Soros is in the minority currently (but he can afford to be patient I am sure) – from Mr Topstep a few days ago:
Yesterday the PitBull told me to look at the latest Investors Intelligence,
which showed only 13% bears, the lowest level since the ‘87 crash. We
all know everyone got very bullish after the most recent sell off and new
highs … but only 13% bears?That is a very scary statistic that even I, Mr. Permabull, was shocked to see.
Amy, it “could” extend up to around 2050-2055 per a FP I have on the NYA that shows 11,330… which is about equal to that 2050 area on the SPX. But “time wise” and past history tells me that we should have a low next week, not a high.
As I re-quoted many times (from the PitBull on Mr. TopStep) the week prior to options expiration week is commonly the week were a low is put in. It’s usually on the Thursday or Friday, which is this coming week.
The market makers do that to get shake out all the “call” holders that are long the monthly options for September (which always expire the 3 Friday of every month). Then they rally back up into that expiration Friday to shake out the new “put” holders.
As for people short I disagree. I think shorts were squeezed out yesterday and that everyone is bullish. The Investor Sentiment is now only 13% Bears…. the lowest level since 1987.
Then there is everyone I hear that is looking for 2050, 2070, 2100-2200 year end. There is a “cup and handle” pattern, which is of course Bullish, and every bear see’s it… therefore they aren’t short. I don’t think anyone is short now.
Bears (and Bulls) see this as consolidation and are expecting much higher prices…. which of course shouldn’t happen because everyone is on the same page. I don’t see anyone bearish now. Even myself, as I have this FP on the NYA that implies around 2050 SPX area.
But I’m doubting if it is real now, as I have too many FP’s that have never been hit. misdirection possibly? Don’t know? Then there the eerie pattern appearing of how close we are tracking the 1929 chart.
Naturally it won’t be exact, but “similar” is still something one should pay attention to. If it continues to track it we’ll see a move down to around 1950-1955 to retest the lower rising trendline that’s been supporting the market since the 2011 low as seen on this weekly chart.
If we hit it next week then it should hold and rally back up early the following week, which is options expiration week. Then on Thursday or Friday of that week we should see the last high for that week (still lower then the current 2011 high) and a breakdown into Friday that will cause the market to close below that rising trendline on the weekly chart.
At that point I’m expecting a cliff dive into the first week of October with 1690-1700 being the target low. Everyone will be bearish then and we’ll here all the main stream media looking for a retest of the 2000 and 2007 highs at 1552 and 1576, but it shouldn’t happen.
We should rally back up from that 1690-1700 low. What happens after that I’ll save for another post.
Red, I am thinking 2038 – 2056 by next week. notice the numerology.
Everyone expecting a 9/11 events. Everyone I know are shorting the market for the last 2 weeks or so since Soros shorted about a billion dollar worth. There are no bulls left, either short or in cash. Anyhow, I always respect your view and you haven been right most of the time. kudos!!!
Good luck with that Amy. Everyone and their brother is long now and you know “they” never give you want you want or expect. Monday could open a little higher then the close today but not much. It should still be under the current high. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if Monday didn’t open down as I’m sure the bulls are fully onboard now.
Good call.
anyone know the timeline soros used on his short position?
anyone know the timeline soros used on his position?
I’m expecting a breakdown of the current support area of 1990 to happen tomorrow.
My thinking was the next FOMC meeting and how they have held and made sure the S&P is holding above 2000.
Red & Casey – I just saw the 13% bear and can’t believe what I read.
Anyhow, I guess we will see next week.
As always Red, I love to read your posts.
Soros is in the minority currently (but he can afford to be patient I am sure) – from Mr Topstep a few days ago:
Yesterday the PitBull told me to look at the latest Investors Intelligence,
which showed only 13% bears, the lowest level since the ‘87 crash. We
all know everyone got very bullish after the most recent sell off and new
highs … but only 13% bears?That is a very scary statistic that even I, Mr. Permabull, was shocked to see.
Amy, it “could” extend up to around 2050-2055 per a FP I have on the NYA that shows 11,330… which is about equal to that 2050 area on the SPX. But “time wise” and past history tells me that we should have a low next week, not a high.
As I re-quoted many times (from the PitBull on Mr. TopStep) the week prior to options expiration week is commonly the week were a low is put in. It’s usually on the Thursday or Friday, which is this coming week.
The market makers do that to get shake out all the “call” holders that are long the monthly options for September (which always expire the 3 Friday of every month). Then they rally back up into that expiration Friday to shake out the new “put” holders.
As for people short I disagree. I think shorts were squeezed out yesterday and that everyone is bullish. The Investor Sentiment is now only 13% Bears…. the lowest level since 1987.
Then there is everyone I hear that is looking for 2050, 2070, 2100-2200 year end. There is a “cup and handle” pattern, which is of course Bullish, and every bear see’s it… therefore they aren’t short. I don’t think anyone is short now.
Bears (and Bulls) see this as consolidation and are expecting much higher prices…. which of course shouldn’t happen because everyone is on the same page. I don’t see anyone bearish now. Even myself, as I have this FP on the NYA that implies around 2050 SPX area.
But I’m doubting if it is real now, as I have too many FP’s that have never been hit. misdirection possibly? Don’t know? Then there the eerie pattern appearing of how close we are tracking the 1929 chart.
Naturally it won’t be exact, but “similar” is still something one should pay attention to. If it continues to track it we’ll see a move down to around 1950-1955 to retest the lower rising trendline that’s been supporting the market since the 2011 low as seen on this weekly chart.
http://stockcharts.com/public/1092905/chartbook/312846787
If we hit it next week then it should hold and rally back up early the following week, which is options expiration week. Then on Thursday or Friday of that week we should see the last high for that week (still lower then the current 2011 high) and a breakdown into Friday that will cause the market to close below that rising trendline on the weekly chart.
At that point I’m expecting a cliff dive into the first week of October with 1690-1700 being the target low. Everyone will be bearish then and we’ll here all the main stream media looking for a retest of the 2000 and 2007 highs at 1552 and 1576, but it shouldn’t happen.
We should rally back up from that 1690-1700 low. What happens after that I’ll save for another post.
Red, I am thinking 2038 – 2056 by next week. notice the numerology.
Everyone expecting a 9/11 events. Everyone I know are shorting the market for the last 2 weeks or so since Soros shorted about a billion dollar worth. There are no bulls left, either short or in cash. Anyhow, I always respect your view and you haven been right most of the time. kudos!!!
Good luck with that Amy. Everyone and their brother is long now and you know “they” never give you want you want or expect. Monday could open a little higher then the close today but not much. It should still be under the current high. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if Monday didn’t open down as I’m sure the bulls are fully onboard now.
Hey Red, we are going to see 2070 – 2090 before end of Sep IMHO.