We got a small pullback yesterday but then a late day squeeze came in and stopped horizontal support from breaking. This might continue all week long and turn the wave 4 pullback into a sideways correction, which will still be a valid wave but a frustrating one for any bears that are trapped or bulls wanting a pullback to get long at. It could also be just an A wave inside an ABC pullback for wave 4 that could still have a C down later this week to that falling white trendline of support.

This market feels more like it's just waiting for some kind of news event to rally higher (or sell off?), which might be this Thursdays Jobless Claims number or the Employment Situation on Friday (more commonly called the Non-Farm Payroll Report).

If we go into it with a low then I'd look for the NFP Report to cause another rally after it.   Of course if it's at a high into it then I'd look for a pullback.  Or, we go into it sideways, which would be the hardest to figure out.  I lean toward that happening as it will keep everyone guessing.  If that happen the market won't rally much from it most likely because it won't have pulled back first to get short term oversold.  I'd then look for 5850-5860 to hit the stops above 5830 to be the target.

Then we should reverse back down and start either the wave 4 that I'm looking for, which would be to the falling white trendline, or to start the big drop to possibly the FP on the SPY at 483 as the top "could" be in at that point?  There is no way to really know for sure on the move to 6000+ that many are looking for.  If we drop to the support zone, where the white falling trendline is at,  into next Monday or Tuesday it will be up to the Fed to say something positive on Wednesday the 9th at the reading of the September meeting.

Of course Powell and leak something out at any point really but the market will want to hear that they are doing more rate cuts to get going up strongly again with that 6000+ target in mind.  If they disappoint and say no more rate cuts the market will fall off a cliff and the top will be in I think.  Bottom line her is that I think we need more time to pass before it will finally exhaust itself.  Then a pullback should start of some degree.

Have a blessed day.

This week is where a pullback should happen, which might me late this week and carry into next week. But after that we should have one more way up to finish everything before we get a large pullback. This top could come before the end of this month or drag out right into the election, it's hard to say which. A lot will be determined by how much the coming pullback will be, which I guess it could be down to the 533.01 new FP on the SPY but that just seems too deep for the current wave count. I put that count out last week and below is that chart.

I have the wave 4 going down to that FP but again, I think that's too low. I don't see the falling white trendline breaking, which is around the 5630-5670 zone. I don't see any more then that as any deeper will kill the uptrend momentum, and that's about all you should see for a wave 4 down I think. So, if that white trendline holds, and I think it will, then we could see the last rally up end before the election I think, and I do think that's most likely. It just seems too obvious to top out right into the election as everyone is expecting it. A top in late October and drop into the election could get the A wave down out the way, and a B up after the election for a few days, then a C down into mid-late November. This is more common as it will trick the masses because a B wave up after a Trump win will make everyone think it's like 2016 when he won, but in reality it will just be a short lived bounce inside an ABC down.

For this week we might be choppy early on and the late this week we get some pullback, and again I don't see much more then the falling white trendline on my chart. I don't see this pullback as tradable and will just wait for that last move up later October for the best shorting opportunity.

Have a blessed day.

Today is the last day of the bullish cycle on the daily period. It's been in a bearish cycle on the weekly period for awhile now but that takes time to align up with the daily period, and that's coming next week. Just like small, medium and large waves there are periods of bullishness and bearishness of larger and smaller degrees.

The weekly bearish period cycle takes awhile to really get going and it's not really started yet. The "cycle" is bearishly aligned but since the daily cycle is still bullish the market can drag out into late October or even early November if they really do plan on hitting that 6000+ I spoke of yesterday. That's really impossible to know for certain but I want to keep it as "possible" going into October.

AskSlim did a great job of showing how we could pullback into early October and then bounce back up for a lower high (his thoughts) into mid-late October and then do the larger drop late next month or November.  Here's his video...

The Speculation...

What I'll be looking for is how fast the coming pullback happens. If it's really fast, which spikes the VIX, then that should wake up the bears and cause a ton of them to pile in short, which if that is at the 533.01 FP on the SPY, where two trendlines of support are at... I could then see another new high. The next Fed date is 10/9, which is just a reading of the minutes from the September meeting, but sometimes they give out new breadcrumbs of what's coming in the future.

I would not be shocked if Powell mentions another .50 cut is coming at the November meeting. If he says that then that will be the fuel needed for the rally to 6000+ as the market "front runs" the event. Then when it happens at the 11/7 meeting the market tops and tanks afterwards. But if the market declines in a slower manor in the beginning the bears will keep buying it (and the bulls) thinking there's another higher high coming into the election.

If that happens there should not be another higher high and we should be going down to my yahoo FP of 483 on the SPY. It's really a tough call here to figure out but I'm leaning toward the 6000+ move because of how the Fed's seem to be trying super hard to keep the market up into the election for the Demoncrats. Then we tank after Trump wins (I pray he does), and they get to blame it all on him, which of course it won't be his fault but they will say it is anyway.

Back to the Technicals...

Another reason I'm starting to think it's possible that 6000+ happens into the elections is that the weekly (and daily) charts need to get a little more overbought in my opinion. It's more of a gut feel based on past technicals as the monthly chart has reached the overbought level with it popping its' head over the 70 level on the RSI yesterday to hit 72.20 or so. I don't know if it's going to hold up into next Monday when the month closes or not but it's there now, so this market is very close now rolling over and starting another recession like 2022.

Of course the monthly time frame is not used to pick an exact date for the final top but it is suggesting that we are near the end of the bull market since the 2022 low. We could easily extend into November before it does, so it's important to remain open. The pattern looks a lot like the 2022 top right now, which stands out like a sore thumb I think.

Every trader must see it so I don't know how they can repeat it exactly. In fact if it did repeat the first move down would be to the 483 FP before any strong bounce. Maybe it happens, who knows? But it's so obvious to me right now that I just can see them making it that simple.

Have a great weekend.

So I've been thinking about what would be the trickiest move by the market in the coming weeks and what that would consist of is a sharp pullback next week that just traps the bears before another big squeeze that goes up to my old FET's of 6082.46, 6189.54 or 6009.50 into the election. This would surprise everyone looking for an October crash and dump the market on Trump if he wins. Biden will take credit for the move up the last several years and Trump will be blamed for the coming recession. It's the perfect trick on the bears in the coming weeks and I really think it's got some pretty good odds of playing out like this. Let's look at the wave count now...

As you can see on the chart above the coming pullback would be a small wave 4 inside medium 5 up of large 5 up. The 5th wave can go to any level, which could reach my FET's around 6000+ into November. On previous wave counts I still had this labeled the same but I had the small 4 down as a short lived and small (in points) pullback, with the small 5 up to mid-5800 or so. Here's the old chart from 9/6 showing it.

The market followed that chart pretty good but I think we could see a bigger pullback for small wave 4, which would then setup the bulls for a more powerful squeeze to follow for small wave 5 up. I was sent this new FP below on 9/24, which points to 533.01 on the SPY, and that would be about 400 points down on the ES/SPX for this small wave 4 down. It would be the perfect trap on the bears before one more last rally up.

If this happens, and I do think the odds are high that it can play out like this, then I must respect this scenario and NOT get overly bearish when this FP is hit. If the short term charts are oversold enough at this point then I must be ready for that big squeeze to follow.

Have a blessed day.

I didn't write a post yesterday as there was nothing to add that wasn't covered on Mondays post. Same thing for this post as nothing is going on but sideways chop, which of course makes another bull flag. But, the "time" is running out for the bullish period as by the end of this week it will be over with from a cycle point of view and then the market will enter a bearish period.

So it doesn't really matter to me if the bulls breakout again from this bull flag and run a little higher as their time is coming to an end soon. Maybe we get that last squeeze higher tomorrow after the Jobs numbers and/or GDP, and then Powell speaks at 9:20 am too, so he might try to lift the market higher? It's a bull flag building so all it really needs is a spark to get it to pop but I don't think it will last past the end of this week, and if it happens it will just be another "better entry" spot to get more shorts.

Have a blessed day.

This market is likely going to hold up into the end of this month and grind higher. I thought we might have topped last week but there's still too much "time" left before the bullish period turns to a bearish period. It could drag out into early October a little too, but that's about when the bullish time period (cycle) ends and the bearish coming in play. Any early pullback this week will likely be reversed as the bulls are still in control for another week and early next week. They never make this easy (shocker... LOL), but I still think we will get a nasty drop before the election. It might not even start though until the second half of October. But weakness will start to come into the market by mid-month. Let's zoom out and look at the big picture...

On the SPX weekly chart are my long term thought. I believe we are going to have an ABC correction into 2025 which is a wave 4 of a much larger degree with the wave 3 up starting at the 2022 low. The final high for the wave 5 should be in late 2026 or early 2027. At that point we will see another 1929 style crash. For the now though the first A wave down of the wave 4 should hit my FP from the Yahoo site back in March of this year. It's 483 on the SPY, which of course should be pierced and then I think the A wave is done. From there I think we rally up 50%+ for the B wave into the end of the year, and that will be followed by the C wave down in the first quarter of 2025. I'd look for the 200 week simple moving average to be hit and pierced but the 2022 low should NOT be taken out. My guess is at least 61.8% up to 78.6% will be the retrace low from 2022 low up to the current all time high. Now let's look at the daily chart below...

The daily chart above shows you my thoughts going into the end of this year and early 2025. For the short term this week still has a bullish bias to it, so I don't expect to see much happen but chop. We could pullback any day this week for a brief shakeout but afterwards it should go back up again. The 5800 level (and a pierce through it) on the ES is like a magnet for the bulls. We could see 5820-40 hit in a blow off move into this Friday or next Monday as the month closes out. After that we should start to see the early parts of the expected correction for the A wave start. It would be the wave 1's and 2's of course and might be tricky that first week of October. Then mid-late month is when I'd expect to see the wave 3, 4 and 5 of the A wave down take us to the 483 SPY FP.

Lastly, on the very short term, there was an intraday FP on the QQQ that should be the target low for any pullback this week. That's an exit for trapped shorts I think, and I'd wait for the last squeeze to 5800+ into the end of this month before attempting to short again. Here is that FP, which is basically targeting the closing area last Wednesday.

Have a blessed day.

We hit my zone of 5775-5800 on the ES, so we could have topped? If we go any higher it shouldn't be very much, like a 10-20 points... "Maybe".  Most likely though we pullback some, and while it might be choppy at first I expect the August 5th low to be tested (probably taken out) by the end of October.

The beginning will be full of drops and squeezes for the wave 1's and 2's (or A's and B's) as it sets up the C down later next month. Meaning next week might start the pullback but it could reverse back up again late in the week to setup early October as the best time for a big drop.  As for today, I don't have much opinion as it's OPEX and could go dp anything.

Have a great weekend.

We got really close yesterday to the 5775-5800 zone that I was looking for on the ES, but it miss by a little.  Now this morning we've hit the zone, so this should be it for the rally I think. My thoughts are that we'll hold up in this range until the end of the week.  Remember that most OPEX weeks are choppy or bullish as they need to make all the puts expire worthless they tend to hold the market up until that happens.

Tops are a process and take their time to complete and then out of nowhere a nasty drop happens. I think it starts next week for the first leg in it, which could end by the end of this month where "turns" commonly happen at. Then a bounce the first week of October and mid-late October is where the really nasty drop happens.

Have a blessed day.

Well, today is the big day where most everyone is expecting the Fed to lower interest rates by at least 0.25%, possibly 0.50%. Will they do it or will they shock the market and do nothing... or worst, raise them! I don't know the answer of course but the market has made new highs on the ES and SPX and the DOW too.

But not on the Nasdaq futures or cash, nor the Russell. So there's divergences forming now between the indexes and I don't see them making a higher high anytime soon. As for what will the Fed do today... I don't know. But the rally up into the meeting scares me there's a ton of people looking for this rate cut and are expecting much higher prices afterwards. When the masses are all thinking the same thing I have to think it's not likely going to happen. Can we go higher afterwards? Sure but I don't see a run up to 6000+ like I previously thought was possible.

Maybe we get a squeeze to 5800 but then again... maybe they surprise everyone and the market tanks. Most of the time the Fed doesn't ever do anything to shake up the market, so if things go as "usual" then it will be a non-event and we'll continue to grind higher until the daily chart gets too overbought. Right now it's not and can push higher, but the weekly chart is still bearish, so any move up from here will be similar to paddling upstream in a canoe... meaning it's not going to see big 200-300 points moves in a few days, but it can go up a little more.

Here's my main wave count from 9/6 and it could still play out... but I don't see 6000 as that's too high and too predictable.

So, assuming there's no surprise by the Fed, I think we are going to need more time before this market rolls over.  This looks like it could drag out into the end of the month.  Possible we squeeze to around 5800 and then pullback a few hundred points into the end of the month.  Then rally back up one more time for a lower high into early October, which would be a wave 2 with the first pullback a wave 1 down.  Then we see a 10%+ drop later that month.  That's my thought on it.

Have a blessed day.

Just a hair until the July high now on the ES, so it looks likely that it will pierce through it to run some stops.  But I must point out that the market is still waiting on the FOMC tomorrow so we should not get any big moves until then.

And speaking of the meeting, the herd is expecting a 0.25 rate cut with a possibility of it being 0.50, which is part of the run up into it as people front ran the rumor.  It smells of a trap to me as if the masses all think the same thing what happens if they are wrong?  I mean... what if they don't do any rate cut, or cut more then 0.50?  I'm simply trying to take the other side of the herd and something is off here in my opinion.

Let's not forget the short term technicals that are now overbought with the weekly chart bearishly aligned and pointing down.  The daily is mixed so it's not giving any clues, which means it's just the short term right now and the weekly chart that is in focus.

Nothing really to do right now as we wait on the Fed tomorrow.  It's very possible that it will be a "sell the news" event.

Have a blessed day.

We are up against resistance from the falling white trendline and the horizontal prior highs around 5660-5670, so there's not much to do right now but wait until the FOMC this Wednesday and see where we are at. Too me, if we are still up in this range, meaning we don't pullback much, I have to think it's a sell the news event. If we pullback in front of it, to say 5550 or lower, then I'd look for some last rally into this Friday to attempt to make a new high again... but I really don't think we will get through it.

I feel like this market is setting up for a surprise crash like drop starting next week that no one will see coming. Others think we'll top out into mid-October but I just don't see it. I could be wrong but I think a big surprise is coming, and well before the November election. Not much more to add at this point as we wait on the FOMC.

Have a blessed day.

Moving up as expected, but we are getting close to major resistance again. We should NOT get through it on the first attempt, and we might not ever get through... who knows for sure? I move focused on "when" then "price", and I still think that we will have a last squeeze up after the FOMC next Wednesday. The price isn't something I can forecast.

Short term though the charts are getting extended on the upside, so while many Friday's have that bullish late day move it might get skipped today? Then next Monday and/or Tuesday is where I'd expect to see some kind of pullback in front of the FOMC. After the meeting though I think we get a squeeze that could pierce the current all time high, or fall shy a little and lure everyone into thinking the bottom is in.

But the technicals just don't support it from what I see. We could have some surprise event over the weekend of the 21st/22nd that would cause a "gap down and go" move... like a dollar revaluation possibly? I don't know what the event will be but something big is very likely to happen before the election, and I think it starts the week of the 23rd.

Have a great weekend.

P.S.  A friend sent me this video this morning...

While I can't disagree I tend to think we look like 2011.  Here's the charts...

The 2011 Chart...

The 2024 Chart...

We got the pullback I was looking for yesterday, which turned out to be a higher low, which is fine for a truncated 5th wave down inside wave 1 down, inside wave C down. While the squeeze up afterwards looks and feels like a wave 3 or C (and it could be?) I lean toward it just being wave A up inside 2 up of C down. Now... if this wave count is correct then this wave A up should have a B down at some point in the next few days. Or it goes sideways for a day or two, which will also qualify as a B wave pullback. Then next week we get the C wave up inside wave 2 up of wave C down. Here's that wave count, which again is called my Alternative Wave Count.

Now my Main Wave Count is pretty similar except that a new all time high would happen into the end of next week. The wave count would change a little but the end result would still be a large crash like drop would follow later this month. If a new high is made the C wave drop would just be delayed until October and the A wave would happen the week of the 23rd, which would likely bottom at the end of the month where we'd get a B wave up for several days around the first of October. It would then have the large crash like drop into the middle of the month or so. Here's that wave count.

While I'm still labeling the lower high scenario as the Alternative Wave Count, which means my lean is for a new all time high for the Main Wave Count, I can't overlook the 666 code that suggests the high is in now... at least for the SPX cash. Maybe the ES futures makes a slightly higher high but the cash doesn't? That's possible for sure. But either wave count points to a high at the end of next week.

Have a blessed day.

We could see some movement today as the CPI is out, so that could move it up or down. Then tomorrow we have the jobs number, which again could move the market. I don't have any foresight on which way it will go but I still think we'll have one more pullback before a rally into next Friday. My guess is that we are choppy until next Wednesday when the FOMC happens. So we might do some wave A up and B down in front of it and the C up happens afterwards, which would complete wave 2 up inside C down. That's all I see for now.

Have a blessed day.

A lot of nothing yesterday, which is to be expected. There's not much to add here as we could retest the low again, meaning last Friday was some small degree of a wave 3 and yesterday was a wave 4 bounce. If that's correct then we could see another drop for a wave 5 to finish this leg down, and then we rally next week for that wave 2 up inside wave C down.

Do we have to have another move down first? No, it could have been finished last week but usually there's a retest of the low for at least a higher high but usually a slightly lower low. Either way there's nothing to do in my opinion until the end of next week where I think we'll see the best short of our lifetime.

If the market crashes the week of 9/23 into October no one will see it coming but the insiders. Whether or not we do a reset in the currency is unknown but there's a lot of technical reasons to suggest a nasty drop too. Below is another video from Bo Polny that again points to that week. I see in the technicals, so something is coming...

Have a blessed day.

Today I'm going to go over the possibility that the market could have already topped. I do not lean this way though as the prior patterns and technicals really don't support it, but I'll cover it anyway. Let's look a the chart below...

Now while that chart does have a lot of things that seem to align up with the January 2022 high I want to go a little deeper and look at other things that point to another higher high coming after we get a lower low, double bottom, or higher low then the August 5th 2024 low... but the large "crash like" drop that could play out in October or November would be delayed until a new high happens first. Meaning we'd have another rally up to higher high again before we rollover for that "crash style" drop. Let's examine the chart below...

One of the biggest things that supports this is the fact that we are no where near the 200 day simple moving average currently, which back in February of 2022 that drop for the smaller wave 3 (and the smaller wave 1) was under the 200 SMA. When I study that weekly chart of the past we currently appear to be similar to the 12/15/21-12/20/21 pullback. While the market never repeats exacts the patterns do "rhyme" and I tend to think that's where we are right now. If so, then we have one more higher high coming before we drop like 2022 did.

Now let's look at another interesting clue on the monthly chart below...

Again, while the market never repeats exactly the technicals still suggest to me that there's one more higher high coming before we start a much larger drop, which could be similar to 2022 or follow some other prior correction like 2020 or 2018 even. That's too hard to forecast, so let's just focus on the short term for now.

Lastly let's look at the weekly chart below...

When you examine the daily, weekly and monthly chart all the technicals point to another recession coming soon in the market, which should carry into early 2025 from everything I can see. Only another fast crash like 2020 prevent the first quarter of 2025 from being bearish as otherwise this market is going to need 4-6 months to cool down the very overbought conditions on the monthly and weekly charts.

Have great weekend.

We got pretty much what I expected yesterday... chop. I still don't see anything bullish on the short term as the weekly chart is certainly in favor of going lower, and the daily chart could go deeper too. But price really isn't something that is easy to forecast. The technicals just suggests that this market isn't oversold enough to start a strong rally up to new all time highs again.

It looks like it should drag out into next week from what I see, but that doesn't mean it's going to go a lot lower. It just means that the upside rallies should not break the prior lower highs in that 5650-5670 zone. So if we get a decent rally up this Friday I don't see that zone breaking as it's strong resistance right now.

And on the downside there shouldn't be much left for today because the short term charts are getting close to turning back up from being oversold. I think we get some more weakness today but by Friday we rally up higher to try and hit the 5650-5670 zone. It might drag into next Monday but if it happens I'd still be bearish and look for another move lower later into next week. Because the bearish period has so much "time" left I do think we'll get some kind of ABC down before we end my wave 4, which will setup OPEX week for the start of wave 5 up.

Have a blessed day.

Boy, when the market decides it's ready for a pullback it really delivers. I was looking for yesterdays move to be drawn out over 3-5 days as that's the period of expected weakness, but yesterday was a nasty drop and has pretty much hit my target zone.

So, with more "time" left the market could go lower, but we are oversold on the short term. So I suspect there is little left on the downside before a bounce, but we might not see the low for this move until this Friday or early next week when this weakness people ends. If yesterday was an A wave then we should have a B up start soon, like possibly today. Many B waves are drawn out in time and full of traps for bulls and bears both, so it could last into this Friday?

If so then I'd look for the C down to happen into early next week to complete the wave 4, and it could drag out into next Thursday if it wants to fool the most. There's a lot of "time" left for this bearish window, and while it should be finished by next Monday or Tuesday I wouldn't be shocked to see it linger into Thursday. I don't have a target for the low but with so much time left I have to think we could reach 5400, which is roughly the 50% retrace level.

On another note, I want to put this out there as it just came to my mind yesterday. I was just thinking about those 2 Yahoo FP's from March and April this year, which were point to the 483 on the SPY. It reminded me of the 2018 FP that I found on February 27th, which was an upside fake print then. It took until September 20th of that year before it was hit, and it pierced by just 4 cents on the SPY.

Here's that old chart...

So what if that Yahoo downside FP takes about the same amount of time to get hit? It was roughly 7 months (205 days to be exact), so what is 205 days from the first FP on March 1st, 2024? It is September 22nd, 2024, which if I'm wrong on this pullback being just a small one before a larger rally (meaning we keep dropping), I'm going to be looking for that 483 FP to get hit around that date.

I don't expect this pattern to repeat though as I have NO prior history of such things happening. But the FP's "do" get hit at some point in time. So for now I'm just sticking with a small pullback and then another rally up into the end of this month or earlier October. Everything looks to me like we'll drop hard into the election, and if we get up to "just under 6000" prior to then, a drop to hit the FP on the SPY would be a very nice drop and totally possible. Just food for thought.

Have a blessed day.

I hope everyone had a good holiday weekend... I know I did. I enjoyed just taking a nap on my swing on the porch was the hot weather has broke and it was pretty comfortable outside in the shade. Moving on... this week will be a short one since the market was closed yesterday.

We did not breakout and make a new all time high into the end of the month but we did close out near the higher range, and I've pointed out many time that the market will commonly produce "turns" around the end of any given month. Since we were up near a high it suggests we will turn down this week, but I still don't think we are ready for a big drop. Most likely we'll just see the right shoulder created that I've talked about many times last week as likely.

I still think a new all time high is coming before the bigger drop, so if we get a pullback this week it's likely just a buying opportunity before another rally into mid-late September. It's very possible that we reach my FET on SPX and/or ES before we finish this strong multi-month rally. In fact, it's looking like we could bottom for that bigger drop in late October right before the November election.  Here's a chart...

Have a blessed day.