Global Currency Reset Stock Market Crash Or Both?

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Is Christine Lagarde fooling the sheep or telling the truth?

(to watch on youtube: www.youtube.com/watch?v=_jkSp18v0Dw)

I delayed writing this post for over a week as I just didn't think it was going to happen.  Past history shows that every time we sheep hear something on the internet that is supposed to happen, and therefore we short the stock market, we end up getting screwed when the market rallies and the event date passes with nothing much happening.

But... is this time different?

I really wish I knew the answer there but I don't?  The last 5 years have been a huge learning experience for me personally as I only started this blog to post my own thoughts about where the stock market was going to next.  I never decided to take the "red pill" and become a conspiracy blog poster.  In fact I never would have went down the rabbit hole if I hadn't seen my first FP (fake print) back on January 11th, 2010 showing a 97 point drop in the SPX that day when it really only traded in a 5 point range or so.

That lead me down the path to learning that the stock was 100% rigged... and always has been rigged since it was created many, many years ago.  It's designed to steal money from the average long term investor sheep that doesn't trade the market everyday but puts in his or her savings into a 401k plan with the hopes of having a nice nest egg to retire on one day.

The gangsters the run the market (they are called the Illuminati, the Cabal, the Free Masons, but they are all the same) created this system so they could use these sheeps' money to pay for large projects they build in other countries where they find cheap labor to replace the current labor force in the current country.  Meaning that they have the sheep in a country like America pay to have their jobs replaced by cheaper labor in a third world country.

Basically they crash the stock market from time to time to steal that money to pay for the building of the infrastructure of that third world country.  The money they steal from the sheep from their retirement plans being cut in half goes to pay for the final outsourcing of the sheeps' jobs to that third world country.  So when you hear a president come on TV and say that he is going to help "level the playing field" by creating jobs in one of those countries you now know that he simply means that he plans on replacing your high dollar job with someone cheaper.

The last stock market crash in 2008 was done to pay for the infrastructure of India...

The next stock market crash will be done to pay the infrastructure of another third world country that has even cheaper labor then America or India does.  People there work for a dollar a day I'm told... which means that the gangsters that control the world can put a lot more money in their pocket by paying those people the pay YOU!

If you think they will replace you with a machine or robot you're wrong!  You'll be replaced with another human that is less educated then you and will work for far less then you currently make.  The biggest "outsourcing" of YOU is scheduled to be completed in 2017... which means you can expect a HUGE Stock Market Crash to start that year as it's the LARGEST project ever built, and that means it will be this biggest crash since 1929 as well.

But I'm getting off topic hear aren't I?

Sorry, but one of the things I always do is just write whatever comes to mind at the time.  That means I go off topic from time to time as the thoughts just pour into my head.  In fact, I never script anything or go back and change any videos.  If I screw up in something I said I just keep on talking and post it anyway.  Going back and editing out the "hmmm's and uh's" is a waste of time as I'm just as human as you are and make ton's of mistakes.

One of those is the penny stock newsletter.  While I'm still struggling to understand this game so I can help all of you make money from it my partner and I are frustrated with alerts we've sent out.  All the recent companies we've researched thoroughly and know that they all have huge potential.  But it seems that they can't seem to get going to the upside even when a lot of other groups also see the potential and alert their members too.

However, that's another story.  I don't have time to go into details about it now as I've got to tell you about what I see happening the stock market right now.  Meaning that this Christine Lagarde video is something I must cover again.  While I did a post on it back in January (http://reddragonleo.com/2014/01/20/when-will-the-stock-market-bubble-burst), and even though the date I forecasted back then was wrong the video itself is something worth revisiting.

I know that in the past 5 years I've gotten caught up in this "red pill" stuff and went short the market based on it... only to see the market rally and kill my position, some how this time "could" really be different?  While I don't have a crystal ball I will say that I've never actually heard one of the gangsters (the elite... as in, Christine Lagarde) publicly say something that pointed to an "event happening" and a "date" for it.  Truly this is a first... at least for me!

I'm probably 100% wrong on this call as I feel I'm the only person bearish right now...

Here's my thoughts... Lagarde is telling the truth as she is clearing saying that we are going to experience a big correction in the market this year.  Why?  Because it's a "magical year" as she clearly pointed out how important the number 7 is to the elite.  The question is... what is the date she is talking about?  And what is it that is planned to happen?  Will it be a "Global Current Reset" as Lindsey Williams said will happen, or will it just be some other reason for them to tank the stock market?  I don't know "what" the event is but the date does seem to be set in July of 2014 as 2+0+1+4=7 and July is the 7th month.  The only thing left is the date of the month... which the 7th, 16th, and 25th all equal a 7, but which one?  When combined with the month and year you'll have "magical" 777 day!

I'm speculating that it's on the 16th because of this Bradley turn date that peaks on the 16th...

(to watch on youtube: www.youtube.com/watch?v=QYmViPTndxw)

 

Now of course I could be off and the date could be the 25th, but I must admit that "if" we some how put in high, low, open or closing price on Wednesday the 16th (a 777 day) of 1977.77 SPX or 197.77 SPY I'd be extremely excited about shorting the market as that would be a signal to the "Illuminated Ones" (which I'm not one of but trying to figure out their signals) that the top was in.  Most people don't remember August 25th, 1987 other then that was the high for the year of 1987 but the crash was of course on "Black Monday" October 19th, 1987.

However, on that date the SPX put in an intraday high of 337.88... which the 88 is of course a master number meaning "11", but more importantly was the "not noticed" (except by the "Illuminated Assholes") intraday low of... [insert drum roll here] 333.33!  YES, they put a clear signal that the top was in that day!  Did you see it or know it?  Not likely... in fact I only noticed it about a year ago after I started added numerology in my day to day chart analysis.  Does it mean any?  You tell me... does the March 6th, 2009 low of 666 mean anything?

Maybe I'm totally nuts and ritual numbers in the market are just random events, or maybe the market really is run by vampires called "reptilian shape-shifter"?  People believed in demons centuries ago but modern man doesn't seem to think stuff like this is real... why?  If they were real back then what makes you think that they some how disappeared today?  If they ruled the sheep back then why shouldn't they still be ruling the sheep now?  They just go underground (so to speak) and hide from the public, but they still run the show.  In fact, the oldest vampires are probably in the Rothschild family and are the one's responsible for shooting down that plane in Malaysia.  There was a team of 4 Chinese inventors that held a patent for 80% (20% between each of them) for something still unknown, with FreeScale Semiconductor owning the remaining 20% of the invention.

Now the interesting thing is that FreeScale is owned by the group building the new infrastructure (to eliminate YOUR job) which is called the Blackstone Group.  And Blackstone is own by the Rothschild vampires... so do the math!  They shot down the plane to get 100% of the patent as the legal contract stated that in the event of one of the parties dying the remaining percentage of would be split among the surviving members.  Therefore, if you kill 4 people that own 80% of the patent the remaining company called FreeScale would then get all of that and own 100%, not the original 20% (nothing new here as the same vampires sunk the Titanic too, but that's another story).

Getting back on track again...

Again, I must apology as I sometimes just drift onto subjects that are off topic and I'm sure you don't care about that other stuff and just want and update on the stock market so you can make money from it. My thoughts have been simple really... a ritual number should but put in on Wednesday the 16th of 2014 to indicate that an important top is it.  My "human side" tells me that they will take the market higher but recently I've been "talking to myself... LOL" for a lack of understanding and I've been told to short on Wednesday and that it would be a very important top... and that this Lagarde thing is real.

Personally I don't believe my "inter-voice" yet, as I've only recently (the last 2 weeks) been talking to it (yeah, if you didn't already think I was crazy you do now).  I mean, come on now...  I'll be 50 years old (although I look much, much younger... probably the blue eyes and blonde hair) this coming August 10th, 2014 (yes, I was born the year of the dragon in 1964 and the month of Leo... hence the name of this site) and I have to say that I feel like I'm only 30 years old.  Crazy huh?  It's probably because I never got married or had any kids to stress me out... LOL!

Anyway, this voice in my head has told me 4 correct calls in a row and I took 3 of them to make a bunch of money.  I didn't take the Monday the 7th call was to get short within the first 30 minutes on the expect bounce.  Needless to say I was dumb for missing out on that call and not listening to my inter-voice.  I did listen and I placed a short on the 9th right at the last 30 minutes of the day.  I think I tripled my money on that call (it was a put spread that expired that week... very risky).  Then I went long at the bottom (missed it by a 1-2 points) on 7-10 as my inter-voice told me to sell and go long into this coming Wednesday the 16th.

However, stupid me closed out my call spread on Friday before Monday's rally up.  So while I still made about 40% gain I could have made about 80% if I had listened to myself telling me what to do.  This voice tells me to short the crap out of Wednesday's move with the expected high to happen by the noon time hour.  I can't explain it but I've made a bunch of money on taking the 3 of 4 of these predictions with all 4 of them being correct.  It's hard from me to believe that suddenly I've been in contact with my immortal soul (or directly with God himself/herself... LOL) but I've prayed about it months now.  I really wanted to connect with myself through my pineal gland like all the gangsters do to connect to Satan.

But while others have been able to see visions and stuff I've seen nothing.  I still see nothing.  I'm probably nuts for even posting this publicly but myself tells me to do it... LOL!  Well, there's nothing like pouring out your heart publicly I guess.  So I'll just say again that I strongly believe tomorrow is an important day to take a short position.  I don't know if there is going to be a "Global Currency Reset" like many think will happen (and Christine Lagarde hints at without saying directly) but the charts are very bearish and even without such an event we should be in a short position.

Here's the previous notes that I posted back in January...

  • 2014 will be a magic year (meaning what?  will you pull a rabbit out your hat?  will you steal money from the sheep without them seeing you do it?)
  • 100th anniversary of the first world war in 1914 (strangely when I researched what happened to the DOW back then it was closed down for several months due to the first world war starting.  are we expecting the same here? REFERENCE: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/02/most-long-term-charts-of-djia-are-wrong, http://measuringworth.com/DJA, https://www.globalfinancialdata.com/gfdblog/?p=1426 )
  • 70th anniversary of the Bretton Woods Conference that gave birth to the IMF. (The delegates deliberated during 1–22 July 1944, and signed the Agreement on its final day. REFERENCE: https://www.google.com/search?q=first+bretton+woods+conference+date&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a&channel=fflb Not sure what the hidden message was here?)
  • 25th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin wall (Destruction date: November 9, 1989… but what is she hinting at here?  Is the “buzz word” the “25th”or the “fall”?  Does the 25th mean a certain future date or does the word “fall” indicate that the market will fall hard?)
  • 7th anniversary of the financial market jitters. (again with the focus on the number 7… meaning what?  are we looking for another move down similar to 2008?)
  • The crisis still lingers… (clearly this means we are going down again)
  • It will not happen randomly… (of course not, it’s always planned)
  • “Global growth is still stuck in low gear” (Hmmm… just a fall guy to blame I guess?  We tank and it’s the fault of slowing global growth)
  • It will not be without downside risks, and significant ones (referring to inflation… or was it really meant to refer to the stock market?)
  • We are seeing rising risks of deflation… (good for us sheep but bad for them)
  • Global growth slowing down as the economy cycle turns… (the “buzz word” that stands out to me there is “cycle turns”)
  • Risk of capital runs… (You really mean the gangsters are moving their money out the market before the collapse)
  • Dry run back in May of 2013… (Ah yes, the old test where Bernanke hinted at pulling money out the market last year)
  • There could still be some rough waters ahead of us… (another clear warning that they plan on taking the market down)
  • Overall, the direction is positive (meaning after the downturn the market we’ll go back up again, which should be a final Primary Wave 5 up with this coming correction next month being a nasty Primary Wave 4 down)
  • 95% of the income growth went to the top 1% (Duh… nothing new there as that was always the plan!  Steal from the sheep and give to the wolves)
  • Tapering will have too be very well timed… (again, she’s clearly staying that we are going to withdraw money from the market)
  • Central banks will have to “undo” what they’ve done… (and again, more references to cutting back the stimulus?)
  • Removing the threat of the debt ceiling… (meaning what?  They won’t set one, or make it unlimited?  I don’t know what she means with this sentence?)
  • A stress test will be done in 2014… (Why?  You already know the banks would all fail.  I guess they have to blame the correction on something)

I'll point out that unless you are truly one of the elite it's not obvious to the date of the event or the actual event itself.   It's only obvious that we are in for some rough waters in this magical year of 2014.   Does that mean we tank in the stock market?  Does that mean we have a global currency reset?  I just don't know the answers there but I sure do think this market is ready to take a nose dive.  So assuming we don't gap up 10+ points on the 16th I'll be looking for some ritual number (like 1977.77 SPX or 197.77 SPY) to be hit early on which I'll be shorting for a ride down to 1900-1920 SPX area in the coming weeks (or less?).

Red...

 

306 COMMENTS

  1. Some good points in there..but right now..I’m just going to assume we sail up through SPX 2000 and who knows how much higher. If the powers that be decide they want Hillary to be POTUS..we can pretty well bet there won’t be any big corrections until AFTER she’s elected.- I was in high school after the 1987 crash that made everybody think we were going to go into a 1929 style depression….but all these years later we can see that it was nothing more than a trick flush to keep as many out of the super rally of the 1990’s that really ushered in the multi-billionaire era for the U.S.. The 2008 crash may be this generations 1987 crash..and if it is..we may have many years left in this rally that will be impossible to know when the top might be. Could be in 18 months at Dow 19.500. Or it might be in 8 years at Dow 27,000.- Anyway..we shall see..but it looks like we’re going to be up another 100 Dow points right out of the gate. Unless the market somehow drops 8 to 10 % in the near future…we may have a 3 headed fire breathing bull with very sharp teeth here that sticks around a lot longer than most of us can imagine.

    • Yeah, I keep thinking that they will take out the shorts overhead first, which means a new high. The ritual numbers are just a guess, so possibly there will be some other numbers that we’ll spot at the new high?

      • Well I started playing in the early 1990’s when the Dow was at about 3000,a huge major all time high at the time..which was just over an all time double top high from 1987’s all time high of about 2750.Big headlines back then. And 99% of the so called “experts” were positive the market had come too far..too fast..and would drop back to around Dow 2000..and trade in a 10 to 15% range for many,many years. And that sounded logical. Of course in just about 7 years we had broken all the rules, and the Dow was 4 times higher at Dow 12,000. I saw lots of analysts go broke and get fired back then for being out of the loop.
        And I’m sure not predicting anything like the 1990’s happening here yet..but it shows that it can happen..and would not be unprecedented if it did.
        Personally for trading purposes..I’d love to see the market drop like a rock for a couple of months. But I ain’t counting on it. 🙂

        • We’ll have a correction of 200-400 SPX points before we run up to 30,000 DOW into 2017. It will be similar to the 2011 sell off and will be called Primary Wave 4 down while that prior one was called Primary Wave 2 down. Currently we are in Primary Wave 3 up and it will end at some point.
          Then we have our big correction for Primary Wave 4 down and that’s when all the bears think the world is ending… which is when Primary Wave 5 up will take us to new crazy all time highs into 2017. But short term we could have topped today?
          If so then we should see a drop to that 1900-1920 area in the coming weeks. Then we’ll make another run higher and take out 2000 on the SPX. Right now I think too many people see this double top and are expecting it to bust up higher… therefore it’s not likely to happen today.

          • If you’re going to have a 1929 style crash you need to have a run up like it… which we will I believe as I do think they are planning another big one but not this year. I think it starts in 2017.

          • I don’t think we ever see a 1929 kind of crash again. A 90% drop in the Dow and S&P,with an extended sideways period at the bottom would absolutely kill the U.S. off, and we have too many safe-guards and kill switches in place now even if it seemed something like that was starting.-But nobody at our level really knows anything for sure.- But for now..I’m just looking at the near term picture..and so far..today looks pretty strong in most key sectors. The S&P.the Transports and the COMP are all strong as hell here. And the COMP/NASDAQ is turning into a monster here..and I have a feeling it’s dead set at finally getting back to it’s all time high over 5000 made all the way back in the year 2000.At almost 4450 here..a 14 year high..it doesn’t have all that far to go. Worth keeping an eye on from here everyday.And of course the Transports..pretty much “THE” leading economic indicator has been pretty much making multiple new daily all time highs for the last 18 months. Up another 57 pts today over 8400 for the very first time. A very nasty situation for those trying to look smart calling tops.

          • I’m just watching for now… no position taken yet. I want to see if they can make a higher high during the lunch time noon period when the volume is the lightest. If they can’t then I think we’ll sell off into next week… slowly of course as this is still opx week and not likely to have a big drop.

  2. Well, I didn’t short the top but I did take a half position just about 10 minutes ago around 1979.50 SPX, so I’ll take another half tomorrow if we pop higher.

  3. Thursday is a 22 day as 7+1+7+2+0+1+4=22, and as we all know that is an eleven… which are sometimes tops or bottoms. Not always of course but it is a ritual number for “them”. So “if” today doesn’t put in the top then I think we’ll see it at the open tomorrow.

    Most likely it will be a pierce of the double top area to clear out all the bears’ stops above 1986 SPX. While this is the normal pattern it’s by no means a guarantee. For all I know the bears could have already flipped to become bulls thinking we are going to rally much higher toward 2000.

    Whatever SkyNet see’s it’s going to take action to steal the most money possible. If there isn’t too many stops overhead and there are more bulls long then we’ll see a move down tomorrow without the gap up. In fact, we could even gap down and continue all day.

    If we gap down then I’m happy with my half short position. If we gap up I’ll add a second half short position as I believe we will go down on Friday and into early next week. While I’m sure we’ll take out 2000 at some point we should drop lower first to that 1900-1920 area to get some bears short that can be squeezed all the way up to a new all time high.

    I just get the feeling that everyone is long right now expecting 2000 to be hit soon. They keep buying every dip looking for that breakout rally move up. But if everyone is on the same side then you know SkyNet will take their money.

    So I’ll give it a 50/50 chance of a slightly higher high tomorrow to clear out the last bears’ stops and then a move down into the rest of the day, Friday and next week with that downside target being the goal before we make another big rally attempt.

    • Red… what about the iphone and “siri” what is july 27 2014…. opening the gates to hedes??? Does that fit into your numbers.. some how??
      Thanks for all your hard work.

      • I’m assuming you are talking about this: http://chartistfriend.blogspot.com/2014/07/christine-lagarde-and-opening-gates-of.html#more

        Well yeah, it’s something to think about for sure. I can’t trade off of it though as every time in the past we thought something bad was going to happen it never did. It was always “misdirection” for us sheep to look at, and getting short based only on such a prediction always lost me money in the past.

        Not this time. While it’s possible we could pop up tomorrow above 1986 SPX at the open for a quick stop sweep the charts say we are going down next week. So my trading now is more focused on gathering good information about past history, trends for this month, week, and day, buying volume, etc… and less on scary stories.

        I’m sure they will at some point actually do the global currency reset but I doubt if I or anyone else is going to guess the date correctly. Maybe it does happen on the 27th… or the 20th? I just don’t know? But the market is ready to go down anyway.

        We hit our Bradley turn date today as well. Here’s that link in case you missed it? It’s on page 4 of that newsletter: http://reddragonleo.com/media/newsletter-e.pdf

  4. Dow down 51 pts at the low.- We need follow through down action into next week here if we’re going to get to that SPX 1920 target area.

      • Yea..but I think this Malaysia passenger jet,that “might” have just got shot down..has put some pressure on the markets that will last at least for today. Still a rumor..but there is definitely another Malaysian passenger aircraft missing right now…and it seems to be having at least some affect on the market for the moment. We shall see.

        • The news is always there after the charts foretell the move. The charts said we should go down and continue into Monday and the news was just the reason to blame it on.

          • Well lets just we if we get back below Dow 17,000..and stay south of there, “if “we do. – Crucial to opening up the range here for trading purposes.- Looks like the market is in a “wait & see limbo” mode here at the moment.

          • Support is around 1960 SPX, which if we gapped down tomorrow and hit it (or hit it today?) I’d exit my shorts and wait for a bounce to reload again for the weekend. Not sure where that’s at on the DOW though?

          • SPX 1960 will get the Dow just under 17K..maybe 16,950 to 16,970.So anybody that wants to see this thing open up with some wider ranges..will be rooting all key indexes to take a good hit today and or tmrw.- The last decent little pullback a few days ago,the Dow stopped hard at 17,006..so it’s already a factor.- Next Monday will certainly be key…but I can’t wait to see how we close and then what happens tmrw.- It “might” get fun here again for a little while. Maybe. 🙂

    • Cool. I’m holding 20 SPY Sept 195 puts..and I’m just going to take a chance we go lower into next week..even if we get a little rebound tomorrow. If we don’t get a good move down from here to at least your target of 1920..then I don’t know what to think.

      • That 1920 area should be the next big support level. So While I think we’ll rally some tomorrow I’m not expecting much upside until that downside level is hit. The bounce tomorrow should be an ABC move up but could be choppy.

        I think the best time to short will be close to the end of the day, but not at 4:00pm as I’m sure there will be scared longs wanting out before a weekend. Monday’s are usually down so I’ll look to rebuy my same put spread… which was a 197/193.

        Meaning I bought the 197 and sold the 193 put. The max profit is $4.00 per contract but you never get that. Even if it expires right at 193 next Friday the market maker will take some. The best possible is more like $3.80 to $3.90 per contract.

        However, I don’t plan on holding it that long as I think Monday we’ll see a bottom somewhere as I counted 3 waves so far and if tomorrow is the 4th wave (up) then we should see the 5th wave down on Monday.

        That should end the selling for several days I’d think as that whole 5 wave pattern will make up a larger A wave down (or Wave 1?) which means we should see a B wave up that could last into Wednesday or Thursday of next week.

        Then we’ll see where we are at that time…

        • Ok. thanks. The futz are already down 9 points..so tomorrow “could ” be interesting. 1920 may come real quick if it is.

          • I suspect we’ll open tomorrow down and rally pretty quickly… not big. However I think the move up will be over with by noon to 2pm and then we’ll head back down again. It’s Monday that will be interesting.

  5. I’m looking for 5 waves down in total. I believe we’ve had the wave 1 down now and should be having a choppy (ABC) wave 2 up for the next few hours. Then at some point it should rollover and start the wave 3 down.

    Then the wave 4 up and 5 down should happen into Tuesday from the looks of it. Tuesday is usually a tricky day… hence the nickname “Turn-around Tuesday”. So if the 1955 SPX low is tested today and breaks then I think it will bleed into Tuesday morning and produce that low in the 1925-1930 area, at which point the bottom would be in and the market would “turn-around” and start a rally as the name suggests.

  6. Still holding my 20 SPY Sept 195 puts of course. Got plenty of time..but what I need to see from here. for a nice payday.. is the Dow closing lower and lower BELOW 17,000..and get the SPX below 1950.- We shall see…odds look about 50/50 for that right at the moment.

    • Yes, we are in the choppy wave 2 up now I think. Could last all day? Might retest the downward sloping trendline even? Hard too tell right now. Pattern wise we have an inverted head and shoulders, which is bullish of course.

      But, if it fails (and I think it will) we should drop in a wave 3 down (inside a larger wave C down) that should take us below the 1944, 1952, and 1955 bottoms to clear out all the stops below. Then I guess we’ll resume the uptrend.

  7. I exited my shorts today for .60 cents as I’m not sure about Tuesday? The rally back up was more then I’d expected. So I’m flat going into tomorrow and would look to short it if it gaps up to just below the prior high of 197.91 SPY.

    Should it gap down then I will have missed the move as it will certainly cost more to buy back my position. I could have sold for close to .90 cents (not sure exactly how much it was?) near the 196.50 area low. But I held on because I was expecting a weak wave 2 up (with the gap down being the wave 1).

    So I missed a lot of profit on that one but you can’t know everything I guess. I bought the position Friday for .50 cents so I’m happy with the profit I did take. In the event of a gap down I may or may not re-enter the short position. It will depend on how high the quick morning gap fill rally back up takes us? If it’s the wave 3 down I’m expecting then that quick move back up in the first 10 minutes should be shallow and brief.

    Meaning I might not get a good entry and would have to pay more for the same put spread. I’ll have too think on it before re-entering as I’m still kicking myself for not selling at the 197.50 SPY support area. Selling is my hardest thing to master…. LOL!

  8. Hmmm… Tuesday, July 22nd, 2014 is 0+7+2+2+2+0+1+4=18… and 1+8=9 (or if you leave the 22 as a whole you get 0+7+[22]+2+0+1+4=36… and 3+6=9 still). Completion of a move Tuesday?

  9. Well gang, obviously we’ve made a new high and broken through that chart I posted before the open. At this point I’m in cash and won’t take any position until I see what happens at the close. If we do not sell off any at all then we have probably put in the low and are on our way up to 2020 SPX into next week.

    The pattern it will make will of course be a bull flag and from the looks of the technical’s in the charts there is clear signs of this market wanting to turn back up on the larger time frame like the daily chart. While it could fool us and drop lower we really haven’t experienced too many fakeouts in the past related to the bulls.

    On the other hand they seems to always fakeout the bears with selloffs that get bought right back up erasing all the gains the bears may have gotten. So I’m leaning bullish if we hold these gains into the close. A selloff into the close will put me back into a neutral “wait and see” mode.

    • Red, This is the democratic mid-term election and they are scared to death for losing seats. They will push this market ever higher. So that the Liar-in-chief can look you in the eyes and show you how awesome the market is doing. But we know its only an illusion of wealth for the Sheeple.

      • Well one thing is certain there Amy… they all are a bunch of self serving crooks (except for Ron Paul and and his son Rand Paul). I’m expecting a melt up into September for the up coming Legatus meeting. Not sure what the high will be but over 2000 is guaranteed.

        Most likely they will go up toward 2100 SPX but I’m not sure if they will make it or not? I’m kinda expecting a pullback to that 1920-1930 area before resuming the climb toward 2100 but at this point I think we’ll hit 2000 SPX by this Friday and then drop some next week prior to the FOMC meeting on Wednesday.

        Then that meeting should spark a move to 2020 or so before the bulls exhaust themselves and we see a nice 80-100 point pullback. If this happens like I expect then that move down will be some kind of wave 4 down with a final wave 5 up into early September for the completion of the Primary Wave 3 up that started in 2011.

        Once we end Primary Wave 3 up we’ll see a 200-400 point drop for Primary Wave 4 down… which I think will happen in the September to November time frame. Then we start Primary Wave 5 up that takes us into 2017 for some insane blowoff top of 30,000 DOW or more.

        After that we have about a 3 year crash bigger then 1929… but that’s a long way off yet.

        P.S. I took a 20% long position into tomorrow and Friday as I think we’ll see 2000 by this Friday. We’ll see I guess…

  10. I closed out my call spread for a small gain. Paid .50 cents for it and sold it for .61 cents. I did that because we are hitting resistance and I’m expecting a small pullback. Nothing worth playing on the downside but I’ll look to re-enter into a long position once it happens.

    I suspect we’ll see it later today into the close or Thursday morning at the open. It’s back to “buy the dip” for now as I strongly believe we are going higher Friday and into next week as well. Don’t be surprise when we push through 2000 to hit 2020 sometime next week.

    • I hope it just slowly goes down, churns around 1925 and then makes for lower lows in months ahead this Fall. Maybe, or never, who knows!? Gap fill Jan 1, 2013 looms large in my mind at 1425.

      • I think we’ll see 2070-2080 SPX area before we top out. Then we should start down. Don’t know how far it will fall but that 1925 zone is out of the question for now I think.

  11. The SP closed at 1987.01 on a little doji LOL!!!!! Where’s the Sun man? We need his commentary.

    At today’s high of 1989.23 minus 666.79====1322.44 which is 44s or 16!!!!

    I came across a play and later movie, the Royal Hunt of the Sun which might be grand ritual specific and the movie version starred Christopher Plummer!!!!! with Robert Shaw and some other famous actors yet I have never heard of it like IF ITS TUESDAY, IT MUST BE BELGIUM released in the same year, a year dear to my heart.

    Ian McShane, star of the BELGIUM flick will be appearing in the soon to be released HERCULES. In the trailer, there is some mention of HADES opening up and releasing all of its occupants who will be pitted against Hercules. This will be the second Hercules flick to be released this year. I guess Hercules and his 12 Labors are grand ritual specific particularly his labors against Cancer the CRAB and LEO the lion. During his future endeavours, he wears the Nemean Lion’s skin after he slays the lion. Somehow, this is tied into the Jupiter Ascending theme.

    • Interesting to watch the new moon move across the sky as it heads towards the morning star Venus and Mercury which is heliacal rising at the moment….but I was unable to see it in the morning sky. Saw it(moon) next to a star yesterday morning….apparently Alderberan ???? the star in Germini near the Pleiades.

    • Even better, Chistopher Plummer plays the INCAN emperor. We know he likes his occultic roles ie BarryMORE. What a strange looking film from the brief clip I saw. Plummer is just bizarre.

  12. The plan of action today is to wait for the dip to get long into next week. The 60 minute chart needs to reset and it could be midday before that happens. While one could short this small gap up the risk/reward isn’t good. Will there be a pullback? If so, how low?

    Personally I don’t think it will be very much at all. Certainly not worth playing to the downside. But the charts say there will be some type of pullback happen and it should happen sometime today. That’s when I’d look to go long into next week as chasing it up here isn’t something I’m willing to do.

  13. How are you doing trading based on your gann square method? I’m using a multitude of trading methods personally as I find just using one doesn’t always work for me.

  14. I’m looking for 1980-1983 SPX to get long into next week. It doesn’t look like we’ll get it today. If SkyNet let’s us have it we should see it in the morning near the open tomorrow. Blame the down move on some economic report or something but it’s all in the technicals of the charts as well as the Elliiottwave count.

    There needs to be this move down before a hard bear squeeze up to 2000+ starts. Can’t guarantee we’ll get it but I won’t go long until I see that pullback. If we get it the charts will be reset to a bullish mode and allow a nice rip higher into next week.

    Bears will have their fun once we top out in the 2060-2080 SPX zone. But the real fun for the bears should be this September and October as I think we’ll see our Primary Wave 4 down happen (finally) that should give us 200-400 SPX points.

  15. It looks like we’ll get a heliacal rising of the soon to be new moon, Mercury, and Venus all in the same vicinity tomorrow morning. Didn’t get up early to see any of today’s activity. In fact, couldn’t sleep most of the night and noticed no moon out but I guess it rose around 4-00 am. The moon should conjunct with Venus in a few hours. Opposition to Pluto a few hours later.

    • Jupiter technically should be ascending as well. Probably too close to the sun to notice anything.

      Oh…which means Jupiter and the Sun are conjuncting right about now. Did venture over to the lucky days site recently and noticed his Sun Jupiter aspects as timing tools for the stock market. Of course, I always get interested in that site around Tebow’s birthday.

  16. Another LeCarre flick, A Most Wanted Man,is set to be released tomorrow, this time directed by the man who brought us Depeche Mode’s 1987 videos and one of my recent favorites, Arcade Fire’s Reflektor. He’s done most of Depeche Mode’s album cover work and photography as well as U2’s. He’s definitely what could be considered a “master” artist.

    It looks like he did a video for Depeche Mode last year that is set at various stops of their recent tour in Germany.

    A Most Wanted Man is set in Hamburg Germany and has to do with shipping containers with a shadowy Seven Friends company involved. (this from the trailer….I stopped reading the book…I rather see the denouement played out in the film)

    Hamburg Germany has interested me lately…actually for a while….The classic German film The American Friend based on a Patricia Highsmith Tom Ripley novel is set in Hamburg Germany and there is a scene with a burning ambulance on the beach. Somehow the beach and Germany has some “mystical” significance ie Rammstein’s Mein Land and a Ford commercial that has aired for awhile where a volleyballer on the beach is scene wearing bathing trunks in German colors.

    My little quest into Patricia Highsmith Tom Ripley novels eventually led me to the Royal Hunt of the Sun which may or may not have significance for tomorrow.

  17. I got the 198.5 calls that expire next Friday and sold the 200 calls in a call spread for .57 cents. I missed the low, which was .50 cents as it moved too fast on me.

  18. This move down broke the wave count I had and has changed the picture from bullish to bearish now. What I now see in the charts is a lower low coming after a bounce. How high the bounce goes is unknown? But if they rally this back up hard into the close today (not looking likely, but possible) that would setup Monday to be a down day… and probably a very ugly one!

    I think too many people got long expecting 2000 SPX to be hit and SkyNet sold off today to take out all those longs. Now there are lot’s of shorts that need to be taken out above 1990 SPX but that’s a long was off now.

    I think that if they only retrace half or so of today’s move down that we’ll likely continue up on Monday (Mutual Fund Monday as they like to call it). However… if by some strange chance we recover almost all of the move up and close just under the high yesterday then Monday could be a big down day!

    Why? Because it would have created a wave 1 down today and a wave 2 up into the close with a wave 3 down to follow. The charts certainly tell me that after a bounce up finishes there is another move down coming. The question is… when?

    Well, if you retrace 99% of the move all today then you don’t have any room left to go on the upside as you’ll be in the double top area with a slightly lower high. The 60 minute chart will then be ready to roll back down again and make that wave 3 down.

    I know it sounds crazy as a close up near (but under) yesterday’s high will look very bullish as it will put in a long bottoming tail candle on the daily chart but it’s not supported by the MACD’s and Histogram bars that say we’ll need a lower low to create the positive divergence.

    And if this happens you’d expect all the bears to have bailed out thinking there will be another higher high next week as we’ll close very near the high yesterday. It’s not likely they’ll be very many people shorting over the weekend. In fact I’d say most will go long expecting a new high into Monday and the rest of the week.

    But the charts will be telling a different story. You close near the high today and you’ll not have and bears short on Monday and nothing but bulls long. That would be the trickiest move of all I believe! No one would expect a big drop on Monday if we close positive today with a full reversal of this down move.

    I admit that I wasn’t expecting this far of a drop today as I think I got caught up in the “SPX 2000” mania and ignored what I was seeing in the charts. Yes, I seen this as a possibility but I just didn’t think they’d let it happen. With Yellen speaking next Wednesday for the FOMC meeting and practically all of the FOMC days being a positive day I ignored the charts and assumed they’d manipulate them again and not let it sell off.

    But that could be the biggest trick of all? To get everyone bullish into next week and then tank it on Monday. I’m not saying a crash, but simply another lower low then today. The best thing for the bulls is that they retrace a third to half of today’s move down. A full retrace would be very bearish for Monday.

    In fact, if we retrace this move entirely I’ll become a big bear for Monday and will flip to a short position. If not, then I’ll hold my longs into Monday and let them see how high they can get it up too? Maybe it’s done and they do go up to 2000+ next week, but that would only happen if they manipulate the charts at this point as another lower low is expected.

  19. Today is the last 777 day of this month and if by some strange coincidence they close the SPX at 1977.77 and/or the SPY at 197.77 then this Christine Lagarde video prediction could really happen over this weekend. I certainly hope it doesn’t…

  20. Nice analysis, but isn’t we missing that these dates must be ( MUST) in Lunar dates ? That means 20/7/2014 Lunar is 15/08/2014 ?

  21. From the looks of the charts and the futures Sunday night I’d say the worst of the selling is likely over now. Monday should be a choppy day as they carve out a bottom. While we could still go a little lower and even close negative this support line the market is resting on seems to want to hold.

    So I’d expect them to open up in the morning flat to slightly up and then dip back down early on. Then chop the rest of the day not really gaining much ground on the upside or downside. The close could be slightly positive or negative. If this happens as I expect then Tuesday we could see a big rally start up as the oversold charts will have turned back up and will be ready to move higher.

    Wednesday we got the FOMC meeting, so barring that Janet Yellen doesn’t say something stupid to tank the market I’d expect most of that day to be sideways going into the 2:30pm meeting. Then we could see a move higher again into the close as most FOMC days are positive with the close usually being near the high for the day.

    If 2000 SPX is broken during this next rally attempt then I’d look for 2015-2020 for a high before we rollover again and see some decent selling. The selling should be a nice 5% correction before we turn back up into late August and early September.

    But for now this bull still looks strong and doesn’t want to give up anymore ground to the bears in the overnight futures and by tomorrow we could even see them turn it positive by the open. The bears used up a lot on the MACD’s, Histogram Bars, and Stochastic last Friday and actually got short term oversold.

    While it’s possible we could have another move wave down in the market Monday/Tuesday it’s not looking likely now. We should see a rally back up to near the high again first (and most likely we’ll break it this time).

    Remember, Monday is “Mutual Fund Monday” so we should see the big institutions start buying to put that new money into the system. Then you have Wednesday’s FOMC meeting which we have around 80-90% of all meetings ending up closing positive and sparking a rally. Very few of them have tanked the market afterwards.

    You have the SPX still trying to get to 2000, the Nasdaq trying to get to 4500 and the Dow wanting to take back 17,000… so while I’m a bear at heart I’m bullish right now on this week’s outlook (at least the first half of the week).

  22. Ok, I think we’ve put in the low for the day. It looked like a final 5th wave down or C wave down, which should have completed the whole move. Now we should go up to start the wave 1 and then back down some into the close for the wave 2 down. Then the wave 3 up should start on Tuesday.

    It went a little lower then I was expecting but I’m still long (underwater on it of course, but nothing last forever). I had 7 winners in a row and this is my first losing trade… that’s if I sold now. But I’m still holding as I expect it to become a winner by Wednesday with the FOMC meeting.

    Of course it would have been nice if I had shorted this move down and then got long today, but I missed it. You can’t win them all I guess. I’m just happy to have had 7 in a row and possibly an 8th if it goes up to 2000 this week. Riding this out though hasn’t be fun and isn’t for the weak stomach.

    Options can swing wildly and be down 50% one day and up 200% the next. They are huge profit makers or money stealer’s. Even if I end up winning on this trade it’s still a loser in my mind as I did not take the short on Thursday and missed the best entry for the long today.

    Hopefully I’ll be more accurate on picking the top of this market later this week or early next week. I’m looking for just under 2000 (maybe 1997 SPX) on the low side and on the high side I’m looking for 2015-2020 SPX. A clear break of 2000 means we are likely going to the high side target. If we don’t take out 2000 by the close this Wednesday then that could be all we get?

    While I’m not expecting Yellen to say something negative I also don’t see anything positive from her either. So while everyone is expecting 2000 SPX a failure to get there would probably cause another larger wave down to start. If we clear it then they will run the bears stops all the way up to the higher target and then start the next move down.

    This next move down should be a nice one with 80-120 SPX points likely. I’d say we’ll be seeing that 1940’s area (or lower) for sure on that trip down. So let’s see what happens on Wednesday for a clue on the next move. Just based on the charts I’m kinda leaning toward a high just slightly under 2000 instead of the higher target range, but we’ll just have to wait and see.

  23. WOW… nice move up so far! I was expecting this to happen on Tuesday and end on Wednesday but I have to say that if this continues into the close I’ll flip my opinion on a top for Tuesday/Wednesday and say it will top today at the open Tuesday. Then We should drop again for another lower low.

    Needless to say I’ll be selling my longs today if we continue and going short into tomorrow. Probably a half position instead in case there is a brief gap up in the morning before we go back down again. I see a “possible” FP on the SPY from Friday of 198.70… so if that’s hit I’m out of my longs and going short.

      • Yes, you are correct. I think we are starting that larger wave C down to the 1940 SPX area. Should be small bounces along the way as this will likely be an ugly move down.

        I’m going to just wait patiently to see if there’s any bounces later today. If so then I’ll take a short position but right now I’m not doing anything as it’s like trying to catch a falling knife and I don’t want to get cut again…. LOL

        • agreed that I wouldn’t jump in now, I’m already (still) short so just keeping that going for now

  24. Well, I had to bail on that position at a loss gang. You can’t win them all I guess. I sold out for .25 cent and paid .57 cents. So number 8 was a loss, but the first 7 were winners. I’ll wait to see if we have a bounce as this looks to be a C wave down coming now. It could go to that 1940 area?

  25. I get the feeling they will chop around all day into the close and make a bear flag going into tomorrow. Possibly Yellen says something at the FOMC that the market doesn’t like and will therefore allow this C wave down to continue?

    Most FOMC days are positive, but maybe it’s time for a negative one? Of course they won’t blame it on Yellen but on the sanctions instead.

        • So far we’ve yet to get that smaller C wave up. Obummer is talking soon about sanctions on the Russians again. My best guess is that things will calm down afterhours and we’ll rally up tomorrow morning to that upper falling trendline on that triangle.

          It should have fallen to around 198.20 SPY by then. If we have a gap open and hit that level I’ll be shorting it in a 198/194 put spread expiring next Friday. Meaning I’ll buy the 198 and sell the 194.

          They don’t usually let the bears in short this easily. There should be another move up tomorrow morning. Of course I could be wrong and this time they just tank it? If so, I’ll just sit this move out as I’m not chasing it and getting another bad entry like I did on the long previously.

  26. Tough to get a read on the market right now. Wave count isn’t obvious anymore. I still think we are either already in a larger C wave down or will start one tomorrow after Yellen speaks. Meaning that there’s still a chance they could go up tomorrow higher then today and complete the larger B wave up.

    That would set up a lower high then the current high last week but higher then today. Somewhere between 1984 and 1991 SPX would be the target. That’s only if they do the usually and close the FOMC day green like they have done so many times in the past.

    That’s a pretty nice rally into the close tomorrow and while it seems unlikely to happen I could see it as “possible” in the charts. Honestly though it really looks done to me and we should continue down more tomorrow. But you know how they like to manipulate the charts and trick the bears, so I’m just throwing that out there as a “possible” but unlikely scenario.

    What should happen is that we open in the morning (probably down) and rally to that falling trendline on the SPY around 198.20 right now. That would be around 1982 SPX area I guess. A lower high then today’s high, which would setup a big move down on Thursday.

    I don’t trust SkyNet on second. This looks too easy right now and they never let us bears in. I suspect we’ll open down tomorrow to lure in the last bear. Then rip all day into the FOMC meeting to hit that falling trendline. If that happens I’d look to get short. If not then I just missed this move down.

  27. A certain little indicator continues to head south. One by one, prominent stocks are being taken out to the woodshed. Today UPS was bludgeoned, plunging beneath its lower, downtrending BB. Fellow Transport stalwart, FDX is in a similar position hugging its lower downtrending BB. ROLL, a maker of ball bearings, had a sizeable down day on no news.

    I was going to do a movie review but maybe let’s wait to see what news the Fed delivers tomorrow. Very disappointed in the recent LeCarre flick both in its aesthetics and occultic implications. Very little in terms of denouement but if it was true to its source material, denouement was very boring and underwhelming in the original novel. My initial instincts to avoid LeCarre’s post Cold War material was spot on and only Obozo-ites could think that the plot line was earth-shattering and that the ending was even remotely interesting or original. Probably the reason why critics have been given it a high rating. It gets a 7.7 over at IMBD, a number which never wavers so maybe there is some occultic implications there.

    Our Kind of Traitor is probably LeCarre’s best post Cold War work but even that took awhile to get going while he focused on the boring modern day do-gooder protagonists who really weren’t that interesting.

  28. Nothing to do here but wait until 2pm to hear Yellen yell… LOL The best I could see is a move up to around where we opened today, which assumes the opening gap up was some kind of smaller A wave and the move down currently is the smaller B wave. So a smaller C wave up (should be weak) into the meeting is possible.

    That whole ABC move would then make some kind of wave 2 up with the entire move down from the July 29th high making up some kind of wave 1 down (which had 5 smaller waves inside it). These 2 waves are inside a larger C wave down I believe and this C wave should have 5 waves inside it.

    So far I think we’ve see the wave 1 down and we’re now seeing the wave 2 up. If all goes well, we should see the wave 3 down after Yellen and/or all day Thursday. It’s tricky right now though as I don’t want to take a short until this meeting is over with. Actually I might take it just in front of the meeting…. but we need a bigger bounce I think. Might not get one from the looks of things now.

    • With that said…

      When the market looks so bearish you almost don’t want to short it because you know a squeeze is just about ready to happen. It feels like they are letting the bears pile on short here and will trick us all and rally right after Yellen speaks today. Going down into the meeting knowing that FOMC days are in many cases (not always of course) “turn dates” you almost have to think they will do the opposite of what we all expect and rally back up to new highs?

  29. No question now gang…. I missed the short. The C wave down should be over with by 2pm today I now believe as I suspect we’ll rally after Yellen. Hopefully some of you were already short. I’ll be looking to go long right before the meeting as I think that’s where we’ll bottom at.

    • the bozo rally spiked up quick but lost some traction almost just as quick. Curious to see the rest of this afternoon play out

      • The first reaction from the FOMC is usually a fakeout move. I think we’ll close green today and probably just under 1980 SPX by a few points. Then I think the jobless claims numbers will be bad enough to get us one more move down to that major support area of 1950-1955 SPX, at which point I’d go long into next week for a nice bounce.

        But I’m not even thinking about going long today as this looks like the classic bull trap right now with the bear trap coming tomorrow morning with the expected gap down and fall to that zone. Then a reversal should happen and stick this time with a carry over into early next week before peaking out again.

  30. Should be a wave 1 up most of the day and a wave 2 down later in the day. I’ll look to get more if the wave 2 down get near a double bottom from the low today. I did take a long (half) position. I got the 196 calls that expire next Friday and sold the 199 calls for $1.01 on that spread. I’ll buy more later today if the low isn’t in and we dip lower. But I’m really just expecting a “almost” double bottom on that wave 2 down later today.

    • I’m out of all longs… no bounce coming it seems. I’m going to take a short position. Yes, it’s crazy as we are WAY oversold. But this looks really bad right now and I don’t think and bounce is coming for awhile now.

      • I’m back to cash… 2-3 bad trades now. Market is now going to bounce since I’m out of it. Figures. I guess after 7 winners in a row I’d have to have a couple of losing trades.

  31. Trin was only a measly .92 on such a big down day.

    Tomorrow, we have two big squares; a Venus-Uranus square and a Mars-Jupiter square.

    Friday will be 4707 (117) days from a certain little event 12 years 10months 21 days ago. Back then Mars was in the third degree of a new house as well with Jupiter just a few ticks away from pulling off an opposition to Mars.

    Last Friday looks like it was an occultic pentecost as it has kicked off this nasty little downwave. 4700 days from you know when….2 years 50 days from the grand reunion/ demise of Ray Bradbury or 780 days later..780===13×60 or 13x(20+20+20) 20 and 13 being the prime numbers in the Mayan mathematical system/ calendar.

    Bloodbath in many stocks today with many plunging severely beneath lower BBs.

    Australian dollar also nosedived below its lower BB.

    • It looks like we’ve heard from the losing side of the World Cup final today (winner in 1986)
      What does the winning side have in store?

      This week is also 1397 weeks from the lesser grand ritual….last Friday was 9776 days later.

    • I think we’ve already had the 5th wave down yesterday. Looks like we are bottoming here today. If so we should rally today (Wednesday) and continue probably until Friday of this week.

      Now while it’s common to put in the low for the week on the Thursday or Friday prior to options expiration week (which is next Friday August 15th) and then have a bullish opx I get the feeling this time will be different. In fact I think we’ll “flip flop” and put the high in on the Thursday or Friday prior to opx week.

      This suggests to me that next week will be a down week and not an up week. The trend appears to have changed from bullish to bearish. It’s not confirmed yet some (most) people out there see 2000 to 2100 yet to come. Then they see a Primary Wave 4 down followed by at Primary Wave 5 up into 2017.

      But I have reason to (now) believe otherwise. While trying not to take a side and be a bear or a bull and just look at the facts and evidence to let the market tell us where it’s going I have enough evidence now to stay we’ve topped out for the year and most likely for the next 10-20 years (or more?).

      I wrote it all up in a new post a few days ago but haven’t put up that post yet. I want to see evidence that we don’t put in a new high on this rally into the end of this week first. And quite frankly I don’t know if there is anyone out there reading anymore? Anna’s “HotOptionBabe” site seems abandoned too.

      I talk to her on the phone several times and week and she’s just tired of it all she told me. Busy with other stuff and has just lost the desire to make new posts on the site. I understand as I myself have went from one post per day to one or two a month now.

      It seems like it was all planned that all the “bear blogs” would die out and disappear when the stock market finally topped out and starts it’s crash move down. And here we are topped out and about to see the greatest crash happen in our lifetimes over the next 6 months. Such is the irony for all the big bears to be sleeping.

      In my new post I point out a lot of reasons as to “why” we are going to crash this year and hit 666 SPX by December of 2014. It’s going to be a wild ride as it’s just getting started right now. We are going to witness another 1929, only worst this time.

      Back to the short term…

      If we rally up some today and close positive then “possibly” we have bottomed and will rally up into this Friday. Then if we the downward sloping trendline around 1960 currently I think that’s a “no brainer” short into next week. This should be that 20% of the time where opx week is bearish.

      This move up should be a larger wave 2 up (with an ABC pattern inside it) as I think we’ve had a larger wave 1 down complete today. It has a nice 5 wave pattern inside it and the smaller wave 3 also has 5 even smaller waves inside it as well.

      This sets up next week to start the larger wave 3 down, and it should be a very big drop I think. Get ready as this bear is just starting…

  32. That German stock market is looking to be in a very precarious position. Basically all of the European indices are down at their lower daily and weekly BBs while the US indices are more mild mannered. In fact, the SP is almost following the first leg pattern down of the lesser grand ritual right down to a basically unchanged close today right at the lower BB. That close on 9-12 produced a pop for a few days but who is leading the way? The US or Europe. Deutsche Bank has been hammered over the past month and made more new 52 week lows today. EUFN in a smilar position but did put in a hollow bar today.

    There is an ECB meeting tomorrow that nobody is talking about. Do they announce QE to the nth degree that gets Germany bent out of shape. We survived the 9th of AV and a little 69 year anniversary today. A little scary when there is a Mars-Jupiter square occurring. In conjunction with the heliacal rising of Sirius. And as we approach Tebow’s 27th birthday.

    • A certain little indicator is racing through no mans land although its component did have an uptick today.

      • EWK (Belgium) precariously hanging by a thread to its lower downtrending BB. In tribute to the summer of fun, IF THIS IS TUESDAY, IT MUST BE BELGIUM, I shall focus on the Belgium ETF since an esteemed contributor over at DEs has brought it to my attention. Tomorrow, is 37 days since Belgium eliminated the US tourists from the World Cup. Haven’t seen Hercules yet featuring Belgium star Ian McShane but did see A Most Wanted Man which was a total snorefest. Seriously, that movie was putting me to sleep. Very poor pacing and editing by the “anointed ” artist who brought you Depeche Mode’s 1987 videos. Some cliched storytelling and acting as well although the actors overall were very good and the cinematography was good. It had the feel of an adult film but was poorly constructed. Plus as I have already mentioned it had the plotline, that only an Obozo-ite could feel was enthralling.

        I’ve got a new Depeche Mode video from this artist that is more apropos for the times we live in. When things slow down, I might post a link.

  33. I think we might get up to only around 1940 SPX now as the market looks
    too weak to make it up to 1960 area as I previously thought. This chart
    shows about what I’m thinking will happen now:
    http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=0&dy=29&id=p48344622727&a=335493930&r=870

    It could happen by the close Friday, which that tells me that the usual “Bullish Option Expiration” isn’t likely to happen this time around. We should go down next week from the look and feel of the market right now.

  34. Hmmm… at this point all I can see is way too many bears onboard this train. Since today is Thursday and they seem to put in a low on the Thursday or Friday prior to option expiration week (which is next Friday) I’m thinking we will rally tomorrow, Monday and possibly early Tuesday before we top out again.

    Also considering the amount of bearishness I suspect is out there now it’s likely this rally will go higher then expected. While that 1940 area is resistance I think there are many bears’ stops sitting above it. I’m guessing that we’ll see that original target of 1960… possibly 1970 by Tuesday of next week.

    I don’t know the coming high but it should take out the stops above 1940 area I’d think. Everything just looks so bearish now… and you know they won’t let the bears on this wave 3 down. I won’t go long as that’s against the trend and risky but I’ll wait until next week before I look to go short.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=!GT20SPX&p=D&b=3&g=1&id=p18930922334&a=349546011

  35. There was either a flash crash in ROLL today or there is a fake print over at stock charts right now. They released earnings this morning it looks like so the prints might have been made pre-market but unlikely. Yahoo fin doesn’t have the stock trading below 54 today.

    ROLL of course is a highly occultic term. ROLL TIDE BAMA!!!! This is how things ROLL!!!

  36. It’s still unclear on the coming bounce high but I’m just not seeing 1960-1970 at this point. When the bull market was roaring it was common to see a wave 1 down followed by a wave 2 up that retraced either 61.8% of the move or even 78.6%… but I strongly believe the bull market run is over with now.

    That implies that the wave 2 bounces won’t be a high and should be either 23.6%, 38.2% or possibly 50%, as they are now met with overhead downward pressure. If we only do a 23.6% move up then that level is around 1925 SPX. If it’s a 38.2% move then 1937-1938 is likely. And a 50% move up would be around 1958 SPX.

    I don’t think we’ll get any higher then 50% so there no point mentioning the levels above there. If I had to place odds I’d give 38.2% the highest odds (50% chance), then next would be the 50% level (30% chance) and finally the 28.6% level (20% chance).

    On the 60 minute chart there is a gap that could be filled from Monday the 4th at 1938.99 with Tuesday opening at 1935.17 SPX. If we do the 38.2% move up that gap should be filled. Odds are good that we’ll close green today and then rally on Monday of next week with a peak on Tuesday morning… where I’d look to get short if this plays out as expected?

  37. Tomorrow might be the dawning of the age of Aquarius that they have been talking about for so long, at least since the summer of ’69 and before. Full moon in Aquarius forming a T-square with the Sun and Saturn and not too far off from forming a T square to Mars-Jupiter. Jupiter will supposedly be combust free today as well moving far enough away from the sun’s glare to be seen in the heavens and thus “ascending”?

    It looks like we’re surviving another 69 year anniversary today so far, an event that they put in the Wolverine movie from last year. (There was another pre-ritual 45 years ago). So, so far so good on the 69 year anniversaries of 8(6,9) and the other one from the summer of ’69.

    • Don’t have time to do links for some Depeche Mode videos but for the intrepid few, it might be wise to take a look at the Strangelove and Halo videos. The ’88 US version of STRangeLOVE. Halo then might clear up some of the meanings of STRlove particularly the orbital lines around the rotating globe. Which I supposed are HALOs?????

      • And it is being reported that Kevin LOVE #42 will be traded to the LeBron Cavaliers. The King will be taking his old #23 in his return to his hometown. The Miami Thrice have been dissolved with the King’s abdication.

  38. This move up is quite strong and could go all the wave to the downward sloping trendline in a chart I posted last week (around 1960 SPX) http://screencast.com/t/KmxoyTZLg

    In that chart I was looking for an ABC move up (in Blue) for a wave 2 up (in orange). We are still in the first Blue arrow up and haven’t even started the short (2nd) Blue arrow down yet (the B wave inside the larger 2 wave up).

    Therefore we could go all the way up to that 1960 area just for the A wave. It should still happen on Tuesday morning as I previously guessed it would… but the move down for the B wave will likely trick a lot of bears into thinking it’s the big wave 3 down (in orange) that they’ve been waiting for.

    Of course they will be squeezed hard with will make the C wave up start. This C wave should be 1.618% of the A wave and that could be a problem if this A wave hits 1960 on Tuesday and ends up being around 55 points in length. Why? Because 55 points times 1.618% equals 89 points projected for the C wave up.

    If this B wave down only hits say 50% of the A wave up then it should bottom around 1930-1935 SPX and when you add 89 points on top of that you get a new high above 1991. This implies the wave 3 down isn’t happening and that all we had from the 1991 high to the 1905 low was a larger wave 4 down with wave 5 up yet to come.

    This also suggests that the move up from 1905 will be a 5 wave pattern and not a 3 wave pattern. So it won’t be an ABC but will be instead a 1-5 move, and if so we are only in the first wave 1 up not and A up.

    Therefore we’ll see a wave 2 down Tuesday from the 1960 area followed by a wave 3 up to new highs. Then a wave 4 down to probably retest 1991 (would then be support) and a wave 5 up to another higher high.

    Once again the bear move is short lived…

  39. Looking at the charts this morning I could see the SPX going down to the 1927 area before reversing later in the day and going back up. I still see that falling trendline being hit around 1960 before we rollover for a bigger wave down to trade.

    I would take a small long if we did get down to the 1927 area but otherwise I’ll stay in cash and wait for the 1960 area to short at. It’s still unknown about the move down for the 1960 area as to what wave count it will be? It still could be take larger wave 3 down I was taking about? However I don’t see a wave 4 and 5 after that so even if it happens it will be relabeled as a C wave.

    Regardless of the label it should still take out the current low of 1905 SPX. If however the move down just makes a higher low then the next wave up should be a powerful one that will most likely take us to a new high.

    But either way the count ends up the wave down from that 1960 area hit of the downward sloping trendline looks to be a great short. Even the shorter wave down scenario should take us to 1925-1930 area, with the other scenario us to 1860-1880 area.

    • A decline is certainly looking likely in the days ahead – it will be interesting if we reach the 1955-60 level, fall short or overshoot!

  40. High odds that Thursday morning we’ll see that downward sloping trendline hit and end the rally up. Since it’s falling it’s no longer in the 1960 SPX area but today is just a hair under 1955. Tomorrow it could be 1952-1953 from the rate it’s declining.

    That’s the best shorting opportunity I see for a move down to 1880 area withing 1-2 weeks. So I’ll be looking tomorrow to see how high they take it to. There is also the 1965.14 gap window area from 7/31 but I really doubt if it gets up there. In fact I think a lot of bears are waiting there and at gap fill (1970.07), so it’s not likely to get there.

    I don’t know if we’ll gap up to that are tomorrow or open flat and climb up there but I’m still looking to short in the 1952-1953 zone as the other levels don’t look promising at this point. Thursday’s are common topping or bottoming days with Friday’s retracing some of what happened on Thursday.

    With that in mind (and the fact that Friday is OPX, which is heavily manipulated to make the options expire worthless so the market makers pay out the least amount of money) I suspect we’ll rally back some of Thursday’s move down to close the week out looking pretty confusing to most traders.

    I would see it as a wave 1 down on Thursday (from the gap up high) with a wave 2 up on Friday. That leaves wave 3 down on Monday and it should be inside a larger wave C down with A down being from 1991 to 1905 and B up from 1905 to 1955?

    If wave C down equals wave A down then we should drop 86 points from the high on Thursday. If that’s around 1955 then we should go down to 1869 area before ending the whole ABC move down. Then I think we’ll rally again and probably continue up through all the rest of August and into September.

    However, if wave C down is 1.618% of wave A down then we should drop 140 points from Thursdays high forecast. I don’t see that happening but anything is possible I guess. We’ll just have to cross that bridge when we get there.

  41. Happy 27th birthday Tim Tebow!!!! It looks like they’re launching the SEC network today on his birthday with Tebow being its new star analyst!!! SEC (19-5-3 or 19-5-111???) being the presumed dominant conference in college football the last several years headlined by BAMA, ROLL TIDE (The TIDE has RISEN was the big byline from the four letter announcer following their last national championship in early 2013 in MIAMI). Tebow was a GATOR.

    Anyway, tomorrow will be 2years7months7 days from #15’s big 316 moment for Denver against the Steelers in the wild card round of the NFL playoffs capped off by the game winning 80 yard pass to #88 to start off overtime. 5years7months 7days from his 316 moment in the Nat’l Championship game for the Gators. 2years7months21 days from his infamous occultic pied piper moment leading his occultic entourage following his running TD against the Patriots to start the game.

    #15 leading
    19 87

    23 88

    It’s really hard to dig up that tape these days.

    I have quite a few hits for tomorrow but I wonder whether it will be more geopolitical than stock market related, if anything.

    • They put Howard the Duck in the new Guardians of the Galaxy movie. Howard the Duck apparently being the first Marvel Comic character to make it to the big screen back in 1986. Another minor ritual harkening back to the times of the lesser grand ritual or to 86???? ie 8-15 or 14??? HOWARD curiously does have the 8-15 number ie 8-15-23(5)-1-18(9)-4. It will be 1month11 days from 7-4 tomorrow or 238 years 1month11days from a certain little founding. 111 days from the 4-26 Bradley date.

  42. Crude oil did break down sharply down today so it could be the indication of something. This right at OPEX which is very unusual. Crude is now below the daily and weekly lower BBs.

    Tebow’s JOHN 3:16…..JOHN===10-15-8-5 or 2-5-8-5???? I saw JOHN somewhere else today and can’t remember the situation/ context. JON in David Bowie’s I AM AFRAID OF AMERICANS video.

    We Are GROOT the big line from Guardians of the Galaxy. GG (77) like the Great Gatsby with its GG opening scene.

  43. Gap filled from 7/31 on the SPY and SPX. Now is decision time. Do we rollover some today and carry it into Tuesday or breakthrough and run to new highs? We should know after 11:30 am I’d think Europe closes then and the buying will just be the US market.

  44. I’m still looking for a pullback of 10-15 points but the higher it goes the more likely the pullback will be deeper… maybe 20-25 points? At this point it appears they want the double top before pulling back. Which seems odd to me as most of the time they don’t give people the chance to stay long all the way up to any double top and then go short.

    As we all know they trick both the bulls and bears and either pierce through any double top (or bottom) and then reverse the other way. Or they fall short of any double top (or bottom) and reverse without letting people exit. It’s always a trick, but what is the trick they have planned now?

    I’m not sure but I’m neither long or short right now. I don’t trust either one so I’ll just wait for a nice pullback to go long or a pierce of the double top to go short. If they do pierce the 1991 area we should either fall short of 2000 (maybe 1997?) or go through it to possibly 2005-2010.

  45. This chart by Daneric is pretty accurate I believe. I’m looking for about 10 points down today from red [3] to red [4] and then up later this week and into Monday to hit red [5] and complete black iii. Then about 20 points down for black iv, which I think will have started from 1994-1997 SPX… so that suggests a move back down to around 1974-1977 early next week.

    Then we should have the final black v up to 2015-2020 into September 10th-15th I think. That should complete the rally from 2011 and allow the start of the 200-400 point drop expected into November. It suggests the first wave down be most of mid-late September with the wave 2 bounce up into the October Legatus meeting.

    Since that’s October 8th-17th I’d guess will top out for that wave 2 bounce somewhere in that period or even Monday the 20th the next trading day after the meeting ends on Friday the 17th. At that point I think we’ll start the 3-4 week crash wave down.

    http://2.bp.blogspot.com/–3DTU2Jqo4I/U_OxAIkEDmI/AAAAAAAAY0s/boq7PXyTOhg/s1600/spx60.png

  46. Not that the Fed is saying anything new today as it’s just the minutes from the last meeting but the market is still waiting to see if Janet Yellen will add anything else I guess. So when she speaks here around 2pm I’d think we’ll have a sharp move one way or the other. I wish I knew which way but I don’t?

    We are very, very overbought now so I’d look to short a quick move higher over the 1991 high for a pullback later today and into tomorrow possibly. If she doesn’t say anything stupid (like we are thinking about raising rates soon) and the market just drops 10 points or so I’d be interested in going long.

    But of course if it was something really bad then we should see the market top and a new down trend start. Most everyone is still looking for a 5th wave up to new all time highs and with the market being rigged in the bulls favor I’d say they could still get it.

    Just seems odd that we haven’t hit new all time highs yet on the ES futures or the SPX. And 17,000 is within spitting distance now on the DOW, so it seems like it’s all guaranteed to happen right? That’s what worries me… everyone on the same bull bus. I remain in cash.

  47. Friday, 8-22 was Ray Bradbury’s birthday. He would have been 94. 808 days from his demise/ the grand reunion. Interesting that Obozo and Old YellER have August birthdays as well all in the 84 format.

    Denouement might take place in the form of the South Sea Bubble popping because they treat the lesser grand ritual as an afterthought. I am seeing grand ritual specific codes in movies pre-dating the lesser grand ritual event and I don’t see how these codes pertain to the event 26 years ago. Just came across references in early 70s movies like High Plains Drifter and the Last Valley…numbers like 12 212 125 being referenced which don’t conform to 87.

    Did some astro research to the South Sea Bubble event of 1720 (294 years ago) and noticed the grand conjunction of the Sun, Mercury, Venus, Mars,Pluto in Virgo in early September of that year. Concurrently, Jupiter and Uranus were forming a conjunction in Leo. This following a new moon. Mercury joined the conjunction a little later as it retrograded back to the other planets.

    • Prechter does love the South Sea Bubble so there might be meaning/ GRAVitas to the South Sea Bubble theme.

      Reviewing some Shining analysis again and coming through with some breakthroughs.

      • The Kevin LOVE #42 trade to the LeBron CAVs officially just went through and the Clippers officially sold earlier in the week for $2billion paid with MSFT funny money so the Clippers/ Donald Sterling ritual is officially over.

  48. Some minor notes: The local hipster alternative NPR station has been playing alot of 80s music lately.

    Sam Bradford#8, QB for the STL Rams who missed 9 games last season after tearing his ACL, was knocked out of today’s preseason game with a knee injury. Bradford, w/ the 11-8, 1987 birthday being a sleeper ritualee explaining why the Rams are so adamant about keeping him around despite his perpetually disappointing play….at least until the grand ritual unfolds. Meanwhile the other SAM on his team,Michael Sam, did get a sack against his fellow ritualee Johnny Manziel. Manziel #2, the operators new favorite NFL plaything, did go 10-15 for 85 yards in his performance tonight in STL. Michael Sam is noted for being the first openly gay player in the NFL and for kissing his male companion on draft night after being drafted by the Rams in the 7th round.

    In nearby FerguSON, the events commemorated in Bradley’s ode to the ’29’92 ritual are repeating themselves 22years4months later thus indicating that the end times are upon us….or denouement. Notice the appropriate SON in the city’s name harkening back to ONS Jr. Market…..ie a 211 in progress at 983 Temple Ave……..This time it’s QwikTrip Market…..

    I did notice that the sheriff’s name is SAM in High Plain’s Drifter.

  49. I could see 5-10 more points up tomorrow and then I’d expect a 20-30 point pullback before resuming the rally back up. At this point it’s looking like we are on our way much high. So for now it’s just a “buy the dip” market and should continue through early September.

  50. Based on how quickly the market topped this morning and pulled back sharply I’d say we’ll pop just a little higher Tuesday morning and then down we go. I’m still looking for 20-30 points on the move down and then a rally the rest of the week as we are going into a 3-day holiday weekend.

    Next week we “could” see the top (2010-2020), or it could be the 2nd week of September. However, we should top out in this coming month and start the move down into early October for the first wave so we can bounce up into the end of the Legatus meeting (Oct.8th-17th) for the wave 2 up.

    That then sets up the market for the “crash” wave 3 down to start in late October and into most of November. Naturally I could be totally wrong on this call as many good traders are calling for 2200+ on the SPX by the end of the year. Maybe they are right and I’m wrong (or my source is wrong?). I don’t know?

    For now I’ll just trade it from day to day and look for a short tomorrow “if” we pop higher slightly at the open on Tuesday. If we drop instead and put in that 20-30 points down move at some point tomorrow I’ll look to go long into the rest of this week and into next week. Either way is fine with me as while I’m bearish on the economy I’ll go long the market just like I’ll go short it.

    • hey Red. Upper bol’ on the weekly must surely be hit in the current multi-week up wave..currently @ 2020s.

      Given another 2-3 weeks, should have fair chance of 2030/50 zone.

      Carboni.. and a fair number of others now calling for ‘new bull market’, with sp’2100s by year end.

      Are they all about to get caught out, whilst the surviving doomer bears capture some autumnal carnage?

  51. The Rams Browns game was played in Cleveland not the STL but my numey post reads better as if it had been played there so just assume that it was. It turns out that hit knocked out Sam Bradford #8, the fragile STL QB, with the 11-8-1987 birthday, for the season. It wasn’t much of a hit but he is done for the season. An analysis of the hits shows that Browns DE #95 hit Bradford #8 with Rams #77 in the picture to the left with apparently #77 being beaten by #95. Very similar to the MNF hit that knocked out Dallas’ #9 back on 10-25-2010, in the game that saw both teams #88s score 5 times…ie5x88. The Giants’ #95 produced the hit in that game.

    Trolls on the internet are calling for the Rams to trade for Washington’s #12 COUSINS, the Skins’ backup who is creating a QB controversy in the nation’s capital as he tries to unseat RGIII..973.#10—a little 10-12 controversy.

  52. Somewhere between 2005-2010 this week is about the area I expect all bears to cave in and go long. At that point I’d look to short it for a 20-30 point pullback. It could fool all of us that are expecting a light volume melt up because of the holiday (Labor Day) weekend. Meaning it could happen today, Wednesday or Thursday… then down into Friday.

    Then up next week into September 4th where a big decision will be made that will determine the fate of the market. My guess is that we’ll tank after the 4th as the market won’t be happy with that decision (which I’m sure has already been made as all stock market crashes and rallies are planned well in advance).

  53. On the upside I’m looking for around 11,330 on the NYA (per a FP emailed to me) for a final top with September 4th being the ideal date. This “should” be the top of all the indexes and we should then start down and continue the rest of the year.

      • Thanks Casey. Looks like it’s at 7:45 am EST on the 4th if I read it correctly. If we dip some this Thursday or Friday and then rally up to 2010 area by Wednesday at the close September 3rd I’ll be going in very heavily short as it tells me they will likely raise rates in the EU and the markets should tank everywhere.

        If nothing much happens then I’ll exit the short Thursday the 4th after his speech and look for a different trade (based on the charts of whether I should be going long or short of course).

        But I’ll have to short on Wednesday since they have the meeting at 7:45 am Thursday before the market opens. This one event could very well crash the markets world wide. Traders will then be expecting America to raise rates too what one country does others tend to follow.

  54. If, and that’s a big “IF” we see a small gap down tomorrow from some bad economic numbers I’d be a buyer in the early morning. Why? Because all this choppy sideway action is just setting the market up to rally more after they reset the overbought short term charts.

    Right now the 60 minute chart is near the bottom on the stochastics and should a morning gap down happen it will quickly be oversold. With that said I don’t see a huge rally up from here on Friday as we are still very overbought on the daily chart.

    But the light holiday volume will likely overcome the overboughtness and we’ll see a move to 2010 area next week sometime. If we clear that area then 2025 should be next. However, if 2010 comes on Wednesday just before the ECB speaks (Thursday morning at 7:45 am EST) I’d short it into that announcement to see what happens.

    Anything bad from Draghi and the market should tank hard. Will he disappoint? I don’t know for sure of course as I don’t have a crystal ball but considering how overbought we’ll be at that point… and should have cleared out all the bear stops running up to 2006.50 ES, I’ll take that chance that we’ll fall regardless of what is said.

  55. SP 2006.12-666.79===1339.33 That looks like a pretty good number. Plus plenty of 6s in 2006.12

    Now it seem’s obvious how the path for denouement will take place. Traditional meltdown. Now that 26 no longer makes sense, it’s time to wait for 27. A date I’ve known about for 4 plus years but never knew the year but the numerology makes sense now as well as the basis for the ritual.

    • The NAPLLE 100 is still shooting to new highs with an extreme RSI rating but I expect it to put in new highs later with a divergent RSI reading then.

  56. The top of this market is just days away I believe. Could be this week or next week but I doubt it will extend past next week. I don’t know the high of course but it could be as high as 2050-2055 SPX, or fall short of it? Don’t know for sure but “if” we get up to that area I’d short it with both fists.

    However the timing of that move up must happen before the end of next week to stay in line closely with the 1929 chart. In fact today is the exact day the market topped in 1929, so happy 85 years to the start of the Great Depression One.

    Once the top is in I think we’ll have a similar move down like in 1929 where the first wave was a 16% correction, then a 1 week rally for the 2 wave up and then the crash wave down. While I’m not expecting it to be exactly like 1929 was I do think it will look close when it’s all over with.

  57. I have an HO observation being triggered today. Or its very close to one. 65 new 52 wk lows on the New York Stock Composite per stock charts. Of course, officially WSJ data should be used.

    • The 1929 champion Packers lost to the 2014 champion PEDHawks 36-16 in tonight’s opening night NFL game. I was hoping they finished the game at 29-16. It was 29-10 at one point as well. Didn’t watch much of the game though so didn’t get a good numerological read. #24 for the PEDhawks had 2 TDs while QB #3 had 2 TDs.

  58. The “all time” high is very likely in now at 2011.17 SPX and we’ll not see the 2000’s again for the next 10 years or more. Monday of next week we should see a bounce back to over 2000 but lower then the high. Then I expect a move down into Thursday/Friday in the 1950’s for the low of that move. Then back up option’s expiration week for another lower high.

      • Good luck with that Amy. Everyone and their brother is long now and you know “they” never give you want you want or expect. Monday could open a little higher then the close today but not much. It should still be under the current high. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if Monday didn’t open down as I’m sure the bulls are fully onboard now.

        • Red, I am thinking 2038 – 2056 by next week. notice the numerology.
          Everyone expecting a 9/11 events. Everyone I know are shorting the market for the last 2 weeks or so since Soros shorted about a billion dollar worth. There are no bulls left, either short or in cash. Anyhow, I always respect your view and you haven been right most of the time. kudos!!!

          • Amy, it “could” extend up to around 2050-2055 per a FP I have on the NYA that shows 11,330… which is about equal to that 2050 area on the SPX. But “time wise” and past history tells me that we should have a low next week, not a high.

            As I re-quoted many times (from the PitBull on Mr. TopStep) the week prior to options expiration week is commonly the week were a low is put in. It’s usually on the Thursday or Friday, which is this coming week.

            The market makers do that to get shake out all the “call” holders that are long the monthly options for September (which always expire the 3 Friday of every month). Then they rally back up into that expiration Friday to shake out the new “put” holders.

            As for people short I disagree. I think shorts were squeezed out yesterday and that everyone is bullish. The Investor Sentiment is now only 13% Bears…. the lowest level since 1987.

            Then there is everyone I hear that is looking for 2050, 2070, 2100-2200 year end. There is a “cup and handle” pattern, which is of course Bullish, and every bear see’s it… therefore they aren’t short. I don’t think anyone is short now.

            Bears (and Bulls) see this as consolidation and are expecting much higher prices…. which of course shouldn’t happen because everyone is on the same page. I don’t see anyone bearish now. Even myself, as I have this FP on the NYA that implies around 2050 SPX area.

            But I’m doubting if it is real now, as I have too many FP’s that have never been hit. misdirection possibly? Don’t know? Then there the eerie pattern appearing of how close we are tracking the 1929 chart.

            Naturally it won’t be exact, but “similar” is still something one should pay attention to. If it continues to track it we’ll see a move down to around 1950-1955 to retest the lower rising trendline that’s been supporting the market since the 2011 low as seen on this weekly chart.

            http://stockcharts.com/public/1092905/chartbook/312846787

            If we hit it next week then it should hold and rally back up early the following week, which is options expiration week. Then on Thursday or Friday of that week we should see the last high for that week (still lower then the current 2011 high) and a breakdown into Friday that will cause the market to close below that rising trendline on the weekly chart.

            At that point I’m expecting a cliff dive into the first week of October with 1690-1700 being the target low. Everyone will be bearish then and we’ll here all the main stream media looking for a retest of the 2000 and 2007 highs at 1552 and 1576, but it shouldn’t happen.

            We should rally back up from that 1690-1700 low. What happens after that I’ll save for another post.

          • My thinking was the next FOMC meeting and how they have held and made sure the S&P is holding above 2000.

            Red & Casey – I just saw the 13% bear and can’t believe what I read.

            Anyhow, I guess we will see next week.

            As always Red, I love to read your posts.

          • Soros is in the minority currently (but he can afford to be patient I am sure) – from Mr Topstep a few days ago:

            Yesterday the PitBull told me to look at the latest Investors Intelligence,
            which showed only 13% bears, the lowest level since the ‘87 crash. We
            all know everyone got very bullish after the most recent sell off and new
            highs … but only 13% bears?That is a very scary statistic that even I, Mr. Permabull, was shocked to see.

      • Thanks, but I must give credit and say that I’ve got help on the calls. Should bottom short term this Thursday or Friday, bounce some early next week going into the FOMC meeting and then start the big nose dive by the 18th. The following 2-3 weeks are going to be ugly for the bulls.

    • Don’t know but we should bottom in 2016/2017 on the larger picture. Short term we should bottom this Thursday/Friday and then bounce some next Monday-Wednesday for the FOMC meeting. After that I’m expecting a cliff dive to start.

  59. I see a little more on the upside today… possibly a hit of 199.9128 SPY as it might be a FP from yesterday. While I’ll already short I’ll take another short should that be hit. I’m looking for Thursday and Friday to be down quite a bit, closing the week below 1970 minimum and probably below 1950 SPX.

  60. We “appear” to be in a larger wave 2 up now with the move from 2011 to 1982 being the larger wave 1 down. There were 5 waves inside that first wave down and I’m expect 3 waves inside this wave 2 up. So far I can see what appears to be a completed wave A up, a slightly down (almost sideways) B wave and the start of a weak C wave up. If it doesn’t rollover today it should end tomorrow morning… probably at the open.

    That could happen from some economic news or jobs report, etc… as the “why it went up” but after it ends early in the first part of the day the first wave 1 down inside the larger wave 3 down should start. This should take out today’s low and continue down the rest of the day and into Friday.

    Considering that the first larger wave 1 down was 29 points (2011-1982) I’d expect a multiple either 1.618% or 2.618% of that amount to make up wave 3 down. So if it’s 1.618% then it’s about 49 points down from whatever tomorrows high is at. If we assume they will touch 2000 again then 49 points down from that is 1951 to end the wave 3 down.

    I’d expect it to end early Friday and bounce some into the rest of the day to make the wave 4 up, which leaves the wave 5 down to happen Monday morning. After that I’d expect another ABC up into Wednesday for the FOMC meeting (possibly Thursday). It “should” be a nice move up to squeeze out the bears I’d think.

    These larger 5 waves from 2011 top to possibly 1930-1935 Monday morning will of course make up an even larger wave 1 down. If we keep it simple and just put the low at 1931 (guessing here, just makes it easier to calculate) we’d have 80 points in total from 2011 to 1931 to make up those 5 larger waves down, which make an even bigger wave 1 down.

    If we just do a 50% retracement of that (40 points up) we’d have a move back up to 1971 into the FOMC meeting (or possibly Thursday morning). Maybe we do 61.l8% retracement? i don’t the amount but the time period should put us either on Wednesday or Thursday the 17th/18th for this bigger wave 2 (meaning 3 larger waves up…ABC) up to end.

    Then we should start the bigger wave 3 down, which should again be a multiple of that estimated 80 points from 2011 to whatever Monday’s low is. It will either be 1.618% of that or possibly 2.618% of it. Either way I’m expect a nasty move down to start right around next Wednesday or Thursday that should last for 2-3 weeks and put us well below 1800, and probably just below 1700 by the time the 4th and 5th wave end. Estimated completion of entire move is the end of the first week of October.

    • That is really putting it out there my man. We get even half of that by Oct..and you will be a legend.

        • You’ll only be called fool by some if they somehow run this sucker up to SPX 2100(ish) by the end of the month.- I don’t see that happening..but ya never know the way this market acts these days, We’re going to need ALL the key indexes to take a big killing at once..and see that VIX spike up to 20 or 25 to get the SPX below 1900 and much lower down to 1800 by the first week of Oct i think.- We shall see soon I guess.

          • EW is of course easy to label after the fact before the fact is hard too read sometimes. Others probably see didn’t counts then I do but if my count is correct we have just finished the wave 2 up or will finish it at the open tomorrow should it gap up.

            The wave 3 down should start tomorrow and if it takes out the current low there’s not much support below that is really strong. There’s the 1970 area then the mid-1950’s but big support is of course at the 1905 double bottom.

            However there’s a rising trendline coming in around 1942 so that might hold. Regardless, once it gets steam going down past the 1985 area of support it should drop hard and fast all day Friday. The key is when this wave 2 up ends? I see a clear ABC and hitting 1998 makes the C wave equal to the A wave.

            But if the C wave is 1.618% then it could grind higher all day Friday and not drop until Monday. I don’t think that’s the case though as it just looks and feels too weak. And we are still under most moving averages and the Ichimoku cloud as seen in this chart:

            http://stockcharts.com/public/1092905/chartbook/335493930;

            They could use the retail sales data Friday to gap it up or tank it. Either way I think we’ll have an exciting day tomorrow.

          • Ok..thanks for the response and sounds good. I’d love to see the market get a good correction here. Looking forward to tmrw’s action. 🙂

    • Don’t know the label of it? But I’d suspect that Primary Wave 4 down would end at the October low. Then Primary Wave 5 up should start. However, it should fail after the first week, and then we crash.

  61. If yesterdays low of 1983 to yesterdays high of 1996 was wave A up then the move down to today’s low of 1985 was likely the B wave down. Then we are in the C wave up but it’s very weak. If it just equals the length of the A wave then it should go up 13 points from 1985, or 1998 to end the ABC move up that I think makes up a wave 2 up, which leaves wave 3 down to start into the close today or Friday.

  62. If I were SkyNet I’d gap it up Friday morning to take out the bears and then immediately reverse and go down all day to take out the low which would then panic the bulls. Of course if there’s not many bears still short then I’d just gap it down tomorrow the take out the bulls. Since I’m already short I’d be happy either way as “if” they gap it up I’ll get another short position. If not then I’m happy with the shorts I have.

  63. This whole choppy action of up down up down for the last 3 days is just a nice bear flag. The question is “When will it breakdown?” I still think we are going down as previously stated but they might hold the market up today and drop it into Monday.

    However I would expect today to close down with the recent 1983 low holding (if they plan to hold it?). But there’s still a possibility that they will chop around all day and then tank it into the close after most traders have left for the weekend. They are very sneaky as we all know but pattern wise this big bear flag should breakdown by Monday or the close today.

  64. I think the plans have changed now. It appears they are going to delay this drop one week. I’m now looking for next Friday to be the start of the big drop. We should bounce Monday and then slightly top on Tuesday. Then down into Wednesday morning, back up on Thursday to put in a double top from Tuesdays high… which could be around 1995 area.

    Thursday appears to be the best day to take a short for a really big drop. I was expecting it to happen today and Monday but “they” aren’t allowing it, But a big drop is still coming and I’ll be ready to short again on the 18th. Until then it’s just short one day trades for me… in and out.

  65. We should see a little bit more on the upside tomorrow (most likely in the first half of the day) and then rollover and go back down with a slightly higher high expected then the low today. Meaning if we get up to 1990-1993 SPX it’s a short down to just above 1978.

    It should be safe to hold your short position into Wednesday morning for that low to be hit. Then exit for the rally prior to and after the FOMC minutes at 2pm. Thursday should rally up a little more then Wednesday and should also be higher then Tuesday’s high. Estimated high is 1995-1998 area (but I wouldn’t rule out some quick move up to hit 2000 one last time).

    Another short can be taken in that high zone on Thursday and not sold until the end of the first week of October. By then I’m expecting a low below 1700 SPX before a one week rally to start.

  66. The low came this morning so today is not the best day to short I think. Thursday still looks to be the top as this strong move up was likely some kind of wave 3. There should be a wave 4 down and a final wave 5 up happen before we tank. I’m passing on shorting the wave 4 down as the risk/reward isn’t good enough for me. I’ll wait until Thursday now.

  67. This bleep is so predictable. They pop the market everyday Tuesday of a fed meeting.

    I have wanted to add that the Australian dollar has been crushed lately. Another sign of the end times. The euro as well but it was leading the Aussie. Today, the Aussie is popping bigtime but it was relentlessly dropping day after day below its lower BB since currency opex a few weeks ago.

    Forgot to add to my NFL opening game review that they were highlighting the PEDHawks special #12 during the broadcast. When #24 scored to take the score to 29-10, the endzone he scored on had 2 12s displayed in the background.

    Although I didn’t watch much of the game so didn’t notice but the 1929 champion GB Packers did promote #19 to their starting 3 WR sets so on many plays they should have 19 87 18 lined up but don’t know if they had 19 87 lined up on any plays. #87 did have a big day for them on Sunday with something like 209 yards receiving and a long touchdown. Might need to review the tape for any numerological formations. #18 scored 2 TDs as well against NY or 18-18 ie 99 ie 29.

  68. Tomorrow we should go up slightly a little higher to complete some smaller 5th wave up. Then we should drop to 199.30 SPY (probably going into the FOMC meeting). Then one more rally up above tomorrow’s high (but below 2011) should happen after the meeting and into early Thursday.

    This is the pattern that happened in 1929 and should happen again. We scared out the bears today and should scare out the bulls on the drop into the meeting. Then as the bears reload short again Janet Yellen should say nothing bearish and we then have the last move up again to lure in some bulls and shake out that last bear.

    Only when everyone is convinced the rally is back and we are going 2100+ will they fool them and pull the rug out. Bears won’t believe it as they will have been burnt too many times and bulls will just think it’s a dip. It shouldn’t be related to anything Yellen says but could (should) come out later after the down move has gotten going.

    Possibly over the weekend after Alibaba (and the 40 thieves) steal from the sheep at its’ IPO this Friday as we know they must get that off before we fall off a cliff. How ironic is it that the largest IPO in history is named what it is? It might as well be called the Trojan horse of Troy… LOL!

  69. Certainly went higher then I expected as I wasn’t looking for a double top… but SkyNet knows where all the stops are and did a good job of hitting them on both sides today. I held on to my short through all the wild swings and ended the day up.

    With the daily candle pattern now showing a very long topping tail I’ll be happy to get more shorts should it bounce again in the morning. Odds are tilted in favor of the bears now that we won’t make another higher high tomorrow (based on the bearish candle pattern close), but a second attempt is certainly possible.

    Should it not give me the chance to short from some bounce I’ll just be happy with the shorts I currently own. But based on the overbought charts we should be just about ready to start selling off, and it should be for more then one or two days.

    Considering the Alibaba IPO is Friday we could get some kind of wave 1 down and 2 up between now and the end of the week so they can get that out of the way before we start dropping. I “may” exit my short tomorrow, wait for the bounce into Friday and short again. Hard too say right now but I feel it’s a “short the bounce” type period and not a “buy the dip” one.

  70. New lows on the NYSE jumped today despite rallies to new highs in some indices. I had a HO observation yesterday or a near one and we should definitely have one today. New highs were barely above yesterday’s as well. The Alibaba IPO has kept the market propped up but it just priced so no more need to hold it up.

    Tomorrow is 141 years from a certain Black Friday event but I really don’t see anything like that happening although it could pull the market into a certain direction. 141 does seem to be numerologically appropriate for the times. Curiously, tomorrow is also 1404 weeks 4 days from a certain little market event.

    I forgot to mention in my recent NFL notes that Ray Rice #27 is a 1987 baby. Born on 1-22 ie 14 of that year making him 27 years old. A former NFL champion with the BMORE Ravens. His former teammate from that championship squad, another Ray, the MIAMI grad out of the Bradley town of Lakeland Fl., Ray Ray, the Psalms 91 lover, was doing some postgame analysis of the Monday night game for the 4 letter while displaying a triangle with his hands. Sounding very mind-controlled and programmed, he was rambling about how the Colts defense lost sight of the 2 Eagles’ backs and let them run all over them in particular #43. Then he blurted out to the effect that one needs to pay attention to #s43 and 25…43-25—43-25—43 and 25 and on and on and on,blah blah blah…. It was quite a fevered pitch of a performance…..43-25, a numerological combo I had noticed earlier in the game…7-7 or 68…..Noticed the BABA IPO is priced at $68.

    Anyway, I liked how his fellow commentators just gave him his space and let him ramble along. Didn’t see any of them flashing triangles with their hands.

  71. Alibaba should put in it’s high today as it unloads it’s paper to the sheep. It should look like Facebook did back in 2012 when it opened, put in it’s high and never got back above it until 15 months later.

    If Alibaba had options I’d short it today as it’s almost a guaranteed winner if you could. But they won’t allow you to do that as we all know. It’s a sucks play to buy it in my opinion. Once it’s done we should see the market top and start pulling back into Monday.

  72. I think the low is in now. We should rally back up some the rest of the day but not huge. The short term charts are still bearish. We should certainly close the day in the negative but probably up some from here. Then Tuesday we could (should) go down again in the morning to retest today’s low (should make a slightly higher low but not guaranteed of course).

    Then I could see a rally start the rest of the day as we all know how trick “Turnaround Tuesday” is. I’m out of all shorts now and will wait for another setup to go short or long… whatever the market gives me.

    Last week I was very bearish thinking the market topped at the prior high of 2011 but we made a new high so now I’m neither bearish or bullish on the bigger picture. I’m just playing it day to day until I get a better read on the charts. I will say that we could still go up to the FP on the NYA of 11330 before topping (as hard as that is to believe… LOL).

  73. We had our gap down to complete the 5th wave inside a larger wave 1 (this assumes the high is in right now and the FP on the NYA won’t be hit). So I’m looking for an ABC move complete the wave 2 up. It should be weak though, maybe only going to 2000 SPX area. Then another move down into the close is expected.

  74. I’m looking for a short now as it’s not looking good for a move up to 2000, nor 1995 again. The market is stuck in a triangle on the 5 minute chart and I don’t think it’s going to breakout of it, but instead I suspect we will breakdown before the close. On the next bounce up to hit the top of the trendline I’ll be looking to get short. I think we’ll breakdown by 1 or 2 pm today.

    • Nevermind shorting it now… we hit a double bottom and held. Now possibly we’ll see an ABC rally up to that 2000 area for the 38.2% FIB but it might not happen until Wednesday. But make no mistake… the market should make another lower low this week.

  75. Afterhours we tanked further which tells me we’ll open down Wednesday morning. But we very close to a decent bounce as we are short oversold. I’m not sure how high we rally but wherever we go it’s just another place to short at. I exited my shorts too early so I’m just waiting for the bounce now.

    If it happens Wednesday it should last all day I’d guess and “possibly” into Thursday morning. Not sure completely about that one though? I’d just look for resistance to be hit and a lower FIB level like the 38.2% range, not the 50% or 61.8% level. Those level would have been hit in a bull market but I do think things have changed here now so a smaller bounce is expected.

  76. I think the markets will bounce tomorrow. Nasdaq and a few others are at their lower BBs which are still horizontal. Russell 2000 and Dax are below lower downtrending BBs. The Dow still needs to drop some to get to its lower BB. Also there is support at the lows from early Sept/late August??? that should produce a bounce. So far things are following a certain little fractal.

    There was another HO observation on Friday which produces an actual OMEN as new lows rose again (and on Monday but higs are dropped). Today, despite massive negative breadth, lows actually diminished but that was primarily, I’m guessing, because gold rallied today. The new lows list was littered with gold stocks yesterday.

    A component of a certain little indicator is getting very oversold so the market needs a bounce or this indicator will achieve max oversold levels fairly rapidly.

    • We’re likely to bounce but not as far as you may think. I was previously looking for around 2000 SPX but now I’m only expecting 1980-1990 area before rolling over again. We are in the beginning stages of a crash I think.

  77. Looks like we are going to bounce for a day or two. I wouldn’t short this today as we need a positive close I think, which means it could (should) continue into tomorrow as well. So for now I think the selling is over for a few days but should return later this week and into early next week.

  78. I think we started the first wave 1 down today inside a larger wave 3 down. After the ABC wave 2 is finished we should start the wave 3 of 3 down. It should drop 40+ points in one day. I don’t know when the wave 2 up will end but considering that tomorrow is Friday and Monday is
    usually a light volume day it could last all the way into Tuesday morning?

    Or it could take only one day (today) and tank back down again on Friday? Don’t know for sure but I suspect we’ll go up for the A wave (inside wave 2 up of 3 down) the rest of today. Then down some tomorrow for the B wave (inside wave 2 up of 3 down)… leaving the C wave up to
    complete wave 2 for Monday. After that we should really tank hard in the 3 of 3 down.

  79. From the 1998 SPX bounce high yesterday a 1.618% move down of wave 1 for this wave 3 that we started today puts the low of this wave around 1933 before we bounce for wave 4 up. It could happen tomorrow? I just don’t know?

    Or, if this wave 3 down is a 2.618% move of the wave 1 down (2019.26-1978.80—40.46 points) then it’s a 105 point drop from that 1998 high. Either way we should be going down more before we bounce.

    How it plays out I’m not sure? It could chop around some tomorrow after the gap down and rally back up some to make some smaller wave 2 or wave 4 up inside the larger wave 3 down. Remember, that wave 3 down should have 5 smaller waves inside it. Sometimes the bounces are so small that you miss them.

    So we could have only had the smaller wave 1 down today and the choppy sideways action into the close was the smaller wave 2. If so then we are looking for a smaller wave 3 down tomorrow inside the larger wave 3 down. However, if that’s the wave pattern then it suggests we make a 2.618% Fib move of the larger wave 1 down not the 1.618% Fib points implied above.

    I do not know which one will play out as I really can’t count the waves right now as it looks like one big wave down with no real bounces. So the whole wave could be just the first smaller wave 1 down inside the larger wave 3 down. That suggests a smaller wave 2 up tomorrow to close the market green as it should rebound at least 23.6% of the move down from the 1998 high yesterday to the low today at the close or tomorrow morning.

    Regardless, I would not be buying and dips anytime soon as we’ve likely just started the first part of the coming crash of 2014!

  80. Crazy fight here to hold Dow 17,000. Again..for about the 20th time in 2 months. Thought we might have that Dow 17K battle finished,and we could finally get some serious downside action kick in high gear early this morning..but obviously not. Not yet.Very irritating.

    • Nothing to do but wait right now…. stuck in a triangle. I would short again “if” we gap up Tuesday morning to hit the falling trendline of resistance coming in around 1985 SPX area today. At that point I’d expect today’s low to be broken as it’s very unlikely that the market will rally up further through that trendline after the opening gap.

      Failure to gap up would put it in “no man’s land” where it’s not a high odd’s short or long. So I’d doing nothing and just wait for a better setup. However, we also putting in a bottoming formation (but I don’t think the bottom is in yet), so a long around this Thursday (or Friday morning) will likely be a good trade.

      They should squeeze the bears for another week from that long I’d think and possibly top out in mid-October (in the middle of the Oct 8th-17th Legatus meeting) and then start the bigger drop I believe. I suspect we’ll put in a double top before dropping. Possibly just a few points above or below the 2019 SPX high.

      I have a “possible” FP on the SPY of 202.45 from last Thursday. We never went that high so it’s likely a real FP. The timing of “when” it will be hit is of course unknown but I think it’s around mid-October. This could look very close to the 2011 market move in August.

      • Lookin a little better here again. Back down over a 100 Dow pts sitting right on Dow 17,000 again as I type. Oops there is 17,008 again. Hell of a battle here. 🙂

        • Trin @ 1.85 and VIX up @ 16.40 keeping the door to “down” elevator open still here with an hour to go but they really,really really don’t like the Dow below 17,000 here.- I play both SPY and SPX puts but I won’t get short with either again until the Dow starts closing below 17K. We’ll never get the SPX to 1950 or lower or SPY to 195 unless “that” starts happening.

          • We need to at the very least re-test that Aug 7th SPX low of about 1904/1905 soon or I doubt we get much done to the downside anytime soon. Obviously shorts just lost the edge again big time…as they just cut the market decline in half…and we are way above Dow 17,000 again.- Hell…closing green today is not off tee table now.

          • Looking good for the gap up tomorrow. “Could” go higher then I previously thought (1985 was my first thinking). Still though, I think it’s a high odds short for a move down. However, I might not make a lower low as I suggested earlier.

            Too soon to tell on that one. First let’s see if it gaps up, and how high? From the 1964 low to the 1980 high today is 16 points. If that was an A wave up and then choppy sideways down throughout midday was the B wave, with the C wave just starting from the 1970 low then we could see 25 points up in total to end that wave.

            That is around 1995 for the ABC wave up from today’s 1964 low. If that plays out then we should do the opposite of what I thought earlier and start a nasty move down later this week to break the current low. Not sure if that is going to play out that way or not but it’s possible.

            On the flip side a move up to just under the falling trendline of resistance (around 1984 into the close today) should indicate that we’ll rollover tomorrow as previously thought and make that lower low later Tuesday afternoon.

            Then we should rally some into the close I’d think and start a choppy rally up into the rest of the week with Friday being the best “up” day. This would be the more likely move I think as I just don’t see them being ready to close the week out below the rising trendline of support from 2011, which is around 1960 area.

          • I don’t see a strong signal here either way on “that” close about tmrw morning as more likely being a gap up..or gap down. Right now the MM’s like the SPX in this tight 40 pt range just under the ATH’s….and for placating the public keeping the market headlines from sounding negative….they are going to extraordinary measures to keep the Dow closing below 17,000 so far.- Certainly no strong bear signal here yet…but I’ll bet we don’t get back near the highs again either.- I don’t know..but if I had to bet my life on it..I think I’d bet they “try” and take her down again tomorrow. We shall see.

          • That was supposed to..extraordinary measures to keep the Dow from closing BELOW 17,000 of course. Just changed it.

          • ok..just read it. 🙂 Yea hard to say…but if there is a BIG trade coming soon..I’ll still say it’s to the downside.Hope we see that 1905 again soon for a re-test and then we should really find out “whats what” going into the Oct/Nov period. Hold or fold time. I’ll swing by tmrw and give my thoughts again.

  81. I get the feeling there won’t be any more good short entries this week. It looks (and feels) like the shorts are getting tired as the bulls keep buying every selloff. The moves down aren’t lasting as long either as this mornings move was quickly reversed within the first hour.

    I would only take a short trade if we gaped up to hit the falling trendline around 1984-1985 SPX Tuesday morning. It’s not likely the bulls will get through it if they have to gap up to hit it. That is the highest odds trade of working for a short.

    However, SkyNet doesn’t like to give out high odds trades to us bears (does for the bulls a lot though), which tells me they might just drop tomorrow morning again and let that falling trendline of resistance drift lower before they attempt another run up to it and through it. Since it’s around 1984-1985 today at the close, but was around 1990 at the open this projects it to fall to 1980 area by the close on Tuesday.

    So if they go down again tomorrow morning and either make a new low or slightly higher high that downside move should again be finished early in the morning allowing them to do the old “Turn-around-Tuesday” dance and rally into the rest of the day.

    By the close it could be back up to that falling trendline of resistance again, but since it’s coming in lower (again, I’m guessing it will be around 1980 then) it could “possibly” push through it or stop at it at the end of the day.

    If it stops at it then we should expect them to gap up over it on Wednesday and carry that strong move up into Thursday morning. SkyNet is being very tricky right now and it’s hard to figure out what’s coming next. But I’d look to short a gap up Tuesday if provided. And strangely, I’d look to go long a gap down with a retest (slightly higher or slightly lower low) as we are much closer to a multi-day rally starting then another multi-day selloff now.

    I’m on the fence on which one will happen but I do think we only have one more lower low (double bottom?) coming before we have a rally to squeeze out these bears. Then of course I’d expect another move back down as I do believe we will take out the 1905 low by the end of this month. But they won’t make it easy to spot and trade…. that’s for sure!

  82. I was expecting more on the upside but the rally died out at the double top area around 1985 SPX. The selloff to follow wasn’t something i was expecting… at least not as big. The longer this sideways chop continues the more bearish the market is. Failure today to hold the high isn’t good for the bulls.

    While there’s still some time later this week to rally it’s not looking a promising as it looked before today. One big problem is the IWM not rallying up with the SPX. The QQQ’s rallied up and was the strongest it appears but ever day that goes by without a breakout to the upside says the bears are winning and indicate we could break the 2011 rising trendline of support on the weekly chart this Friday if the bulls don’t kick it in gear soon.

  83. Someone told me that he did some backtest study that said Wednesday’s only put in the high or low for any given week 7% of the time. Since we are below Monday and Tuesday’s low odd’s are 93% that we’ll see a lower low Thursday or Friday.

    Looks like we are going to hit the 1935 before this week ends. Possibly a small bounce tomorrow and another flush out to hit that low? Getting pretty oversold short term and seeing positive divergences. And we need to recapture 1960 on the weekly close or we break the 2011 rising trendline… and that’s VERY Bearish!

  84. This rally (which should last into the close today) isn’t likely to hold. I expect another move down tomorrow take out the bulls that went long at the current low today. The bottom isn’t in yet and shouldn’t appear until late next week. We should pierce through the 1905 SPX cash and 1890 ES futures before we start a nice rally that should last for a week or so.

  85. I was looking for a low on Friday/ tomorrow but things haven’t quite played out as they should have. So more likely a low on Monday concurrent with a 1000 new lows on the NYSE. Things are getting quite extreme on a certain little indicator with its component needing to make a big splash first for a low to hold.

    • Geccko, they should recapture the 1955-1960 SPX level tomorrow (Friday) as they need to close the weekly chart out at or above the rising trendline from 2011 as shown here: http://stockcharts.com/public/1092905/chartbook/312846787

      I don’t think it will break this week, but next week is another story. Not sure on it but I suspect it will breakdown by next Friday’s close and be below that trendline. That’s the first sign that the bull rally has ended.

  86. I still don’t like what I’ve seen. Still need to see a final washout with RSI hitting around the 30 level while 20 EMA crosses below the 50. Today’s action has the 20 flattening so no cross is possible until a continued decline. So now looking for a low Tuesday at the earliest. Still following a certain little analog but lagging a bit.

    The SP closed closer to its high. According to the analog, it should have finished at the midpoint of its daily range. The NYA and Nasdaq looked more in line with the analog.

    Next week might need to see the indices finish down and close below certain weekly MAs before a bounce can ensue. 3 down weeks off the top.

    The euro, aussie, and crude oil were all down on the day which didn’t make sense considering the action in the stock indices. When the bounce comes, they should all rally.

    • Gold and Silver are both in a bear market and should continue lower for awhile. Silver broke down from support 2 weeks ago, which now is resistance. If was from the double bottom area around 17.70 or so. It could easily fall to the 15 area.

      GLD hit it’s previous double bottom area last Friday. It’s right on the support line and will likely breakdown this week. It really doesn’t have any big support just below it. Over the coming month it could fall to the 90 area where support will come in from the 2008/2009 area.

      Short term it could (should) chop around this week trying to hold that double bottom area (now a triple bottom) in the 114.70 area. Once it breaks the first level down of minor support is 113.08 from 7/28/2010. After that it doesn’t have much until the 105 area.

    • Also, both metals are affected by the dollar rally. It’s near a double top on the weekly chart in the 86.81 area. Once it hit’s that resistance and pulls back the metals should rally. Just note that while the dollar is very overbought on the weekly (and daily) chart that double top area will act like a magnet for it which will keep downward pressure on the metals until that top is hit and a pullback happens for the dollar.

      http://stockcharts.com/public/1092905/chartbook/286102634;

      When it pulls back the metals should rally. It’s at extremely levels now as seen in this daily chart. http://stockcharts.com/public/1092905/chartbook/286102634;

      But as you can see from that chart the rally last Friday was strong and was probably caused from a short squeeze of a lot of bears’ stop’s just above the 86 area. With such a big move up there should be some sideways consolidation this week before another push higher I’d think.

      That means GLD and SLV could chop sideways making a bear flag all week before another drop happens for them as the dollar makes a bull flag and breaks up again with the goal of hitting the double top on the weekly chart. It doesn’t look like it wants to stop right now and I wouldn’t short it until it pierces that 86.81 level by a hair.

  87. Technical Analysis is mixed here but leans toward another push up tomorrow before rolling over and going down again. However, since the futures trade afterhours and premarket the SPX could simply open down first and make a lower low then today’s low. Then I’d expect the charts to get oversold and the market to turn back up later in the day.

    It could go either way but if Tuesday goes up early I think it’s a short as it has high odds of turning back down. If it goes down first then later in the day it should turn back up. Either way we’ll likely see whatever the first half of the day do turn the other way the 2nd half of the day. Not much help there but charts are mixed as I said.

    However, “if” it gaps up I think there’s high odds of a move down until Thursday or Friday before a low is put in. Therefore a good swing trade could present itself Tuesday if we go up first?

  88. Today is called “Turnaround Tuesday” by many floor traders because of it’s habit of turning around from one direction early in the day to the other direction later in the day. If that plays out again today then the bounce back up before the next big drop should happen in the last half of today.

    It has been a strong wave down this morning so I don’t know how much of a bounce we’ll see but bears that missed this move down should get another chance to get short later today I think. But overall it looks pretty good for another visit down to last week’s low of 1926 SPX… if not lower?

  89. “Could” bounce the rest of today and into the FOMC meeting Wednesday? It’s just a prior reading of the last meeting but traders still hang on and wait to take a position long or short until they hear what is said (again) it seems.

    Therefore the low we have today could hold until after 2pm tomorrow. I see in the technicals of the charts that we could rally (choppy though) the rest of today and into early Wednesday. However, the low is very likely NOT in yet. I think we’ll drop again and take out the 1926 low and possibly the 1905 low very soon… probably by the end of this week.

    That implies the Yellen says nothing positive at this meeting and the market then just reacts on a technical (and Elliottwave) bases… which indicates a larger wave C down that takes out the current low.

    Next week though is option expiration week and we should rally most of it like we always seem to do. The market makers won’t pay out on all the put holders that are short as we all know they like to steal your money not pay you out. Therefore the reason is clear to the rally and the expected low this Thursday/Friday.

  90. Double bottom area of 1926 SPX should lead to a 20-30 point bounce. Then we drop again to hit and pierce the prior low of 1905 SPX. I’m looking for 1890-1900 as a short term bottom.

      • LOL… you’re not kidding there! Thank goodness I didn’t short it. Clearly it was too strong and too fast of a move to stand in front of. I think the wave count “may” have changed now? This chart (from someone else) shows what I’m thinking as well.

        http://www.61point8.com/Portals/0/article%20images/20141008/20141008NDX1.png

        On the SPX I’d put the “line in the sand” at 1985 area. A move above it and the low is most likely in. Right now I’ll give it a 50/50 chance of the current 1925 low holding. This move up looks fast and furious just like last Thursday and Friday did, so while the 2nd time around may fool us bears and continue higher I’m not convinced yet that the selling is done.

        They squeezed a ton of bears today as I noticed very heavy volume on the SPY during the last couple of hours when the big squeezed happened. I’m not sure how many bears are left above the current level to squeeze? I’m sure there is a lot above that 1985 area but does the market have enough juice to go up from today’s close?

        I’m on the sidelines for now to see what happens but if we gap up tomorrow and stay below the 1985 area I’d look to short it for at least a 20 point move back down… if not more? While I don’t know if we’ll get our flush out move to the downside and break 1905 any gap up tomorrow should be worth 10 points minimum on the downside I’d think.

        If we gap down (not likely) I’d wait to see what happens. In the past they will have some gap up exhaustion move but there’s nothing to say it’s going to happen tomorrow. Maybe it happens on Friday? Mainly I’m just happy to have NOT be caught short in that squeeze… LOL

        • Thanks. Hell of a battle we’ve got going here. Down 275 yesterday…up 275 today. But we found out today the FED still has at least a few tricks up their sleeve. They don’t like the Dow much below 17,000 at all. I think if we’re going to get lower by much,say below SPX 1900..we’re really going to have to get some good back to back down days in a row within 2 weeks tops.

          • I’ll be looking to short tomorrow. Not sure where it will go to but even if it’s not the big wave down there should at least be a 10-20 point pullback. I’m still 50/50 on the big C wave down versus a pullback wave and then another move up next week. But I’ll short it anyway and let the cards fall where they may…

  91. Could this time really be different? I don’t think so… Why? Because of that rising trendline of support on the weekly chart from 2011 still isn’t broken. When it breaks I really think we are going fall off a cliff. It’s a 3 year support for the bulls and when the dam breaks all hell should follow.

    http://stockcharts.com/public/1092905/chartbook/312846787

    Looking at the chart it’s true that the RSI hasn’t went below 50 yet and commonly bounces in the 50-55 area. Then the MACD is still up around 30-35 and commonly turns back up in that range, so it could do so again?

    At the bottom of that chart the Full STO’s are pointing down and near the 50 level where they (again) commonly turn back up… which means there’s still no conformation of P4 down (in my opinion).

    However, the bearish candle pattern from last weeks close (gravestone doji) signal’s weakness, and “if” the bulls hold the line again by this Friday’s close they will have a 2nd gravestone doji candle… so cracks in dam are certainly appearing and I just don’t think Janet Yellen has enough fingers to plug them all. (Maybe Ben Bernanke will let her borrow some of his 10 fingers and 10 toes?).

    Let’s also look at the monthly chart…

    http://stockcharts.com/public/1092905/chartbook/202363337;

    Not much to point out there that isn’t obvious. The RSI broke rising support, and the MACD’s are almost touching with one ready to cross over the other. Then below that the ROC is pointing down, the previous month of September hit the top trendline of the rising channel and go rejected, and finally the MACD Histogram bars are ready to go negative,

    Nothing is guaranteed of course but the upside from here sure looks limited to me..

  92. Gold and Silver have reversed hard since the dollar topped out and tanked. They are both still in a bearish pattern on the monthly chart though, but sure are bouncing nicely.

  93. I exited all shorts a little bit ago. I’m just not feeling that strong anymore about yesterday’s low being broken this week. The last 20 out of 30 Friday’s the week prior to the monthly option expiration week (next Friday) have closed up and the following Monday has been up 23 of the last 30.

    With that stupid annoying rising trendline of support on the weekly chart from 2011 being the 1955-1960 SPX zone these bulls still might not let go of it again this week. If we gap down tomorrow I’ll be looking to scale into longs into next week starting at each prior bottom… meaning 1926 and 1905 SPX.

  94. Yesterday’s blistering rally saw 292 new 52 week lows on the NYSE which was a 52 week or yearly high which suggested that yesterday’s rise was very dubious. Albeit the lows occurred prior to liftoff. Anyway, a component of a certain little indicator rose nearly to the 0 line which suggested that the rally was also on shaky ground plus the fact that the prior peak or the 50 day average had been exceeded.

    The certain little indicator is now accelerating downward in the crash zone. I really don’t see a crash here but one has to be wary because I would expect the market to fool everyone including me. We’ll have to keep an eye on a certain little indicator and its component as they head to oversold levels. I did get out of a weekly position today for fear of another whipsaw so I could see the market just continuing to meltdown. It’s hard to tell if the market peak should be counted as 9-19 since the Dow,SP, Nasdaq topped there or somewhere else as the New York Composite, Russell 2000, European indices topped out earlier and could be in their 3rd wave declines.

    Weekly bollinger bands are still tightening for the prime indices with the lower BB providing some sort of resistance.

    • New lows on the NYSE actually declined today and they certained managed to close most indices right at yesterday’s lows leaving reasonable doubt for market’s current predicament. The Nasdaq did not get to yesterday’s lows.

  95. Well I guess he word “WOW’ for what happened today would be an understatement, Rock, N’ Roll. Re-test of SPX 1905 ,here we come.

    • Once we get a break of 1905 (where I think it will find a bounce within 10 points or so lower) I’d give us 95% odds of having a minimum of a 20% correction by March of 2015. A full out crash is still a maybe? Just don’t know about that.

      • Looks like we’re going to find out about the 1905 part of it real soon. And a week ago..I didn’t think ebola could be a long term negative economic factor. Now I’m thinking it’s quite possible it might. Bad shit there. Folks cancelling flights and cruises and other stuff all over the world.

  96. The occultic film of the year Gone Girl has opened but really don’t have time to do a reveiw/analysis. The obvious GG in the title ala Great Gatsby for 77. David Fincher outdoing himself in this one. Even more grand ritual specific occultic than the Social Network.

    The number 11 and especially 22 are highlighted in this movie. Need to see it again and take notes.

    I never really focused on 22 until recently but it is 22 years from the Bradley date and Moneyball took place in 2002 with references to it reverberating around this year’s MLB season since the Moneyball A’s had the best record in baseball for quite a bit of the season before suffering an epic meltdown aking to their Moneyball winning streak in 2002. The A’s were chased by their division rival Angels who eventually surpassed them to finish with the best record in baseball. They were the eventual world champions in 2002. But they were eliminated this week in the first round of the playoffs.

  97. While it’s possible they go back down one more time and touch the 200dma at 1905.31 SPX on the daily chart and either pierce it to make a lower low to fill the ES Futures 1890 low from August I’m leaning toward the low being in now and a choppy rally up the rest of the day and into Monday.

    The heaviest selling pressure is usually in the first one or two hours and since it’s 11am now I get the feeling it’s about dried up. The noon time period could allow the market to float up some and hold the current low. While everyone is looking for that prior SPX low of 1904.78 to be taken out I find it’s common to either fall short of a target or pierce through it.

    This time I think we are going to fall short of this target. This opens the door for another move down within a week or two to finally break it. However, on the next move down it should go past it quite a bit as it will be the 3rd time down and a pierce only it’s likely to happen.

    I’ll be looking for the next level of support down in the1800’s to be the target once it breaks it. For now though I’m short term bullish for about a week with next Monday likely being up the strongest.

    • Hopefully no one took me serious on going long MCHP after it gaped down. As for the market we sure look like we flushed out today into the close. While we could (and should) gap down Monday I suspect it will reverse hard as the ES Future will have re-hit the 1890 low from August.

      And the SPX will likely pierce through it’s current low and bounce too as it puts in a double bottom. There’s the 200dma at 1905.35 and the prior low at 1904.78, so surely they will hit them and possibly pierce through them and the even number 1900 level to lure in the last bear.

      Then we should see our bounce into the rest of the week. I’m not looking for a lot but 1950-1960 is possible. There are a ton of puts expiring in the 195 and 190 strike prices this coming Friday that the market makers won’t likely want to pay out. I’d estimate there are 5 to 10 times the normal amount of puts at those levels and more then normal at other levels too.

      Monday the market is open but bonds aren’t because it’s a holiday. It’s Columbus Day so the volume should be light in the 2nd half of the day and only heavy at the open when everyone expects it to crash. Naturally if everyone expects it to happen it’s not likely going to. But the weeks following this coming week I expect the market to fall off a cliff.

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