Possibly one more lower low tomorrow I think and then a rally. My estimated top is 202.45 SPY (about 2024.50 SPX)… which of course is against any B wave up theory. But SkyNet WILL NOT make it easy to pick the next important top.
By “B wave up” I mean that most Elliottwave people see this entire move down as one large wave A and then your typical B wave up is usually some Fib. Level like 50% or so. But SkyNet knows that too, and therefore won’t likely take it there and then really collapse into a massive “crash” C wave down.
Either we go up very shallow to possibly 23.6% (which should take several weeks of chop) or double top it and then tank. I don’t know which but I’m thinking that way too many people are “extremely” bearish now and will remain so for several weeks from now. So SkyNet will keep hitting “buy stops” as it rallies up with more and more bears trying to pick the next top just like the bulls are getting their “sell stops” hit trying to pick a bottom.
Not likely a strong rally this week from the looks of things (small rally maybe?). I guess all those “put” options bought in the 190 and 195 strike prices back 3 weeks ago really was insiders after all.
When I spotted it I was very suspicious of it being insiders but I’ve been so programmed to expect the market makers to manipulate the market to make them expire worthless that I ignored the writing on the wall. It very clear now that insiders bought those puts.
We got the move back to the 50% retracement zone at 1875. It would be even better would for a 61% retracement back to about 1850.That would give us the kind of extreme conditions that could spawn a final blow on phase over the next 3-6 months.
Possibly one more lower low tomorrow I think and then a rally. My estimated top is 202.45 SPY (about 2024.50 SPX)… which of course is against any B wave up theory. But SkyNet WILL NOT make it easy to pick the next important top.
By “B wave up” I mean that most Elliottwave people see this entire move down as one large wave A and then your typical B wave up is usually some Fib. Level like 50% or so. But SkyNet knows that too, and therefore won’t likely take it there and then really collapse into a massive “crash” C wave down.
Either we go up very shallow to possibly 23.6% (which should take several weeks of chop) or double top it and then tank. I don’t know which but I’m thinking that way too many people are “extremely” bearish now and will remain so for several weeks from now. So SkyNet will keep hitting “buy stops” as it rallies up with more and more bears trying to pick the next top just like the bulls are getting their “sell stops” hit trying to pick a bottom.
so bounce tomorrow or look out below for a couple more days. The million dollar question!
Not likely a strong rally this week from the looks of things (small rally maybe?). I guess all those “put” options bought in the 190 and 195 strike prices back 3 weeks ago really was insiders after all.
When I spotted it I was very suspicious of it being insiders but I’ve been so programmed to expect the market makers to manipulate the market to make them expire worthless that I ignored the writing on the wall. It very clear now that insiders bought those puts.
Looks like a “capitulation” day! I suspect the bottom is for awhile and we’ll start a rally for a few days to weeks.
Gold Weekly support zone: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2014/10/gold-weekly-support-zone-and-trend.html
TVIX Update (suggest the market will go down more first before a real bounce happens): http://screencast.com/t/kAaqeKbS
SPX Death Cross coming up soon: http://screencast.com/t/FAoztZn0IAO
Sorry about the video being locked on the new post guys. I accidentally set it to private when it should have been set to public so everyone could see it. I fixed it now. Try it again (http://reddragonleo.com/2014/10/12/will-there-be-a-stock-market-crash-in-2014)
From “where” to “where” are you talking about Scott? What’s your starting point and ending point for your call?
We got the move back to the 50% retracement zone at 1875. It would be even better would for a 61% retracement back to about 1850.That would give us the kind of extreme conditions that could spawn a final blow on phase over the next 3-6 months.