I see one more move down tomorrow and then I think we’ll bottom and rally for awhile. The market opened on January 2nd of this year at 1845 SPX and we hit and pierced that today. Then we rallied from it. It should be some kind of support zone I think.
Also, the XIV double bottomed today from February’s low this year. It’s the opposite of the VIX. That is also a signal of a short term bottom I think. Again, possibly one more low tomorrow and then a rally. How high is anyone’s guess but with that FP on the SPY of 202.45 lurking out there I do think it’s possible that they hit it at some point.
Will it be in the next few weeks or next year… I don’t know? But if it’s hit I’d really become very, very bearish again… especially if it’s hit very fast, like 2-3 weeks! Remember, SkyNet reads ALL internet post, tweet’s, comments, etc… and learns how to lead the bulls and bears down the wrong path.
Well, when I saw that NFLX was actually up late in the day, I resisted my urge to get out of short term positions. I haven’t looked at after-hours futures but I cant say things look promising tomorrow with NFLX down 25% after-hours.
Today’s lows were going to be tested at a minimum anyway. New lows hit 600 today on NYSE. I am looking for 900-1000 for tomorrow. Then maybe a final low Friday? I don’t really know since the indices are below their weekly BBs except the Nasdaq. We’ll have to watch on a day by day basis. A certain little indicator is trucking on down through the crash zone but it is not at an extreme level yet nor is it’s component which actually rose today (albeit minimally).
Possibly one more lower low tomorrow I think and then a rally. My estimated top is 202.45 SPY (about 2024.50 SPX)… which of course is against any B wave up theory. But SkyNet WILL NOT make it easy to pick the next important top.
By “B wave up” I mean that most Elliottwave people see this entire move down as one large wave A and then your typical B wave up is usually some Fib. Level like 50% or so. But SkyNet knows that too, and therefore won’t likely take it there and then really collapse into a massive “crash” C wave down.
Either we go up very shallow to possibly 23.6% (which should take several weeks of chop) or double top it and then tank. I don’t know which but I’m thinking that way too many people are “extremely” bearish now and will remain so for several weeks from now. So SkyNet will keep hitting “buy stops” as it rallies up with more and more bears trying to pick the next top just like the bulls are getting their “sell stops” hit trying to pick a bottom.
Not likely a strong rally this week from the looks of things (small rally maybe?). I guess all those “put” options bought in the 190 and 195 strike prices back 3 weeks ago really was insiders after all.
When I spotted it I was very suspicious of it being insiders but I’ve been so programmed to expect the market makers to manipulate the market to make them expire worthless that I ignored the writing on the wall. It very clear now that insiders bought those puts.
I see one more move down tomorrow and then I think we’ll bottom and rally for awhile. The market opened on January 2nd of this year at 1845 SPX and we hit and pierced that today. Then we rallied from it. It should be some kind of support zone I think.
Also, the XIV double bottomed today from February’s low this year. It’s the opposite of the VIX. That is also a signal of a short term bottom I think. Again, possibly one more low tomorrow and then a rally. How high is anyone’s guess but with that FP on the SPY of 202.45 lurking out there I do think it’s possible that they hit it at some point.
Will it be in the next few weeks or next year… I don’t know? But if it’s hit I’d really become very, very bearish again… especially if it’s hit very fast, like 2-3 weeks! Remember, SkyNet reads ALL internet post, tweet’s, comments, etc… and learns how to lead the bulls and bears down the wrong path.
Well, when I saw that NFLX was actually up late in the day, I resisted my urge to get out of short term positions. I haven’t looked at after-hours futures but I cant say things look promising tomorrow with NFLX down 25% after-hours.
Today’s lows were going to be tested at a minimum anyway. New lows hit 600 today on NYSE. I am looking for 900-1000 for tomorrow. Then maybe a final low Friday? I don’t really know since the indices are below their weekly BBs except the Nasdaq. We’ll have to watch on a day by day basis. A certain little indicator is trucking on down through the crash zone but it is not at an extreme level yet nor is it’s component which actually rose today (albeit minimally).
Possibly one more lower low tomorrow I think and then a rally. My estimated top is 202.45 SPY (about 2024.50 SPX)… which of course is against any B wave up theory. But SkyNet WILL NOT make it easy to pick the next important top.
By “B wave up” I mean that most Elliottwave people see this entire move down as one large wave A and then your typical B wave up is usually some Fib. Level like 50% or so. But SkyNet knows that too, and therefore won’t likely take it there and then really collapse into a massive “crash” C wave down.
Either we go up very shallow to possibly 23.6% (which should take several weeks of chop) or double top it and then tank. I don’t know which but I’m thinking that way too many people are “extremely” bearish now and will remain so for several weeks from now. So SkyNet will keep hitting “buy stops” as it rallies up with more and more bears trying to pick the next top just like the bulls are getting their “sell stops” hit trying to pick a bottom.
so bounce tomorrow or look out below for a couple more days. The million dollar question!
Not likely a strong rally this week from the looks of things (small rally maybe?). I guess all those “put” options bought in the 190 and 195 strike prices back 3 weeks ago really was insiders after all.
When I spotted it I was very suspicious of it being insiders but I’ve been so programmed to expect the market makers to manipulate the market to make them expire worthless that I ignored the writing on the wall. It very clear now that insiders bought those puts.
Looks like a “capitulation” day! I suspect the bottom is for awhile and we’ll start a rally for a few days to weeks.
Gold Weekly support zone: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2014/10/gold-weekly-support-zone-and-trend.html
TVIX Update (suggest the market will go down more first before a real bounce happens): http://screencast.com/t/kAaqeKbS
SPX Death Cross coming up soon: http://screencast.com/t/FAoztZn0IAO
Sorry about the video being locked on the new post guys. I accidentally set it to private when it should have been set to public so everyone could see it. I fixed it now. Try it again (http://reddragonleo.com/2014/10/12/will-there-be-a-stock-market-crash-in-2014)