New lows on the NYSE actually declined today and they certained managed to close most indices right at yesterday’s lows leaving reasonable doubt for market’s current predicament. The Nasdaq did not get to yesterday’s lows.
Yesterday’s blistering rally saw 292 new 52 week lows on the NYSE which was a 52 week or yearly high which suggested that yesterday’s rise was very dubious. Albeit the lows occurred prior to liftoff. Anyway, a component of a certain little indicator rose nearly to the 0 line which suggested that the rally was also on shaky ground plus the fact that the prior peak or the 50 day average had been exceeded.
The certain little indicator is now accelerating downward in the crash zone. I really don’t see a crash here but one has to be wary because I would expect the market to fool everyone including me. We’ll have to keep an eye on a certain little indicator and its component as they head to oversold levels. I did get out of a weekly position today for fear of another whipsaw so I could see the market just continuing to meltdown. It’s hard to tell if the market peak should be counted as 9-19 since the Dow,SP, Nasdaq topped there or somewhere else as the New York Composite, Russell 2000, European indices topped out earlier and could be in their 3rd wave declines.
Weekly bollinger bands are still tightening for the prime indices with the lower BB providing some sort of resistance.
I exited all shorts a little bit ago. I’m just not feeling that strong anymore about yesterday’s low being broken this week. The last 20 out of 30 Friday’s the week prior to the monthly option expiration week (next Friday) have closed up and the following Monday has been up 23 of the last 30.
With that stupid annoying rising trendline of support on the weekly chart from 2011 being the 1955-1960 SPX zone these bulls still might not let go of it again this week. If we gap down tomorrow I’ll be looking to scale into longs into next week starting at each prior bottom… meaning 1926 and 1905 SPX.
Gold and Silver have reversed hard since the dollar topped out and tanked. They are both still in a bearish pattern on the monthly chart though, but sure are bouncing nicely.
Could this time really be different? I don’t think so… Why? Because of that rising trendline of support on the weekly chart from 2011 still isn’t broken. When it breaks I really think we are going fall off a cliff. It’s a 3 year support for the bulls and when the dam breaks all hell should follow.
Looking at the chart it’s true that the RSI hasn’t went below 50 yet and commonly bounces in the 50-55 area. Then the MACD is still up around 30-35 and commonly turns back up in that range, so it could do so again?
At the bottom of that chart the Full STO’s are pointing down and near the 50 level where they (again) commonly turn back up… which means there’s still no conformation of P4 down (in my opinion).
However, the bearish candle pattern from last weeks close (gravestone doji) signal’s weakness, and “if” the bulls hold the line again by this Friday’s close they will have a 2nd gravestone doji candle… so cracks in dam are certainly appearing and I just don’t think Janet Yellen has enough fingers to plug them all. (Maybe Ben Bernanke will let her borrow some of his 10 fingers and 10 toes?).
Not much to point out there that isn’t obvious. The RSI broke rising support, and the MACD’s are almost touching with one ready to cross over the other. Then below that the ROC is pointing down, the previous month of September hit the top trendline of the rising channel and go rejected, and finally the MACD Histogram bars are ready to go negative,
Nothing is guaranteed of course but the upside from here sure looks limited to me..
I’ll be looking to short tomorrow. Not sure where it will go to but even if it’s not the big wave down there should at least be a 10-20 point pullback. I’m still 50/50 on the big C wave down versus a pullback wave and then another move up next week. But I’ll short it anyway and let the cards fall where they may…
Thanks. Hell of a battle we’ve got going here. Down 275 yesterday…up 275 today. But we found out today the FED still has at least a few tricks up their sleeve. They don’t like the Dow much below 17,000 at all. I think if we’re going to get lower by much,say below SPX 1900..we’re really going to have to get some good back to back down days in a row within 2 weeks tops.
LOL… you’re not kidding there! Thank goodness I didn’t short it. Clearly it was too strong and too fast of a move to stand in front of. I think the wave count “may” have changed now? This chart (from someone else) shows what I’m thinking as well.
On the SPX I’d put the “line in the sand” at 1985 area. A move above it and the low is most likely in. Right now I’ll give it a 50/50 chance of the current 1925 low holding. This move up looks fast and furious just like last Thursday and Friday did, so while the 2nd time around may fool us bears and continue higher I’m not convinced yet that the selling is done.
They squeezed a ton of bears today as I noticed very heavy volume on the SPY during the last couple of hours when the big squeezed happened. I’m not sure how many bears are left above the current level to squeeze? I’m sure there is a lot above that 1985 area but does the market have enough juice to go up from today’s close?
I’m on the sidelines for now to see what happens but if we gap up tomorrow and stay below the 1985 area I’d look to short it for at least a 20 point move back down… if not more? While I don’t know if we’ll get our flush out move to the downside and break 1905 any gap up tomorrow should be worth 10 points minimum on the downside I’d think.
If we gap down (not likely) I’d wait to see what happens. In the past they will have some gap up exhaustion move but there’s nothing to say it’s going to happen tomorrow. Maybe it happens on Friday? Mainly I’m just happy to have NOT be caught short in that squeeze… LOL
New lows on the NYSE actually declined today and they certained managed to close most indices right at yesterday’s lows leaving reasonable doubt for market’s current predicament. The Nasdaq did not get to yesterday’s lows.
Yesterday’s blistering rally saw 292 new 52 week lows on the NYSE which was a 52 week or yearly high which suggested that yesterday’s rise was very dubious. Albeit the lows occurred prior to liftoff. Anyway, a component of a certain little indicator rose nearly to the 0 line which suggested that the rally was also on shaky ground plus the fact that the prior peak or the 50 day average had been exceeded.
The certain little indicator is now accelerating downward in the crash zone. I really don’t see a crash here but one has to be wary because I would expect the market to fool everyone including me. We’ll have to keep an eye on a certain little indicator and its component as they head to oversold levels. I did get out of a weekly position today for fear of another whipsaw so I could see the market just continuing to meltdown. It’s hard to tell if the market peak should be counted as 9-19 since the Dow,SP, Nasdaq topped there or somewhere else as the New York Composite, Russell 2000, European indices topped out earlier and could be in their 3rd wave declines.
Weekly bollinger bands are still tightening for the prime indices with the lower BB providing some sort of resistance.
I exited all shorts a little bit ago. I’m just not feeling that strong anymore about yesterday’s low being broken this week. The last 20 out of 30 Friday’s the week prior to the monthly option expiration week (next Friday) have closed up and the following Monday has been up 23 of the last 30.
With that stupid annoying rising trendline of support on the weekly chart from 2011 being the 1955-1960 SPX zone these bulls still might not let go of it again this week. If we gap down tomorrow I’ll be looking to scale into longs into next week starting at each prior bottom… meaning 1926 and 1905 SPX.
Gold and Silver have reversed hard since the dollar topped out and tanked. They are both still in a bearish pattern on the monthly chart though, but sure are bouncing nicely.
Could this time really be different? I don’t think so… Why? Because of that rising trendline of support on the weekly chart from 2011 still isn’t broken. When it breaks I really think we are going fall off a cliff. It’s a 3 year support for the bulls and when the dam breaks all hell should follow.
http://stockcharts.com/public/1092905/chartbook/312846787
Looking at the chart it’s true that the RSI hasn’t went below 50 yet and commonly bounces in the 50-55 area. Then the MACD is still up around 30-35 and commonly turns back up in that range, so it could do so again?
At the bottom of that chart the Full STO’s are pointing down and near the 50 level where they (again) commonly turn back up… which means there’s still no conformation of P4 down (in my opinion).
However, the bearish candle pattern from last weeks close (gravestone doji) signal’s weakness, and “if” the bulls hold the line again by this Friday’s close they will have a 2nd gravestone doji candle… so cracks in dam are certainly appearing and I just don’t think Janet Yellen has enough fingers to plug them all. (Maybe Ben Bernanke will let her borrow some of his 10 fingers and 10 toes?).
Let’s also look at the monthly chart…
http://stockcharts.com/public/1092905/chartbook/202363337;
Not much to point out there that isn’t obvious. The RSI broke rising support, and the MACD’s are almost touching with one ready to cross over the other. Then below that the ROC is pointing down, the previous month of September hit the top trendline of the rising channel and go rejected, and finally the MACD Histogram bars are ready to go negative,
Nothing is guaranteed of course but the upside from here sure looks limited to me..
I’ll be looking to short tomorrow. Not sure where it will go to but even if it’s not the big wave down there should at least be a 10-20 point pullback. I’m still 50/50 on the big C wave down versus a pullback wave and then another move up next week. But I’ll short it anyway and let the cards fall where they may…
Thanks. Hell of a battle we’ve got going here. Down 275 yesterday…up 275 today. But we found out today the FED still has at least a few tricks up their sleeve. They don’t like the Dow much below 17,000 at all. I think if we’re going to get lower by much,say below SPX 1900..we’re really going to have to get some good back to back down days in a row within 2 weeks tops.
Some past history of what happened after large rallies up: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BzdgO5yCQAEdN81.jpg:large
LOL… you’re not kidding there! Thank goodness I didn’t short it. Clearly it was too strong and too fast of a move to stand in front of. I think the wave count “may” have changed now? This chart (from someone else) shows what I’m thinking as well.
http://www.61point8.com/Portals/0/article%20images/20141008/20141008NDX1.png
On the SPX I’d put the “line in the sand” at 1985 area. A move above it and the low is most likely in. Right now I’ll give it a 50/50 chance of the current 1925 low holding. This move up looks fast and furious just like last Thursday and Friday did, so while the 2nd time around may fool us bears and continue higher I’m not convinced yet that the selling is done.
They squeezed a ton of bears today as I noticed very heavy volume on the SPY during the last couple of hours when the big squeezed happened. I’m not sure how many bears are left above the current level to squeeze? I’m sure there is a lot above that 1985 area but does the market have enough juice to go up from today’s close?
I’m on the sidelines for now to see what happens but if we gap up tomorrow and stay below the 1985 area I’d look to short it for at least a 20 point move back down… if not more? While I don’t know if we’ll get our flush out move to the downside and break 1905 any gap up tomorrow should be worth 10 points minimum on the downside I’d think.
If we gap down (not likely) I’d wait to see what happens. In the past they will have some gap up exhaustion move but there’s nothing to say it’s going to happen tomorrow. Maybe it happens on Friday? Mainly I’m just happy to have NOT be caught short in that squeeze… LOL
Might need another ‘after the close’ update after “that” close. 😉