A choppy day yesterday as the market is carving out the wave 4 bounce and wave 5 down to complete the C wave. We might see a little more chop for a few days but the down move should be finishing up here soon and then we'll see the Santa Rally that should take the SPX back up to a slightly higher high before the end of the year. Today is Friday and typically there's a late day move up, but might not see it do the biggest squeeze until after Christmas, hard to say for sure. Possibly we see some kind of series of wave 1's up and 2's down play out in the next few days to setup the wave 3 up after Christmas, which will be inside a bigger wave 5 of course. I'll start charting the March Contract of the ES next week as the December one is over with now.

Have a great weekend.

WOW! That was one crazy drop yesterday! I talked about a "fake out" move yesterday and I certainly wasn't expected one that big. I wanted a last move up for a higher high to short but was open for a move down instead, which is what we got. I did not short it as I just didn't know which way it was going to go.

But now that we've seen the big flush I think we are going to see a final rally start today (maybe Friday?) that will last until the end of the month (maybe sooner?) where this entire move down is erased and we put in a new higher high... but not the DOW, just on the SPX/ES (probably the Nasdaq too but I'm positive).

I'm looking for 6120-6140 on the SPX into the end of this year and that will be the final top before we fall off a cliff for real, and the first downside target will be the 533.01 FP I suspect, maybe lower? As for today, I'm looking for a double bottom test as it's pretty clear that yesterday was a wave 3 down inside a C wave of some degree.

We just need the wave 4 up (which started yesterday after the low) and the wave 5 down to finish it. Then it's up, up and away into the end of the year. I'm looking for a long today, and bummed that I missed the short but that's life.

Have a blessed day.

Up, down, up, down, but going nowhere... that's the market of the last week or so. A big move is coming, but I don't know if it's an up move or down move? With the FOMC at 2pm EST the market should remain in a zone until after the meeting.

My thoughts are the following...

Scenario ONE: The market rips higher after the FOMC and closes the day near the high with some kind of 100+ point move.  Basically it just takes out the 6111 prior high (December contract) by at least 20 points it's a stop run basically.  Ideally we hit 6166 for the ritual number play, which today is also a ritual number day.  But that's not required.

Scenario TWO: The market flushes down into the close after the meeting (how much I don't know... 100 points?) and that puts in the bottom for any correction we've been in since the 12/6 high if 6111 (December ES contract). Then we rally back up for another week or so to reach 6150+ (probably 6200+) as if we do flush lower the final high should be pushed out for another few weeks... meaning we could see the Santa Rally after all.

I want to see Scenario ONE so I can short the pig but I don't usually get what I want. So I have to be on the lookout for Scenario TWO as a flush-out drop lower first as a fake out move and then a final rally up afterwards in the coming few weeks. Bottom line here is that whichever way the market goes first, after the FOMC and into the close, the opposite direction is the next likely true trend move.

Have a blessed day.

While the ES has now rolled to the March contract I'm going to continue referring to the December contract for right now. Just add 70+ points to get the targets for it. Ok, so Monday we had a nice rally up as expected and if all goes well we will continue higher into a blow off top this Wednesday (most likely). Here's a chart below of what I think is possible...

As you can see this final move up can happen this week. It will then produce a pullback into Christmas that will be the early part of the expected drop to the 533.01 FP on the SPY. It will unfold in an ABC of course and the A and C waves will have 5 waves inside them. What I think we will see is the wave 1 down and 2 up (the Santa Rally) inside the A wave down.

Then January will have some nice swings in it as the wave 3, 4, and 5 of the A wave down plays out, then the B wave squeeze (probably in front of the inauguration on the 20th) and the C down afterwards and into early February. It could play out much faster of course but that's what I see right now.

Have a blessed day.

This most important thing this week is the FOMC on Wednesday, so between now and then we might continue to be rangebound between the all time high and the recent pullback low, which might extend down to 6000 or so. Overall though a hundred point range is a tight one and should lead to a breakout of the zone soon.

I think we'll see one more higher high but I'm not looking for 6300+ at this point. Maybe it's just a few points higher, or even up to 6200, but I don't see much more. It's reminding me a lot of the 2020 high, at least from a pattern point of view. Now I doubt if it follows that move again but it might rhyme with it in some manor.

Back then the first drop was just under 16% and if it followed exactly from the current all time highs that would be equal to 5190 on the ES and 5133 on the SPX. Interestingly my FP on the SPY of 533.01 would put them both around 5400, which would not be a 16% drop but it would be similar for sure. The market never repeats some prior move exactly but it does repeat prior patterns, and that's the pattern I currently see the market the closest too.

Again though, it's all just speculation until we seem a real break to the downside start. It could be right after the FOMC, especially if we get a pop higher on that day which fades small on Thursday and Friday with the high being put in on Wednesday. Then the week after we see a surprise drop happen that shocks everyone. Currently this is just a dream but the market loves to surprise everyone, so don't be shocked if we see a big drop happen before the end of this year.

NOTE:

We are rolling into the March 2025 contract now on the ES, which the December 2024 contract is about 5-6 higher then the SPX cash.  The March 2025 ES contract is now 70 points higher then the December 2024, which is about 75 points higher then the SPX cash.  This makes it hard to keep track of the levels but on this post I'm referring to the December prices.

So with a 75 point spread and gap up on the March contract this will open the door for 6200+ on it, but keep in mind that the SPX will be 75 points lower.

Have a blessed day.

We got a pullback yesterday but it was for a higher low, not the C wave down for a lower low that I wanted. But the market rarely gives you want you want. The volume is just too light for any big drop to happen it seems, but that won't last forever. It's the holidays and traders are gone early as we go into Christmas. I posted a chart on Twitter yesterday, and below is that chart.

As you can see the market is setting up for a wave 3 up inside a wave 5 (most likely) and it should take us to new all time highs. The market always has the option to chop sideways to work off short term overbought charts instead of doing a deep pullback, and that's pretty much what it's been doing now since the all time high a week ago. Assume the low from 12/10 holds, and I think it will, we should start a wave 3 up that could finish by mid-late next week.

On the chart I drew the wave ending next week and a small pullback for the wave 4 into Christmas with the Santa rally afterwards being the wave 5 to another new all time high. But it doesn't have to play out like that. We could see the wave 3,4, and 5 complete next week to put in the final high. Then the small pullback into Christmas and the Santa rally will carve out a wave 1 down and 2 up of a bigger A wave down.

That wave 2 up would then make a lower high into the end of the year, which might look like a double top. It will setup January for a wave 3 down inside an A down of an ABC move that will unfold in the first quarter 2025. The entire ABC of course will be the bear market that everyone is looking for and putting out crazy predictions of 60% or more down. I don't know how low it will go and that's pointless to try and figure out anyway. I can hardly figure out the next week or two, let alone the entire year. Anyway, if we reach 6150+ into next week we could be finished on the upside.

But shorting that first high probably won't offer much on the downside as again, the first move down will just be a wave 1 inside an A wave and I think a better short will be the first of January after we see the wave 2 back up for the lower high. If it turns out to be a higher high then so be it. It will then complete the wave 5 up in the chart and from there we'll start the wave 1 down inside A down. What we might see is that the SPX cash makes a lower high into the end of the year and the ES futures makes a slightly higher one. I say that because after next week is over with the ES will be on the March contract, which will be 50-60 points higher then SPX cash, and currently the December contract of the ES is just about 10 points higher, so they are quite close.

Anyway, as for today I don't have anything to add. The short term technials are working off their overbought conditions and getting short term oversold, so a powerful move up should start soon and last into next week.

Have a great weekend.

The market rally as I thought it would but it went higher then I expected. In fact, the Nasdaq put in a new all time high while the SPX/ES got really close. The DOW went down so this is a clear case of sector rotation with no strength or volume behind it. But, that also means the downside is very limited so it's not looking good for my thoughts of a C wave down into the 5900's happening in the coming days.

Of course it doesn't mean we can't pullback some as the short term technicals just don't support another big squeeze higher today and/or Friday to 6150+ for some blow off top. What seems most likely is some back and forth movement over the next several days (or more) to keep the market in a range of "below the all time high" and "above last weeks' low".

We could take out the 6039.75 low I guess but I don't see any really strong C wave down happening. It might look like the 8/19 to 8/28 period where there was a lower low put in (on 8/28) but it wasn't that deep. It would be like down to 6000 "maybe" now? If it follows that period then today will be choppy and Friday will be like the 8/28 day.

Or it could play out like the 10/14 to 10/23 period where again there was a lower low but not a lot. The 10/30 and 10/31 drop was a good sized one, which would be like going into the low 5900's as I suggested in yesterdays post. It's still possible I guess but it has much lower odds now that we've put in a higher high on the Nasdaq as that really decreased the chances of a deeper drop.

Have a blessed day.

On the short term the market is close now to getting oversold on the RSI for the 6hr chart, which if we just look at it we should be bottoming soon. Now the daily is no where near done as it's pointing down but up near the top range on its' RSI... however, it could turn back up if the 6hr gets oversold enough and turns. The MACD is similar as well and could bottom today if we go lower.

The CPI is out before the open so we could get a flush out lower to get oversold, or we could bounce from it and delay the RSI from reaching oversold and push it out into the future a few days from now. I'd then call the pullback an ABC move as I doubt if the CPI can be viewed so positive that it will just race off to 6150+, but I guess anything is possible?

I lean toward a little more downside to get nice and oversold on the RSI so that the squeeze back up can be stronger and therefore reach the 6150+ target... but I just don't think 6020-6030 will be enough.  I think we need to go lower then that, which would suggest we get a move up after the CPI to stop the RSI from reaching oversold.  Then another move down later (next week) into the low 5900's.  Basically an ABC move, not a one wave decline.  Below is that chart...

This is all based on the technicals of course and excludes anything crazy happening that shocks the market. I can see market rotation right now as Telsa was up nicely yesterday with the ES/SPX down, so it doesn't seem likely that the market has topped out yet, but I don't think the pullback is finished either.

While I'm still on guard for something happening to shock the market and cause the big drop to the FP on the SPY this current move down since Monday is not suggesting that "this" is it. The technicals suggest we will go back up soon but we might not reach another new high yet and still have one more move lower into OPEX or even drag it out into Christmas?

Have a blessed day.

We finally got the pullback started yesterday, but now what? Will we get that one more rally up to 6150+ that everyone is looking for (including me), or is this the start of the decline to the FP of 533.01 on the SPY?

When I look around at many different places I see everyone super bullish here as they are looking to buy this move down, so I have to wonder... will it turn back up and give everyone that big rally, or do we continue lower and lower and lower until they all turn into bears?

I don't know the answer here as the market is super sneaky, which is why very few people ever catch a big drop. But I must be open minded here for the top being in for now and that we are heading to the FP over the next week or two.  That doesn't mean the final top is in as after the pullback is over with we could still see another higher high in January.

Nothing more to add as I'm just in a wait and see mode right now.

Have a blessed day.

More Ritual Number Codes...

Back in time on 03/06/09 the SPX Cash put in a bottom at 666.89 and that ended the bear market that started in 2007. The date was even a hidden 666 code as 3+6+9=18, and 18 is 6+6+6. Fast forward to now we've had several new 666 codes put on various days but none of the days also had the 666 in it too. There's the first one below...

The date on that one though was not a 666 day as 12/3/24 is 3 (1+2), and 3 and 6 (2+4)=12, which is "at best" 6+6, but not a hidden 666 code.  So "if" the satanists are going to match the 2009 low in both the "price code" and the "date code" they didn't do it with that one, which is likely why we skipped it went higher in the coming days.  Next was...

Same thing for this one as the "date code" is missing as 12/04/24 is 3 (1+2), and 4 and 6 (2+4)=13, and that number can't make anything even close to a 666.  But they certainly are throwing out signals that it's coming and that one should be paying close attention for it.  After that we got another one the next day, but the on the SPY...

The problem again is that it's missing the "date code" as 12/05/24 is 3 (1+2), and 5 and 6 (2+4)=14, so another miss there as well.  Then the next day on the SPX they put out a hidden 666 code...

This one has a date of 12/06/24 is 3 (1+2), and 4 and 6 (2+4)=15, which 1+5=6, but that's still not a true 666 code in my opinion.  We need to see 18 again like in 2009, which can happen on 2 days this month.  One is today, 12/09/24 as 12/09/24 is 3 (1+2), and 9 and 6 (2+4)=18, which is 6+6+6.  The other day is 12/18/24, which is the next FOMC meeting.  It is my belief that it will be then and not today.

What will the price be you ask?  I'd look for numbers like 6166 or 6266 on the ES as a spike high or closing price, or SPX, which would make the ES higher of course as it's currently about 11 points more the the cash and getting closer as time passes.

The roll into the next quarterly contract of the ES is this coming OPEX here in December, which on some platforms it rolls early but on my Think or Swim it will do it on the 20th, which will put the spread about 55 points higher on the ES with current calculations for the next March contract (subject to change).

But if I'm right the top will already have been put in on the 18th and the market will be going lower afterwards.  This is setting up for a nasty Christmas if we see a crash like drop start, which I think we will.  The FP on the SPY for 533.01 is still my downside target for the low of the move.  Then we rally into January with the big retrace.

Have a blessed day.

A nothing day yesterday, but signs of exhaustion are there. The pullback should be starting soon, but again, it won't likely be very much. The FP on the QQQ would suggest we'll go back down to the Thanksgiving level, which is a normal retrace in an uptrend. Somewhere in the 6020-6040 range is about what the FP's is pointing too, and it might happen today and/or into next Monday.

After that we go up again but it should not be some huge squeeze to 6300+ as I don't see that as possible now.  I'm just looking for one more slightly higher high to end it, like maybe the 6150 zone?  Not a lot above the current high and it should be a non-event, meaning it won't be some spike around some event.

I posted this chart on Twitter yesterday, which is a best guess but might be the plan

https://x.com/reddragonleo/status/1864705489784668186

Have a great weekend.

The grind higher continued yesterday with no signs of a turn yet.  The window for a top and turn has passed in my opinion and at this point I only see a small pullback into next week before we grind back up again for either another new higher high or a double top.  It will push this out into late December from the looks of things but it will depend on how much of a pullback we get and how long it takes.  I have some like targets for it, which are below...

That FP on the SPY wouldn't be much of a pullback but it's roughly 40 points down on the ES/SPX from the current high (4 SPY points).  I suspect that will be an A wave down in an ABC pullback as we know that trapped bears will sell on the first pullback and bulls that missed the long will buy it.  Naturally the market never makes it that easy so another drop should follow after a bounce back up for a lower higher for the B wave.  That second low will likely be the FP I see on the QQQ on the chart below...

Since it's right around the opening price on Friday 11/29 on the QQQ it should be close to that same zone on the SPY, which in the 599.50-600.00 range.  That's roughly 8 SPY points down from the current all time high, which is about 80 ES/SPX points lower.  I don't see anything else so that's likely all the market is going to give us for a pullback in the coming days.

But I would not look for another strong rally up as everyone is going to get long and it will be a slow grinding move back up.  It will be some final 5th wave with the pullback being the 4th wave, and I don't know the target level for it.  I will just wait to see when the technicals suggest the top is in.  It might be just a hair higher (a double top?) or an extra 100 points higher... I don't know?  Here's the daily chart below...

Notice how close the RSI is to reaching overbought but it's really struggling to get there.  Again, I don't know the time frame but it's got to be just days-weeks away, not weeks-months.  It will NOT be an obvious high as all the tops in the past never had blow off tops either, so there's no reason to expect it to happen this time around either.

It will be a subtle high that won't be noticed by the masses, and it should come on light volume.  It could be right into the Christmas period as everyone will be looking for the Santa Rally to happen right afterwards.  So we could see that high happen the week prior to the 25th as then no one will pay attention to any small pullbacks that start happening as we go into the holiday and the end of the year.

It's not going to be easy to catch it but I do think we will see it this month, not in January.  This assumes a small pullback in the coming days and not some 200-300 point one.  Keep it small and that will cause the top to come sooner, and the FP's I have suggest only about 80 points down for this pullback.

In closing, don't get sucked into thinking we have topped now if the pullback comes here in the next day or so as the FP will be the target low where we will bottom and then go back up again.

Have a blessed day.

Ritual Numbers...

Monday night I looked at the price of the ES and noticed that the high was 6066.75, which held most of that night and into Tuesday morning and eventually went a little higher but it held that high for awhile. Below is that chart...

Then after the Tuesday close at 5:30pm on the ES Futures I noticed that the close was 6066.75, and right around the open at 6pm EST for the Wednesday trading day it hit 6066.50, which is where I got my screenshot. It then ran up a little to make a higher high away from that number. Here's that chart below...

What I find interesting is that back on August 25th 1987 the SPX cash opened at 333.33 and the low that day was also 333.33... and the market ran up a little higher that day to hit 337.89, which happened to mark the high before a 10% or so fast drop. Here's that chart below...

Now I don't think we are going to crash like the move down after the bounce into the 10/5/87 high but I do think we could see the 10% drop happen. Ritual numbers are used a lot in the market (and TV shows and movies) because it's satans world. When I see them they stand out to me and make me look deeper into whatever it is.

The number 33 is the age of Jesus before they killed him of course, and the 666 is the number of man. Then we have 322, the skull and bones satanic group, which you'll see many movies that have multiples of that number on things like hotel doors, license plates etc... They are everywhere really, but in the market I find it very interesting as odds of certain numbers showing up at super important levels where "turns" should happen seem to just appear more often then they really should I think. Maybe it's nothing, or maybe it's a sign of what's coming?

Have a blessed day.

Nothing has changed as the market is just waiting for the right time to rollover. Yesterday was just another light volume day with a float higher that really never went anywhere. It's trying to breakout but it's looking super tired right now, and I just can't see it grinding up to 6300+ for some blow off top. Maybe we reach 6100, but I really don't see it in the charts. It feels like the market is just waiting on a reason to rollover but trying to time the exact date or price level is super hard. I still think we are very close now.

Have a blessed day.

The market made a new high on Friday, as well as other indexes.  It's possible that the Alternative Wave Count has been killed, but it's too early to tell for sure. While I could see one or two indexes making a slightly higher high too many of them did, meaning we might be back to the Main Wave Count and in the final 5th wave up, which will likely go up to 6300 or more I suspect.

It's too early to know for certain as this week is a bearish period, so we could still see the drop happen that I've been looking to start for awhile now.  But we'll need to see support levels break as if we don't then this bearish period will just be more consolidation before the last move up to 6300+ as covered in the Main Wave Count.

I was quite bearish on Friday but I need to remain open minded to being wrong and the market making one last move up.  For that to happen we'll need to see the market hold support this week.  A breakout of this chop zone the market has been in for awhile should happen this week and/or next, but I just don't know which way?  I lean toward a down move as I think they will not put in the final high this month but drag it out into January.  That means a down move would be needed first to get everyone super bearish again, and then a face ripper squeeze could last right into the inauguration on the 20th of January.  But that's just a gut feel and nothing more.

I will add that bullish sentiment is very high right now and that as I bounce around the internet to read what other stock market traders are thinking I notice that everyone seems to think we will go sideways this week with a small pullback possible and then another rally up into either late December or sometime in January before we see a 8-10% pullback.

I think we all know by now that if too many people (and I mean good traders and forecasters) are all thinking the same thing it rarely happens like that.  That "suggests" we'll either see a strong rally up here in the short term (1-2 weeks) to top out earlier then most think... or we do the opposite and drop hard here in the short term as not many are expecting it.

Now I point this out because I've been a victim of the same mindset myself and found out the hard way that when it didn't play out like I, and many others thought it would.  So if we get a choppy pullback this week like many are think I'd be super nervous about next week thinking it was just consolation before another big breakout rally.  The opposite might just happen and instead we see all the consolation just be a bull trap before the bottom falls out as we go into mid-December.

Have a blessed day.

In my humble opinion today is the last day to get short before a nasty drop starts that should hit and pierce the 533.01 FP on the SPY in the next few weeks.  Volume will be super light today and the market will close early (1pm EST I think?).  I don't expect to see much of anything happen... chop basically.

If we don't make a new high, and I lean that way, then we should be on my Alternative Wave Count and the Small Wave B up will have completed on the 11/26 on the ES with a lower high.  Other indexes have a "slightly" higher high, but I still think it's a B wave up.  Nothing more to say.

Have a blessed day.

The grind higher continued yesterday and afterhours where we got up even closer to a new all time high. Today or the half day on Friday is the last chance to make a new high I think. Again, as I explained in detail on my Monday post, I don't think we reach the FET of 6435 on the ES as past history doesn't support that happening.

It seems all the shorter and medium term FET's get hit in the bull market but at the end of it the price will fall short of hitting. That leads me to believe we won't see much more on the upside and I'm 50/50 on whether or not we will even hit a new all time high?  It might stay under it and put us on my Alternative Wave Count?

As far as the wave count goes (Main Wave Count) we are probably in some tiny degree wave 3 inside a 5 of 5 of 5 or something. It's the last few waves basically, and can end anytime now. If we get the squeeze today then Friday should have a tiny pullback early and float back up into the close to finish the 4 and 5 and complete everything.

If instead we do NOT make a higher high today (or Friday) then we are on my Alternative Wave Count and again, can end at any time.  It would complete Small Wave B up and next will be Small Wave C down into mid-late December.

If you are a bear it's my opinion that a big opportunity for a great short entry will appear today and/or into Friday.  Whether that is a higher high or not is unknown?  "Time" is running out here for this rally and we might not see a blow off top?  Maybe it stays under the current high or just ekes one out by just a few points? I don't know for certain what is going to happen but I'll have my finger on the short button as in the end it will be a gut feel.

Have a blessed day.

Last nights pullback of 20+ points was either Super Extra Tiny Wave 4 (SET) or Extra Tiny Wave 4, which means today we are in either Super Extra Tiny Wave 5 inside Extra Tiny Wave 3, or we are in the first wave of Extra Tiny Wave 5 up. It's super hard to be accurate on these really small intraday moves but my best guess is that we are in the final move up, which would be Super Extra Tiny Wave 1, inside Extra Tiny Wave 5, inside Tiny Wave C, inside Small Wave B. I posted on Twitter yesterday that chart. Here's the link.

https://x.com/reddragonleo/status/1861149425114153098

That all assumes we do not make a higher high, which is my alternative wave count. If we are on the main wave count then we will make a higher high to end the entire bull market. It will be somewhere between 6112.14 up to the FET of 6441.96 (SPX), which on the ES it's a little higher but still in that range. I explained those targets in my post yesterday. If this happens then the wave count is changed a little which is in the chart below.

The big difference is that after we make a new all time high (which might drag out into next week) the drop to the FP on the SPY of 533 will be followed by a rally back up next year for a lower high. That's the major difference between it and the main wave count. Not much else to add so I'll end it here for this post.

Have a blessed day.

This week is the last week where we could possibly see a blow off top, I really don't think it's going to happen. Instead, I think we get a lower high and a pullback to the 533.01 FP on the SPY into mid-late December. Then we rally hard again into late January to hit my FET of 6441 and the FP on NVDA of 160.22, which I've covered on last Fridays' post in great detail. Would I like to see a rally to 6441 this week? Heck yeah! But the odds of that happening are super low in my opinion. The technicals are just too weak looking. The weekly chart looks ready to (finally) rollover, which you can see on the SPX below...

Besides the obvious triple (or quadruple) negative divergences on the RSI of that weekly chart notice all the different Fibonacci Extension Targets that have been hit. There are short, medium and longer term one's, just like there are small, medium and large waves. The biggest FET is the one connecting the 2020 low to the 2022 high, which points to 6441.96, and is my final high for this multi-year bull market before a really nasty correction happens.

All of the short and medium term FET's have been hit except the big one at 6441.96, so I just don't still this bull market ending until that one is reached. I do NOT see December as a bullish month where we will go up and hit it, as the technicals just don't support it. Now let's look at the daily chart of the SPX...

As you can see the RSI i pointing up on the daily chart but it clearly getting tired as it has made several tops on the RSI that never reached overbought before rolling over. We will likely see the same thing happen this week as while there should be light volume due to the Thanksgiving Holiday there's just no really big buying up here. I think we'll just chop and grind all week and top out by either Wednesday or the half day on Friday. By then the RSI will be exhausted and will likely rollover the first week of December.

Don't forgot about the common pattern that happens every month around the end of it and the start of the next month... which is "turns happen a lot". Some are small and some are big but never the less it's a common pattern every month and this month will be no different. Add in overbought weekly charts and you have a setup for a nice move down coming.

In this post I've covered the bigger picture here as we go into December and into the first quarter of 2025. As for the short term I don't have much to say. I just think we'll have light volume all week and that favors the bulls. Any pullbacks shouldn't be much and will likely be reversed back up into the half day on Friday. Next week is where the bears get to have some fun. Below is the "best guess" wave count (ES)...

Lastly let me point out some days that "events" are at, which could cause "turns" in the market.  They are...

Next Non-Farm Payroll (NFP Dates): December 06, 2024...

Consumer Price Index Dec. 10, 2025 08:30 AM

... and the FOMC Meeting Two-day meeting, December 17-December 18

I'd have to guess that the FOMC date will be a low, maybe not "the low" but a low never the less.  Possibly it bottoms there for some kind of wave 3, bounces for a few days, and does the wave 5 into Christmas where I suspect the "important" low will be at before a big rally starts for Medium Wave 5 into late January.

That Christmas area low could be a slightly lower low or slightly higher low then the FOMC low... I don't know?  If we hit and pierce the 533.01 FP on the first low then I'd look for the second low to be a higher one.  Then we'd have a wave 1 up (Small Wave 1 probably) from the first low, and a wave 2 down into Christmas for a slightly higher low.  I lean toward this being the case as it will be the opposite of what happened in 2018... and you know how the market loves to fool the most traders.

The "clue" to tell us what is the plan will be whether the FP is hit on the first drop or not... and if there is a clean ABC drop with 5 waves inside the C wave down.  This all assumes we don't make a higher high this week on all the indexes.

If we just make one on the ES, but not the NQ, or the YM, and maybe not even the cash indexes on the SPX, NDX and DOW... then I'll just say that Small Wave B up had an overshoot and the wave count is still valid.  But if too many indexes make a higher high then I'll have to adjust the count and move the top for Medium Wave 3 to the new high.  We'll cross that road "if" it happens.

For now the current wave count on this post is what I think is most likely, which is my Alternative Wave count that I covered on Friday.  If a new all time high is reached (like early in the week, not on Friday) then we'll be back on the Main Wave count where my FET of 6441 is coming faster then I thought possible.

As of the close last Friday that blow off squeeze doesn't look possible as there's not even a full week left for it to happen into the turn window, which is why I put out the alternative wave count as then we'd pullback to the 533.01 FP first and then rally to the FET of 6435 into late January.  But if we get a big squeeze this week, meaning over 6100, 6200+, then I'd say it's over the bulls and the first drop will be the 533.01 FP and then a strong rally into January for a lower high should follow.

My point here is that I can't get a 100% focused on the FET hitting as it's the last one, the really big one, which ends the bull market... so it could fall short of hitting.  They have a perfect track record of hitting the medium and short term FET's but the large one, which again is calculated from the 2020 low to the 2022 high, will be the last one, and it might not reach it.

Looking back at a prior large FET, which connected the 2009 low of 666.79 (SPX) to the 2020 high of 3393.52, it projected a target high of 5078.64 to end the next multi-year bull market following the 2020 bottom.  Well, all the medium and short term FET's from the 2020 low to the 2022 high played out just fine, but the final high in 2022 was 4818.62, which was short of the FET of 5078.64 by 5.1127%, and if you use that same percentage on the current FET of 6441.96 (SPX) you get 6112.14 as the final high.  On the ES that would be about 31 points higher (roughly).

Again, there are many things to pay attention to this week as in the end it will be a "gut feel" using the technicals, the turn dates, the patterns, the fake prints, the fibonacci extension targets, and even some astrology.  I just say that if we get a really big move up this week of several hundred point I have to start thinking it's topping now and any rally back up in January will be for a lower high.  We shall see...

Have a blessed day.

Got a nice rally yesterday after a lot of wild swings in both directions, but in the end we did go up. With just a week left into the end of November I really doubt if we reach the top by then, but who knows for sure as anything is possible.  I just think that once we reach the double top zone we might spend some time there consolidating, which will eat up "time", so this could extend into early December if it's going to reach the FP on NVDA then and put in the final top?

If so, it's at that point we should be topped in every market, but guessing the price on those markets are just that... a guess. On the SPX we might have already topped? I'm not positive but we've hit a very important rising trendline as posted in the chart below...

On it you can see the rising white trendline that starts at the high on 9/6/1929 and connects to the 3/29/2000 high, so it's a SUPER IMPORTANT TRENDLINE.  If we go up and make another higher high into the end of next week, and hit that trendline again, it will be around 6050-6075 (roughly), which it could do for sure.

NVDA can still do its' blow off top to hit the FP on it of 160.22, but the ratio between it and the ES/SPX changes all the time as it's just one stock compared to 500 in the ES/SPX... so we could just barely go higher on it but be super strong on NVDA. Really hard too figure out, but the end of next week will have the best chance I think due to the expected light volume for the holiday.

Now my alternative thoughts...

If we go up next week and make a lower high, or even a "slightly higher high" on some, but not all indexes, meaning NO Blow Off TOP, then I'll have to think something else is in play.  I would then think that it's a B wave up of some degree from the recent low last week, with the 6053.25 high on November 11th being the top of Medium Wave 3 where Small Wave A  drop started.

What is means is that the rally up to the 6053 top was the completed Tiny Wave 5 up, which completed Small Wave 5 inside Medium Wave 3. My wave count chart from November 12th has that Tiny Wave 5 up subdividing into 5 Extra Tiny Waves, which would probably top at the FET of 6453, but "what if" that Extra Tiny Wave 5 is just a One Wave move, not Five Waves?

Below is that old chart again...

If it turns out that is the case then we will have completed Medium Wave 3 up and we are now in Medium Wave 4 down, which the move to the 11/19 low would be Small Wave A down and we are inside Small Wave B up now, which should make a lower high into next week to complete it.

Then a Small Wave C down will follow in December that should hit the 533.01 FP on the SPY, and it will unfold in a 5 wave move, which will confuse the most traders. This actually has good odds of playing out as I can see a clean 5 wave move down from the 6053 high to the 5855 low, which if it was Extra Tiny Wave 2 down it should have unfolded in a 3 wave ABC move, not a 5 wave move.

Here's a chart below showing all the smallest waves...

This also means December won't have the big drop I was thinking as possible (the 483 FP on the SPY) as the market will not have put in the final high.  It will extend out into mid-late January to do the blow off top and hit the FP on NVDA, as it will have topped yesterday with its' new all tine high and it will have a lower high as well into next week.  Then it will drop with the market in Small Wave C inside Medium Wave 4.  The 160.22 FP won't be hit until late January just like the rest of the market.

I have to think this is the most likely scenario as I just don't think there's enough time left to get the blow off move I'm looking for, and the main wave count doesn't support it either.  Plus we have that idiot Jim Cramer coming out now calling to "Buy, Buy, Buy", and we all know that when he says to buy something it's topped and a pullback is coming.  He'll say "Sell, Sell, Sell" when the SPY reaches 533.01... LOL.

I don't follow him but I saw a post on twitter about it and that was just another reason for me to step back and re-look at the wave count, which I have and I now lean toward Medium Wave 4 being in play now and Medium Wave 5 up happening into late January.

Zoomed In Look...

This is the same "Alternative Wave Count", but I've zoomed in to get a possible wave count going into next week.  As you can see it "could" unfold in an ABC move with the C wave subdividing many times to frustrate bulls and bears both.

That's all I can think of for now.

Have a great weekend.