Makes sense to have one more higher high within the next 30 days to hit my FP on the NYA of 11,330 (about 2050-2055 SPX). So we probably drop some next week and the week after and then back up to that FP?
Red, the market put in a Hindenberg Omen yesterday. These are a combination of technical data points, that tend to mark market peaks. The idea however is that you need a confirming H.O, meaning another one within the next 30 days to validate it. Then if you get a second H.O in the required time frame, you are officially on “crash watch” and that lasts for about 4 months. I am looking for 20% haircut in the next 4 months.
Alibaba should put in it’s high today as it unloads it’s paper to the sheep. It should look like Facebook did back in 2012 when it opened, put in it’s high and never got back above it until 15 months later.
If Alibaba had options I’d short it today as it’s almost a guaranteed winner if you could. But they won’t allow you to do that as we all know. It’s a sucks play to buy it in my opinion. Once it’s done we should see the market top and start pulling back into Monday.
CBOE skew index (black swan event predictor) is at 52 week high………actually over 3 year high….
Red – Good Call!
Are/have you bought puts ?
to go long market
Possible FP on the SPY of 202.45… which we could hit on some rally up right after Alibaba goes live.
Buy zone for what? The TVIX or some long on the market?
yes my buy zone is around the next employment report for a bottom.
Makes sense to have one more higher high within the next 30 days to hit my FP on the NYA of 11,330 (about 2050-2055 SPX). So we probably drop some next week and the week after and then back up to that FP?
Took some TVIX @ 2.539
Red, the market put in a Hindenberg Omen yesterday. These are a combination of technical data points, that tend to mark market peaks. The idea however is that you need a confirming H.O, meaning another one within the next 30 days to validate it. Then if you get a second H.O in the required time frame, you are officially on “crash watch” and that lasts for about 4 months. I am looking for 20% haircut in the next 4 months.
Alibaba should put in it’s high today as it unloads it’s paper to the sheep. It should look like Facebook did back in 2012 when it opened, put in it’s high and never got back above it until 15 months later.
If Alibaba had options I’d short it today as it’s almost a guaranteed winner if you could. But they won’t allow you to do that as we all know. It’s a sucks play to buy it in my opinion. Once it’s done we should see the market top and start pulling back into Monday.