The 2085 support I was speaking of was on the SPX, not the ES Futures. As for Thursday and Friday there’s a very strong chance that we’ll make a lower low on one of those days then Wednesday’s low.
Not sure yet? Looks like a 50/50 chance at this point. If the recent move up to 2117 was a failed wave (that should have gone to 2130-2140) then we should be heading down toward that 2060-2070 triple top area.
But if we rally up Wednesday strongly (like July 18th, 2014) then I’d say we have about a 60-70% chance of taking out the 2119 current high. Considering that we hit that all important 5000 on the Nasdaq just once I get a strong feeling that they will try to hit it again and go higher.
Regardless of if it goes higher slightly or just double tops it should carry the SPX with it… meaning it too should take out 2119, even if only by a few points. As much as I’m a bear at heart I have to think the bulls will make another run higher before allowing a bigger drop.
This DOW Transport chart tells me it’s trying to decide which way it wants to go.
It’s trapped in the middle of a lot of moving averages providing support from the 20MA and resistance from the 10MA. It’s pierced through the blue support line that makes up the top trendline of the channel it’s been it for many weeks and only recently broke out above it.
If it closes red and below the trendline tomorrow and the SPX closes green then chances of a move up to 2130 area are weakened. I’d like to see it put in several days of “doji” candles to make a nice multi-day bear flag while the SPX rises to the 2130 area.
That would be the best clue that the SPX move wouldn’t be supported by the Transports and therefore it would be highly like to fail up there and not continue in some bigger rally to 2200 or so…. meaning a drop to 2060-2070 would have stronger odds.
I’ll be looking for the Full Stochastic to get overbought on this chart tomorrow…
If they get up to the 80 area too quickly tomorrow and don’t close today’s gap down or at least the gap window it would be a sign of weakness for sure. I’d be leaning toward the move down to 2060-2070 happening after that bounce runs out of juice by midday or soon.
The Russell chart tells a different story it seems…
Notice how all the prior peaks rarely produced a slightly higher high within a few days of the first high? In most cases they just came up and put in a lower high and then started the bigger move down.
On that chart you’ll see only the 1221.44 high as being the “higher high” then a prior top just a few days before it (hard too see). The 1008, 1063, 1182, 1212, 1213, and now the 1243 highs stand all by themselves.
The 1183 high in September appears to have been a “higher high” then a prior one, but it was probably 2 weeks prior it and doesn’t fall into the same pattern as I explain in my video on the SPX and prior highs getting taken out within a few days.
So if the SPX shows weakness then the Russell should look even weaker. Therefore I’d look to short the IWM instead of the SPY if Wednesday turns out to be another weak day for the market.
This is the chart I posted yesterday on the ES: http://screencast.com/t/5HQeyOCx5x I think we are in the “HOWEVER” statement.
We are at good support here. I wouldn’t be surprised if we don’t put in the low within the first hour or so and then rally into the close.
ES Update: http://screencast.com/t/5HQeyOCx5x
SPX Update: http://screencast.com/t/I5Qm6SuBgy
Gold chart analysis: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2015/03/gold-nearing-weekly-lows.html
ES Update: http://screencast.com/t/WMu6D9JU
The 2085 support I was speaking of was on the SPX, not the ES Futures. As for Thursday and Friday there’s a very strong chance that we’ll make a lower low on one of those days then Wednesday’s low.
Hit 2085 on ES today…
Not sure yet? Looks like a 50/50 chance at this point. If the recent move up to 2117 was a failed wave (that should have gone to 2130-2140) then we should be heading down toward that 2060-2070 triple top area.
But if we rally up Wednesday strongly (like July 18th, 2014) then I’d say we have about a 60-70% chance of taking out the 2119 current high. Considering that we hit that all important 5000 on the Nasdaq just once I get a strong feeling that they will try to hit it again and go higher.
Regardless of if it goes higher slightly or just double tops it should carry the SPX with it… meaning it too should take out 2119, even if only by a few points. As much as I’m a bear at heart I have to think the bulls will make another run higher before allowing a bigger drop.
This DOW Transport chart tells me it’s trying to decide which way it wants to go.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24TRAN&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p88516786335&a=367608902&r=47
It’s trapped in the middle of a lot of moving averages providing support from the 20MA and resistance from the 10MA. It’s pierced through the blue support line that makes up the top trendline of the channel it’s been it for many weeks and only recently broke out above it.
If it closes red and below the trendline tomorrow and the SPX closes green then chances of a move up to 2130 area are weakened. I’d like to see it put in several days of “doji” candles to make a nice multi-day bear flag while the SPX rises to the 2130 area.
That would be the best clue that the SPX move wouldn’t be supported by the Transports and therefore it would be highly like to fail up there and not continue in some bigger rally to 2200 or so…. meaning a drop to 2060-2070 would have stronger odds.
I’ll be looking for the Full Stochastic to get overbought on this chart tomorrow…
http://stockcharts.com/public/1092905/chartbook/335493930;
If they get up to the 80 area too quickly tomorrow and don’t close today’s gap down or at least the gap window it would be a sign of weakness for sure. I’d be leaning toward the move down to 2060-2070 happening after that bounce runs out of juice by midday or soon.
The Russell chart tells a different story it seems…
http://stockcharts.com/public/1092905/chartbook/244764519;
Notice how all the prior peaks rarely produced a slightly higher high within a few days of the first high? In most cases they just came up and put in a lower high and then started the bigger move down.
On that chart you’ll see only the 1221.44 high as being the “higher high” then a prior top just a few days before it (hard too see). The 1008, 1063, 1182, 1212, 1213, and now the 1243 highs stand all by themselves.
The 1183 high in September appears to have been a “higher high” then a prior one, but it was probably 2 weeks prior it and doesn’t fall into the same pattern as I explain in my video on the SPX and prior highs getting taken out within a few days.
So if the SPX shows weakness then the Russell should look even weaker. Therefore I’d look to short the IWM instead of the SPY if Wednesday turns out to be another weak day for the market.
do you think we will still go down to 2085 area or have we bottomed and now on way up to 2135