ends, which could carry into Thursday (depends on how much of a squeeze we get) the next move down into next week should hit that FP on the SPY at minimum, if not take out the low. I'm just in a "wait and see" mode right now as I can't take any position at this current spot. I need it higher to short or lower to go long.

Have a blessed day.

This week the most important event is the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. There are different paths the market can take but with the new FP on the SPY of 551.49 last Friday we at least know the pullback low price. The big question though is "when"? I posted an additional chart on X Friday showing a possible Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern that might form. That chart is below...

I think that is still very possible and likely to play out. Resistance overhead for today is around 5700 on the ES, and "if" we hit it today I think we can pullback into Tuesday (or early Wednesday) to hit the downside FP on the SPY and make the Right Shoulder. That's roughly around 5550 on the ES, and would be the perfect spot to suck in the last bear before a strong rally up to around 5800, and that probably will be from something the Fed says at the FOMC meeting.

It's possible I guess that we hit the target prior to the meeting but I lean toward it happening after the meeting, which is 2pm EST as usual. A one day squeeze into the close to 5800 to shake out the bears and lure in the bulls thinking the downside is over would be the perfect trick on both bulls and bears.

Then Thursday we rollover again and start the move down into next Monday or Tuesday for the low, which at minimum should be a double bottom but most likely we we take out the current low by some decent amount to hit the stops on the bulls trapped long. Meaning 5400 or even 5300 is possible (5440 and 5325 are support zones).

This is what I see for this week. As always the market loves to trick you, so my goal will just be to look for a hit of the downside FP on the SPY and if it happens before the FOMC I know there's a strong rally after it. Now if we rally to 5800 first then the downside FP would be the target for the expected pullback into the 24th/25th, but I don't lean that way. I just have to be open to whatever the market throws at me.

Have a blessed day.

Nothing has changed since yesterdays post. I'm not expecting another big drop until after we get a one day wonder squeeze, and that should still happen next week sometime. Currently we are in a bottoming formation for the first leg down, which could be called the A wave. The move up next will be the B wave, and I'm sure it will subdivide into an ABC, which the A could have 5 waves, the B 3 waves, and the C 5 waves, or a 535 rally up for the B, which should top mid next week. Then we should get the C wave down to the 5300 or lower level to end this correction for now.

Have a great weekend.

The market held support yesterday, so we have likely put in a temporary bottom. I think we are entering a period that is similar to 7/25/2024 to 7/31/2025, where that first low is equal to our current low. Now while I think it's similar nothing repeats exactly. However, the important thing that should repeat is that next week we should see a squeeze day up like 7/31/2025 did.

That should happen between next Tuesday to next Thursday. One of those days I'm looking for a squeeze up, which could hit the 200 day SMA, and that's around 5772 currently on the ES. That's the likely zone I believe, but the main thing to focus on is "time" and "the squeeze", as the next high should be between the 17th-19th next week. And we should have a big up day happen to shake out the bears.

Once it happens everyone should be calling for the low to be in and it's back to the bull market again. When this happens it's the last good short, which should feel like a crash as it's likely going to be a C wave, and similar to 7/31/2024 to 8/5/2024. As far as a target goes, I think we'll reach the 5300's, maybe pierce it? It should be finished by the end of next week or the Monday follow, so the 21st or 24th would be the target. Between now and then I'm personally just going to sit on my hands and wait for that one day squeeze, which again should be next week... and that's when I'll short the pig.

Have a blessed day.

We had a "pause day" yesterday as the market held the support line. We have the CPI today, so we could get a bounce if it's a good report. But I doubt if it lasts as there are a ton of trapped bulls in the market right now and the line in the sand for them is that support zone that we have stopped at yesterday.

If it breaks we could drop quite hard and fast several hundred points to one of the zones I talked about yesterday. Normally these levels hold and we bottom but the expected bottom isn't until the 14th, maybe the 17th. Then a bounce is expected before another drop into a low around the 25th, which could be a higher low or a lower low... I just don't know? If we take out the current support and drop hard into this Friday (or Monday) I'll have to think that the bounce and move down into the 25th will be a higher low. But it's too early to know that right now. Let's just see what happens after the CPI today, and more importantly, the close.

Have a blessed day.

I got yesterday completely wrong. I was looking for a bounce but it never came. We just continued to have steady selling all day long, and we still never had a capitulation move. This Friday (or Monday) is where the low is expected to be, but I have no idea what the price will be at? We are at support, but continue to go down steady, so for all I know we could crash into this Friday/

It's really unknown at this point. I had a FP on the SPY of 533.01 from last year, so maybe that's the target? And I had those crazy one's from the Yahoo site at the 483 zone. I mean, those are crazy levels to even think but until we get some type of massive drop to get the capitulation volume this market can continue to grind lower.

Have a blessed day.

Today is the day for the bulls to attempt to put in a bottom. They must take out the 3/4 and 3/5 prior highs, which is the 5880-5900 zone basically. I thought we might see that happen last week with a squeeze after the NFP Report but it didn't happen. Instead we dropped lower into a midday new low Friday before recovering some in a late day rally.

If that was an A wave then the sideways to slightly down pullback into the close would be the start of the B wave. Next we should see a C wave up, that that should be today, which is the bearish case and the entire ABC would be a wave 4 I believe, and that would leave a wave 5 down to the 5560-5580 zone still to come into the end of this week.

This is my lean as I just don't think the bulls can take out the overhead horizontal resistance today. If they can then we'd be starting a 5 wave rally up (larger wave 1), not an ABC corrective wave 4, but I don't think that's the case. My "best guess" is that we finish the ABC up for a wave 4 today, start wave 1 down of the final 5th wave into tomorrow.

Bounce back up some for the wave 2 by the close Tuesday, and then the CPI comes out Wednesday morning and we see the start of the wave 3 down inside wave 5, which should complete the wave 4 and 5 to end that larger wave 5 by this Friday. That entire 5 wave move down from the all time high will then complete a larger A wave.

Have a blessed day.

We sold off into the close yesterday as expected but I thought it would be just a wave 2 pullback, but instead we took out the low and made a new lower low. What's next? Here's what I posted in the free chatroom yesterday and I still think one or the other will happen.

"ONE is that we rip hard after the NFP Report at 8:30 am and open in the cash market with a big gap up. The top will be into Monday. Then we drop hard all week to bottom next Friday with 5500 possible. TWO is that we gap down hard (after the NFP Report) and hit the 5500's by midday or so tomorrow. Then we rip hard for many days afterwards (more then 2, but I don't know how long) with no bulls left and a ton of trapped bears. One of these paths is what I see."

I do not know which one will play out but if it's number ONE the rally will be short lived. Basically a squeeze into Monday and then we rollover again to hit the low-mid 5500's by the end of next week. Now if it's number TWO then I'd have to think the low is in for awhile, meaning any move back down next week should make a higher low.

In this case we'd see the low-mid 5500's today and a huge intraday reversal back up to close green. If we see this happen everyone will be massively bearish and will short every move up. While there will still be more pullbacks they should not take out the low from a flush of that amount today. Which one will it be? We'll know after the 8:30 am Non-Farm Payroll Report as that's where the reaction will determine the direction.

Have a blessed day.

Down early in the day and rally into late in the day repeated again yesterday as the market carves our a short term bottom before another move down. There was another FP on the SPY of 575.07 around 1:26 pm EST yesterday, which leads me to think we are in for some wild swings in both directions before we drop hard again. As I posted yesterday about the various upside FP's on the SPY I think we will see them hit and the downside one too. I just don't know the order at which this happens?

My best guess is that we go up to the 587.96 or 589.07 FP first (like today maybe?) and then down to the new 575.07 FP (Friday after Non-Farm Payroll?), followed by one last rally up into Monday to hit the highest FP at 594.22 on the SPY. That's a bunch of wild swings but keep in mind that the market loves to trick and trap both sides before another large trend move, which should be down hard into the end of next week.

I'm not interested in going against the trend, which is down right now of course. I'm more interested in shorting the rips to the FP's as I think we will see the 5500-5600 level hit on the next big drop. So, if we rally up today to at least the 587.96 FP I think it's a short to the 575.07 new FP, and from there we could (should) see another move up (how high I don't know?) which might go up to one of the higher FP's into Monday?

Hard too know for sure on that one, but if that happens it's another chance to short in my humble opinion. It's not easy when the market is in one of these modes but the next drop, which should start next week, is going to wipe out a ton of bulls.

Have a blessed day.

Another big flush yesterday, which got really close to hitting the 200 day SMA, and we bounced hard until 3:30 pm EST before another dump, but it was for a higher low. Ironically there was a FP on the SPY put out right before 2pm that pointed to that pullback low. So the market is telling everyone where the targets are at, but not the timing. Here's a chart of the SPY with the fake prints on it...

You can see the many FP's on the prior day as well, which I think will be targets for the rally today and/or tomorrow. I think we will see 589.07 today, then pullback some and then go for the 594.22 FP after that, which will probably be on Thursday. That should do it for the rally and Friday we should start down again. Target would be a retest of the low from yesterday but I don't see it hitting as fast as that move did.

Most likely it will have some up's and down's in it and the likely bottom will be mid next week. We have the CPI on Wednesday, so that could be it, or the government shutdown date on Friday? One or the other should put in the low and from the looks of the daily chart I don't expect to see it go much lower, which is why I lean toward a double bottom. The RSI is getting down there where we should get a nice multi-day rally, instead of just 1-2 day squeezes. We'll cross that road when we get there but I don't see a crash.

Have a blessed day.

WOW! I wasn't expecting that drop yesterday as I thought we bottomed a day early on Friday and that this March 3rd expected low was hit early, but some how they flushed it hard yesterday and put in a new low. To me, this extends the rally until This Wednesday where we could make a lower high then yesterday or a higher high, like to my 6040-6060 zone on the ES.

I'm not sure what's going to happen here but the market nailed the lower low on March 3rd and should be in a rally mode for a couple of days before rolling over again. Since that lower low took out the bulls that were long from Fridays low there should only be bears left and they should take shorts on every move up today.

So, "if" we retrace most of the drop from yesterday, and fail to put in a higher high, I tend to think that Wednesday we'll see a move up above Mondays high to hit the stops on the bears this time. That would setup a nasty drop the rest of the week... if this happens? I'm really tore here as the market tricked me with that drop, but maybe it's my own fault as I said for a week or more that the expected low as on the turn date of March 3rd, so I have to assume that we will rally up to take out the stops on the bears before we drop again, and that means we should top on Wednesday.

The drop reminds me of the 5/20/2022 drop, which was followed by a rally that took out the prior highs of 5/17/2022 and then a nasty drop followed in the next two weeks. This would be the drop into OPEX and/or the FOMC meeting 3/19/25, and/or the CPI on March 12th, so that's the window I think for the low.

And that low should take out the 200 day SMA, but for this to play out I do think we need to make another higher high then the high yesterday so that those bears miss the drop. This means we need to squeeze hard today and tomorrow and if we run those stops on the bears the market will be free to start down again into the next two weeks.

Have a blessed day.