I see the charts as very overbought now and if tomorrow has a weak gap up of only a few points I think it’s a sell. They need to clear 2075 area on the ES to even have a chance to run the stops in my opinion. Otherwise I see the technical’s in the charts pulling the market down.
Only a stop run by SkyNet can get it going up to the cup and handle expected high of 2085, and who’s to say that it’s still a valid pattern? We did breakdown from it some earlier today, which tells me the pattern may or may not work?
Ok, expected down move tomorrow with 70% chance no longer valid as we have a breakout on most ETF’s now with new higher highs then yesterday. So at this point the cup and handle pattern is likely back in play for now. Expected high is 2085 ES or 2090 SPX. (Of course we could gap up and pullback back tomorrow before we go up that high).
I’m a little shocked that the cup and handle pattern failed, especially knowing how rigged the market is to the upside. We have also not made a higher high today either. So far the high this week was yesterday (Tuesday). This tells me that we have around a 70% chance of dropping lower Thursday (as long we don’t go up today higher then yesterday).
Looking at the premarket chart of the ES futures it’s got a nice “cup and handle” pattern and it’s all in a rising channel. This suggests we’ll drift down some early but as long as we hold the lower trendline on that rising channel I think we’ll see the market turn back up and head north into Thursday.
The projected move on the ES is about 25 points high to 2085, or about 2090 on the SPX. Since the market is rigged to the bullish side 80-90% of the time I don’t see any reason for this pattern to fail and not play out.
Now if this happens by Thursday morning then I think we’ll see some selling the rest of that day and possibly Friday as well. So we could still see a low put in this week, but I don’t know how low? For now I’m on looking at this C&H pattern and will watch it play out.
This guy says about what I’m thinking will happen too. His forecast of slight pullbacks before a move higher lines up with a Thursday/Friday low for this week and then a ramp up next week (which is option expiration week and is bullish about 80% of the time). http://joefahmy.com/2015/02/07/video-new-highs-coming-soon/
Could be, but I just don’t get the feeling (based on the charts and other stuff…) that they will breakout to the upside next week. I see a pullback next week with and estimated Thurs/Fri low. Then a rip higher the following week (which is option expiration week, and it’s usually bullish anyway). So that week or the week after it we could see that FP high hit. Therefore we could be going up into the 24th for Yellen to Yell some more… LOL.
Janet Yellen will appear at Congress on February 24, 2015 to deliver her semi-annual Humphrey Hawkins testimony. Last Year Janet spoke on 2/11. I just have that gut feeling we move higher and touch 2118 soon. Just a hunch.
Someone I follow on Twitter posted this chart and was talking about gaps as shown in yellow and a range bound market as shown by the blue line. I don’t think they know what a FP is and clearly didn’t pay any attention to the 211.80 SPY print on this chart from late December.
I never seen it on any of my charts but it’s on their charting system. I can only suspect that we’ll see that level hit at some point this year… probably this month if we are about to breakout of this range soon? http://reddragonleo.com/wp-content/uploads/spy-fp-211-80.png
Down next week is likely with a Thurs/Fri low, then up the following week for the monthly option expiration. Possibly that will be the week we hit that FP of 211.80? Of course that depends on how low we go next week.
I see the charts as very overbought now and if tomorrow has a weak gap up of only a few points I think it’s a sell. They need to clear 2075 area on the ES to even have a chance to run the stops in my opinion. Otherwise I see the technical’s in the charts pulling the market down.
Only a stop run by SkyNet can get it going up to the cup and handle expected high of 2085, and who’s to say that it’s still a valid pattern? We did breakdown from it some earlier today, which tells me the pattern may or may not work?
Ok, expected down move tomorrow with 70% chance no longer valid as we have a breakout on most ETF’s now with new higher highs then yesterday. So at this point the cup and handle pattern is likely back in play for now. Expected high is 2085 ES or 2090 SPX. (Of course we could gap up and pullback back tomorrow before we go up that high).
I’m a little shocked that the cup and handle pattern failed, especially knowing how rigged the market is to the upside. We have also not made a higher high today either. So far the high this week was yesterday (Tuesday). This tells me that we have around a 70% chance of dropping lower Thursday (as long we don’t go up today higher then yesterday).
Looking at the premarket chart of the ES futures it’s got a nice “cup and handle” pattern and it’s all in a rising channel. This suggests we’ll drift down some early but as long as we hold the lower trendline on that rising channel I think we’ll see the market turn back up and head north into Thursday.
The projected move on the ES is about 25 points high to 2085, or about 2090 on the SPX. Since the market is rigged to the bullish side 80-90% of the time I don’t see any reason for this pattern to fail and not play out.
Now if this happens by Thursday morning then I think we’ll see some selling the rest of that day and possibly Friday as well. So we could still see a low put in this week, but I don’t know how low? For now I’m on looking at this C&H pattern and will watch it play out.
This guy says about what I’m thinking will happen too. His forecast of slight pullbacks before a move higher lines up with a Thursday/Friday low for this week and then a ramp up next week (which is option expiration week and is bullish about 80% of the time). http://joefahmy.com/2015/02/07/video-new-highs-coming-soon/
Could be, but I just don’t get the feeling (based on the charts and other stuff…) that they will breakout to the upside next week. I see a pullback next week with and estimated Thurs/Fri low. Then a rip higher the following week (which is option expiration week, and it’s usually bullish anyway). So that week or the week after it we could see that FP high hit. Therefore we could be going up into the 24th for Yellen to Yell some more… LOL.
Janet Yellen will appear at Congress on February 24, 2015 to deliver her semi-annual Humphrey Hawkins testimony. Last Year Janet spoke on 2/11. I just have that gut feeling we move higher and touch 2118 soon. Just a hunch.
Someone I follow on Twitter posted this chart and was talking about gaps as shown in yellow and a range bound market as shown by the blue line. I don’t think they know what a FP is and clearly didn’t pay any attention to the 211.80 SPY print on this chart from late December.
I never seen it on any of my charts but it’s on their charting system. I can only suspect that we’ll see that level hit at some point this year… probably this month if we are about to breakout of this range soon? http://reddragonleo.com/wp-content/uploads/spy-fp-211-80.png
Down next week is likely with a Thurs/Fri low, then up the following week for the monthly option expiration. Possibly that will be the week we hit that FP of 211.80? Of course that depends on how low we go next week.
There was the reversal down I was expecting. Now (since it’s Friday) they should recover and chop around the rest of the day.
Based on what I currently see in the charts I give it high odds of a reversal back down today after the gap up open.