Will There Be A Stock Market Crash In 2014?

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Will There Be A False Flag On November 9th, 2014 To Crash The Stock Market? (updated 11/04/2014)

(to watch on youtube: www.youtube.com/watch?v=n17FTmLjcpQ)

Here’s the previous notes that I posted back in January…

  • 2014 will be a magic year (meaning what?  will you pull a rabbit out your hat?  will you steal money from the sheep without them seeing you do it?)
  • 100th anniversary of the first world war in 1914 (strangely when I researched what happened to the DOW back then it was closed down for several months due to the first world war starting.  are we expecting the same here? REFERENCE: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/02/most-long-term-charts-of-djia-are-wrong, http://measuringworth.com/DJA, https://www.globalfinancialdata.com/gfdblog/?p=1426 )
  • 70th anniversary of the Bretton Woods Conference that gave birth to the IMF. (The delegates deliberated during 1–22 July 1944, and signed the Agreement on its final day. REFERENCE: https://www.google.com/search?q=first+bretton+woods+conference+date&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a&channel=fflb Not sure what the hidden message was here?)
  • 25th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin wall (Destruction date: November 9, 1989… but what is she hinting at here?  Is the “buzz word” the “25th”or the “fall”?  Does the 25th mean a certain future date or does the word “fall” indicate that the market will fall hard?)
  • 7th anniversary of the financial market jitters. (again with the focus on the number 7… meaning what?  are we looking for another move down similar to 2008?)
  • The crisis still lingers… (clearly this means we are going down again)
  • It will not happen randomly… (of course not, it’s always planned)
  • “Global growth is still stuck in low gear” (Hmmm… just a fall guy to blame I guess?  We tank and it’s the fault of slowing global growth)
  • It will not be without downside risks, and significant ones (referring to inflation… or was it really meant to refer to the stock market?)
  • We are seeing rising risks of deflation… (good for us sheep but bad for them)
  • Global growth slowing down as the economy cycle turns… (the “buzz word” that stands out to me there is “cycle turns”)
  • Risk of capital runs… (You really mean the gangsters are moving their money out the market before the collapse)
  • Dry run back in May of 2013… (Ah yes, the old test where Bernanke hinted at pulling money out the market last year)
  • There could still be some rough waters ahead of us… (another clear warning that they plan on taking the market down)
  • Overall, the direction is positive (meaning after the downturn the market we’ll go back up again, which should be a final Primary Wave 5 up with this coming correction next month being a nasty Primary Wave 4 down)
  • 95% of the income growth went to the top 1% (Duh… nothing new there as that was always the plan!  Steal from the sheep and give to the wolves)
  • Tapering will have too be very well timed… (again, she’s clearly staying that we are going to withdraw money from the market)
  • Central banks will have to “undo” what they’ve done… (and again, more references to cutting back the stimulus?)
  • Removing the threat of the debt ceiling… (meaning what?  They won’t set one, or make it unlimited?  I don’t know what she means with this sentence?)
  • A stress test will be done in 2014… (Why?  You already know the banks would all fail.  I guess they have to blame the correction on something)


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Or Just A Big 15-20% Correction?

(to watch on youtube: www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gi-mqG8gkQM)

I give the odds of a big correction at 95% and a full blown crash of about 50% for 2014...

In the past 3 years all we've seen are these small 4-6% corrections and many people think that's all we are going to have this time around too.  They see the market at or near the 200dma and think it will bounce and go back up to new all time highs again.  But will this time be different?  I think so.  Why you ask?  One simple answer:  "The weekly rising trendline of support final broke down last week and closed below it".

S&P500-Weekly-Chart-10-12-2014

 

It's been having these small corrections since the 2011 low and bouncing off of that trendline every single time.  It's been great support for the last 3 years but it's finally failed.  This is the first signs of the end for the bull market since the 2009 low.  While I'm sure there will be one more final rally to retest the current high, (which should start this December, 2014 and carry into early 2015) the current trend is down and we should not assume that this correction has ended yet.

My estimate is that we'll see the mid-1700's on SPX by the end of November before the Christmas rally begins.  I suspect the Full Stochastic will be bottomed in the 20's on the chart above by that time and allow a relief rally.  The MACD's should be close to the zero line as well, where other bottoms form and allow a bounce.  Once that rally starts it should last all of December (of course) and carry into the early part of 2015.

It's hard too know how long the rally will last as it could be only 3-4 months or 3 years?  It is called a Primary Wave 5 up in Elliottwave terms by others (Tony Caldaro) that do a lot better job of tracking wave then I do.  It only has to have a higher high then the current high of 2019 SPX to be a successful Primary Wave 5 up.  It could simply go to 2020 in 3-4 months or extend for 3 years to 3000 or more?  There is no way to know what the government will do to try and extend the market but we can speculate based on the past.

What could cause an extend Primary Wave 5 up... QE4, QE5, and QE6?

I don't know the answer there but I'll say that "in my opinion" the QE programs have exhausted themselves and won't work to prop up the pig from here on forward.  This pig of a stock market is much too heavy now with unsustainable debts world wide.  It's like giving a dying patient a fourth, fifth and sixth round of chemo and radiation treatments with triple the morphine.  It might have helped keep the pig alive in 2009 but this pig is dying and no amount of stimulus is likely to work this time around.

What does that leave for the government to do?  I don't have a clue?  You can see in the monthly chart below how we should have crashed in the last few years but were saved by QE Infinity (also known as QE3 [quantitative easing]}.  Looking at the 2011 to 2013 period you'll see the market go from 1400 area to 1100 and stop, then rebound back up again creating the rising channel we see now.  Now look at the ROC (rate of change) during that same period.  It's hovering on the zero line for almost 2 years trying not to fall below.

S&P500-Monthly-Chart-(top-half)-10-11-2014

When you compare it to the level the MACD's were at during that period, and then look back to the 2007 top to see the comparisons you would have thought the market would have crashed but the government intervened with the largest QE program ever... "to infinity and beyond as Buzz Bernanke would say"!  It looked perfect for another HUGE "wipeout" crash at that time from a technical point of view.

You have the 2000 high with MACD's up in the 120-130's, then a lower MACD high in 2007 in the 60-70's, with the 2011-2013 zone peaking in the 50's creating a triple negative divergence on the Monthly chart.  Clearly the market "should" have crashed then, but the Fed's intervened with QE Infinity.  Now they have successfully manipulated the stock market up to historically levels.  The MACD has never been higher in history (from what I read someone else).

What's all this mean you ask?

To me it says the likelihood of a "Full Blown Stock Market Crash" like 1929 is VERY likely to happen between 2015 and 2017.  The biggest drop will likely happen in 2015 I think as I really doubt if we'll make some extended Primary Wave 5 up that last for 3 years or so with upside targets of 3000 or more.  I'm more inclined to seeing a December 2014 rally that will look similar to rally May, 2008 that simply made a lower high and then crashed the rest of the year.  This suggests that we'll top out in January, 2015 and then drop all year.

If the market goes down to the 1700's area where the lower trendline of support is on the monthly chart then that's the scenario I see happening... just a one month Christmas Santa Claus rally  to make a lower high in January and then a crash.  If however the market only goes down to the 20ma around 1795.47 on the monthly chart then there's a possibility that we'll rally back up to make a "slightly" higher high in early January to hit a "possible" FP (fake print) I spotted on the SPY back on September 19th, 2014 showing 202.45 as an intraday high.  Since we never went that high that day it's "possible" that it's a FP signal to the insiders that know how to read it, which "could" indicate the final top in early January, 2015 after this correction is over with and the P5 (primary wave 5) rally starts.

SPY-FP-202.45-on-09-19-2014

It could be nothing of course... or a "real" FP telling insiders the final high for P5?

Let's talk about the rituals for minute now...

Yes, it's that time of year again when all the elite satan worshiping gangsters meet in secret (but right in front of you... if you are looking?).  Of course I'm talking about Legatus, where we find every snake of importance in the world going to so they can find out the latest information on how the super elite gangsters (the true Reptilians) play to screw the sheep (that's you and me).

Legatus-October-Meeting-2014

Their October meeting is going on now as it started on October 8th and ends this coming Friday October 17th, 2014.  I've done many posts in the past about the importance of these meetings and how the gangsters like to "turn" the stock market before, during, or just after one of these meetings end (http://reddragonleo.com/2013/02/03/the-law-of-equilibrium-and-past-history-with-legatus-and-turns-in-the-stock-market).  I called a very important top on May 22nd, 2013 primarily based on a Legatus meeting during that period, along with technical analysis and numerology.  That date added up to a 33 when adding all the numbers in it leaving 22 as a whole since it's a master number.

Point being is that the gangsters commonly have "turns" in the market around these meetings and they use numerology to pick dates.  Having this meeting going on right now and ending this coming Friday tells me it's likely to be some type of bounce back up wave to retrace possibly 50% of the entire down move from 2019 to whatever the low is... which I suspect will happen Monday around the 1900 area (+/- 10 points).  So "if" we bottom at say 1890 SPX this week we could "should" retrace back up about 50% of the move down.

Speculating here but if we dropped from 2019 to 1890 then we about 129 points and half of that is about 65 points.  So we should bounce to about 1955 area before we have the really big drop start.  I think we'll hit that level by this coming Friday but it could go up a little more the following Monday to some other Fibonacci level like 61.8%, or 79 points from the 1890 low... meaning 1969 is possible.  First of course we have to find the low to calculate from... which should happen early this week.  Then we can guess on the upside target...

Usually high levels of open interest in the Puts for October 17th expiration...

Since I like to trade options I'm commonly looking at the various strike prices, open interest, levels, days to expire, etc... and one of the things I mentioned a few weeks back in a comment and tweet was the very high level of puts in the 190 and 195 strike prices.  On could imply that it's insiders buying them up as they know the market is going to fall below that level.  But that's not usually the case.  Most of the time it's just speculators that may or may not have seen the down move coming and loaded up short.  However, from my experience the "market makers" will manipulate the market back up above the highest open interest levels to make those puts expire worthless.

High-Open-Interest-SPY-October-17th-2014

So will this time be different?  Maybe?  I just don't know?  Normally I'd expect to see 50,000 to 100,000 contracts on any given even number strike price and less then that on the odd prices with the .5's on the end but having 556,194 contracts at the 190 strike price is at least 5 times the normal amount I'm used too seeing.  Then the 195's have 237,554 on them, which tells me the market makers will have to do a whole of digging in their pockets to pay out those put holders if they allow it close below 195 SPY (about 1950 SPX) this coming Friday the 17th.  I can tell you that these guys are similar to card dealers in Vegas and will lose their job if too many people win at their table.  So you tell me what you think they will do?  I think they will rally the market up to make them expire worthless.  In Vegas some manager would come out and have the dealer move to another table to break up the winning streak.

Of course there's no way to know for sure if the "insiders" are actually the one's that are short and know that the market is going down below there by Friday the 17th but certainly we'd expect to see a lot of wild swing "shakeouts" for the retail sheep holding puts.  Then after the market makers sure up their positions they "could" let the market collapse late Friday after most of those puts holders have giving up and sold out at a lose.  Anyway, I'm looking for some kind of rally this week as everything tells me we are oversold short term and due a nice rally.

But after the rally we should expect another HUGE drop the following weeks into the end of November.  I'm looking for that rising trendline of support to be the low are before a bounce, which appears to be around the low 1,700's.  If it's only a shallow sell off then the 20ma on the monthly chart "could" stop the fall, which is just under 1800 SPX.  I'm unsure which will happen but leaning toward the lower target just based on the charts and how many weeks we have left before the end of November when I'm expecting a  bottom to happen.

After that we get a Santa Rally I guess...

Red

P.S.  Let's keep an eye on the Fed's Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases too as they can add to the extreme volitalite as they try to save the market from collapse on these days.

Outright-Treasury-Coupon-Purchases-For-October-2014

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169 COMMENTS

    • We got the move back to the 50% retracement zone at 1875. It would be even better would for a 61% retracement back to about 1850.That would give us the kind of extreme conditions that could spawn a final blow on phase over the next 3-6 months.

  1. Not likely a strong rally this week from the looks of things (small rally maybe?). I guess all those “put” options bought in the 190 and 195 strike prices back 3 weeks ago really was insiders after all.

    When I spotted it I was very suspicious of it being insiders but I’ve been so programmed to expect the market makers to manipulate the market to make them expire worthless that I ignored the writing on the wall. It very clear now that insiders bought those puts.

      • Possibly one more lower low tomorrow I think and then a rally. My estimated top is 202.45 SPY (about 2024.50 SPX)… which of course is against any B wave up theory. But SkyNet WILL NOT make it easy to pick the next important top.

        By “B wave up” I mean that most Elliottwave people see this entire move down as one large wave A and then your typical B wave up is usually some Fib. Level like 50% or so. But SkyNet knows that too, and therefore won’t likely take it there and then really collapse into a massive “crash” C wave down.

        Either we go up very shallow to possibly 23.6% (which should take several weeks of chop) or double top it and then tank. I don’t know which but I’m thinking that way too many people are “extremely” bearish now and will remain so for several weeks from now. So SkyNet will keep hitting “buy stops” as it rallies up with more and more bears trying to pick the next top just like the bulls are getting their “sell stops” hit trying to pick a bottom.

  2. Well, when I saw that NFLX was actually up late in the day, I resisted my urge to get out of short term positions. I haven’t looked at after-hours futures but I cant say things look promising tomorrow with NFLX down 25% after-hours.

    Today’s lows were going to be tested at a minimum anyway. New lows hit 600 today on NYSE. I am looking for 900-1000 for tomorrow. Then maybe a final low Friday? I don’t really know since the indices are below their weekly BBs except the Nasdaq. We’ll have to watch on a day by day basis. A certain little indicator is trucking on down through the crash zone but it is not at an extreme level yet nor is it’s component which actually rose today (albeit minimally).

    • I see one more move down tomorrow and then I think we’ll bottom and rally for awhile. The market opened on January 2nd of this year at 1845 SPX and we hit and pierced that today. Then we rallied from it. It should be some kind of support zone I think.

      Also, the XIV double bottomed today from February’s low this year. It’s the opposite of the VIX. That is also a signal of a short term bottom I think. Again, possibly one more low tomorrow and then a rally. How high is anyone’s guess but with that FP on the SPY of 202.45 lurking out there I do think it’s possible that they hit it at some point.

      Will it be in the next few weeks or next year… I don’t know? But if it’s hit I’d really become very, very bearish again… especially if it’s hit very fast, like 2-3 weeks! Remember, SkyNet reads ALL internet post, tweet’s, comments, etc… and learns how to lead the bulls and bears down the wrong path.

  3. Wow, amazing. AAII bulls at 42% bears 33%. Very little fear for what has been transpiring. Or excessive over-optimism.

  4. They should have washed things out today on the NFLX’s news. Instead they put in a very bullish candle. To fool the sheeple? The markets did test yesterday’s lows without exceeding them for the most part but the ensuing bounces mostly just tested resistance at the close of 2 days ago. Meanwhile, small caps have been rallying for three days already.

    Yellen speaks pre-market tomorrow just in time to save the day but they did the Fed-speak rescue today with Bullard’s remarks on possibly continuing QE. So how does Yellen top that tomorrow. Or does she disappoint the markets? It is Friday 10-17. Forgot to mention the big 707 year anniversary on Monday. But a certain little component of a certain little indicator did rally up to the 0 line today so it has room for a multi-day decline although the overall indicator is in oversold enough of territory from which bottoms are formed.

    Even if this is a first wave down, it should bottom with around 900 new 52 week lows for the NYSE. Instead today saw new lows drop down into the 200s.

    But the biggest concern I have is with the astro-trader/trolls who have been arguing for the market to rally into the solar eclipse like Larry Pesavento. As expected, the opposite has been occurring. They plunged into the solar eclipse in double ninen.

  5. The “one more wave down” I was looking for yesterday is likely out of the question now. I’m now looking for that gap up on Monday too. The projected target on the IWM is the previous “double top” zone around 115.50 for it and for the SPX it’s that 1970 area.

    Also, a possible double top area could happen? My thinking is that the bears will short this all the way up and SkyNet (again, that’s just what I call the super computer running the market) will just keep going up hitting the bears’ “buy stops” on every move higher.

    I believe the FP I have of 202.45 SPY is real and will be hit. That’s about 2024.50 SPX and would be a “slightly” higher high. I don’t know what the wave count then but I do know that this rally up will be very tricky, fooling all the shorts.

    It has to fool the shorts in my opinion if you are going to have another huge wave down to 1500-1600 area. Look at the May-August 2011 chart for clues. I think we are on about June 27th, 2011 today, but I don’t think we’ll see a slightly lower high as happened on July 7th back then but a slightly higher high (main reason for that thinking is the FP on the SPY).

    So possibly some kind of A wave up to end Monday or Tuesday morning. Then down for some B wave and up for the final C wave into the 28th/29th? Guessing on all that but as we know they love to take the market to extremes on both the bullish side and the bearish side.

    • Red, We are going higher into the mid election. This is the only thing the democrats can show for. So your FB 2025 is within 3 week IMO.

      • If, and that’s a big “if” the FP on the SPY is hit within 1-2 weeks I do STRONGLY believe that’s all she wrote for the BULLS and a Stock Market CRASH will follow. I’m still about 50/50 on the crash right now but I’ll raise or lower that figure within the next 1-2 weeks when I see certain things happen or not.

  6. I am looking for a bounce to around SP 1960 or the 50 day moving average or slightly above it around the time of the Fed meeting next week but it’s already practically shot up to that target. We have three large white candles in a row with today being the biggest of them all which is sometimes a reversal pattern in bear phases but breadth momentum appears to be too strong for a sudden reversal. Maybe see a few days of up and down chop.

    Fomer stalmarts KO, IBM, and CMG got whacked today despite the huge move upward. The upcoming solar eclipse is the only unusual astro activity that I see in this period. There is a cluster of activity later. Now all we need to see is the CNBC commentators blather endlessly about the upcoming strong NOV-March seasonal period like they did back in 2000 which saw a top also in September. It looks like the market took the route of the lesser grand ritual with a bottom 19 trading days out although the form into the bottom and the subsequent bounce are taking the form of double ninen. We have reached 27, now on to 85…

        • The meeting was 9 days long so it appeared that since the 15th was a bottom and today or tomorrow is a top that you can call it either way. If you think we are going a lot higher then the 15th was a bottom and it was near the end of the Legatus meeting.

          If you think that it was a top (like today) then you can say that it happened 3 trading days after the meeting ended. The meetings produce turns in the market about 70% of the time I’ve noticed. And while it usually happens on one of the day inside the meeting occasionally I’ve seen it happen shortly after one.

          Regardless, I see one more move up… tomorrow morning hopefully? The jobless claims should be used to move the market up or down at the open tomorrow. If it’s up then it’s an easy short. If it’s down then the rest of the day should rally back up and make a lower high or higher high, which I’d then short into Friday. A short is coming either way…

  7. I think they’ll use the jobless claims numbers to get one more spike higher and then we drop. This TVIX chart shows it breaking out of a falling wedge. It’s common to see a backtest of the trendline before the real move up. So a gap up in the SPX allows a backtest of this chart, which should be at a lower level then today’s low in it.

    http://screencast.com/t/eHPcBYP627Eb

    • I think they want a little more on the upside. Possibly 1963 SPX Friday morning? If they do I’d look to short into next week. I suspect we are going to make an “inverted head and shoulder” and the drop next week should make the right shoulder of it.

      The move down should go to 1920-1930 area to make that right shoulder but I wouldn’t rule out a lower area like 1900 or so simply by the fact that they will want to scare out the bulls and lure in the bears before they make another move back higher later next week.

    • I think so too Scott. The Fed’s aren’t going to announce another QE program at this Wednesdays’ FOMC meeting as they just ended one. The question will be is after the sell off to make that right shoulder of an “inverter head and shoulder” is will they make a new breakout from it or will it fail? If it fails we are going down hard in a massive C wave.

        • Just doing the usual “scare the shit out of the bears” move and make them think we are going up forever. There’s be a move down but it’s not likely to start until after the FOMC meeting is over with this Wednesday.

          So I’d look for Thursday to start the selling. It should continue into next week of course and we should be go down about 50% of the move up. My target area is 1890-1910 SPX zone. After that I’d expect a turn back up.

          The turn back up though will be the tricky move. I don’t know yet if it’s going to go up and make a new high or just make a lower low then today or tomorrow’s high? If it breaks tomorrow’s high then we’re going to a FP I have on the SPY of 202.45 (about 2024.50 SPX).

          If it fails then of course we are going down hard and should break the current 1820 area low and head down toward the low to mid 1700’s before bottoming and then rallying for Santa. Hard too know which will play out but shorting after the FOMC day is over with and then going long after the target zone is hit makes the most sense to me right now.

  8. Past stat’s say that Wednesday’s rarely put in a high or low for the week… therefore we should have a slightly higher high Thursday before rolling over and heading south toward that 1900 area. This could take another week if they take the stairs down (as opposed to taking the rocket ship up).

  9. As expected, the indices basically put in a hanging man on this special 85 year anniversary. Yellen speaks early tomorrow morning which is usually uber bullish but the analogs indicated otherwise. 60 min RSI were a bit overbought and extended this morning though so another divergence is needed? Next step is to see a drop below the 20 day emas.

    Now let’s see if KC can win the World Series 29 years (1985) after their last playoff appearance (a 7 game World Series victory over the STL). The team playing at home (KC) in the 7 th game of the WS is 7-0 the last 7 occurrences…..Wow an involuntary 777 numey reference…..Of course, the 77 reference was made on the 4 letter earlier today. Something going on with the Show Me state as well.

  10. They juiced the Dow today but nothing else was really strong. Transports, $hgx (housing), and jnk were all down today. Toronto Stock Exchange as well. Apple 100 and the Nasdaq both putting in a topping form similar to the secondary top in double ninen. Oh Apple down as well today. SBUX getting hammered in after hours, one of the stocks I watch like a hawk.

    New lows skyrocketed today as well on this momentous up day. Definitely put in another HO, but there have already been a gazillion triggered since September but this is the first one seen on this rebound rally; there was a close/ possible one 2 days ago but today is a no-doubter.

  11. Amazing… totally straight up! I guess we’ll hit the SPY FP of 202.45 next Monday or Tuesday. By then there won’t be a bear left alive. That should be about 2024.50 SPX, but it’s common to go a little past any FP level from what I’ve noticed in the past. So at least the 202.45 is to be expected and possibly as much as a point higher?

    I put the range in as 2024-2030 SPX. It should simply be based on how many bears’ stops are setting above the current 2019 high that need to be hit before SkyNet turns back down the other directions and goes after the bulls’ stops. While any FP isn’t always a “turning point” but is at least a target that will be hit this FP area should be both.

    Why? Because everyone will become bulls then and without the bears to squeeze the market won’t have any choice but to fall back some. Whether it’s some powerful crash wave to the mid 1700’s or not is unknown? But a nice pullback after the elections is very likely in my opinion.

    • We’ll find out soon..but obviously markets can and do just take off and run again and again for years to multiple new ATH’s..confusing the majority that just don’t believe in it. It’s how and why markets climb walls of worry for so long with so few on board. But,and it’s a big ‘BUT’… if today is truly the last “trick or treat” on the bears..then we’re going to need to sell off hard next week and not come back up here to the Dow 17,000’s or north of SPX 2000 for a long,long time.

      I don’t believe much in time and chart correlation comparisons of now vs the past…but for those that do like that sort of thing…the situation going on right now…with a new and 2nd ATH..high just a bit higher than the previous high 2 months ago at SPX 2011.36…similar action was happening pretty much the same way in Oct of 2007..right before the market really started getting serious about heading lower into Mar 2009.A big peak in the 1575 area…a big drop to 1425..and then one final big rally peak just a little higher in Oct of 2007.

      Interesting to look at the late 2007 /early 2008 chart I’ll post and compare the action in Oct of 2007 and this Oct of 2014.

      http://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2011/07/6a0105370026df970c014e89d53b0c970d-800wi

          • Ok. I’ll check on that..but I posted it a couple of other places earlier and it came up for other commenters. But..when you have a chance..look for a chart of that time period I mentioned(Aug 07//Mar 08).. look at it…and see if you can post a chart of it here.
            If..and I stress “if” we’re were to drop hard next week..the comparison to Oct 2007,and the previous 2 months..and our Oct now,and the previous 2 months..would match pretty well.
            That kind of “comparison”thinking “doesn’t work always ..but then again..sometimes it does..or “seems” too.

  12. New lows shot up again on Friday per stock charts to over 100 but the WSJ data does not corroborate. They had 58. Still quite an elevated number this late into a kickoff and even on a big upday. The liftoff in October 2011 never saw new lows rise above 20 ish.

    A component of a certain little indicator did reach a level seen at the B Wave top double7 years ago which is pretty much as overbought as it can get. It can get a little higher which is usually seen at initiation thrusts of new bull legs.

    The $ndx/ Apple 100 did jump to new highs but it did so as well at the aforementioned B Wave High spending one candle in new high territory.

    RSI levels on 60 min and lower time frames did put in lower RSI levels at the end of the day.

    I noticed how big the moon was a few days ago and checked out that the moon goes perigree Sunday night/ Monday morning or right about now near full moon status.

  13. The FP on the SPY from September 19th showing 202.45 has now been hit and is currently the high of the day. While I’ve noticed in the past that FP’s are usually pierced by a little bit before a turn in the other direction this one has not done that… yet.

    If it ends up being the high for today then we could start our pullback Tuesday. It’s certainly strange to see an “exact” hit of the FP and would be strange if that was the high but you it could be as simple as that?

    http://reddragonleo.com/media/SPY-FP-202.45-on-09-19-2014.png

  14. Dow up .5% with Nasdaq slightly negative. Quite the opposite of what occurred at a certain B-Wave high double 7 years ago. Full moon tomorrow on the sixth day of the month similar to a certain set up from the fabled events of that aforementioned time.

    Stock charts had new lows rising today to 120+ from the 100+ reading yesterday and didn’t revise yesterday’s reading. WSJ had 70+ new lows for yesterday’s action which would qualify as an HO event/ observation.

    IBB or the $BTK were down over 1% after putting in a negative monster shooting star on Monday. Biotechs being the strongest index now starting to lead to the downside. JNK also starting a small little move to the downside, definitely producing a TD bear flip over the last few days.

    Some of the hotel stocks I follow, HOT and WYN also starting new downtrends off their recent B wave highs while the strongest stock of the group MAR is mimicking biotech action. LVS is crumbling to new 52 week lows as it follows its 2008 pattern in 2014 after topping out late last year. Beginning the accelerated downmove portion of its 2008 pattern. Apparently, they aren’t gambling in Macau these days.

    • My stongest set-up now in a DeMarkian-like pattern analysis is to call for an imminent reversal in the Japanese yen. It’s blowing off to the downside and spent the last few days outside its lower BB. Even though it bounced pretty hard during the early October stock market dislocation, I had a sense that one more plummet to new lows was likely following its long sustained decline into September.

      Sort of the opposite(directionally–stylistically the same) of what the euro experienced earlier in the year but not as extreme.

      • I have a 100 year history lesson coming in the near future. Just don’t have time to compose it. The operators commemorating a 100 year anniversary just as they did so back then in one of the least heralded market events. Or one of their best kept secrets.

  15. I didn’t really get the meaning of last year’s NCAA championship game other than Florida State was the #2 team/ runner up to 1987 champ MIAMI. The previous year’s championship matchup BAMA (Roll Tide) vs. Notre Dame (ND) set in MIAMI seemed more occultic but I did overlook the fact that FSU did face Auburn (or overlooked the fact) in 1987 or November 7th to be exact. 11-7 did produce a turn 2 years ago following the election and 11-6 did mark a high in 2000 (following an election although I didn’t really look to see what day of the week it was).

    So let’s look for the week to put in a buying climax. I know my predictions usually predict the opposite will happen and some of the trolls have been purposefully wrong and bearish lately but they have disappeared the last few days. Anyway, things need to start reversing soon or I might have to look out to the exact Pluto-Uranus square later which would be a 100 year anniversary date.

  16. SLXP down 36% in after hours after the CFO resigns. I wonder how IBB and the biotech indices will hold up in the face of that. SLXP did have a 10+ billion market cap.

    I see that LNKD was hammered a bit yesterday apparently from announcing they will be offering convertible bonds. Tech companies issuing conv. bonds are another topping signal. Saw that in 2000. At the market bottom(as in 2002/3), they buy back the convertible bonds for pennies on the dollar.

    There was a minor change reading yesterday and today.

  17. 4 minor change readings in a row for a certain little component of a certain little indicator until today when it dropped a little. As I recall some heavy astro activity starts up tomorrow with Mars getting in the mix of things.

  18. So now we once again have to wonder if we’re building up to a pull back, or if they’re just going to be willing to let “time” work off the overbought situation. The jury is out?? I could see a quick drop to test 1950 or continue to chaneel between 2040-2050.

  19. Monday, November 17th will be the 100 year anniversary of the opening of the Federal Reserve Banks or 100 years 1 day later. So maybe numerology/ anniversary will trump astrology since there was some heavy hitting astro activity this week. Wednesday saw Mars join the Pluto Uranus square as it conjuncted with Pluto and then transited to a square with Uranus over the next two days with a Sun Jupiter and Venus Jupiter square thrown in earlier in the week.

    Stanley Kubrick did a lot of research on the Federal Reserve for his grand ritual classic The Shining and the final shot of the July 4 1921 ball photo with Jack Nicholson was originally a photo of some sort of Federal Reserve function/ New Year’s Ball??? Let’s see Nov 17-14 will be 93 years 4 months 13 days later from the 1921 date. Nothing really there but a day later it will be 4months 14days later which conforms to one of there favorite numbers 144….ie 11-14…..141 years 1 month+ from a certain little event in 1873, an event that really doesn’t have a wiki page or much information about anyway.

    The astrotroll was providing headwinds for the bearish cause the last few weeks as he was bearish. Now he has abruptly switched to bullish. Otherwise worrisome misdirecting trolls have disappeared as well.

    Looking out to the future movie release schedule, next week will see the release of the Hunger Games flick (no Wedsnesday. pre Thanksgiving release date?) on Friday 11-21 and after that I really don’t see any heavy occultic fare being released until Christmas day which will see the release of Into the Woods based on a musical that saw its Broadway debut in 1987. It looks to be a slate of weak offerings until then with all of the big releases and prestige films already having been distributed.

    • The heavily occultic NCAA championship game from 2 years ago in MIAMI played between BAMA and ND was a rematch of a 1987 joust played on November 14 of that year. One week after the Florida State Auburn game in 1987. (11-7) The 11-1 runner up FSU Seminoles lost to the 1987 champ MIAMI earlier in the season. They ie defending champs FSU and Miami play their annual matchup today/ possibly right now in MIAMI with the U of M just a slight underdog. Time for a little ritualistic upset? BAMA faces #1 Mississippi State at home in another interesting matchup.

      • I guess I have to go into detail in last Sunday’s Arizona-STL NFL game later, possibly Monday. They were flashing #11s althroughout the stadium as their once star WR #11 has sort of come back to life. I almost thought it was a tribute day for him but I saw no mention of it when I searched for news earlier in the week. They have the best record in the NFL which probably won’t last as they lost their starting QB #3 for the year. (at an interesting time.) Need to review some game tape for the interesting numerological formations in it as well.

        • It’s the 11th season for #11 and tomorrow will be week 11 on the season. And new QB #5 will be throwing to him.

  20. Chop, chop, chop “usually” means ONE thing! They are working off overbought conditions and plan to go higher once the charts are reset. So a Santa rally is likely to happen after all it seems.

      • I think there will be a drop first but not some huge move down like previously thought. Since this week is option expiration week you know how they like to keep the market up to make the put holders expire worthless. So I’d expect the pullback to happen next week.

  21. Those that rule the world, who call themselves the Elite or Illuminati have a sick code of ethics whereas they must tell us in advance what they plan to do to us sheep. In the new movie called “Jack Ryan, Shadow Recruit” they set the stage to blame the Russians on the coming Great Depression Two with the coming collapse of the US Dollar and Stock Market.

    In reality we know the Russians aren’t the bad guys here as it’s the Rothschild, Rockefeller, Vanderbergs, Bushes, and a slew of other well known Billionaires and Trillionaires families. Of course the Queen and the Pope are part of it too.

    Naturally they told us about them blowing up the twin towers in advance in the TV Series called “The Lone Gunman” which was a spinoff from The X-Files. In the first episode a plane was hijacked by a computer and steered into the twin towers. The Lone Gunman saved the day and regained control of the plane to miss the towers but some how I don’t think we’ll avoid the coming economic depression.

    • I’ll ignore the first 97% of that RDL…

      … but how could you not already believe much of the developed world is currently IN an economic depression?

      I refer you to the tens of millions of jobless across the EU and the USA itself. Never mind the fact that purchasing power has fallen by around 45% since 2008 (even semi-mainstream Denniger – market-ticker regularly comments on that issue).

      There is no recovery… there will be NO recovery.

      • Of course the rest of the world is already in a depression. But as you know they manipulate the America markets and job reports to make it look like we aren’t in one. However, the depression I’m talking about hasn’t even began yet.

        I’m expect a final “blow off” top in 2016/2017 followed by a 2-3 year crash of 70-80%… down to Dow 3-4000 or so. So what you currently see is nothing yet my friend.

        • Dow 3k…. with all the new money being printed EVERY single day… how the hell do you seriously still expect that?

          re: However, the depression I’m talking about hasn’t even began yet.

          Define please.

          … I ask, since what would you say to the tens of millions who have been in a depression since 2008.?

          They’re already broke.. with ZERO realistic hope of ever pulling things back together… for them… it is already OVER. It can’t get any worse, other than just plain old death.

          ps. the ‘blow off’ top in 2016/17 is a VERY likely scenario now…. we’re probably talking about sp’4k… effectively… everything doubling up.. mostly in the final 6 months of the move.

          • By the way Permabear if you don’t think “they” tell us ahead of time what they plan to do to us sheep then how do you explain the release of a “Fake Documentary” called Oil Storm (http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0461695) on June 5th, 2005 just before a real hurricane (http://www.history.com/topics/hurricane-katrina) hit the exact city in the movie on August 29th, 2005 just a few months later?

            Coincidence? Maybe? Same thing with hurricane Sandy hitting New York when it was foretold in the Addams Family movie. Considering that there are 26 letters in the alphabet and that they go through it to name hurricanes every year I’d think the odds are slim of an exact match name happening… wouldn’t you?

            And the fact that the movie was done in 1993 and the hurricane was in 2012 I’d say that’s a very odd coincidence… but hey, maybe that’s all it was? I don’t know?

            Then there’s the “no real planes” video hitting the twin towers… http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m5Dl5jIdtdk I have to admit, I missed that after seeing the video many times on the news back in 2001.

            Anyway, my point is simple… everything of importance is planned by those that rule the world, and I firmly believe they are planning a HUGE economic collapse in the near future. My time line is late 2016 or early 2017, which should last 2-3 years before bottoming.

            On the short term we’ll probably continue up to around 2070-2090 SPX before a pullback and then up again in December for the Santa rally to clear 2100 and make a run for 2200 SPX. I think it will top when the NYA FP of 11,330 is hit though… but that could be late December for all I know?

          • I appreciate the reply.. but I can’t add anything to such things. No data. No point speculating on such matters.

            As for market… what about the BoJ buying? Seriously, you talk a lot about many things, but what about the central banks buying stocks?

            It is a HUGE issue, and even today, few are taking it seriously, which is frankly.. even more bizarre than some of your theories on recent events.

          • Certainly I think we are going higher into the rest of the year as I do think we’ll hit the FP on the NYA around 11,330… and that’s well above 2100 SPX, but short term I think we’ll pullback some next week and it could start this Thursday or Friday. How low? Don’t know? But a pullback is overdue and really needed for the bulls to go higher into the Santa Rally.

  22. Today, 11-19, is 151(16) years from the Declaration of the Emancipation Proclamation, issued by the 16th president.

    It looks like they want to do a replay of the ’29’92 ritual in the STL which should usher in denouement. Today would have been 1177(1114) weeks from the release of the jury’s verdict in LA and the ensuing pre-ritual, but not the Bradley date which would be 3 days earlier. An imminent decision should be forthcoming from the grand jury investigating the events out of FerguSON.

    Tomorrow, sees some important astro activity as Mars enters the fray again putting in a harsh little square with Rahu within spitting distance to the Uranus-Pluto square. Did some research and noticed that Uranus and Pluto were in a near square back in 1345 circa April sometime around the time of the cataclysmic banking collapse in Europe of that year that led to the outbreak of the black plague in that continent with the plague hitting the shores of Italy in 1348, 666 years ago.

    Was just watching the 2-9 Lakers take on the Rockets and noticed the Rockets logo, 2 rockets forming an 11 with little 111s forming flames on the bottom with another number seeming to be contained between the 11s and the R.

    Tomorrow is 11-2(0) or 22 and it is 22 years from the ’29’92 ritual. 22 a number I have been noticing quite a bit lately, one number that had been flying under the radar previously.

    • The esteemed Bill Murray, according to some a member of high standing in a certain organization, has a new film out, St. Vincent and not surprisingly, it contains some nice occultic clues with heavily emphasized keywords like Fence, Tree, Crab which of course got me thinking of FErguson, and the recent indie flick CHEF (see an 11-11 there) and Jameis Winston’s Crab Legs. ie QB of the defending champ and 1987 11-1 FSU Seminoles. I was wondering if Winston might have occultic influences and this is just confirming some suspicions. FSU did beat 1987 champ MIAMI on Saturday and BAMA beat Miss. State to take over the #1 spot with the interesting score of 25-20.

      • And don’t get me started on the Adrian Peterson ritual. 2 years ago he was challenging Eric Dickerson’s (#29) rushing record and I remember the 1999 (or was it 199–yds needed to break it??) number associated with that although he finished 8 yards short of the record.

  23. Forgot to mention BAMA’s hometown,Tuscaloosa, is a Bradley town as is #2 Oregon’s, Eugene. But the STL or FerguSON are not Bradley town’s but Kansas City is as well as CHicago. KC does play the Raiders tonight for the Thursday game of the week.

    Popgun and Little Bro had bad weeks last week. Popgun’s Broncos were held to only 7 pts in the STL in a devastating 22-7 loss, the first time any Popgun team had been held to 10 pts or less in a dome.
    Little Bro threw 5 picks against SF, which I believe is a Bradley town. One looked like he intentionally threw it to a 49er(77) defender who was laying on the ground because not only did he throw it at him, he threw it downward as well.

      • The Jack Nicholson July 4 1921 photo at the end of the Shining is the 11th photo (and middle one of Row 2) of a set of 21 photos of 3 rows of 7 photos each on the wall of the Overlook Hotel to the entrance of the GOLD room??

        • Let’s not forget that the KC Royals made it to the World Series this year, their first playoff appearance in 29 years when they won the World Series.

          I did discover some connection to the champion SF Giants but have forgotten the fact. Their all star, Buster Posey, who played on all 3 of their recent champion teams, does have a 1987 birthday, 3-27 so we’re approaching 27 years 8 months.

  24. Ha Ha, I wrote originally the soon to be 7-4 KC Chiefs, which turned out to be the accurate forecast. They lost to the winless Raiders tonite 24-20. Their new record makes more numerological sense. I jinxed myself into the right numey outcome.

  25. Well, might have to reset this as a top. There is a new moon tomorrow so either today or Monday should be a high. Shorter term RSIs looked to have been extreme today so maybe another attempt at a high on Monday. But chart patterns do compare to other historical tops. Just looked at the 2000 top, and biotechs did diverge from the overall Nasdaq over the last ten to twenty days….A ten day divergence for the $rut. And a 28 day final rally into early March for both the $comp and $ndx although the $ndx did make another high 10 days later but it did the same thing also double 7 years ago (again 28 days after its initial August high, more extreme than the 10 day divergence).

    A certain little indicator has rallied too high as well. But I still think one should be worried about next week as well since the numerology is quite heavy hitting for next week. It might not be something stock market related although it is 1414 weeks from a certain little market related event. After next week, I don’t see how they can incorporate their 111s and 10s and they already employed their 12-14 a couple of years ago so I don’t really see anything happening around the next exact Pluto-Uranus square but there is some heavy hitting astro acitivity in the future as well probably better than the current astro setup although it appears Mars won’t be having a hand in anything until it moves into Aries. There is a total solar eclipse in March around the release of the Moby Dick movie but we’ll have to see how things play out going into that. It could actually mark a bottom considering the name of the flick.

    Today did see a technical extreme in the market as the $sp closed above a certain indicator which is extremely rare. The upper BBand meanwhile has flattened and closed similar to certain other historical tops. The $ndx went up and probed its upper BBand today before closing barely in the positive.

  26. I get the feeling this week will be used to reset the overbought charts. With the extremely light volume there’s not much to do but go long on pullbacks and exit shortly there after. While the rally is probably 90-95% over with you just never know when they will drop it hard some morning, so day trading seems too be the safest way to play the game right now.

  27. Well, today should be the top based on my next denouement date ie traditional number of days off the top to denouement. The $rut had the best look to the historical double 7 years on Wednesday. The $ndx or Apple 100 should put in a new high in the near future though. Very overbought RSI right now there.

    SC shows a ridiculous 207 new lows for the session which would trigger a mega HO signal. Even if the SC data is incorrect and they lower that figure, it should be well within the HO threshold. Of course, oil was down 8% or USO and the $xoi was down 7% which should bring it below the 2011 lows which shouldn’t be occurring in a strong economy. Of course, my pulse on the economy is that it has been crap since the start of summer (and was never very strong before) but the manipulators have been massaging the economic figures quite masterfully, which have been diverging from the European statistics (and even their figures are suspect—manufacturing is still technically expanding even there).

    Today is 11-10 ie 11-28 and it si 1444 tds from the 3-6-9 low or 299 weeks later. I’ve got some nice Massive Attack clips on this for some later time. Also has a nice Lorde clip which has quite a few allusions to Kubrick’s grand ritual classic, the Shining.

    Pluto and Uranus are also now both in the 12 degrees sector of Capricorn and Aries now for a pure square. Entered yesterday.

  28. Considering the light volume selloff into the close today it’s possible that we’ve topped here for the short term (meaning a week or two) or we’ll top Monday. Today had prior stat’s of being up 6 out 7 times and Monday has similar odds (better I think), so if we fail to make a new “higher high” this coming December 1st where all that mutual fund money is waiting to be invested I’d say we’ll see some selling happen.

    The big boys need to put that money to work and if they don’t buy on Monday then I’d say they want lower prices to buy at…. hence they will let the market fall some before coming backing to the market again. If so then we should see 2030-2040 next week as the first level of support.

    If however Monday they make another new high then we could see the rest of the week continue higher with 2100+ as the target goal. I’m 60/40 that we’ve topped and will only make a lower high Monday and drift (choppy though) lower the rest of the week. I’d then expect a bottom on Thursday or Friday December 13th/14th before more upside.

    Have a great weekend everyone and eat lot’s of Turkey… as if you’re not rich like the wolves that run the market then you’re a sheep like me, and/or a Turkey to fatten’ up for the kill… LOL!

  29. The market is looking like it might have topped last week. If so I’d expect a move down for about 2 weeks before the Santa Rally starts. Considering how overbought it currently is a move down should be welcome for the bulls if they want Santa to bring them more bear meat to eat.

    I’d guess that we’ll drop until next Thursday/Friday, December 11th/12th before bottoming. While we should drop 100 or more points I doubt if we see half that amount because of the time of the year it is. With so many traders leaving early for Christmas Holiday’s SkyNet will have full control to move it up and down at a much slower pace then when the big boys are trading.

    Big Institutions aren’t likely to dump anything heavy the rest of the years so we’ll just likely see some up and down chop until SkyNet shakes out that last bull and teases enough bears. I’ll just be day trading in and out, both long and short… but more short over the next 2 weeks I think. I just don’t see a multi-day trend down or up at this time, so quick trades are all I can do for now.

      • Sure looks that way to me Scott. But that doesn’t mean the SPX is going to explode upward… only that there won’t be much fear between now and opx Friday. From a technical point of view we should still pullback at a double top for at least a day, and then chop around some before running to 2100+ I believe.

        Maybe they run up a little more this week and then drop back next week? I still think we’ll put a low in next Thursday or Friday before a squeeze higher the week of option expiration.

  30. “No Santa Rally for You” says the soup Nazi… One HUGE Buyer getting some January, 2015 20/22 Call Stupid on the VIX (not sure what the “Stupid” means though?). These implies we’ll go up more on the SPX into the expiration morning of December 17th (which later that day we have FOMC minutes) and then it seems that some expects the VIX to go up and the market down.

  31. Today was a 40 year anniversary date. The market bottomed on December 4,1974 to end the lethal 73-74 bear market about the time the master operator from Omaha was accumulating massive stakes in the market. The last true value low in the market. I guess the market has been holding up for this date. Does this then imply a 2 year bear market into the next election with an Obozo impeachment/ resignation ala the Watergate lows of 1974???

    Then we have a 100 year anniversary date, one of the operators best commemorations/ best kept secrets, part of the nefarious 25 year (666weeks x2) cycle which tends to stray a couple of years at times.

  32. $nymo dropped decisively below its 5 and 8 day SMAs today providing a preliminary sell signal in conjunction with a few others. It was actually below those averages on Friday but barely.

    There was a full moon on Saturday. Jupiter goes retrograde today. According to SC, there were 320 new lows today and the HO signals have been going haywire the past week.

    Some of the Vegas stocks have been getting hammered as well with some steep moves down. WYNN, the pure Vegas play, and LVS with the Macau action thrown in as well.

    Oh and there was a pattern match to the historical top double 7 years ago with the SP making a new high with a similar RSI divergence and MACD setup but with the Nasdaq and Apple 100 acting as the week sister making a lower secondary high ala the Transports back then. Transports did it as well this time.

    We don’t have a pure 100 degree cycle today but the commemoration, I’m sure did take place on Monday of that week. Maybe we have a purer commemoration later as Pluto-Uranus achieve a pure square.

      • We “might” have topped for the year? Not sure yet but it’s looking like we might be starting Primary Wave 4 down, which should be 200-400 SPX points over 2-4 months. So while I think we are going to rally some next week I’m getting the feeling it won’t put in another higher high and instead put in a lower one, which means we could see some much larger wave of selling occur starting the first of 2015.

  33. Quite rare to see such a big down day on the Friday. Next week doesn’t look to be very bullish yet either as there’s a lot of market moving news out that could prevent the old “bullish as usual” crap. The FOMC meeting on Wednesday should certainly prevent anything positive happening on Monday or Tuesday. Maybe they can get something going later in the week but it’s not looking good right now.

  34. Today’s big pop was to be expected. The indices had been closing quite a bit below their lower BB for several days and a certain little component of a certain little indicator was quite oversold and didn’t have much more room to run to the downside. But today’s pop could be just a one day affair.

    With last Friday’s big downday on the 100 year anniversary date, the SP, Dow, NYA closed below their 34 EMAs which also turned down which is a configuration that generally proceeds a fast hard move down. The Nasdaq hadn’t quite achieved that technical set up but it did on Monday as it also finally managed to break below its lower BBs as the other indices had done on Friday.

    There was also the setup of the 9 EMA crossing beneath the downtrending 18 EMA which is the precursor to fast moves down. The MACD signal lines had also crossed from an extended level and were now downtrending at a steep angle. Basically the indices are in a technical setup which produces a pronounced downdraft from which it is difficult to reverse from especially from an abruptly bullish upday that just takes the index back up to the lower BB and near to the downtrending 9EMA.

    Even if there is more of a followthrough to the upside the MACD is indicating that there will be a drop to a new low before the signal lines can crossover again. But a certain little indicator which just recently dropped below its lower BB is indicating this is probably just a short term pop since it tends to run quite awhile below its lower BB once it does drop below it and its current move is still in its infancy. MACD signal lines need to get quite a bit below the O line before a bottom can be considered. They’re currently around the 0 line.

    Anyway, 12-19 and the new moon are approaching and I would look for a continued drop into those events. A move below the weekly Parabolic SAR is the most likely target which is around SP1940 but it could take another week of dropping below that target before a bottom is formed.
    Or maybe we just remain on denouement watch in case all traditional rules are broken. 12-19 is a highly valued date but it will be hard to get to oversold enough levels by that date.

    There was a Greek election today. The Dax certainly didn’t get as excited today as the US market did. (It did have its big bounce the day before….also popping off its lower BB having just arrived down to its lower BB.)

  35. There’s a 212.97 FP on the SPY showing up on many charts now. If that’s not something to do with the quad witching expiration Friday and/or re-balancing then it’s our upside target… which could hit by the end of they year.

  36. The way the MACD is set up is indicating that this is a short term pop as the faster moving short term signal line is still below the slower one and they shouldn’t cross until way below the O line. There was a pop in a similar configuration at the end of May 2011 but that looks miniscule compared to this 2 day pop. It actually looks like the 2 day pop from September 18,19 2008 which was also during opex week. Then it was coming from below the 200 day average. The dominant Sept contract was expiring then as the dominant Dec. one is now forcing many to get out rather than roll basically clearing out the shorts in the market. The $rut also jumped up to the top of its range and actually brokeout above it then while the Rut just went to the top of its range this time. Even the MACD was in a decline mode with its faster moving signal line remaining below the slower one although they did converge briefly despite the pop but the MACD lines had been declining for awhile.

    Anyway maybe it holds up until the new moon. If denouement is to be achieved on Mardi Gras but there is a more special date in the interim. $vix also dropped to its 50 day average today while a component of a certain little indicator bounced to its 0 line after hitting oversold levels just 2 sessions earlier.

    At worst I can see the Dow making a double top but the last 2 days were too steep for a double top rally. In fact they should have kept the indices closing in the middle part of their ranges which is generally how they keep rallies going off the bottom but technical indicators/ setups weren’t there for an intermediate level bottom.

    $Dax also just popped up to its 20 day average after popping off its lower BB which is a standart slingshot move off a lower BB.

    • Yes, I commented about it yesterday. It’s probably the coming high for the end of this year or the first week or two in January. It lines up to be around 2130 SPX and 11,190-11,245 NYA (that’s if the correlation of 5.43 points on the NYA for every 1 point on the SPX remains).

      • What’s up with the private discus account and throw away email address? You do know that discus no longer hyperlinks your website URL to your username anymore, which mean it worthless for trying to get banklinks to your blog if you are trying to build up some traffic.

        The only way to do that is to post the link in the comment now, which most blog owners will delete if they see it as spam. However I rarely delete comments that have links in them as I understand what it’s like to just get started with a new site.

        Of course if it’s not related to this stock market niche then you (or anyone) should post it anyway as it will actually hurt your google ranking because it’s not similar. Anyway, if you are a real person and not a computer bot then comment away.

  37. ‘Tis the season. The season of denouement. Getting a very Eyes Wide Shut vibe over this. New moon tomorrow, Uranus ending its retrograde, and the sun has its shortest day of the year. A Pluto-Uranus square with it achieving the pure exact square on the 15th. 101 bday anniversary coming up with the 100 year commemoration taking place last week.
    Lorde’s video for Yellow Flicker Beat (whatever that means) definitely does pay homage to Kubrick’s final flick Eyes Wide Shut….a film where apparently revealed to much as he died after he presented his official cut to WB. Need to review the film again although I know it pretty well. Tom Cruise walking through the enlightened one’s manor probably one of the best sequences in movie history…..Lorde’s video also has a “Shining” moment as well. A pretty good video from a relative novice that gets better with every viewing. Pretty much pick up another embedded 111 everytime.
    As for the Bradley towns Eugene Ore and Tuscaloosa, Ala, they finished the college seasons ranked#1 and 2 and I expect them to play in the grand ritual championship game. Defending champ FSU, although undefeated, was seeded #3 so that it would setup a BAMA-Oregon champ. matchup.
    Cleveland, another Bradley town, saw the debut of Johnny Bozo in one of the worst QB performances in NFL history as the Clevelandnites were defeated 30-0 at home. JBozo looked like a football actor out there displaying such a pathetic arm that would make even Popgun cringe. The guy was just running around aimlessly and heaving floaters off his back foot late to the receiver and in some cases just up for grabs. I guess his All American receiver in college bailed him out on those heaves back at A and M. The operators probably issued a stand down order to all defenses in college to get him his Heisman and hype. His 40 yard dash at the combine is pretty low for a revered “scrambler”. Basically all NFL linebackers posess that speed. The guy is pretty scrawny too. Definitely not on the roids. I guess he knows his role is limited and doesn’t want to sacrifice his health for a little football glory.
    Although I don’t get what his role really is, maybe the money sign has some occultic significance. He needs to trade his inflatable white SWAN for a black one.

    • Forgot to mention that the highly publicized #6 #2 QB controversy (or 2-6) in Cleveland achieved denouement last week when the Browns inexplicably decided to start the rookie although they were still in the playoff hunt. Definitely the order came down from the higher-ups but the operators had their stooges in the sports media clamoring vehemently for the Browns to start Bozo the prior week and in a beautiful testament to the operators playing the masses ie dumb money, the Browns had gone to being a 4 point underdog at home in Vegas to actually being favored as the hype and the enthusiasm built up to Bozo’s inaugural start.

  38. TCU destroying the SEC “powerhouse” that defeated BAMA earlier this year, currently 35-0 in the Peach Bowl demonstrating what a sham the college playoffs are. TCU should have been one of the 4 finalists but got pushed out in the last vote because the powers that be wanted Ohio State in. Wisconsin fell over for its fellow Big 10 team 59-0 in the Big 10 championship game so that Ohio State could get in. I can see why the Wisconsin coach bolted to Oregon St. after that. The networks, the bowls ie hotels etc, the advertisers wanted the big name Ohio State in over the unwashed TCU although TCU does have a proud football tradition and was a power in the 30s.

    But the Michigan ritual trumps all of that.

      • Speaking of Bradley dates (the astro Bradley), there was one on December 26th which no one is talking about which means it will probably be the one that works although the late Nov. one and subsequent minor one in early December seemed to have worked. This late December rally is very similar to the B wave rally from double ninen although it did go to new highs for the big indices.

  39. Happy New Year’s Eve!!!!! Which brings us to the July 4 1921 Jack Nicholson photo at the end of the Shining which looks more like a New Years celebration than a July 4 celebration. Purpotedly, Kubrick obtained a real life photo and then had Nicholson’s image superimposed on the photo. It was possibly some sort of Federal Reserve event. Rob Ager has a Shining analysis of this on utube.

    Well, Lorde’s new video for Yellow Flicker Beat has a little tribute to this photo in it where in the middle of the video Lorde can be seen partaking in a 1920’s style New Year’s eve party and in one flash there is a shot staged just like the NIcholson photo with Lorde holding her arms in the same manner (as above so below).

    I’d post a link to the video but maybe later when I can do a more indepth analysis of the video.

    • Good wishes to you as well Doomster. Next year will be a wild one I’m sure. Should be a 5-10% correction early next year (like in January/February), then a rally to new highs again by mid-summer and then a bigger correction of 20% or more. Finally a Santa rally but I doubt if we close 2015 higher then the beginning of the year.

  40. Happy 2015 everyone!! I am now in Market Cast fulltime @TDAamertitrade >> trading fulltime>>> #PAWSOME
    If you tried to find a crash since 2010 when Red keeps calling them.. you definitely have lost your account! Be bi >>> buy and sell the way to go in markets. I am doing #futures fulltime #/DX
    #/6E #/TF #/NQ
    Have blessed 2015 and be well 🙂

  41. Well gang, we have the ol’ “Turn-around Tuesday” tomorrow. So what will it be? Will we gap down, fill the gaps on the various ETF’s from December 18th and then rally up the rest of the day? Or will we gap up and crap the rest of Tuesday and continue going down (past that 18th gap fill) into a suspected Thursday/Friday low?

  42. While there is likely a bounce coming Wednesday I do think there is more downside coming. I’d guess we’ll put in a low this Thursday/Friday and then a little stronger rally into next weeks’ option expiration. But I only see it a putting a lower high as I do expect more downside this month of January.

    In fact I think we’ll bottom right in the middle of the coming FOMC Statement January 28-29th (http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm) as it lines up perfectly with the Legatus meeting January 29-31st (http://www.legatus.org/magazine).

    The technical’s in the charts certainly support a 2-4 week move down and that would be about 4 weeks. Baring the possible manipulation of the TA’s I’d expect the “turn” (back up) to start around the 29th based on all 3 things lining up together (meaning the FOMC date, Legatus meeting and the technical analysis forecast).

  43. I am calling for a 1 day pop for tomorrow. $ndx got down to its December lows today; SP and Dow not so much but the $ndx didn’t get down to a similar support level from March 2000, 3 days down into its decline before popping. Parabolic SAR daily support points were taken out yesterday so a counter move upcoming. Same thing happened in $ndx April 2000 but I am just tinkering with Parabolic SAR as a trend indicator, new little plaything.

    Some others are calling for a bounce so maybe it continues downward but a certain little component of a certain little indicator would be fast getting to oversold levels whilst the certain little indicator is still arriving at its 50 day moving average.

    Lots of vague techno speak there. Still need to comment on the Michigan ritual and Johnny Bozo (Ritualee). I did find a 1987 connection to Ohio State as well…..(just a morsel for those curious…Oregon did play Ohio St in 1987) So it helps to explain the Buckeye’s amazing defeat of BAMA, once again led by their 3rd string QB. BAMA getting so much occultic airplay that I thought for sure they had a date of destiny set up with Oregon. But the operators and Vegas cleaned up with that result while still fulfilling their 1987 rituals.

  44. The mid-October bottom and rally that followed was straight up with no real pullback or retest of the low to make a double bottom or lower low. Then it happened again with a mid-December bottom and another straight up rock to the moon rally.

    Is this the first day of a 3rd rocket rally or will the fool the sheep and tank it tomorrow and/or Friday to make a lower low before another face ripper? Past history shows that Skynet tricks the sheep on the 3rd attempt of any recognizable pattern.

    I get the feeling we’re going back down to make a lower low either Thursday or Friday. I don’t know if it’s going to start right after the FOMC minutes today or if they close up near the high today and then gap it down tomorrow but I do think that the move down isn’t done yet.

  45. Didn’t get the purpose of the Interview ritual/ publicity stunt but it is the Supreme Leader’s 32nd birthday tomorrow so let’s see if that might have a bearing on the ritual. I can’t remember if they were celebrating his bday when they were honeybleeping each other. I guess I need to head to the Wiki recap.

    Today a certain little indicator did drop below its 50 day average even though it was flattish for the day—ie its component bounced nearly back to the 0 line. The 50 day average is rising though.
    The 5 and 8 day averages are on the verge of crossing with the 5 heading below the latter which would be a stronger confirmation sell signal.

    • What “Supreme Leader” are you referring too? The Pope (Dark Sidious from Star Wars), The Queen (Vampire Akasha from “Queen of the Dammed” movie), or Lord Obama (the fool in satan’s service?

  46. Breaking news!!!! One of the best 1987 rituals has just unfolded. The 1987 Superbowl losing Denver Broncos have just sacked their entire coaching staff one year after reaching a Super Bowl in which they were massacred by the Seattle PEDHawks in a ritualistic replay of the 1987 and 1988 Superbowls. They were eliminated over the weekend as their celebrated QB leader Popgun churned out another playoff one and done turd losing to his previous team, Indy Colts, helmed by his successor #12, 24-13. We will probably see Popgun announce his retirement but I was expecting him to wait until denouement has taken place.

    Since they have run out of rituals for the Superbowl, I’m guessing denouement commences before the next one. After all the previous SB winners were: NO (Mardi Gras), 1929 champs Green Bay, 1987 champs NY Giants, 2000 tech bubble popping champs Baltimore Ravens, and last year’s loser, the 1987/88 Superbowl destroyee Denver Broncos, (curiously last year’s SB champ Seattle was also the team to hold the #1 pick in the NFL draft in last year’s Kevin Costner draft flick…Costner’s team, the Browns, are situated in the Bradley city of Cleveland,currently home to Johnny Bozo and LeBron, both of whom appeared in a commercial together last year before it was known either one was headed to Cleveland).

      • The only thing numerologically or ritually that I got from last week’s NFL playoff action was that #12s will be playing featured roles for the Final 4 teams, 3 being led by QB #12s, while the other, last year’s champs have their infamous 12th man.

        Two teams, the 1929 champ Packers and the Belacheats, have famed 12-87 QB WR combos. Although the Colts do have 12-87 QB receiver combo, #87 is getting a little long in the tooth and has been supplanted by WR #13 for more of a 12-13 combo.

  47. Ok I don’t feel like spending anymore time on the college championship game tonight so I will just summarize things. The game is centered around OSU coach Urban Meyer who was on the OSU coaching staff in 1987. Oregon and OSU played each other in 1987 with Ohio State winning. The ritual might be centered around Urban Meyer but Oregon is the better team and I see them winning. They’re missing one of their star receivers which the media is playing up so the operators seem to be steering the masses to Ohio St. The 3rd string QB, playing in the Big 10 reality is going to come back to haunt them in this game as they go up against the Heisman QB led Ducks.

    I’ll save my occultic analysis for a later post.

    • Well, here’s a wee bit of occultic analysis:

      Although, Eugene Oregon is a Bradley city, I don’t see a ritualistic reason for Oregon to defeat Ohio State other than that they are the superior team. The date of their 1987 matchup, September 19,1987 (probably their last match?) probably has more occutlic significance that the actual game. Since Urban Meyer was on OSU’s coaching staff then, the ritual will be centered on him but I don’t know if that is enough to swing the odds to OSU’s favor.

      Meyer of course won championships at Florida several years ago with Tebow as his quarterback most notably on January 8, 2009 or 6 years 4 months ago in Tebow’s famous 316 (John 3:16 eyeblack) game.(against Oklahoma)

      • wtf does this has to do with the market!!!! enough already with this non sense crap. Give it a rest man.

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