From the 1998 SPX bounce high yesterday a 1.618% move down of wave 1 for this wave 3 that we started today puts the low of this wave around 1933 before we bounce for wave 4 up. It could happen tomorrow? I just don’t know?
Or, if this wave 3 down is a 2.618% move of the wave 1 down (2019.26-1978.80—40.46 points) then it’s a 105 point drop from that 1998 high. Either way we should be going down more before we bounce.
How it plays out I’m not sure? It could chop around some tomorrow after the gap down and rally back up some to make some smaller wave 2 or wave 4 up inside the larger wave 3 down. Remember, that wave 3 down should have 5 smaller waves inside it. Sometimes the bounces are so small that you miss them.
So we could have only had the smaller wave 1 down today and the choppy sideways action into the close was the smaller wave 2. If so then we are looking for a smaller wave 3 down tomorrow inside the larger wave 3 down. However, if that’s the wave pattern then it suggests we make a 2.618% Fib move of the larger wave 1 down not the 1.618% Fib points implied above.
I do not know which one will play out as I really can’t count the waves right now as it looks like one big wave down with no real bounces. So the whole wave could be just the first smaller wave 1 down inside the larger wave 3 down. That suggests a smaller wave 2 up tomorrow to close the market green as it should rebound at least 23.6% of the move down from the 1998 high yesterday to the low today at the close or tomorrow morning.
Regardless, I would not be buying and dips anytime soon as we’ve likely just started the first part of the coming crash of 2014!
Gang, let’s face it. When they finally decide to crash this thing we aren’t going to get many bounces. For all I know we could have already had the wave 2 up and we’ll tank even further tomorrow?
I think we started the first wave 1 down today inside a larger wave 3 down. After the ABC wave 2 is finished we should start the wave 3 of 3 down. It should drop 40+ points in one day. I don’t know when the wave 2 up will end but considering that tomorrow is Friday and Monday is
usually a light volume day it could last all the way into Tuesday morning?
Or it could take only one day (today) and tank back down again on Friday? Don’t know for sure but I suspect we’ll go up for the A wave (inside wave 2 up of 3 down) the rest of today. Then down some tomorrow for the B wave (inside wave 2 up of 3 down)… leaving the C wave up to
complete wave 2 for Monday. After that we should really tank hard in the 3 of 3 down.
Looks like we are going to bounce for a day or two. I wouldn’t short this today as we need a positive close I think, which means it could (should) continue into tomorrow as well. So for now I think the selling is over for a few days but should return later this week and into early next week.
We’re likely to bounce but not as far as you may think. I was previously looking for around 2000 SPX but now I’m only expecting 1980-1990 area before rolling over again. We are in the beginning stages of a crash I think.
From the 1998 SPX bounce high yesterday a 1.618% move down of wave 1 for this wave 3 that we started today puts the low of this wave around 1933 before we bounce for wave 4 up. It could happen tomorrow? I just don’t know?
Or, if this wave 3 down is a 2.618% move of the wave 1 down (2019.26-1978.80—40.46 points) then it’s a 105 point drop from that 1998 high. Either way we should be going down more before we bounce.
How it plays out I’m not sure? It could chop around some tomorrow after the gap down and rally back up some to make some smaller wave 2 or wave 4 up inside the larger wave 3 down. Remember, that wave 3 down should have 5 smaller waves inside it. Sometimes the bounces are so small that you miss them.
So we could have only had the smaller wave 1 down today and the choppy sideways action into the close was the smaller wave 2. If so then we are looking for a smaller wave 3 down tomorrow inside the larger wave 3 down. However, if that’s the wave pattern then it suggests we make a 2.618% Fib move of the larger wave 1 down not the 1.618% Fib points implied above.
I do not know which one will play out as I really can’t count the waves right now as it looks like one big wave down with no real bounces. So the whole wave could be just the first smaller wave 1 down inside the larger wave 3 down. That suggests a smaller wave 2 up tomorrow to close the market green as it should rebound at least 23.6% of the move down from the 1998 high yesterday to the low today at the close or tomorrow morning.
Regardless, I would not be buying and dips anytime soon as we’ve likely just started the first part of the coming crash of 2014!
No bounce coming… gap down tomorrow
Or tank tomorrow? Not looking good for any bounces now….
Maybe they tank it on Monday. 9-29
Gang, let’s face it. When they finally decide to crash this thing we aren’t going to get many bounces. For all I know we could have already had the wave 2 up and we’ll tank even further tomorrow?
SPX Market Update: http://screencast.com/t/N4MpYvin5e
I think we started the first wave 1 down today inside a larger wave 3 down. After the ABC wave 2 is finished we should start the wave 3 of 3 down. It should drop 40+ points in one day. I don’t know when the wave 2 up will end but considering that tomorrow is Friday and Monday is
usually a light volume day it could last all the way into Tuesday morning?
Or it could take only one day (today) and tank back down again on Friday? Don’t know for sure but I suspect we’ll go up for the A wave (inside wave 2 up of 3 down) the rest of today. Then down some tomorrow for the B wave (inside wave 2 up of 3 down)… leaving the C wave up to
complete wave 2 for Monday. After that we should really tank hard in the 3 of 3 down.
Quick 5 minute market update: http://screencast.com/t/ZJiUQvKBmgd
Looks like we are going to bounce for a day or two. I wouldn’t short this today as we need a positive close I think, which means it could (should) continue into tomorrow as well. So for now I think the selling is over for a few days but should return later this week and into early next week.
We’re likely to bounce but not as far as you may think. I was previously looking for around 2000 SPX but now I’m only expecting 1980-1990 area before rolling over again. We are in the beginning stages of a crash I think.