The $cpci (index put call ratio) index skyrocketed on Friday, quite some unusual activity coming off of trillion Euro QE euphoria.
The euro is also in a precarious position. It dropped below its day Bband on Friday and has dropped below it on the weekly. There was a hollow bar for Friday’s action but don’t know if they really work for a market that trades nearly 24 hours a day. So there’s a chance for a big rally or the opposite but judging by today’s events I don’t see an impetus for a pop but we’ll have to wait a few hours. At least closer to the Euro open but the $dax futures were indicating a decent drop is awaiting the open.
That’s before the market opens so I guess whatever reaction they have might fad by the open if it’s a move up. If it’s a move down then I’d say we stay down until the open and continue into next week. I see nothing bullish here at all. I’d love to see a gap up to short, but I’m not expecting it.
Mercury goes into retrograde today so maybe today was a trickster move. Sun also enters Aquarius following the new moon in Aquarius. Let’s see what news they really deliver tomorrow. I need to process some more info to see how the markets might have reacted to the leaks. Euro popped a little bit but the Swiss bailed on their peg because they see the euro nosediving and they don’t want to be tied to a nosediving euro, IMO of course. Also need an impetus for the Germans to bail.
Unless we gap up HUGE Thursday (meaning like 30-40 SPX points) I would sell it as I believe it will be a knee jerk reaction to the ECB stimulus that won’t likely hold. That assumes they announce something more then the expected $50 Billion Euro’s per month that the market is expecting.
If they only do what the market expects then we could gap down and go. Either way, gap or gap down I think we go down into the end of this month where the FOMC meeting and the Legatus meeting give us our turn back up.
What I don’t know is “when” they will make the announcement as they are in a different time zone then us and could release the news before our US market opens. The only thing that would get me bullish is a 30 point or more gap up from some really larger then expected QE program from them. If they say $80 Billion Euro’s or $1 Trillion then I’m a bull… otherwise I’m a bear.
While it would be nice to see a 10-20 point gap up to get a great shorting opportunity at it’s more likely that I’ll have to chase the gap down. That’s fine though as I think we’ll see move down of around 100 SPX points or more, so chasing it will still be profitable I believe.
The inverted H&S on the ES with a 1970 head and 2025 neckline projects a move of 55 point higher or 2080 area. This ECB news tomorrow is about the only thing I could see sparking the start of that move. Failure to gap up huge Thursday tells me it’s a “sell the news” event and the IH&S will then likely fail.
In the past we’ve seen them leak out news before the event and most of the time they did it to goose the market higher as they knew traders would sell it because it only equaled whatever was forecasted and didn’t surprise with more. So my guess is that any pop higher we see Thursday should be sold into the end of January.
The master operator from Omaha has a company that is having a customer appreciation day tomorrow Wednesday Jan. 21st offering 1/2 off of everything. Take advantage of the ritual!!!!
I know I will be gorging on some questionable food tomorrow with maybe a milk shake or some ice cream treats thrown in.
I’m sure those nice folks on the various financial news media outlets are there help you make money so you can retire with a nice large 401k account, right? Surely they are telling you the truth as they want YOU to make all the profit and NOT their greedy wallstreet owners, right?
Afterall we all know that there is always a winner and a loser on every trade and I’m sure they want you to be the winner as the company that owns them isn’t in the business of “dis-information” that might lead you the sheep to be on the losing side of the trade while their sponsors are on the winning side, right?
… and I have some oceanfront property for sale in Kansas for anyone interested.
The ECB speaks this Thursday January 22nd about possible stimulus. If the market rallies into that event then it should be a “sell the news move” which implies more downside into the FOMC meeting the 28th/29th and Legatus meeting 29th-31st.
If the market sells off into the Thursday meeting then I’d expect a rally from that news into end of this month and then another turn back down in February.
The $cpci (index put call ratio) index skyrocketed on Friday, quite some unusual activity coming off of trillion Euro QE euphoria.
The euro is also in a precarious position. It dropped below its day Bband on Friday and has dropped below it on the weekly. There was a hollow bar for Friday’s action but don’t know if they really work for a market that trades nearly 24 hours a day. So there’s a chance for a big rally or the opposite but judging by today’s events I don’t see an impetus for a pop but we’ll have to wait a few hours. At least closer to the Euro open but the $dax futures were indicating a decent drop is awaiting the open.
Upside target could be as high as 2080 area: http://screencast.com/t/os8a2udcj
That’s before the market opens so I guess whatever reaction they have might fad by the open if it’s a move up. If it’s a move down then I’d say we stay down until the open and continue into next week. I see nothing bullish here at all. I’d love to see a gap up to short, but I’m not expecting it.
Mercury goes into retrograde today so maybe today was a trickster move. Sun also enters Aquarius following the new moon in Aquarius. Let’s see what news they really deliver tomorrow. I need to process some more info to see how the markets might have reacted to the leaks. Euro popped a little bit but the Swiss bailed on their peg because they see the euro nosediving and they don’t want to be tied to a nosediving euro, IMO of course. Also need an impetus for the Germans to bail.
The announcement is 4:40 am Pacific time tomorrow. It was leaked earlier today that it was going to be $50 billion a month QE.
Unless we gap up HUGE Thursday (meaning like 30-40 SPX points) I would sell it as I believe it will be a knee jerk reaction to the ECB stimulus that won’t likely hold. That assumes they announce something more then the expected $50 Billion Euro’s per month that the market is expecting.
If they only do what the market expects then we could gap down and go. Either way, gap or gap down I think we go down into the end of this month where the FOMC meeting and the Legatus meeting give us our turn back up.
What I don’t know is “when” they will make the announcement as they are in a different time zone then us and could release the news before our US market opens. The only thing that would get me bullish is a 30 point or more gap up from some really larger then expected QE program from them. If they say $80 Billion Euro’s or $1 Trillion then I’m a bull… otherwise I’m a bear.
While it would be nice to see a 10-20 point gap up to get a great shorting opportunity at it’s more likely that I’ll have to chase the gap down. That’s fine though as I think we’ll see move down of around 100 SPX points or more, so chasing it will still be profitable I believe.
The inverted H&S on the ES with a 1970 head and 2025 neckline projects a move of 55 point higher or 2080 area. This ECB news tomorrow is about the only thing I could see sparking the start of that move. Failure to gap up huge Thursday tells me it’s a “sell the news” event and the IH&S will then likely fail.
In the past we’ve seen them leak out news before the event and most of the time they did it to goose the market higher as they knew traders would sell it because it only equaled whatever was forecasted and didn’t surprise with more. So my guess is that any pop higher we see Thursday should be sold into the end of January.
The master operator from Omaha has a company that is having a customer appreciation day tomorrow Wednesday Jan. 21st offering 1/2 off of everything. Take advantage of the ritual!!!!
I know I will be gorging on some questionable food tomorrow with maybe a milk shake or some ice cream treats thrown in.
If you ever wonder why you can’t find out the truth about the coming direction of the market this image should help you understand why: http://reddragonleo.com/wp-content/uploads/6-corporations-own-all-media-propaganda-outlets.png
I’m sure those nice folks on the various financial news media outlets are there help you make money so you can retire with a nice large 401k account, right? Surely they are telling you the truth as they want YOU to make all the profit and NOT their greedy wallstreet owners, right?
Afterall we all know that there is always a winner and a loser on every trade and I’m sure they want you to be the winner as the company that owns them isn’t in the business of “dis-information” that might lead you the sheep to be on the losing side of the trade while their sponsors are on the winning side, right?
… and I have some oceanfront property for sale in Kansas for anyone interested.
The ECB speaks this Thursday January 22nd about possible stimulus. If the market rallies into that event then it should be a “sell the news move” which implies more downside into the FOMC meeting the 28th/29th and Legatus meeting 29th-31st.
If the market sells off into the Thursday meeting then I’d expect a rally from that news into end of this month and then another turn back down in February.